Las Vegas Housing Market Predictions Next 2 Years: Crash or Correction?

Thinking about buying or selling a house in Las Vegas? You're probably wondering what the future holds for the Las Vegas housing market in the next 2 years or so. The short answer? According to recent data, some modest declines are expected. Zillow's forecast projects a decrease of 1.2% in home values over the next year (June 2025 to June 2026). But before you panic or celebrate, let's dive deep into the numbers, the trends, and what it all really means for you. Forget the get-rich-quick schemes, we're talking real talk about the Las Vegas real estate scene.

Las Vegas Housing Market Predictions for the Next 2 Years: Will Prices Drop?

The Current Temperature of the Las Vegas Housing Market

Okay, so let's look at where we are right now (as of late July 2025). Here's a snapshot of the Las Vegas housing market:

• Average Home Value: $438,432
• Year-over-Year Change: Up 0.9%
• Homes for Sale: 12,936
• New Listings (July 2025): 3,290
• Median Sale to List Price Ratio (June 2025): 0.991
• Median Sale Price (June 2025): $431,917
• Median List Price (July 2025): $467,933
• Sales Over List Price (June 2025): 20.1%
• Sales Under List Price (June 2025): 55.8%
• Median Days to Pending (July 2025): 31 days

What does this all mean? Well, prices are still slightly up compared to last year. Basically, it's a more balanced market than we've seen in recent years.

One thing that stands out to me is the median days to pending. Homes are going under contract in about a month. That's not super speedy, suggesting that buyers are being more cautious, and there is less competition.

Forecasts for the Next 2 Years: What the Experts Predict

Okay, let's get to the heart of the matter: what's going to happen with home prices in Las Vegas over the next two years? The data suggests some softening in the market.

Here's a look at Zillow's forecasts:

Timeframe	Predicted Change
July 31, 2025	-0.4%
September 30, 2025	-1.2%
June 30, 2026	-1.2%

As you can see, Zillow is forecasting a slight decline in home values in the short term, extending into 2026. It's a modest drop, but it's a drop nonetheless.

How Does Las Vegas Compare to Other Nevada Markets?

It's important to put these forecasts into context. How is Las Vegas expected to perform compared to other cities in Nevada? Here's a comparison:

City	July 31, 2025	June 30, 2026
Reno	-0.4%	-2.1%
Fernley	-0.3%	-2.3%
Carson City	-0.1%	-1.4%
Elko	-0.2%	-2.4%
Pahrump	-0.3%	-1.6%
Gardnerville Ranchos	-0.1%	-2.4%
Fallon	-0.2%	-0.9%
Winnemucca	0.1%	0.2%
Las Vegas	-0.4%	-1.2%

Compared to other regions in Nevada, Las Vegas is neither the worst nor the best. Several areas are expected to see bigger declines, while Winnemucca is supposed to increase slightly.

National Trends and Expert Opinions

It's not just about what's happening in Las Vegas; we need to look at the bigger picture. What's going on nationally?

According to Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), things are looking up overall. He expects:

• Existing Home Sales: Up 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026
• New Home Sales: Up 10% in 2025 and 5% in 2026
• Median Home Prices: Up 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026
• Mortgage Rates: Averaging 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and 6.1% in 2026

So, nationally, the outlook is more optimistic than what Zillow is predicting for Las Vegas. Yun believes that lower mortgage rates will be the “magic bullet” to boost the real estate market.

Why the Discrepancy?

You might be wondering why there's a difference between the national forecast and the Las Vegas forecast. Here's my take:

• Local Market Conditions: Las Vegas is unique. Its economy relies heavily on tourism, and population growth has been a major driver of housing demand for years. If either of those factors changes, it can have a big impact.
• Affordability: Home prices in Las Vegas have risen significantly in recent years, making it harder for people to afford to buy. This could be contributing to the expected slowdown.

Will Home Prices Crash in Las Vegas?

That's the question on everyone's mind, right? Will we see a repeat of 2008?

Based on the data and expert analysis, I don't think so. A crash is unlikely. While prices might soften a bit, the factors that led to the previous crash (like predatory lending and overbuilding) aren't present today.

A Possible Forecast for 2026

While Zillow hasn't released its detailed projections for 2026, we can use the available info to make an educated guess. Given the expected trends, I'd say it's reasonable to expect the Las Vegas housing market to be:

• Relatively Stable: Slight price appreciations in the second half of the year.
• Slightly Below 2025 Prices: A small dip from 2025 values.
• Driven by Economic Factors: The health of the Las Vegas economy, unemployment rates, and interest rates will be crucial.

How Will Economic Trends Impact the Housing Market?

Speaking of the economy, let's dig deeper into how economic factors could affect the Las Vegas housing market.

• Unemployment: The unemployment rate in the Las Vegas area was 5.8% in June 2025 (not seasonally adjusted). That's higher than the national average. However, Nevada's unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) was 5.4% in July 2025. A consistently high unemployment rate could hurt the housing market by reducing the number of people who can afford to buy a home. It can also lead to more foreclosures.
• Job Growth: Las Vegas MSA saw an increase of 4,200 jobs (0.4%) from June to July 2025. However, the private sector lost 1,200 jobs in July 2025, continuing a trend of job losses. If job growth slows significantly, it could put downward pressure on home prices.
• Population Growth: The Las Vegas Valley has seen tremendous population growth over the past few decades. However, the rate of growth has started to slow. Slower population growth could mean less demand for housing.

Population Statistics (Metro Area):

• 2023 Population: 2,293,764
• Foreign-Born Residents (2023): Approx. 21.7%

Who Should Buy In The Next Two Years?

If you're prepared to make a purchase, it might be an excellent time for a first-time buyer to get into the market. The rates may be high, but not as high as they could peak. Inventory is also up, helping the people buying a home and the people selling, too.

My Personal Thoughts

Look, predicting the future is always tricky. But from what I can see, the Las Vegas housing market is unlikely to give us anything too exciting in the next couple of years. Don't expect a boom, but don't expect a crash either. If you're a buyer, have patience and keep your eyes open. If you're a seller, price your home competitively and be prepared to negotiate.

Ultimately, buying or selling a home is a personal decision that depends on your individual circumstances. Do your homework, talk to a real estate professional and make the best choice for you and your family.