Mortgage Rates Today, Dec 15: 30-Year Refinance Rate Drops by 3 Basis Points

On December 15, 2025, the waters of the mortgage market showed a slight ripple of good news for those looking to refinance, as the popular 30-year fixed refinance rate nudged down by 3 basis points to 6.69%, according to data released by Zillow. While this small dip might seem insignificant to some, it’s part of a larger puzzle that homeowners should pay close attention to if they’re considering adjusting their current mortgage.

This change signals a subtle shift, reminding us that even minor movements can impact long-term savings. Today’s mixed signals – with fixed rates easing slightly and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) climbing – highlight the ongoing need for careful consideration and shopping around.

Mortgage Rates Today, Dec 15: 30-Year Refinance Rate Drops by 3 Basis Points

What the Numbers Tell Us Today

Let’s break down the national average refinance rates as of December 15, 2025, based on Zillow's latest figures. It's a mixed bag, which is precisely why I find myself drawn to these updates.

Loan Type	Current Rate	Change (Basis Points)	Previous Rate
30-Year Fixed	6.69%	–3	6.72%
15-Year Fixed	5.65%	–5	5.70%
5-Year ARM	7.40%	+27	7.13%

What strikes me immediately is the difference in direction. The 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed rates are showing modest declines, which is generally welcomed news. However, the 5-year ARM has seen a rather significant jump. This isn't just random fluctuation; it reflects how lenders are pricing risk in different economic scenarios.

Diving Deeper into the Declines and Jumps

We saw the 30-year fixed refinance rate ease by 3 basis points to 6.69%. While this is a step in a positive direction, it’s worth noting that it's just a hair above last week’s average of 6.67%. My take on this? It’s a sign of stability, perhaps, but not yet a major incentive for those who secured rates much lower during the pandemic era. However, for someone holding a rate closer to 7% or higher, that 3-basis-point drop could be the nudge needed to start crunching numbers.

The 15-year fixed refinance rate dipped by 5 basis points to 5.65%. This is a more compelling drop, and it makes the 15-year option even more attractive for those who can manage the higher monthly payments. Refinancing into a shorter term not only saves on interest over the life of the loan but also allows homeowners to pay off their mortgages faster – a goal many aspire to.

On the flip side, the 5-year ARM refinance rate surged by a notable 27 basis points to 7.40%. This sharp increase is a red flag. It suggests lenders are growing more cautious about adjustable-rate products. They might be factoring in the possibility of interest rates continuing to climb or staying higher for longer, and they're pricing that uncertainty into ARMs. For me, this makes fixed-rate loans the more appealing option for many borrowers right now, especially if long-term predictability is a priority.

What This Means for Your Pocketbook

So, what does this mixed movement really mean for you and me as homeowners looking to refinance?

• Fixed-Rate Stability Offers Predictability: For those seeking a sense of security, the slight dips in fixed rates are encouraging. The 15-year fixed at 5.65% is a particularly strong contender if you're looking to build equity faster and can handle a bit more out of your monthly budget. It’s a strategic move that can save you tens of thousands of dollars in interest over time.
• ARM Volatility Calls for Caution: The significant jump in ARM rates is a clear signal. While ARMs often start with lower introductory rates, the rapid increase here shows the potential for future cost hikes. If you're considering an ARM, you need to be absolutely sure you can comfortably afford the payments if rates climb significantly after the initial fixed period. Given the current economic climate and lender sentiment, this seems like a riskier proposition for many.
• Timing Your Move: With fixed rates holding relatively steady or even declining a bit, this could be a good moment to seriously consider refinancing. It's always a balancing act – waiting for rates to drop further versus locking in a rate that’s already favorable before the market potentially shifts again. Based on my experience, if you’re seeing a rate that significantly improves your monthly payment or the total interest paid over the loan's life, it's worth exploring, even if it's not the absolute lowest rate we’ve seen historically.

Understanding the Bigger Picture: Market Context

It’s not just about these daily rate fluctuations. The broader economic environment plays a huge role. We're seeing a marketplace that’s still trying to find its footing.

Recent Activity and Trends paint an interesting story:

• Surge in Refinance Applications: For the week ending December 5, 2025, Zillow reported a 14% week-over-week jump in refinance applications. Refinancing now makes up about 58% of all mortgage application activity. This tells me that many homeowners are actively seeking better terms, even if the rates aren't at historic lows. They're seeing opportunity.
• Retention Levels Hit a High: “Servicer refinance retention” has reached its highest point in over three years, at 28%. This means a good chunk of homeowners are refinancing with their current mortgage lender. When rates decline, homeowners often move quickly to lower their monthly payments, and staying with their current servicer can sometimes streamline the process.
• The “7% Group” is Active: The data suggests that much of the current refinancing activity is being driven by homeowners who originally locked in rates above 7% during 2023 or 2024. Those lucky enough to secure the ultra-low rates from the pandemic era (2–4%) are generally “locked in” and are not finding it financially beneficial to refinance. It’s a tale of two homeowners, really.

Looking Ahead: Short-Term Outlook

There's an expectation of continued volatility. Even though the Federal Reserve made a rate cut in December, mortgage rates actually saw a slight uptick afterward. This was attributed to investor sentiment leaning towards a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment and technical market pressures.

For 2026 forecasts, experts generally anticipate rates to hover in the low 6% to high 5% range. It seems most economists don't foresee a return to the 3% rates without a significant economic downturn or major shock. This long-term perspective is crucial for strategic planning. Homeowners can use various calculators, like the Bankrate Refinance Calculator, to figure out their break-even point on refinancing costs. Knowing this allows for a more informed decision without just chasing headlines.

My Bottom Line Takeaway

As we wrap up December 15, 2025, the refinance market offers a nuanced picture:

• 30-Year Fixed: 6.69% (Slightly down, offering stability)
• 15-Year Fixed: 5.65% (More attractive for faster payoff and savings)
• 5-Year ARM: 7.40% (Higher risk, significantly more expensive)

From my perspective, the message for homeowners is quite clear: fixed-rate loans continue to be the more predictable and often safer choice in this environment. The sharp rise in ARM rates underscores the potential cost of flexibility. My best advice, honed by years of hearing from homeowners and watching market trends, remains the same: always compare offers from multiple lenders. Don't settle for the first quote you get. Shopping around is the most effective way to ensure you secure the best possible savings on your mortgage.