Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 31, 2026: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 11 Basis Points

The mortgage market is showing some movement today, Saturday, January 31, 2026. If you're thinking about refinancing your home, you'll want to know that the popular 30-year fixed refinance rate has climbed to 6.75% nationwide, according to Zillow. This is an increase of 11 basis points from where we were just last week, and it suggests that the lower rates we've enjoyed might be taking a short break.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 31, 2026: 30-Year Refinance Rate Jumps to 6.75%

Here's a quick look at the main types of loans and how they’re tracking today:

Source: Zillow, January 31, 2026

The 30-Year Fixed: A Noticeable Step Up

That 6.75% rate for a 30-year fixed refinance is definitely a jump from Friday’s average of 6.55%. Looking back a week, the rate was at 6.64%, so this 11 basis point rise is significant. My take on this is that the bond market is reacting to ongoing inflation worries, and that usually pushes longer-term borrowing costs, like mortgage rates, a bit higher.

This increase might not sound like a huge deal, but let’s break it down. If you have a $300,000 loan, that difference between 6.64% and 6.75% means you’d be paying about $20 more each month. Over a year, that adds up to roughly $240 more in interest. It’s a good reminder of why timing can be so important when you're thinking about refinancing.

A Slight Dip for the 15-Year Fixed

On the flip side, if you’re looking at a shorter-term loan, the 15-year fixed refinance rate is actually moving in the opposite direction. It’s down to 5.56%, which is a small but welcome decrease of 4 basis points compared to both yesterday and last week. This loan type is still a fantastic option for those who want to pay off their home faster and save on total interest over the life of the loan. Just remember, even though the interest rate is lower, the monthly payments on a 15-year loan are usually higher than on a 30-year loan because you’re paying it back in half the time.

ARMs See Some Volatility

The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) is showing some noticeable ups and downs. Today, it’s at 7.25%, which is a jump of 21 basis points from Friday and also from last week. ARMs can be tricky. They often start with a lower rate than fixed mortgages, which can be tempting. However, after that initial period (in this case, five years), the rate can go up or down based on market conditions. This latest jump highlights the risk involved, and it’s something to think very carefully about, especially when rates are already a bit jumpy. For me, ARMs are best suited for borrowers who plan to move or refinance before the fixed period ends, or those who have a very good handle on their finances and can absorb potential rate increases.

What’s Driving These Changes?

It’s never just one thing that moves mortgage rates, and this situation is no different. Here’s what I see as the big factors influencing things at the end of January 2026:

• The Federal Reserve’s Stance: You’ll remember the Fed recently decided to keep its main interest rate steady, hovering between 3.5% and 3.75%. This was pretty much expected, but the markets are still watching the economy very closely. Any hints about inflation or job growth can send ripples through the system.
• Inflation Still in Focus: Inflation is still a bit higher than what the Fed aims for (around 2%). While there are signs it’s cooling down, it hasn’t fully settled yet. This is a major concern for the Fed, and it keeps pressure on interest rates.
• The Bond Market: I’ve been watching the U.S. Treasury yields pretty closely, and they’ve been trending upwards over the past few days. When Treasury yields, especially those for longer terms, go up, it usually means lenders will charge more for mortgages. It’s a pretty direct connection.
• The Economy’s Pace: Our economy is growing, but it's more of a steady, moderate climb than a sprint. People are still spending money, which is good, but businesses seem to be slowing down their investments a bit. This mixed economic picture can also lead to uncertainty that affects interest rates.

Why the Refinance Boom of Early 2026?

It’s important to remember that despite today’s slight increase in the 30-year rate, there's been a significant surge in refinancing activity already this year. Mortgage refinance applications jumped a massive 40% in the second week of January and then another 20% the week after!

What’s fueling this rush?

• A Lifeline for Recent Homebuyers: Many people who bought homes in 2024 and 2025 at rates ranging from 7% to 8% are now seeing a real chance to save money.
• Rates Dropped Earlier: The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage had actually dipped to around 6% recently. This is a big drop from the 7.04% average we saw back in January 2025.
• Demand is Through the Roof: Compared to this time last year, the demand for refinancing is reportedly 128% higher! It seems like a lot of homeowners are trying to take advantage of the lower rate environment before it potentially changes.

What This Means for You

Today’s news about the 30-year fixed refinance rate rising to 6.75% is a good heads-up. If you were lucky enough to lock in a rate earlier in January, you likely secured a better deal than what’s available today. For those who have been waiting, it might mean your monthly payment will be a bit higher than you hoped.

However, the slight dip in the 15-year fixed rate to 5.56% still offers a solid opportunity for some. It’s all about your personal financial situation and how quickly you want to pay off your home. And with the 5-year ARM jumping to 7.25%, it just reinforces my general feeling that adjustable-rate mortgages are a bit more of a gamble right now for the average homeowner.

My Two Cents on Today's Rates

Looking at the numbers today, January 31, 2026, we see a bit of a mixed bag. The 30-year fixed refinance rate is up to 6.75%, the 15-year fixed has dipped to 5.56%, and the 5-year ARM has climbed to 7.25%.

My advice, based on years of seeing how these markets move, is to always look at your own goals. Are you trying to lower your monthly payment as much as possible for the long haul? The 30-year fixed is usually your go-to. Want to be mortgage-free sooner and save on total interest, and can handle a higher monthly payment? The 15-year fixed is a strong contender. Are you comfortable with some uncertainty for a potentially lower starting rate? Then an ARM might be a thought, but be very cautious given today’s trend.

With the Fed holding firm and inflation still a bit of a concern, I expect mortgage rates to keep dancing around. So, it’s really wise to stay informed, chat with a trusted mortgage professional, and make a decision that feels right for your wallet and your future.