If you're like me and you keep an eye on what's happening with homes around here, you know the Southern California housing market is always buzzing. So, what's the real deal right now? Well, looking at the latest data from April 2025, it's clear that while things are still pretty active, we're seeing some interesting shifts. The Southern California housing market is currently navigating a landscape where sales have seen a slight dip, but at the same time, the prices of homes are still holding relatively steady.
Let's dive deeper into what's shaping our local housing scene.
Current Southern California Housing Market Trends
Home Sales in Southern California
Across Southern California, the number of homes sold in April showed a bit of a mixed bag. According to the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.), existing single-family home sales in the Southern California region saw a 1.6 percent increase compared to April of last year. While this is a positive sign year-over-year, it's important to note that statewide, sales were slightly down.
Looking at some of our local counties in Southern California, we see varied activity:
- Los Angeles County saw a 2.6 percent decrease in sales compared to last April.
- Orange County experienced a 4.1 percent decrease.
- Riverside County had a slight 0.5 percent increase.
- San Bernardino County showed a significant 13.5 percent increase.
- San Diego County saw a notable 9.4 percent increase.
- Ventura County had a 4.2 percent decrease.
- Imperial County witnessed a substantial 34.1 percent jump in sales.
It seems like different parts of Southern California are experiencing the market in their own way.
Home Prices Across Southern California
Now, let's talk about the big question: what's happening with home prices? In April 2025, the median home price in Southern California reached $887,000. This is an increase of 0.8 percent from April 2024, showing that values are still generally appreciating, although at a more moderate pace.
Here's a closer look at median home prices in our Southern California counties:
| County | April 2025 Median Price | April 2024 Median Price | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial | $405,000 | $377,500 | 7.3% |
| Los Angeles | $850,270 | $825,970 | 2.9% |
| Orange | $1,417,450 | $1,440,000 | -1.6% |
| Riverside | $645,000 | $642,000 | 0.5% |
| San Bernardino | $499,500 | $500,000 | -0.1% |
| San Diego | $1,015,000 | $1,047,500 | -3.1% |
| Ventura | $944,500 | $940,000 | 0.5% |
| Southern California | $887,000 | $880,000 | 0.8% |
As you can see, the picture varies quite a bit from county to county. Some areas, like Imperial and Los Angeles, are seeing price gains, while others, such as Orange and San Diego, have experienced slight decreases.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Southern California?
While some counties in Southern California have seen a small dip in median home prices compared to last year, it's not accurate to say that prices are broadly dropping across the entire region. The overall median price for Southern California is still up. However, the rate of increase has definitely slowed down. According to C.A.R., the annual price gain of 0.8 percent in April was the smallest since July 2023, which suggests a moderation in the rapid price growth we've seen in recent years.
Comparison with Current National Median Price
It's always helpful to see how our local market stacks up against the rest of the country. As of March 2025, the national median home price was around $403,700, with a year-over-year change of +2.7%. Clearly, the cost of buying a home in Southern California is significantly higher than the national average. While the national market is still seeing a stronger percentage increase in price, the sheer value of homes here remains considerably elevated.
Housing Supply in Southern California
One factor influencing the market is the supply of homes available for sale. In Southern California, we've seen a notable increase in the number of active listings. Total active listings in April rose year-over-year at the fastest pace since January 2023, reaching a 66-month high. This marks the 15th consecutive month of annual gain in housing supply.
More homes on the market can give buyers more choices and potentially ease some of the competitive pressure that drives up prices. We're also seeing more sellers putting their properties up for sale, with new active listings rising by double digits year-over-year for the fourth month in a row.
The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which measures how many months it would take to sell the current supply of homes at the current sales rate, was 3.6 months in Southern California in April. This is up from 2.6 months in April 2024, indicating a slightly less competitive market than last year.
Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market in Southern California?
Based on the data, the Southern California housing market is leaning towards a more balanced market than what we've experienced in the recent past. The increase in housing supply and a slight slowdown in sales indicate that buyers might have a little more negotiating power than they did when inventory was extremely tight. However, with prices still generally holding firm and the median time to sell a home in Southern California being around 24 days in April (up from 19 days last year), it's not a full-blown buyer's market either. Sellers are still generally seeing their homes sell relatively quickly.
Key Market Trends
Several key trends are shaping the Southern California real estate market right now:
- Moderating Price Growth: While prices are still mostly up year-over-year, the pace of increase has slowed significantly.
- Increasing Inventory: We're seeing more homes available for sale, which is providing more options for buyers.
- Slightly Slower Sales: While year-over-year sales are up in Southern California overall, the monthly figures show some cooling.
- Longer Time on Market: Homes are taking a bit longer to sell compared to the very fast pace of last year.
- Stable Sales-to-List-Price Ratio: The ratio remained at 100 percent in April, meaning homes are still generally selling for their asking price.
Impact of High Mortgage Rates
One of the biggest factors influencing the housing market across the country, including here in Southern California, is the level of mortgage rates. Currently, in mid-May 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.76%, and the 15-year fixed rate is about 5.89%, according to Freddie Mac. These rates are still considerably higher than what we saw a few years ago.
Looking ahead, most forecasts predict that mortgage rates will likely remain at or slightly above these levels for the rest of the year, potentially ending 2025 between 6.0% and 6.2%. These elevated rates impact affordability for buyers and can contribute to a more cautious approach in the market. The slight dip in pending sales statewide for the fifth consecutive month could be partly attributed to these higher borrowing costs.
My Thoughts on the Southern California Market
From my perspective, the Southern California housing market in mid-2025 is in a period of adjustment. The intense demand and rapid price appreciation we saw during the pandemic have started to moderate. The increase in inventory is a welcome sign for buyers who have been facing limited choices. While prices aren't plummeting, the slower growth suggests a more sustainable pace.
The impact of mortgage rates cannot be overstated. These higher rates are definitely making some potential buyers think twice, and they're influencing how much buyers can afford. However, Southern California remains a desirable place to live, with strong long-term demand.
I believe we'll continue to see a market that is more balanced than it has been in recent years. Buyers will likely have more time to make decisions, and while sellers might not see bidding wars as frequently, well-priced homes in desirable locations should still sell in a reasonable timeframe. Keeping a close eye on interest rate trends and the overall economic outlook will be crucial for understanding where the market goes from here.
Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2025
Looking ahead, I believe that the Southern California housing market will continue to be a competitive environment for buyers, but with some opportunities.
- I expect home price appreciation to slow further in 2025, with growth rates potentially declining to the 2-4% range.
- The housing supply is expected to increase gradually, offering more choices to buyers.
- Interest rates will likely remain elevated, but their impact on the market is expected to lessen as people adjust to the new norm.
- Demand for housing in Southern California will likely remain strong, driven by population growth and the desirability of the region.
My overall forecast is for a more balanced market in 2025. While it will still be a seller's market in many areas, buyers will have slightly more leverage.
In my experience, this market is more sensitive to changes in interest rates than some others. As interest rates stabilize or potentially decline, we could see renewed buyer confidence and a pickup in activity. I also feel that areas with a higher concentration of jobs, including those around the tech and entertainment sectors, are likely to remain robust compared to some of the more rural parts of Southern California.
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