Southern California Housing Market: Prices and Forecast 2025

If you’re looking at buying or selling a home in Southern California right now, you’ve probably noticed things are… interesting. The Southern California housing market in 2025 stands at a median sold price of $860,000 for existing single-family homes. While this is a slight dip from the previous month, it represents a small increase compared to this time last year. This signals a market that's stabilizing, though not exactly soaring.

Southern California Housing Market Trends:

I've been working in and around real estate for a while now, and I've seen a lot of cycles. What's happening in Southern California today isn't a sudden boom or an immediate bust. It’s more of a recalibration, a market finding its footing after a period of intense activity. It’s a time where understanding the nuances – more than just the headline numbers – is absolutely key.

A Look at the Numbers: What the Data Tells Us

Let's break down the latest figures from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) for November 2025. This is real-world data, reflecting actual sales and prices across the region.

State/Region/County	Nov. 2025 Median Sold Price	Oct. 2025 Median Sold Price	Nov. 2024 Median Sold Price	Price MTM% Chg	Price YTY% Chg	Sales MTM% Chg	Sales YTY% Chg
Southern California	$860,000	$874,240	$850,000	-1.6%	1.2%	-23.4%	-3.1%
Los Angeles	$942,610	$960,620	$937,030	-1.9%	0.6%	-27.6%	-5.4%
Orange	$1,400,000	$1,391,000	$1,375,000	0.6%	1.8%	-21.9%	-3.0%
San Diego	$990,000	$985,000	$975,000	0.5%	1.5%	-23.6%	-6.0%
Ventura	$955,000	$947,500	$912,000	0.8%	4.7%	-24.6%	2.3%

What these numbers mean:

• Median Sold Price YTY Chg (Year-over-Year): For Southern California as a whole, the median price saw a modest 1.2% increase compared to November of the previous year. This is an important indicator that prices haven't crashed and are holding relatively steady, even climbing a bit.
• Price MTM Chg (Month-to-Month): The slight 1.6% dip from October to November is common as we move into the cooler, less active winter months. This is a seasonal adjustment and doesn't necessarily signal a downturn.
• Sales YTY Chg (Year-over-Year): This is where things get a little more complex. The overall sales volume is down 3.1% compared to last year. This reflects fewer transactions happening.

Why the Lag in Sales? It's Not Just One Thing

The fact that sales are down year-over-year, even with slightly higher prices, tells me the market is moving with a bit more caution. From my perspective, several factors are at play:

1. Mortgage Rates Stickiness: While forecasts suggest rates might continue declining in 2026, the decrease is unlikely to be dramatic. This means higher borrowing costs are still a reality for many potential buyers. When your monthly payment goes up significantly because of interest rates, it can sideline even well-qualified buyers.
2. Economic Uncertainty: There are growing economic concerns, as mentioned by C.A.R.'s Chief Economist. When people feel uncertain about their jobs or the economy, they tend to wait on big financial decisions like buying a home.
3. Inventory Levels: While not explicitly detailed in this data snippet, generally, when sales lag but prices hold, it can indicate that inventory might be tight in certain areas. If there aren't enough homes for sale, even with higher prices, demand can be suppressed.

County-by-County: A Tale of Two Cities (and Counties!)

It's crucial to remember that “Southern California” is a vast region with incredibly diverse markets. Looking at individual counties reveals some interesting individual stories within the broader trend:

• Orange County: Continues to be a premium market, with the median price hitting a staggering $1.4 million. It saw a slight price increase year-over-year, showing its resilience.
• San Diego County: Close behind Orange County at $990,000. It also experienced a healthy year-over-year price growth of 1.5%.
• Los Angeles County: The median price is just over $942,000. While prices are up slightly year-over-year, sales are down more significantly than the regional average, suggesting a more pronounced slowdown in transaction volume here.
• Ventura County: This is one of the brighter spots, showing the strongest year-over-year price appreciation at 4.7%. Sales are also up slightly year-over-year, indicating a more active market.
• Imperial County: Stands out with significant price growth (11.6% YTY) and a huge jump in sales (46.7% YTY). This is likely a different kind of market, possibly more affordable and experiencing growth driven by other economic factors.
• San Bernardino County: Saw a slight price decrease of 2.5% year-over-year, but a notable increase in sales 10.2% YTY. This suggests that affordability might be driving more transactions there, even with a slight softening in price.

This county-level data is why I always tell clients they need to look at their specific neighborhood, not just the general “Southern California” numbers. What happens in Riverside might be very different from what's happening in coastal San Diego.

The Broader California Picture: A Market on the Mend?

It's worth noting the statewide context provided by C.A.R. California home sales, in general, reached their highest level in three years in November 2025. This is a positive signal that the broader housing market is seeing more activity. Statewide sales were up 1.9% from October and 2.6% from November 2024.

C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski calls this “an encouraging sign that the housing market is continuing its recovery.” I agree. While the growth is “gradual,” the upward trend suggests positive momentum. This is good news for everyone – buyers might feel more confident entering the market, sellers can expect more interest, and real estate professionals can look forward to a steadier flow of business.

Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

I believe that the Southern California housing market will continue to be a competitive environment for buyers, but with some opportunities.

• I expect home price appreciation to slow further in 2025, with growth rates potentially declining to the 2-4% range.
• The housing supply is expected to increase gradually, offering more choices to buyers.
• Interest rates will likely remain elevated, but their impact on the market is expected to lessen as people adjust to the new norm.
• Demand for housing in Southern California will likely remain strong, driven by population growth and the desirability of the region.

Stability with Subtle Shifts: I expect the Southern California housing market to continue on its path of relative stability. We're unlikely to see a massive surge in sales similar to what we experienced a couple of years ago. Instead, expect more of this gradual, measured activity.

Mortgage Rates are King: The direction of mortgage rates will be the biggest influencer. If rates continue to ease, we could see a more significant uptick in buyer activity. If they start climbing again, momentum might stall. I'm keeping a close eye on economic indicators that could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions.

Affordability Remains Key: For many, especially in areas like Los Angeles and Orange County, affordability will remain a significant challenge. This will likely continue to drive interest towards more accessible regions like the Inland Empire and parts of the Central Valley.

Inventory Management for Sellers: Sellers who price their homes correctly and present them well will continue to have the best chance of success. The days of multiple offers above asking price might be less common, but well-positioned homes will still attract serious buyers.

Regional Disparities Will Persist: As we’ve seen, different counties and regions will perform differently. Ventura, with its recent sales boost and price drop, could see continued buyer interest. Other areas like San Bernardino might remain strong due to their relative affordability.

The “Wait-and-See” Approach: Many potential buyers are still in a “wait-and-see” mode, hoping for even better conditions. However, the longer they wait, the more they might miss out on current opportunities, especially if rates begin to rise again.

My overall forecast is for a more balanced market in 2025. While it will still be a seller's market in many areas, buyers will have slightly more leverage.