Today’s Mortgage Rates, February 12, 2026: Steady Near 6% But for How Long?

As of today, February 12, 2026, the mortgage market is offering a welcome breath of stability. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage sits at a promising 5.87%, according to Zillow, with the 15-year fixed tracking closely behind at 5.44%. While this might feel like a settled picture, reading the tea leaves of the economy offers a more nuanced view, suggesting that current rates, while attractive, might be dancing on a precipice of potential upward pressure in the very near future.

It’s a delicate dance between a strong economy that could push rates up and the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach, which is keeping them relatively grounded. It’s a prime moment for anyone thinking about buying a home or refinancing their current one, but it’s wise to understand the forces at play.

Today’s Mortgage Rates, February 12: Steady Near 6% But for How Long?

The Numbers You Need to Know Today

Here’s a breakdown of what the market is showing us this morning, February 12, 2026:

(Data Source: Zillow)

You'll notice the Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are slightly higher than their fixed-rate counterparts right now, which is a common trend. This often means that while the initial rate might seem appealing, there’s an expectation that rates could rise down the line. For those favoring stability and predictable payments, the fixed rates are where it’s at, and today’s numbers are quite good, especially when you think about where we’ve been in recent years.

What’s Really Happening Behind the Scenes?

It's easy to just look at the numbers, but understanding why they are what they are is crucial.

A Period of Calm, But Not Stagnation: For several weeks now, mortgage rates have been hanging out in the neighborhood of 6%. This relative calm is a big deal for borrowers. It gives people the confidence to make big financial decisions, whether that’s putting an offer on a new home or tapping into their equity through a refinance. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen this kind of sustained affordability for so many.

Economic Fireworks and the Fed's Response: Yesterday’s jobs report was a doozy! Adding 130,000 jobs in January is a clear sign of economic strength. While this is fantastic news for the country, it has a direct impact on interest rates. The Federal Reserve, seeing this robust growth, has decided to pause any further rate cuts. Think of it this way: the economy is doing well, so there’s less of an urgent need for the Fed to inject more stimulus by lowering borrowing costs. This means that mortgage rates likely won’t be dropping significantly anytime soon. In fact, this strong economic performance often puts upward pressure on rates.

Builders Offering Sweeteners: You might have seen or heard about homebuilders getting creative. To keep the sales coming, many are offering mortgage rate buydowns. This is where the builder essentially pays a portion of your interest for the first few years of your loan, making your monthly payments lower initially. It’s an attractive incentive, and I can see why buyers are jumping on it. However, from my experience, this is something to approach with caution. While it can make that initial monthly payment much more manageable, it’s important to understand the long-term implications. If home prices take a dip or if rates jump unexpectedly later on, you could find yourself in a situation where you owe more than your home is worth – what we call being “underwater.” It’s a gamble, and you need to be comfortable with that risk.

Looking Ahead: What Do the Forecasts Say?

So, if today’s rates are relatively stable, what’s the outlook? My take, based on what I’m seeing, is that we’re likely to remain in a pretty tight range for the next few months.

Most major housing authorities are predicting a pretty flat trajectory for the first half of 2026. For instance:

(Data Source: Various Housing Authority Forecasts)

As you can see, the general consensus is that rates will likely hover around 6.0% to 6.3% through the spring buying season. While some folks are optimistic about a slow dip into the high 5% range in the latter half of the year, the immediate future, especially for the busy spring housing market, points towards sticky rates. This stickiness is mainly due to ongoing inflation concerns and the Fed’s careful maneuvering.

The Big Picture Factors Driving These Numbers

Why are things playing out this way? It’s a combination of important economic and policy decisions:

• The Fed's Tight Grip: After making three rate cuts in late 2025, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady at their January 2026 meeting is a major signal. Most analysts don't see them lowering rates again until at least June 2026. This deliberate pause means that mortgage rates won't have much room to fall in the short term, as the Fed waits to see how the economy continues to perform.
• The “Spread” is Normalizing: You might hear people talk about the “spread” – the difference between what the government is paying to borrow money (like on 10-year Treasury bonds) and mortgage rates. This gap has been narrowing, and as it gets closer to its historical average, it helps to bring mortgage rates down, even when the Fed isn't actively cutting rates. This normalization is a subtle but important factor helping to keep rates from climbing higher.
• Government Support for the Market: There have been some recent directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities. This is essentially the government stepping in to provide liquidity and support to the mortgage market. This action is a key reason why rates have managed to stay near these three-year lows.
• Economic Resilience Fights Back: Despite some hopes for slower growth, the economy has shown surprising strength. GDP growth has been revised upward, and while inflation is cooling, it's still a bit stubborn. With core PCE inflation remaining near 2.8%, it’s enough of a concern for the Fed to be cautious, preventing a more aggressive drop in borrowing costs.

What Does This Mean for You? Smart Moves to Make

Knowing these forecasts and factors is great, but what’s the practical advice?

• Refinancing Wisely: If you’re thinking about refinancing your current mortgage, my personal rule of thumb is to aim for a rate reduction of at least 0.50%. It also really helps if you plan to stay in your home long enough to recoup those closing costs. If you refinance today and rates drop another half a percent next month, you might kick yourself. But if you’re saving a significant amount and plan to be there for years, it’s likely a good move.
• Navigating Spring Season: The spring housing market is traditionally a busy time. As demand picks up, and with any potential economic or political “noise” that can emerge, we sometimes see a slight upward nudge in mortgage rates during the second quarter (April-June). So, if you’re planning to buy soon, keep this in mind. Locking in a rate sooner rather than later might be a smart strategy.

In Summary: A Strategic Time to Act

Today, February 12, 2026, finds us in a mortgage market that’s trying to find its footing. We’re seeing rates that are good when you look back at the past few years, offering a real opportunity to secure a favorable mortgage. However, the underlying economic currents suggest that this period of calm might not last forever.

For anyone considering a new home purchase or looking to improve their current mortgage through refinancing, now is a window of opportunity. It’s a time to act decisively but thoughtfully, understanding the economic forces at play and making informed decisions that align with your long-term financial goals.