Today’s Mortgage Rates, Jan 14: Rates Decline, Trending Lower Across the Board

As of January 14, 2026, if you're searching for a mortgage, you'll find that today's mortgage rates are generally trending lower, a welcome sign for many potential homebuyers. This shift comes on the heels of some interesting federal policy proposals that are making waves in the housing market. These recent drops are definitely something to pay attention to, especially if you've been patiently waiting for a better entry point into homeownership.

Today’s Mortgage Rates, Jan 14: Rates Decline, Trending Lower Across the Board

What the Numbers Are Saying: Latest Snapshot

Zillow, a name many of you know and trust for real estate information, has just released their latest data on today's mortgage rates as of January 14, 2026. Let's break down what they're seeing nationally. The big picture? A general decrease compared to where we were just last week.

Here’s a look at their average national mortgage rates:

Mortgage Term	Current Rate (Jan 14, 2026)	Change from Last Week
30-Year Fixed	5.99%	Decreased
20-Year Fixed	6.00%	Decreased
15-Year Fixed	5.25%	Decreased
10-Year Fixed	5.00%	Decreased
30-Year FHA	5.63%	Decreased
30-Year VA	5.63%	Decreased
30-Year Jumbo	6.00%	Decreased
7/6 Adjustable-Rate (ARM)	5.88%	Decreased

This table shows a pretty clear downward trend across the board for popular mortgage types. It’s not a dramatic plunge, but these smaller drops can make a real difference over the life of your loan.

Diving Deeper: What's Driving the Changes?

So, what’s causing these rates to tick down? The recent federal policy proposals have played a significant role. Without getting too bogged down in political jargon, think of it this way: when the government signals it might be stepping in to influence the bond market, especially mortgage-backed securities, it can directly affect how much lenders charge for loans.

The “Trump Effect” and Market Reaction:

Experts mention something they're calling “The Trump Effect.” This refers to proposed executive orders that involve purchasing mortgage bonds. This kind of news can create a buzz in the market. When there’s talk of the government buying up bonds, it can increase demand for those bonds, which, in turn, can push their prices up and their yields (which influence mortgage rates) down.

We’ve seen a direct spike in application volume, up by a significant 28.5% this week, according to Zillow. This tells me people are hearing the news, seeing the rates potentially tick down, and getting motivated to explore their options. It’s a classic case of market psychology at play, where news and anticipation can drive tangible changes in real-time.

However, it's not all smooth sailing. The same reports also highlight “economic anxiety.” This refers to concerns about ongoing inflation and government spending. These factors can act as a drag, potentially limiting how much further rates can fall in the early days of 2026. It’s a delicate balance the market is trying to strike.

Popular Loan Types: A Closer Look

Let’s focus on the loans that most people consider when buying a home:

• 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: This is still the reigning champion for a reason. Its popularity stems from offering a stable, predictable monthly payment. As of today, the average rate is 5.99%. This is a notable decrease from last week, where rates were hovering in the 6.16% to 6.25% range. I’ve even seen some rates briefly dip below the 6% mark earlier this week, which is a psychological barrier for many buyers. This happened shortly after a social media announcement from President Trump about a potential bond-buying program by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
• 15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: For those looking to pay off their homes faster and save on overall interest, the 15-year fixed is attractive. The current average is 5.25%, down from around 5.46% last week. These rates are at their lowest in several weeks, making this a good time for borrowers who qualify to lock in. It’s a solid strategy for building equity quicker.
• 5/1 Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM): This is where things get a bit more interesting and, frankly, unusual. The 5/1 ARM rate is currently sitting at 6.17%. Now, what’s peculiar is that this rate is actually higher than the current 30-year fixed rate. Normally, ARMs offer a lower introductory rate than fixed loans. This inversion can happen when the market anticipates future rate cuts or if there’s significant economic uncertainty. Lenders price this risk, and sometimes, the perceived future uncertainty makes long-term fixed rates more appealing, even if they look higher on the surface initially. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher but an important detail for those considering ARMs.

Why Rates Aren't the Same Everywhere: Beyond the National Average

While these national averages are a great starting point, you’ve probably noticed that today's mortgage rates can vary from one place to another. Even within the national average of 5.99% for a 30-year fixed on January 14, 2026, there are differences. Zillow provides some examples:

• California: Around 5.99%, matching the national average.
• New Jersey: Slightly lower, around 5.875%.
• New York: Tends to be a bit higher, averaging about 6.25%.
• Texas: Also a bit lower, around 5.875%.

What Causes These State-Level Differences?

As someone who works with borrowers across different regions, I can tell you it’s not random. Several factors contribute:

• Foreclosure Laws: Some states have more complex and lengthy foreclosure processes. This means lenders might face higher risks and costs if a borrower defaults. To compensate, they might charge slightly higher rates in those areas.
• Lender Competition: In areas with a lot of lenders actively competing for business, rates are often driven down to attract more customers. Cities with large populations tend to have this effect.
• Operating Costs for Lenders: Think about it: if a lender has higher expenses in a particular state – maybe due to higher rents for their offices or increased property taxes – they might need to charge a little more on loans to cover those costs.
• Local Economic Health: Strong local job markets, stable housing demand, and overall economic prosperity in a region can influence lender confidence and, therefore, the rates they offer.

Looking Ahead: What's the Forecast for Tomorrow?

Predicting mortgage rates is a bit like trying to guess the weather – there are a lot of variables! However, experts have been sharing their thoughts on what we might see in the coming months.

Expert Outlook for Q1-Q2 2026:

The general consensus is that rates will likely remain volatile but are expected to hover in the low-to-mid 6% range. Significant drops into the 5% range are generally seen as less likely unless there's a substantial slowdown in the economy or a significant shift in inflation data.

Here’s a quick summary of some forecasts:

• Fannie Mae: Predicts an average around 6.2% for the first quarter of 2026, with a gradual dip towards 5.9% by the end of the year.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Forecasts a steadier average of 6.4% throughout 2026.
• Zillow Research: Echoes the sentiment that rates will likely stay above 6% for most of the year, recognizing there might be brief dips below that mark.
• Bankrate: Some analysts are more optimistic, suggesting that average 30-year fixed rates could potentially fall as low as 5.5%, especially if economic concerns escalate. However, they still expect rates to generally bounce around the 6% level.

My take on this is that while the recent policy news has provided a temporary boost and a reason for rates to ease, the underlying economic pressures – inflation and spending – are still present. This means volatility is likely to be our friend (or foe, depending on your perspective) for a while. It’s crucial to stay informed and be ready to act when good opportunities arise.

The Takeaway:

For anyone looking to buy a home or refinance, today's mortgage rates on January 14, 2026, offer a more favorable picture than we've seen recently. The dips are real, driven by a mix of policy signals and market anticipation. However, the economic landscape is complex, suggesting that rates might not plummet dramatically. It’s a prime time to get pre-approved, shop around with different lenders, and understand your personal financial situation to make the most of the current market. Don't just watch the numbers; understand what they mean for you and your dream of homeownership.