Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 17, 2025: Rates Go Down, 30-Year FRM Drops by 10 Basis Points

Mortgage rates today, September 17, 2025, have edged downward with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate falling to 6.34%, a slight drop from last week's 6.45%, as the financial markets anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Refinancing rates, however, have seen a modest increase, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate climbing to 6.70%. This mixed movement reflects investors’ responses to weaker labor market data and expectations of easing monetary policy, signaling some relief for prospective homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 17, 2025: Rates Go Down, 30-Year FRM Drops by 10 Basis Points

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates fall to 6.34%, down 11 basis points from last week (Zillow).
• 30-year fixed refinance rates rise slightly to 6.70%, up 5 basis points from last week.
• Federal Reserve widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points today, influencing mortgage rates indirectly.
• Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% in August, signaling slower job growth and possibly encouraging rate cuts.
• The 15-year fixed mortgage rate inched up to 5.52%, while the 5-year ARM jumped to 7.56%.
• Mortgage rates likely to remain above 6% for the foreseeable future, with projections to dip further in 2026.
• Refinance applications near a high, driven by recent rate declines, but rates on refinancing are slightly higher this week.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

Mortgage rates fluctuate daily due to changes in economic data, Federal Reserve policy, and bond market yields. According to Zillow, as of September 17, 2025, here is an updated snapshot of the key mortgage products:

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change	APR	APR Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed	6.34%	↓ 0.11%	6.89%	0.00%
20-Year Fixed	6.06%	↓ 0.15%	6.46%	↓ 0.11%
15-Year Fixed	5.52%	↑ 0.01%	5.90%	↑ 0.09%
10-Year Fixed	5.79%	0.00%	6.09%	0.00%
7-Year ARM	6.81%	↑ 0.44%	7.73%	↑ 0.29%
5-Year ARM	7.56%	↑ 0.57%	8.13%	↑ 0.45%

Government-backed loan rates (FHA, VA) also show slight fluctuations:

Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change	APR	APR Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed FHA	7.25%	↑ 1.59%	8.29%	↑ 1.63%
30-Year Fixed VA	5.94%	↑ 0.03%	6.15%	↑ 0.05%
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.17%	↓ 0.05%	6.13%	↓ 0.05%
15-Year Fixed VA	5.88%	↑ 0.31%	6.23%	↑ 0.33%

Refinance Rates Snapshot

Refinancing offers homeowners an opportunity to reduce monthly payments or shorten loan terms by taking advantage of lower rates. Yet, after months of volatile rates, refinance rates recently climbed modestly:

Refinance Loan Type	Current Rate	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	6.70%	↑ 0.07%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.49%	↑ 0.08%
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.66%	↑ 0.21%

The increase in refinance rates contrasts with the slight dip in purchase mortgage rates, pointing to different supply-demand factors at work, including loan demand composition and lender risk assessments.

Why Are Mortgage Rates Dropping Now?

Mortgage rates don't move in isolation; they are influenced by a mix of economic events, market expectations, and Federal Reserve policy signals. The slight dip to 6.34% on the 30-year fixed mortgages today is largely due to the following factors:

• Expected Federal Reserve Rate Cut
  The Fed is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in their meeting on September 16-17, 2025. Though mortgage rates aren't directly tied to the Fed funds rate, this action typically lowers long-term Treasury yields, a major benchmark for mortgage pricing.
• Cooling Labor Market Figures
  The August unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2%, and job growth slowed drastically with only 22,000 jobs added. This signals softer economic growth and less inflation pressure, increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which tends to depress mortgage rates.
• Declining 10-Year Treasury Yields
  Mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury note yield, which has fallen toward 4.07%, its lowest since October 2024, contributing directly to lower mortgage costs.

Understanding the Federal Reserve's Influence on Mortgage Rates

Though the Fed does not set mortgage rates, its monetary policy actions influence them heavily via broader economic channels:

• Federal Funds Rate Movements
  Changes to the Fed funds rate impact the general cost of borrowing money across financial markets, including Treasury yields.
• Bond Market Dynamics
  Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield because investors compare returns on mortgage-backed securities versus government bonds.
• Economic Indicators
  Inflation data, employment reports, and GDP growth influence Federal Reserve decisions and subsequently mortgage rates.

In 2025, after a cycle of aggressive rate hikes from 2022-2023 to combat inflation, the Fed signaled a pivot toward easing with three rate cuts in late 2024 and steady pauses early this year. With signs of economic slowdown emerging, the market fully expects a rate cut today, possibly followed by two more cuts before year-end, which could push mortgage rates below 6% eventually.

Mortgage Market Context & Economic Indicators

The housing market is very sensitive to mortgage rates because of affordability constraints. Here is how current economic data is shaping the mortgage landscape:

• Unemployment Rate: Rose modestly to 4.3%, suggesting a cooling labor market.
• Job Growth: Only 22,000 jobs added in August, signaling slow hiring.
• Inflation: Core PCE inflation at about 2.7%, cooling but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Mortgage Application Trends: Refinances now represent nearly 47% of mortgage applications, the highest since October last year.

These indicators hint at a slowing economy, likely pushing the Fed to ease policy and thus encourage more affordable mortgage rates.

Comparing Mortgage Rates for Buyers and Refinancers

Understanding the differences in rates and trends between purchase mortgages and refinance loans is critical:

Loan Type	Purchase Rates Today	Weekly Change	Refinance Rates Today	Weekly Change
30-Year Fixed	6.34%	↓ 0.11%	6.70%	↑ 0.07%
15-Year Fixed	5.52%	↑ 0.01%	5.49%	↑ 0.08%
5-Year ARM	7.56%	↑ 0.57%	7.66%	↑ 0.21%

The rise in refinance rates even as purchase rates fall could reflect tighter lending standards, changing risk profiles, or shifts in borrower demand.

Mortgage Rate Projections and Market Sentiment

Looking ahead, mortgage rates are expected to fluctuate but remain largely above 6% in the short term:

• National Association of REALTORS® projects mortgage rates averaging around 6.4% in the second half of 2025, dipping to 6.1% in 2026.
• Fannie Mae forecasts 30-year fixed mortgage rates finishing 2025 at about 6.5%, declining to 6.1% in 2026.
• Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates rates near 6.7% by the end of 2025, falling to 6.5% by end of 2026 amid volatility.

Overall sentiment portrays a market cautiously optimistic about falling rates, but with underlying economic uncertainties tempering expectations for a rapid decline.

Example: What Does a Rate Drop Mean for Monthly Payments?

Consider a $300,000 home loan with a 30-year fixed mortgage:

Rate	Monthly Payment (Principal & Interest)
6.45% (Last Week)	$1,893
6.34% (Today)	$1,897 (estimated)

Note: The monthly payment impact may seem small in basis point changes, but cumulative effects and refinancing options can save thousands over the loan term.

My Perspective on Today’s Mortgage Rates

From my observation, today’s slight dip in mortgage rates signals a market eagerly awaiting the Fed’s next moves. While rates remain historically elevated compared to pandemic lows, the anticipation of rate cuts offers relief to buyers who've endured high borrowing costs for the past two years. Refinancers seeing only modest rate reductions should weigh the benefits carefully, as market volatility could push these rates around.

Despite the optimism, it’s prudent to recognize that mortgage rates are influenced by complex global and domestic factors, including government policy, inflation trends, global economic shifts, and even geopolitical tensions. The upcoming Fed decision is a pivotal moment but not the final word—the market will continue to react dynamically in the months to come.