Mesa AZ Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2025-2026

If you're thinking about buying a home in Mesa, selling your current place, or just curious about what's going on with real estate in our awesome city, you've come to the right spot. Here's the bottom line for the current situation and looking ahead to 2025: the Mesa, AZ housing market is showing signs of cooling, with slightly more homes becoming available, but prices are holding fairly steady, making it a bit more balanced for buyers than it has been recently.

Right now, it feels like things are finding a new rhythm. It's not the super-fast, bidding-war frenzy of a year or two ago, but it's also not a buyer's free-for-all. It's a bit more… normal. Let's break down what the numbers are telling us.

Mesa Housing Market: What's Happening Now in 2025?

Looking at the latest data from Realtor.com for September, we can see some interesting things happening in Mesa. It's like looking at a snapshot of where we are right now.

Home Prices: A Gentle Shift

One of the biggest things everyone wants to know is about home prices. In September, the median listing price in Mesa was $480,000. Now, this is a moderate drop from the month before. This might sound a little scary if you're looking to sell, but honestly, it's a natural part of the market's cycle.

What's really interesting is when you look at the price per square foot. In Mesa, this metric actually increased by 0.1% from August to September. This is a bit different from what we saw nationally, where the price per square foot decreased by 0.8%. This tells me that even with a slight dip in overall listing prices, the value of the space within homes in Mesa is still holding strong, and in fact, is doing better than the national average. It’s like saying while the whole cake might have shrunk a tiny bit, each slice is still worth a bit more!

Table 1: Mesa vs. National Home Price Trends (September)

Metric	Mesa	National
Median Listing Price	$480,000	N/A
Price Per Square Foot Change (Month-over-Month)	+0.1%	-0.8%

Housing Inventory: More Choices, But Not a Flood

This is a big one for buyers – the housing inventory or supply. Are there more homes on the market to choose from? The data shows that in September, there were 1,309 homes for sale in Mesa. This is a 1.6% increase from the month before. While that might not sound like a huge jump, it's actually a smaller increase than usual for this time of year. Typically, we see more homes popping up in September, so this suggests sellers might be a little hesitant or waiting for the right moment.

However, compared to this time last year, the inventory is significantly higher – a whopping 33.0% more homes were available in September! This is fantastic news for buyers. It means you have a better chance of finding a home that fits your needs and potentially a little more room to negotiate.

Nationally, active inventory also grew, but by a smaller margin of 0.2%. So, Mesa is definitely seeing a more noticeable increase in available homes.

New Listings: A Mixed Bag

When we talk about new homes hitting the market, the story is a bit mixed. In September, 598 new listings came onto the market in Mesa. This was 23.6% more than the previous month. That sounds promising, right? But here's the catch: it was also 2.3% less than the same time last year. This might mean that fewer homeowners are deciding to list their properties this fall compared to last year, which could help keep the overall inventory from ballooning too quickly.

Nationally, new listings actually fell by 1.8% from August to September, so Mesa's increase in new listings, even if it's down from last year, is a positive sign for buyers looking for fresh options.

Time on Market: Homes Are Lingering a Bit Longer

How long does it take for a house to sell? This is another key indicator of whether we're in a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market. In September, homes in Mesa took an average of 59 days to sell. This is five days less than the previous month, which is a good sign for sellers. However, it's 11 days more than the same month last year.

What does this mean? It means homes are selling slower than they were a year ago. For buyers, this is good news. You're likely not going to be rushed into making a decision, and you might have more time to think things through and make a solid offer. Nationally, homes spent an average of 62 days on the market in September, so Mesa is actually selling homes a bit faster than the national average right now.

Mesa Housing Market Forecast 2025-2026

So, with all these trends in mind, what can we expect for the Mesa housing market in the near future, especially looking towards 2025? While nobody has a crystal ball, we can make some educated guesses based on what we're seeing.

Mortgage Rates: The Wild Card

Let's talk about mortgage rates. This is a huge factor for affordability and has a massive impact on demand. Mortgage rates have been a bit unpredictable, fluctuating quite a bit. After remaining elevated for much of 2024 and 2025, mortgage rates began falling in September 2025, aided by Federal Reserve rate cuts. The average 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.17% in late October, down from 6.54% a year prior.

My personal take is that while they might not be at the all-time lows we saw a couple of years ago, they've also settled into a range that many buyers are starting to accept. If rates continue to hold steady or even dip slightly, it could really boost buyer confidence and activity in 2025. If they jump up significantly, it could put a damper on things. It's definitely something to keep a close eye on!

Home Prices: Steady as She Goes (Mostly)

Given the trends of increasing inventory and homes taking a little longer to sell, I don't see home prices in Mesa skyrocketing in 2025. Instead, I'm predicting a more stable and gradual appreciation. We might see minor fluctuations month-to-month, similar to what we've observed recently. The market is shifting away from the rapid price gains and becoming more balanced. This means buyers might have a slightly better chance of finding a home at a more manageable price point, and sellers can still expect to get a fair price for their property. It’s moving towards a more sustainable pace.

Inventory and Demand: A Balanced Dance

With more homes hitting the market compared to last year, the housing inventory in Mesa is likely to remain healthy. This increased supply, combined with potentially steady or slightly rising mortgage rates, will probably keep demand from getting overheated. We're likely to see a more balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers have a massive advantage. This is actually a good thing for the long-term health of the market. It prevents dramatic bubbles and crashes.

The Buyer's or Seller's Market Question

So, are we in a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market? Right now, it feels like we're in a transitional period. It's leaning towards being more of a buyer's market because of the increased inventory and longer time on market compared to last year. Buyers have more options and less pressure. However, because home prices are still holding their own and not dropping drastically, sellers aren't entirely at a disadvantage either. My forecast for 2025 and 2026 is for this balanced market to continue. Buyers will need to be prepared and make competitive offers, but they won't be facing the same level of competition as before. Sellers will need to price their homes realistically and be patient.

Table 2: Mesa Housing Market Outlook for 2026 (Forecast)

Factor	Outlook
Home Prices	Stable to moderate appreciation
Housing Inventory	Remain healthy, offering more choices
Time on Market	Likely to stay moderate, giving buyers more time
Buyer/Seller Power	Balanced, with slight lean towards buyer advantage
Mortgage Rates	Key variable, potential stability or slight decrease

Ultimately, the Mesa housing market is continuing to evolve. The days of extremely rapid price growth and homes flying off the market in a day or two seem to be behind us for now. This means opportunity for those looking to buy and a realistic market for those looking to sell. It’s an exciting time to be involved in real estate here, and I'm looking forward to seeing how things play out!