Is that R-word – recession – starting to creep into your conversations more often? If you're anything like me, you're probably glued to the news, wondering what it all means for your wallet, your job, and heck, maybe even your dream of owning a home, or the value of the home you already have. One question that seems to be on everyone's mind is: Will the housing market crash due to an upcoming recession? Let's get straight to the point: most experts, including those at real estate giant Redfin, don't foresee a housing market crash even if we do enter a recession. Instead, expect a cooling down, not a collapse.

Will the Housing Market Crash Due to Looming Recession in 2025?

Now, I know what you might be thinking: “Cooling down? Is that just fancy talk for ‘prices will still be crazy high'?” Well, it's a bit more nuanced than that. Let's dive into why the housing market isn't likely to implode like some might fear, and what we can realistically expect if the economy takes a turn.

Why a 2008-Style Housing Market Crash is Unlikely This Time Around

We all remember 2008, right? The words “housing market crash” still send shivers down many spines. But, thankfully, the situation today is quite different. According to a recent Newsweek report, and backed by my own understanding of the market, several key factors are at play that are acting as strong shields against a dramatic housing market collapse.

• Locked-in Low Mortgage Rates: A Safety Net for HomeownersThink back to the pandemic era. Interest rates were at rock bottom. Millions of homeowners, including myself, jumped at the chance to refinance or buy with super low mortgage rates. This is a huge deal! As Redfin economist Chen Zhao points out, these homeowners have essentially “locked in ultra-low mortgage rates.” Even if a recession hits and job losses occur, these folks are sitting pretty with manageable monthly payments. They are far less likely to be forced to sell their homes compared to someone with a variable-rate mortgage or a high-interest loan. This creates a stability we didn't have before 2008.
• Home Equity is a Powerful CushionRemember the crazy home price appreciation we've seen in the past few years? While it made buying a home feel impossible for some, it's actually created a significant safety net now. Most homeowners today have substantial equity in their homes. This means they owe much less on their mortgage compared to what their house is currently worth. Even if prices were to soften a bit (which is different from crashing!), most homeowners would still be far from being “underwater” – owing more than the home's value. As Zhao mentioned, even if someone is a little underwater, the motivation to hold onto the property is strong, because there's still value there and the potential for future appreciation.
• We Learned Lessons from the 2008 CrisisThe 2008 housing crash was partly fueled by risky lending practices – remember those subprime mortgages and “no-doc” loans? Lenders were giving mortgages to pretty much anyone, regardless of their ability to repay. Thankfully, regulations are much tighter now. Lenders are more careful, and borrowers are generally more qualified. This means we don't have the same shaky foundation in the mortgage market that led to the previous crisis. In my opinion, this stricter lending environment is one of the biggest reasons why a repeat of 2008 is highly improbable.
• Mortgage Servicers Are More Prepared to HelpAnother positive shift is how mortgage companies handle delinquencies. In the past, foreclosure was often the go-to solution. Now, mortgage servicers are much more willing to work with homeowners facing financial hardship. Options like mortgage forbearance (temporarily pausing payments) and loan modifications (changing loan terms to make payments more affordable) are more readily available. This proactive approach can help prevent foreclosures and keep people in their homes, further stabilizing the housing market.

Who Might Feel the Pinch? It's Not All Sunshine and Roses

While a full-blown housing market crash seems unlikely, it's not to say that everyone will be completely unscathed by a recession. Certain groups and situations could feel more pressure.

• Renters May Face Job Losses and Shifting RentsThe Newsweek report highlights that renters are often more vulnerable during economic downturns. Recessions tend to hit lower-income individuals harder, and renters are statistically more likely to fall into this category. Job losses could make it difficult for renters to afford housing, but on the flip side, a decrease in demand due to job losses could also potentially drive rents lower. So, while renters might face immediate economic challenges, they could also see some relief in the rental market itself.
• Recent Homebuyers in Hot Markets: A Bit More VulnerableLet's be real, those who bought homes very recently, especially at the peak of the market with higher prices and higher interest rates, might feel a bit more anxious. If home values stagnate or even dip slightly in their area, and they face job insecurity, they could be in a tighter spot. However, even for these buyers, there's a potential silver lining. As the Newsweek article points out, “if rates drop enough, these individuals could refinance and see their monthly payment shrink considerably.” Historically, mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy weakens. Refinancing could offer a lifeline and make their payments more manageable.

What to Expect: A Cooling Market, Not a Deep Freeze

So, if a crash isn't in the cards, what should we anticipate for the housing market if a recession hits? The consensus seems to be a cooling.

• Slower Sales and More InventoryWe're already seeing signs of this cooling. Homes are staying on the market a bit longer, and the frenzy of bidding wars has definitely subsided in many areas. A recession would likely accelerate this trend. People might be more hesitant to buy or sell, leading to slower sales. This also means inventory – the number of homes available for sale – could increase, giving buyers more choices and less pressure.
• Price Stabilization or Moderate Price SofteningInstead of prices plummeting, experts predict more of a stabilization or perhaps a moderate softening in some markets. This means we might not see the crazy double-digit price growth of the past few years, and in some overheated areas, we might even see prices edge down a bit. For buyers who have been waiting for a break, this could actually be good news! It could create a window of opportunity to buy without facing insane competition and inflated prices.

Keep an Eye on the Signals, But Don't Panic

Like Newsweek mentioned, there are definitely recession indicators flashing – things like declining consumer confidence and shifts in financial markets. It's wise to stay informed and be prepared for potential economic changes. However, when it comes to the housing market, the data and expert opinions suggest we're heading towards a slowdown, not a catastrophic crash.

From my perspective, and based on what I'm seeing and reading, the housing market is proving to be more resilient than many might have feared. The safeguards in place, like locked-in low rates and healthy equity, are significant.

While things might feel a bit uncertain, especially with the constant recession talk, remember that a cooling market can actually be a healthier and more sustainable market in the long run. It can bring balance back and create opportunities for both buyers and sellers. So, take a deep breath, stay informed, and don't let recession fears alone scare you away from your housing goals.

The question on many Americans' minds is: Will the Housing Market Slowdown Because of Reciprocal Tariffs? The short answer, according to a recent survey, is that the majority of people are concerned. A whopping 72% of Americans believe that “Reciprocal Tariffs” will negatively impact the US housing market, with some even fearing a significant downturn.

While a complete crash might not be a certainty, these trade tensions are undoubtedly creating uncertainty and could potentially slow down the market. Let's dive into why this is the case and what the potential consequences could be.

Will the Housing Market Crash Due to Reciprocal Tariffs?

I've been following economic trends, especially those affecting the real estate sector, for a while now. In my opinion, it's not just about the numbers; it's about understanding the psychology behind market movements. And right now, a lot of that psychology is driven by fear of the unknown.

What are Reciprocal Tariffs, and Why Should You Care?

Tariffs, in their simplest form, are taxes on imported goods. Reciprocal tariffs take this a step further, implying that if one country imposes a tariff on another, the second country will respond with a similar tariff on goods coming from the first. This can escalate into a trade war, where both countries keep raising tariffs on each other, ultimately making goods more expensive for consumers and businesses.

Why should you care? Because the housing market is intricately connected to the broader economy. Think about it:

• Construction materials: Many building materials, like lumber, steel, and even certain types of drywall, are imported. Tariffs on these goods increase the cost of building new homes.
• Home appliances: From refrigerators to washing machines, many appliances are also imported. Higher tariffs mean higher prices for these essentials, making homes less affordable.
• Investor confidence: Trade wars create uncertainty, which can make investors hesitant to put money into the housing market.

A New Survey Reveals Growing Anxiety

A recent survey conducted by REsimpli, analyzing the opinions of 1,200 Americans concerned with political and economic changes, sheds light on the public's perception of the potential impact of reciprocal tariffs. The results are telling:

• High Level of Concern: 72% of those surveyed believe reciprocal tariffs will hurt the US housing market.
• Border Communities at Risk: 53.25% think housing markets near the US-Canada border will be most affected.
• Supply Chain Worries: 33.75% are highly concerned about disruptions to housing supply chains.
• Investor Pullback: 66.42% believe Canadian investors will pull back from the US.
• Liquidity Concerns: 69.5% expect the housing market to become less liquid.
• Affordability Impact: 55.92% believe housing affordability will be negatively impacted.
• Mortgage Rate Hikes: 51.25% anticipate increases in mortgage rates.

These numbers paint a picture of growing anxiety surrounding the housing market's future.

Digging Deeper: The Implications of Reciprocal Tariffs

Let's break down some of the key concerns and explore their potential implications:

1. Impact on Housing Supply Chains:

• Increased Construction Costs: Tariffs on imported building materials like lumber, steel, and aluminum will drive up construction costs. This means new homes will be more expensive to build, potentially leading to fewer new construction projects.
• Supply Shortages: Trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, making it harder to get the materials needed to build homes. This could lead to delays in construction and further price increases.
• Example: Imagine a homebuilder relying on Canadian lumber, which now carries a 20% tariff. This instantly increases the cost of framing a house, forcing the builder to either absorb the cost (reducing profit) or pass it on to the buyer (making the home less affordable).

2. Canadian Investor Behavior:

• Reduced Investment: Canada is a significant investor in the US housing market, particularly in certain regions. Tariffs and trade tensions could deter Canadian investors, leading to a decrease in demand for US properties.
• Impact on Condo Markets: Canadian investors often focus on condo markets in major US cities. A pullback could put downward pressure on condo prices in these areas.
• Example: A Canadian investor who previously purchased several condos in Miami as rental properties might decide to halt future investments due to tariff-related uncertainty, potentially impacting the demand and prices in that market.

3. Liquidity and Affordability:

• Slower Sales: If buyers become more cautious due to trade tensions, homes may take longer to sell. This can reduce the liquidity of the market, making it harder for sellers to find buyers quickly.
• Increased Mortgage Rates: While the direct link between tariffs and mortgage rates is complex, a trade war can lead to increased economic uncertainty, which can, in turn, push mortgage rates higher. This makes buying a home more expensive for everyone.
• Reduced Affordability: The combination of higher construction costs, potential price increases on imported appliances, and potentially higher mortgage rates could significantly reduce housing affordability, pricing some potential buyers out of the market.

4. Regional Impacts:

• Border States at Risk: The survey suggests that housing markets near the US-Canada border are particularly vulnerable. This is because these areas often have strong trade ties and cross-border investment flows.
• Example: Cities like Detroit, Buffalo, and Seattle, which rely heavily on trade with Canada, could experience more significant housing market impacts than other regions.
• Specific Regional Impacts: Some states such as Maine, Michigan, North Dakota, and Montana, have closer proximity with Canada. These states could witness significant trade and supply chain disruptions.

5. Property Tax Implications:

• Decreased Property Values: In areas where the housing market softens due to trade tensions, property values could decline. This, in turn, could impact property tax revenues for local governments.
• Tax Increases: To compensate for lost revenue, local governments might be forced to increase property tax rates, adding another financial burden on homeowners.

Is a Housing Market Crash Inevitable?

While the survey results are concerning, they don't necessarily guarantee a housing market crash. The housing market is influenced by a complex interplay of factors, and tariffs are just one piece of the puzzle. Here are some factors that could mitigate the negative impacts:

• Strong US Economy: A strong overall economy could help offset the negative effects of tariffs. If people have jobs and confidence in the future, they are more likely to buy homes.
• Low Inventory: In many areas, housing inventory remains low. This could help support prices, even if demand softens somewhat.
• Government Intervention: The government could take steps to address the situation, such as negotiating trade agreements or providing assistance to affected industries.

What Homebuyers and Investors Should Do?

If you're considering buying or investing in real estate, it's important to be aware of the potential risks and opportunities associated with reciprocal tariffs. Here's some advice:

• Do Your Research: Stay informed about the latest developments in trade policy and their potential impact on your local housing market.
• Be Cautious: If you're planning to buy, don't overextend yourself financially. Leave room in your budget for potential increases in mortgage rates or property taxes.
• Consider Location: Think carefully about the location of your investment. Areas with strong local economies and diverse industries may be less vulnerable to trade shocks.
• Talk to the Experts: Consult with a real estate agent, mortgage broker, and financial advisor to get personalized advice based on your individual circumstances.

My Take: Uncertainty is the Biggest Threat

In my opinion, the biggest threat posed by reciprocal tariffs isn't necessarily a dramatic crash, but rather the uncertainty they create. Uncertainty makes people nervous, and nervous people tend to hold back on big decisions like buying a home.

I think it's crucial for policymakers to consider the potential impact of trade policies on the housing market. The housing market is a major driver of the US economy, and policies that destabilize it could have far-reaching consequences.

Looking Ahead: Monitoring the Situation

The situation is constantly evolving, so it's important to stay informed and monitor developments closely. Pay attention to:

• Trade negotiations between the US and Canada. Any progress in resolving trade disputes could help ease market anxieties.
• Economic data on housing starts, home sales, and prices. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the housing market.
• Consumer sentiment surveys. These surveys can gauge the level of confidence among potential homebuyers.

Summary:

While a complete housing market crash due to reciprocal tariffs isn't a foregone conclusion, the concerns expressed by the majority of Americans in the REsimpli survey are valid. The potential impact on supply chains, investor behavior, and affordability could create significant headwinds for the housing market. Staying informed, seeking expert advice, and exercising caution are essential for both homebuyers and investors in this uncertain environment.

Is the housing market about to take a turn? The short answer is yes, but perhaps not the dramatic drop some were expecting. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has adjusted its housing market forecast for 2025, now anticipating existing-home sales to reach 4.3 million, a 6% increase compared to 2024. While still positive, this is a step down from their previous, more optimistic projections.

For months, I've been closely watching the market, speaking with local agents, and analyzing trends. The initial excitement for a booming 2025 is now tempered with a dose of reality. Let's dive into what's causing this revision and what it could mean for you, whether you're a buyer, seller, or simply curious about the real estate world.

NAR Cuts 2025 Housing Market Forecast: Home Sales to Hit 4.3 Million

Why the Change of Heart at NAR?

Back in late 2024, NAR was pretty confident, forecasting existing-home sales to hit 4.9 million in 2025. So what happened? According to their updated NAR Real Estate Forecast Summit Update, several factors contributed to this shift.

• Strained Affordability: This is the big one. Home prices have remained stubbornly high, and while mortgage rates have fluctuated, they haven't dropped enough to significantly ease the burden on potential buyers.
• Price Growth Adjustments: NAR initially predicted a modest 2% home-price growth for both 2025 and 2026. Now, they've revised that upward to 3% and 4%, respectively. This means homes will likely be even less affordable than previously thought.
• Realistic Expectations: I believe part of the revision is simply a dose of realism. While the market has shown resilience, the factors that were expected to fuel a major boom haven't materialized as strongly as anticipated.

A Closer Look at the Revised Numbers

Here's a breakdown of NAR's revised forecasts:

• Existing-Home Sales (2025): 4.3 million (up 6% from 2024) – Previous forecast: 4.9 million
• New-Home Sales (2025): Up 10% – Previous forecast: Up 11%
• Existing-Home Sales (2026): Up 11% (remains within the previously projected range of 10%-15%)
• New-Home Sales (2026): Up 5% – Previous forecast: Up 8%
• Home-Price Growth (2025): 3% – Previous forecast: 2%
• Home-Price Growth (2026): 4% – Previous forecast: 2%

The biggest takeaway? While the market is still expected to grow, the pace of that growth is slowing down.

Is It All Doom and Gloom?

Not at all! Despite the downgraded forecast, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun remains optimistic. He stated on the webinar that “The worst is over [for home sales]. The worst for inventory is over. I think the recession probability is still slim. Job additions, lower mortgage rates and all the factors driving home sales are moving positively, so look for more business opportunities this year.”

And honestly, I agree with his sentiment. The market has been through some rough patches, and the fact that it's still showing signs of growth is encouraging. Several positives are still at play:

• Job Market Stability: A strong job market provides confidence to potential homebuyers.
• Potential for Lower Mortgage Rates: While rates haven't plummeted, the expectation is that they will gradually decrease, making homes more accessible.
• Inventory Slowly Improving: While still below historical averages, housing inventory is slowly increasing in many markets, giving buyers more options.

How Does This Compare to Other Forecasts?

It's important to remember that NAR isn't the only organization making predictions. Their revised forecast of 4.3 million existing-home sales is actually more in line with other industry experts.

To put things in perspective:

• NAR (Revised): 4.3 million
• HousingWire (Mohtashami/Simonsen): 4.2 million
• Realtor.com: 4 million

This suggests that NAR's initial forecast was an outlier, and the revised numbers represent a more consensus view of the market.

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

If you're hoping for a dramatic price crash, this forecast suggests you might be waiting a while. While prices might not skyrocket, they're expected to continue their upward trend.

Here's my advice for buyers:

• Get Pre-Approved: Knowing how much you can afford is crucial.
• Be Realistic: Don't expect to find a bargain. Focus on finding a home that meets your needs within your budget.
• Consider Different Markets: Look at areas that might be slightly more affordable than your ideal location.
• Be Patient: The right home will come along, so don't feel pressured to jump into something you're not comfortable with.
• Do not time the market:*Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

While the market might not be as hot as it was a few years ago, it's still a good time to sell, especially if you've built up equity.

Here's my advice for sellers:

• Price Your Home Competitively: Don't overprice your home. Work with a real estate agent to determine a fair market value.
• Make Necessary Repairs: Ensure your home is in good condition to attract buyers.
• Stage Your Home: Make your home as appealing as possible to potential buyers.
• Highlight the Positives: Emphasize the unique features of your home and neighborhood.

My Personal Take

As someone deeply involved in real estate, I believe the revised forecast is a healthy dose of realism. The initial excitement for a massive boom was probably a bit overblown. The market is still moving in a positive direction, but it's doing so at a more sustainable pace.

I've seen firsthand how affordability challenges are impacting buyers. Many are priced out of their ideal markets, forcing them to make compromises or delay their home-buying dreams. This is why it's crucial to focus on solutions that address affordability, such as increasing housing supply and exploring alternative financing options.

Overall, I remain cautiously optimistic about the future of the housing market. While there are challenges ahead, the fundamentals remain strong. With a stable job market and the potential for lower mortgage rates, I believe the market will continue to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace.

Key Takeaways:

• NAR has downgraded its housing market forecast for 2025, now expecting existing-home sales to reach 4.3 million.
• The revision is primarily due to strained affordability and upward adjustments to home-price growth projections.
• Despite the downgrade, NAR remains optimistic about the market's overall trajectory.
• The revised forecast is more in line with other industry experts' predictions.
• Buyers should focus on affordability and be patient, while sellers should price their homes competitively.

Tables:

Final Thoughts

The housing market is always changing. Stay informed, consult with trusted professionals, and make decisions that are right for your individual circumstances. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on the market, understanding the trends is key to navigating this complex landscape.