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Florida Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

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The Florida housing market has always been a topic of interest for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. With its sunny beaches, vibrant cities, and booming tourism industry, the real estate market in the Sunshine State has seen significant growth over the years. However, with any market experiencing rapid growth, there comes the question of sustainability and the potential for a downturn.

Is Florida's housing market predicted to crash in the next two years? Experts say no. While growth may slow due to rising interest rates, Florida's demographics and rebound predictions suggest a market with staying power. Here are the latest trends in Florida's housing market.

Florida Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

Looking at the Florida Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years, I believe we're stepping into a period where the frantic energy cools down, inventory levels become much healthier, and while widespread massive price drops aren't necessarily on the horizon for the entire state, many areas will see prices stabilize or even dip slightly before finding a new equilibrium, heavily influenced by how interest rates behave.

Having watched the Florida market through multiple cycles – the booms, the corrections, and the quiet times – I've learned that few things are certain, but trends give us clues. And the trends I'm seeing right now point towards a market that's finally taking a breather after running a marathon at a sprinter's pace.

Feeling the Shift: What's Happening Right Now (Early-Mid 2025)

You don't need to be a real estate guru to sense that the market isn't quite as red-hot as it was a year or two ago. The official numbers back that up, painting a picture of a market that's definitely cooling its heels.

Based on the latest housing data released by the Florida Realtors®, Florida's housing market showed some clear signs of this slowdown:

  • Inventory is Building: This is a big one! For what feels like ages, buyers were fighting over crumbs. Now, there are actually more homes to choose from. We saw active listings increasing. For single-family homes, supply reached about a 5.6-month level in April. This is a much healthier number than the super-low levels we saw during the peak frenzy. For condos and townhouses, the build-up is even more significant, hitting a 10.3-month supply. More choices mean buyers aren't under as much pressure to bid way over asking or waive inspections just to get a foot in the door.
  • Prices are Easing (In Some Places): This is perhaps the most talked-about change. While prices are still way up from where they were before the pandemic hit, they aren't climbing like they used to. In fact, the statewide median sale price for single-family homes in April 2025 was $412,734, which was down 4% compared to April 2024. That 4% drop is actually the largest year-over-year decline we've seen since 2011! Condo and townhouse prices also saw a dip, with the median price at $315,000, down 6% year-over-year. This doesn't mean homes are suddenly “cheap,” but the relentless upward march has definitely paused, and in many areas, it's reversed slightly.
  • Sales Volume is Slower: With higher prices (even if slightly easing) and, more importantly, higher mortgage rates, fewer people are able or willing to buy right now. Closed sales for single-family homes were down 4.5% in April 2025 compared to the year before. Condo and townhouse sales took an even bigger hit, down 14.8%. This tells us that while there might be more homes available, the pool of active buyers has shrunk.

Think about what happened over the last few years. Millions of people flocked to Florida, driving demand through the roof. Builders scrambled, but couldn't keep up initially. Then, ultra-low mortgage rates made homes seem more affordable on a monthly basis, even as prices soared. It was the perfect storm for a massive price surge. Now, those dynamics have changed. Migration might be slowing slightly, building has caught up in many areas, and mortgage rates? Well, they've been the biggest game-changer.

As Dr. Brad O'Connor, the Chief Economist for Florida Realtors, put it, affordability is the “No. 1 issue impeding sales growth.” And he's absolutely right. Even if prices dip a bit, the monthly payment on a loan at 7% or 8% is dramatically higher than one at 3% or 4%. That monthly cost is what most buyers care about most.

Why Florida Might Feel the Cool Down More Than Others

The national housing market picture looks a little different than Florida's specific situation right now. According to the latest insights from Cotality (Formerly CoreLogic), nationally, home price growth has slowed, but it was still positive overall – around 2.0% year-over-year in April 2025. So, why is Florida showing negative growth (-0.8% in April 2025) while the U.S. is still positive?

This is where my personal experience observing market extremes comes in. Florida wasn't just hot; it was exceptionally hot. Many areas saw prices double or more in just a couple of years. That kind of meteoric rise is often followed by a more pronounced correction or period of stagnation compared to areas that saw more modest growth. It's like a rubber band – the further you stretch it, the harder it snaps back.

Furthermore, Florida faces unique headwinds that some other states don't, or at least not to the same degree:

  • Skyrocketing Insurance Costs: This is a major factor I hear about constantly. Homeowners insurance premiums in Florida have gone through the roof due to hurricane risks and issues within the insurance market. This adds hundreds, sometimes thousands, of dollars to the monthly cost of homeownership, making affordability even worse beyond just the mortgage payment. This burden disproportionately affects Florida homeowners compared to many other states.
  • Property Taxes: As home values soared, so did property taxes (often with a delay due to caps like the Save Our Homes amendment, but they still rise significantly over time, especially on newly purchased properties). This is another significant ongoing cost.
  • Investor Activity: Florida attracted a huge amount of investor money during the boom, both domestic and international. As the market cools and short-term rental income becomes less certain (due to increased competition and potential regulations), some investors might look to exit, adding more inventory to the market and putting downward pressure on prices, especially in popular investment areas.

Look at the list of the “coolest” markets in the U.S. right now, the places seeing the biggest price declines. According to Cotality, four out of the top five are in Florida: Cape Coral (-6.5%), Punta Gorda (-6.2%), North Port (-4.3%), and Naples (-3.7%). These are areas that experienced incredible growth, driven in part by migration and investor interest, and are now course-correcting sharply.

Even the list of the top 5 most at-risk markets in the entire U.S. are all in Florida: Cape Coral, Lakeland, North Port, St. Petersburg, and West Palm Beach. This isn't a coincidence; it reflects the severity of the preceding boom in these specific areas and the unique pressures Florida is facing.

Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, noted that the majority of markets with annual price declines are concentrated in Florida and Texas, two states that saw massive inward migration and price run-ups. Florida's median price even dipped below the national median recently, falling out of the top 20 most expensive states – another sign of this course correction.

The Big Question: Florida Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years

Forecasting is always tricky, especially in a market with so many moving parts. However, based on the current data, expert opinions, and the underlying dynamics, here's how I see the Florida housing market potentially playing out over 2025 and into 2026:

Scenario 1: Mortgage Rates Stay “Higher for Longer” (Most Likely Path, at Least Initially)

If mortgage rates hover in the high 6% or 7%+ range, the trends we see now are likely to continue for the first part of this two-year window:

  • Continued Inventory Growth: More homeowners who held off selling will eventually list their properties due to life changes. New construction, while perhaps slowing slightly from its peak pace, will continue to add supply. Buyers will remain cautious due to financing costs. This means inventory levels should continue to rise, putting buyers in a stronger negotiating position.
  • Further Price Stabilization or Modest Declines: With more supply and limited demand (at current rates), competition among sellers will increase. This doesn't mean a crash, but it suggests prices will likely remain flat or see further small declines in many areas. The areas currently seeing the biggest drops (like Cape Coral, North Port, etc.) might continue to fall until they reach a level buyers find more palatable, especially considering insurance costs. Markets with less oversupply or stronger underlying local economies might fare better, seeing prices merely plateau.
  • Slow Sales Volume: Transactions will likely remain subdued compared to the boom years. Buyers who do purchase will likely be those with urgent needs, those paying cash (Florida has a high percentage of cash buyers), or those accepting the current cost of borrowing.
  • Condo Market Struggles Continue: The challenges facing the condo market – high insurance, rising association fees driven by new reserve requirements, and financing hurdles – are significant structural issues. I expect these will continue to weigh heavily on condo prices and sales volume throughout this period, potentially underperforming single-family homes statewide.

Scenario 2: Mortgage Rates Fall Towards 6% or Below (Potential for Mid- to Late-2026)

This is the wildcard, but one mentioned by both Dr. O'Connor and Dr. Hepp as a potential game-changer. If inflation comes under control and the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, mortgage rates could drift lower. If they move towards the 6% mark or even slightly below:

  • Latent Demand Awakens: There are many potential buyers sitting on the sidelines right now, either priced out by monthly payments or simply waiting for conditions to improve. A drop in rates would significantly lower the monthly cost of homeownership, suddenly making purchasing feasible for a larger group.
  • Increased Buyer Competition: As demand picks up, the pressure on sellers would ease. While inventory might still be higher than the boom, a surge in buyer activity could start to absorb that supply.
  • Price Stabilization and Potential Modest Growth: If demand increases significantly due to lower rates, the downward pressure on prices would likely reverse. Instead of declines, we could see prices stabilize and then begin to tick upwards again, though likely at a much more sustainable pace than the 2020-2022 period. The national forecast from Cotality suggested a 4.3% national price increase between April 2025 and April 2026. If Florida's unique headwinds (insurance, taxes) don't worsen dramatically, a drop in rates could potentially help Florida start to catch up to or participate in that national trend later in the forecast window.
  • Increased Sales Volume: More buyers being able to afford homes means more transactions happening.

My Assessment for 2025-2026:

Based on the information and my own observations, my forecast leans towards a continuation of the current cooling trend through much of 2025, followed by a period of stabilization or very modest recovery in 2026, assuming interest rates either plateau or begin a gradual decline.

  • 2025: Expect more of what we're seeing now. Inventory continues to build gradually. Prices statewide likely remain flat or experience small, single-digit percentage declines, especially in the most overheated markets. Sales volume stays muted. Affordability remains the primary challenge, heavily impacted by both mortgage rates and rising insurance costs.
  • 2026: This year holds more potential variability depending on the interest rate environment.
    • If rates stay high: Continuation of 2025 trends, perhaps with slower declines as the market finds a floor.
    • If rates ease: We could see demand pick up, inventory growth slow, and prices begin to stabilize or show slight positive growth, maybe in the low single digits by the end of the year. Sales volume would increase.

I don't anticipate a market “crash” like 2008, primarily because lending standards have been much stricter this time around, and there isn't a massive overhang of distressed properties (at least not yet). This feels more like a necessary market correction and normalization after an unsustainable boom. The key difference from the national picture is that Florida's adjustment is starting from a much higher peak and is influenced by those unique Florida-specific costs like insurance.

What to Watch For

Keeping an eye on these key factors will be crucial in understanding how the forecast might shift:

  • Interest Rates: This is the single biggest lever. Watch the Federal Reserve and economic data. Any significant move down will likely inject life back into the market.
  • Inventory Levels: Is supply continuing to pile up, or are more buyers starting to absorb it? Different areas will show different trends.
  • Insurance Market Stability: If insurance costs continue to rise unchecked, it will act as a major drag on affordability and demand, even if mortgage rates fall. Reforms or stabilization here could provide unexpected support.
  • Migration Patterns: Is Florida still attracting lots of new residents, or is the pace slowing down, perhaps even seeing some outflow due to costs?
  • Job Market: A strong economy and job market support housing demand. Any weakening here could negatively impact the forecast.

Takeaway: In my opinion, this cooling period is a healthy adjustment for the Florida market. It's creating a more balanced environment after years of extreme conditions. While it might feel less exciting than the boom, it's setting the stage for potentially more sustainable growth down the road, once affordability improves, whether through lower rates, higher wages, or some combination. The next two years will be fascinating to watch unfold.

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U.S. States With Lowest Mortgage Rates Today – June 25, 2025

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If you're looking for the U.S. states with the lowest mortgage rates today, June 25, 2025, your search ends here! As of today, the states boasting the cheapest 30-year new purchase mortgage rates are Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, California, Connecticut, Washington, Maryland, and New Jersey. These states registered average rates between 6.73% and 6.81%. On the flip side, states like Alaska, West Virginia, Iowa, South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, Wyoming, Alabama, and Nevada have the highest 30-year new purchase mortgage rates, ranging from 6.90% to 7.01%.

U.S. States With Lowest Mortgage Rates Today – June 25, 2025

Buying a house is a huge step, and it all starts with those mortgage rates. Let's be honest, understanding the world of mortgages can feel like trying to decipher a secret code. Rates are always changing, and they seem to depend on everything from the economy to, well, who knows what else!

That's why I'm here to break it all down for you, specifically looking at which states are offering the most attractive mortgage rates as of today, June 25, 2025. Mortgage rates can fluctuate significantly from state to state. Why the difference? Keep reading; I'll spill the tea.

Why Do Mortgage Rates Vary By State?

It's a great question because it's not something that everyone understands. I think it's crucial to know the “why's” as well as the “what's.” Here's what I've gathered over time:

  • Different Lenders: Not every lender operates in every state. This means the playing field is different depending on where you are buying. More competition can lead to more favorable rates.
  • Credit Scores: Average credit scores can vary across states. States with higher average credit scores might see slightly better rates overall.
  • Average Loan Size: The size of the average mortgage can also play a role. Large loans may carry different interest rates than smaller loans.
  • State Regulations: Each state has different regulations affecting the mortgage industry. This can influence how lenders operate and, in turn, the rates they offer.
  • Risk Management: Lenders each have their own risk management strategies. Some lenders might be more willing to offer lower rates in certain areas than others.

Here's a quick table summarizing the reasons:

Factor How It Affects Mortgage Rates
Lender Variety More competition can lead to lower rates
Credit Scores Higher averages generally mean better rates
Loan Size Can affect the risk calculation for the lender
State Regulations Influences lender operations and rate offerings
Risk Management Individual lender strategies impact offered rates

The Good News: States With Lower Mortgage Rates

Alright, let's talk about the good stuff. According to a report by Investopedia, as of today, June 25, 2025, these states are offering some of the most competitive 30-year new purchase mortgage rates:

  • Colorado: Historically, Colorado has a booming real estate, so it's not surprising that it is on the list.
  • Massachusetts: This is an attractive state for many to buy new homes.
  • New York: I wouldn't have expected New York to be on this list.
  • California: Similar to Colorado, California has good real estate, even though it is a bit more expensive to buy there.
  • Connecticut: It is nice to be in New England, so I don't think it is so surprising.
  • Washington: The Pacific Northwest is a beautiful area.
  • Maryland: Mid-Atlantic is a hotspot.
  • New Jersey: It is interesting to see both New York and New Jersey on these list. These are usually known to be higher-rate states.

These states have average rates hovering between 6.73% and 6.81%.

The Other Side: States With Higher Mortgage Rates

Now for the not-so-great news. These states are currently showing the highest 30-year new purchase mortgage rates:

  • Alaska
  • West Virginia
  • Iowa
  • South Dakota
  • New Mexico
  • North Dakota
  • Wyoming
  • Alabama
  • Nevada

In these states, rates are averaging between 6.90% and 7.01%.

National Mortgage Rate Trends: A Rollercoaster Ride

Let’s zoom out and look at the big picture. According to the Investopedia report, national mortgage rates have been on something of a rollercoaster. Just today, June 25, 2025, rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages fell by 2 basis points, making it a total drop of 7 basis points over the past two days. The average is now at 6.84%, the lowest it's been since April 4th! It's quite the contrast to mid-May, where rates reached a yearly high of 7.15%.

Digging deeper, March 2025 saw rates dip to 6.50%, the lowest average for the year. But the real standout was September of last year when rates bottomed out at a two-year low of 5.89%. Talk about variance!

A Word of Caution About “Teaser Rates”

It's tempting to jump on those super-low rates you see advertised online. We've all been there! But here’s a little insider info: those are often teaser rates. As Investopedia rightly mentions, these “cherry-picked” rates might require you to pay points upfront or might only be available to borrowers with pristine credit and smaller-than-average loans. The rate you ultimately get will depend on your unique financial situation, including your credit score, income, and other factors.

Pro-Tip: ALWAYS Shop Around!

Let me give you some advice – ALWAYS shop around for the best mortgage rates! Seriously, don’t settle for the first offer you get. Shopping around allows you to compare offers from different lenders, potentially saving you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. With websites such as Zillow, it seems to make life so much easier. Don’t leave money on the table because you don’t feel like putting in the effort.

What's Driving These Rate Changes?

Mortgage rates aren't just pulled out of thin air. Several factors influence them:

  • The Bond Market: Keep an eye on 10-year Treasury yields. These have a significant impact on mortgage rates.
  • The Federal Reserve: The Fed's monetary policy, especially bond-buying programs, plays a crucial role.
  • Lender Competition: The more lenders compete, the better the rates for you.

It's tough to pinpoint one single cause for rate changes because these factors often move together. For much of 2021, the Fed's response to the pandemic kept rates low. But since then, they've been adjusting course, leading to some pretty wild swings.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Mortgage Rates?

Predicting the future is never easy, especially regarding mortgage rates. But here's what I'm watching. In the past, the Fed aggressively raised rates to combat inflation. However, recently, the Fed has been more cautious, even hinting at potential rate cuts down the line. With eight rate-setting meetings scheduled each year, we could see multiple announcements about holding rates steady throughout 2025.

Understanding How Your Credit Score Messes With Rates

If you want to get a mortgage, you want a higher credit score, but it's easier said than done! The better your credit score, the lower the mortgage rate a lender is likely to offer. Experian says the best rates generally go to those with scores of 760 or higher. Aim for a VantageScore of 780 or higher for the best mortgage rates available. The takeaway here is: if you can't improve your credit rating, you need to find a good co-signer or consider renting; it might give you more time to save up for a bigger downpayment.

Calculate Your Monthly Mortgage Payment

Want to get a sense of what your monthly mortgage payments might look like? Here's a breakdown, based on a home price of $440,000 and a 20% down payment:

  • Home Price: $440,000
  • Down Payment: $88,000 (20%)
  • Loan Term: 30 years
  • APR: 6.67%

Based on these figures, your estimated monthly payment would be around $2,649.04. That includes $2,264.38 for principal and interest, $256.67 for property taxes, and $128.00 for homeowners insurance. It's also important to understand that over the life of the loan, you'll pay a significant amount of interest. In this scenario, the total mortgage interest paid would be $463,176.16, bringing the total amount paid to $815,176.16. Again keep in mind that these numbers are all estimates, if you have a variable interest rate.

Final Thoughts: Navigating the world of mortgage rates can be tricky, but understanding the factors that influence them can help you make informed decisions. Keep an eye on economic trends, shop around for the best rates, and don't be afraid to ask questions. Happy house hunting!

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Mortgage Rates Today June 25, 2025: Rates Drop Across the Board, Offering Significant Savings

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As of June 25, 2025, mortgage rates have seen a slight decrease, providing potential homeowners and those looking to refinance a bit of financial reprieve. The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.81%, a dip from 6.83% the day before. This drop reflects a larger picture where rates were at 6.91% just a week earlier. For many, this drop in rates could mean significant savings in monthly payments and overall interest expenses.

Mortgage Rates Today – June 25, 2025: Rates Drop Across the Board

Key Takeaways:

  • The national average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.81%, down from 6.91% last week.
  • 15-year fixed mortgage rates are stable at 5.87%.
  • The 5-year ARM rate has increased to 7.39%.
  • National refinance rates for the 30-year fixed loan are currently approximately 7.10%.
  • Predictions suggest that mortgage rates may hover around the mid-6% range for the remainder of 2025.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

Understanding today’s mortgage rates involves exploring various loan types available in the market. Here’s how the current mortgage rates stack up as of June 25, 2025:

Loan Type Current Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.81% -0.02% 7.35% -0.02%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.51% -0.07% 7.01% +0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.87% -0.09% 6.24% -0.03%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.85% -0.08% 6.04% -0.03%
7-Year ARM 7.44% 0.00% 8.02% +0.20%
5-Year ARM 7.39% +0.19% 7.99% +0.19%

(Source: Zillow, June 25, 2025)

Current Refinance Rates

If you’re considering refinancing your home loan, the current offer provides an array of rates you might find accommodating. National refinance rates have remained relatively stable, making it a good time for many homeowners. Here is a breakdown of the current refinance rates:

Loan Type Current Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change
30-Year Fixed Rate 7.10% -0.06% 7.33% -0.04%
15-Year Fixed Rate 6.01% +0.08% 6.22% -0.04%
5-Year ARM 8.04% +0.11% 8.25% +0.15%

Monthly Mortgage Payments Based on Current Rates

When it comes to buying a home, understanding how mortgage rates translate into your budget is essential. Here, we present estimates for monthly payments based on the current rate of 6.81% for a 30-year fixed mortgage.

Monthly Payment on a $300,000 Mortgage

For a typical $300,000 mortgage, the estimated monthly payment (excluding taxes and insurance) at 6.81% is approximately $1,946. In the early years of a mortgage, most of the payment goes toward interest, meaning a significant portion of your expenses is primarily interest.

Monthly Payment on a $400,000 Mortgage

Now, moving to a $400,000 mortgage, at the same interest rate, results in an estimated monthly payment of about $2,595. This amount underlines the financial responsibility of homeownership and emphasizes the necessity for a well-planned budget.

Monthly Payment on a $500,000 Mortgage

For those considering a larger purchase, the monthly payment for a $500,000 mortgage would be approximately $3,243. Larger loans mean larger financial commitments, stressing the importance of understanding one’s budget and potential costs.

Mortgage Amount Estimated Monthly Payment
$300,000 $1,946
$400,000 $2,595
$500,000 $3,243

Understanding the Impacts of Interest Rates on Homeownership

The fluctuations in mortgage rates can significantly impact prospective buyers. As home prices have risen over the past few years in many markets, the cost of borrowing needs to be considered in conjunction with property prices. An increase in interest rates can mean a drastically altered monthly payment. If rates rise while home prices remain steady or increase, many potential buyers may find themselves priced out of the market.

Impact of Interest Rate Changes:

  • Affordability: Increased rates mean higher monthly payments, which can squeeze budgets, making homes less affordable.
  • Buying Power: A drop in rates could improve buying power, allowing individuals to consider homes that were previously beyond their financial reach.

Additionally, individuals should be aware of how these changes affect their ability to refinance. Lower rates can also encourage current homeowners to lock in better terms than before, solidifying their financial health.

Are Mortgage Rates Expected to Go Down?

The future of mortgage rates is uncertain, but several analysts predict that rates may stabilize or see a modest decrease. According to the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), home sales are expected to rise significantly in 2025, which could create a more favorable environment for buyers. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR, has indicated that the second half of 2025 might average mortgage rates around 6.4%, which would further boost affordability.

In contrast, the Mortgage Bankers Association suggests rates could remain steady in the mid-6% range as inflation continues to be a concern, potentially pushing rates back up towards the end of the year. The interplay of economic factors means that predictions vary widely. These fluctuations showcase the complexities of the current mortgage landscape.

Current Economic Indicators Affecting Mortgage Rates

Economic indicators also play a crucial role in shaping mortgage rates. When the U.S. economy heads into a downturn or uncertainty arises, rates can fall, stimulating buying activity. Some key economic indicators to remain aware of are:

  1. Inflation Rates: High inflation can lead to increased interest rates as lenders aim to maintain their profit margins.
  2. Employment Rates: Strong employment numbers can boost consumer confidence, potentially driving home sales up and affecting rates positively.
  3. The Federal Reserve’s Actions: Decisions made by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates set the tone for all other rates in the economy, including mortgages.

Final Thoughts on Current Mortgage Rates

Staying informed about today’s mortgage rates is vital for those looking to purchase a home or refinance. The slight decrease can open more doors for potential buyers. It’s essential to grasp how these rates influence monthly payments and the overall affordability of homeownership. Each decision in this arena should be made with careful consideration of current economic conditions, individual financial circumstances, and forecasts about future rates.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

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U.S. States With Lowest Mortgage Rates Today – June 24, 2025

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Looking for the states where you can snag the best deal on a mortgage right now? As of today, June 24, 2025, the U.S. states with the lowest mortgage rates for a 30-year new purchase are Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, Utah, California, Virginia, Washington, and Maryland, with rates averaging between 6.77% and 6.81%.

U.S. States With Lowest Mortgage Rates Today – June 24, 2025

Buying a home is a huge decision, and understanding mortgage rates is a critical part of the process. I know, it can feel overwhelming, but don't worry, I'm here to break it down for you. Mortgage rates are constantly in flux, influenced by a whole host of economic factors. And they can vary significantly from state to state, so it's crucial to stay informed to find the best deal for you.

Why Do Mortgage Rates Vary By State?

It's a fair question. Why doesn't everyone just get the same rate, no matter where they live? Well, several factors contribute to these state-level differences. Mortgage rates vary by state primarily because:

  • Lender Presence: Not all lenders operate in every state. This means competition can be stronger in some areas than others, and that competition can drive rates down.
  • Credit Score Variations: Average credit scores differ from state to state. Lenders will perceive different levels of risk depending on the creditworthiness of a specific state’s population.
  • Average Loan Size: Just as credit scores may differ, the average loan size can also be impacted by differing states. This could also affect the lender.
  • State Regulations: Mortgage regulations aren't uniform across the country. Some states have stricter rules than others, which can impact lenders' costs and, ultimately, the rates they offer.
  • Risk Management: Lenders each have different risk management tactics that can influence the rates they offer.

Think of it like this: imagine two grocery stores in different towns. One town has more competition and stricter regulations on food safety, while the other doesn't. The store in the more competitive, regulated town might have to offer lower prices and higher quality to attract customers. Mortgage rates work in a similar way.

The Best and Worst: A State-by-State Breakdown

As Investopedia's report highlights, let's dive deeper into which states are offering the best and least attractive mortgage rates right now.

States with the Lowest 30-Year New Purchase Mortgage Rates:

State Average Rate
Colorado 6.77%
Massachusetts 6.78%
New York 6.79%
Utah 6.79%
California 6.80%
Virginia 6.80%
Washington 6.80%
Maryland 6.81%

States with the Highest 30-Year New Purchase Mortgage Rates:

State Average Rate
Alaska 6.93%
West Virginia 6.95%
North Dakota 6.96%
Iowa 6.97%
Kansas 6.99%
Maine 7.00%
Mississippi 7.00%
Nebraska 7.01%
Vermont 7.02%

Keep in mind that these are averages. Your individual rate could differ based on your unique financial situation.

What About National Mortgage Rate Averages?

While it's interesting to see state-level differences, it's also important to keep an eye on the national picture. According to recent data, the national average for a 30-year new purchase mortgage has fallen to 6.86% today, a two-and-a-half-month low. This is a welcome change from the 7.15% peak we saw in mid-May 2025.

Here's a quick snapshot of national averages for different loan types:

  • 30-Year Fixed: 6.86%
  • FHA 30-Year Fixed: 7.55%
  • 15-Year Fixed: 5.88%
  • Jumbo 30-Year Fixed: 6.81%
  • 5/6 ARM: 7.09%

As you can see, there's a range of options, each with its own pros and cons. Deciding which loan is right for you requires weighing your short-term and long-term financials, your long-term housing goals, and level of risk tolerance.

Don't Get Duped by “Teaser Rates”

You've probably seen super-low mortgage rates advertised online. These are often called “teaser rates,” and they can be misleading. Investopedia points out that these rates are often “cherry-picked” as the most attractive, and they might come with hidden costs or strict requirements.

For example, some teaser rates require you to pay “points” upfront (each point is 1% of the loan amount). Others might be based on a borrower with a near-perfect credit score or a smaller-than-typical loan amount.

The rate you ultimately secure will be based on factors like your credit score, income, and more. So, it can vary significantly from the averages you see here.

What's Driving These Rate Changes?

Understanding why mortgage rates go up or down can help you make smarter decisions about when to buy or refinance. Several factors are at play:

  • The Bond Market: Mortgage rates tend to follow the direction of the bond market, especially yields on 10-year Treasury bonds. When bond yields rise, mortgage rates usually follow suit.
  • The Federal Reserve: The Fed's monetary policy has a big impact. The Fed influences mortgage rates through bond buying and funding government-backed mortgages.
  • Competition: The level of competition between mortgage lenders can also affect rates. When lenders are competing fiercely for business, they may lower rates to attract borrowers.

The Fed Factor: What's the Latest?

The Federal Reserve's actions play a particularly important role in the mortgage market.

After aggressively raising interest rates in 2022 and 2023 to combat decades-high inflation, the Fed paused rate hikes for a while. In September 2024, they decreased the rate. In 2025, the Fed continued on its previous path of holding rates steady, reflecting caution about the ongoing economic situation.

These actions, directly and indirectly, influence mortgage rates. Even though the fed funds rate often does not directly influence mortgage rates, they do tend to move in similar directions. Economists keep a close eye on the actions that the Federal Reserve undertakes to get an idea of where rates will go in the future.

What About the Future? Expert Predictions

What does 2025 and beyond hold for mortgage rates? According to Fannie Mae's Forecast, mortgage rates are predicted to end 2025 at 6.5% and 2026 at 6.1%.

Keep in mind that these are just forecasts, and the future is never certain. Economic conditions can change quickly, throwing even the best predictions off course.

My Advice: Shop Around and Be Prepared

So, what's the takeaway?

  • Mortgage rates vary by state. Don't assume that the national average applies to you.
  • “Teaser rates” can be misleading. Focus on the rate you're actually offered, not the one advertised online.
  • Stay informed about economic trends and the Federal Reserve's actions.
  • Get pre-approved: This will give you a clear idea of how much you can borrow and what interest rate you can expect.
  • Don't be afraid to negotiate. Mortgage lenders want your business, so see if you can negotiate a better rate or terms.

As someone who has been in the real estate business for 20+ years, I always tell people, “Knowledge is power,” and when it comes to mortgages, that's especially true. Good luck with your home-buying journey!

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Today’s 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Soars by 17 Basis Points – June 24, 2025

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Mortgage rates can feel like a rollercoaster, and understanding the options can be overwhelming. As of today, June 24, 2025, the national average 5-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rate stands at 7.25%. This article will explore what that means for you, diving deep into the pros and cons of a 5-year ARM, and helping you decide if it's the right path to homeownership or refinancing.

Today's 5-Year Adjustable Rate Mortgage Soars by 17 Basis Points – June 24, 2025

Buying a home is a huge decision, and choosing the right mortgage is just as critical. You've probably heard about fixed-rate mortgages, but Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) offer something different. Let's be honest, the mortgage world can be confusing. It's tempting to just grab the first option that seems reasonable, but understanding the nuances – especially with ARMs – can save you serious money and stress in the long run. I've seen firsthand how borrowers who take the time to understand their options end up in a much better financial situation.

What Exactly is a 5-Year ARM?

A 5-year ARM is a type of mortgage where the interest rate is fixed for the first five years and then adjusts periodically, usually once a year, based on prevailing market conditions.

Here's the breakdown:

  • Fixed-Rate Period: For the first five years, you'll enjoy the stability of a fixed interest rate and consistent monthly payments. This is the “honeymoon” phase!
  • Adjustment Period: After the initial five years, your interest rate will adjust based on an index, such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus a margin (a fixed percentage added by the lender).
  • Rate Caps: ARMs typically have rate caps that limit how much the interest rate can increase at each adjustment period and over the life of the loan. These caps offer some protection against drastic rate hikes.

Current Mortgage Rate Snapshot: June 24, 2025

Before we delve deeper into 5-year ARMs, let's take a look at where the broader mortgage market stands today:

Loan Program Rate 1 Week Change APR 1 Week Change
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.83% Down 0.08% 7.29% Down 0.08%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.51% Down 0.07% 7.01% Up 0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.87% Down 0.09% 6.17% Down 0.09%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.85% Down 0.08% 6.04% Down 0.03%
7-Year ARM 7.44% 0.00% 8.02% Up 0.20%
5-Year ARM 7.25% Up 0.17% 7.85% Up 0.17%
3-Year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Source: Zillow

Why Consider a 5-Year ARM? Weighing the Pros

Even though the rates are higher than the 30 year and 15 year fixed, there are some valid reasons for using these ARMs.

  • Lower Initial Interest Rate: Historically, 5-year ARMs often start with a lower interest rate compared to 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. While today's rate of 7.25% is higher than the 30-year fixed-rate of 6.83% and 15-year fixed rate of 5.87% the difference sometimes can be a financial draw.
  • Potential Savings: If interest rates remain stable or decrease during the initial fixed-rate period and beyond, you could save money on interest payments over the life of the loan.
  • Flexibility: A 5-year ARM can be a good option if you plan to move or refinance within five years. You're not locked into a long-term commitment at a higher rate if rates were to drop.
  • Investment Opportunities: The potential savings from a lower initial rate could be invested elsewhere, potentially generating a higher return than the interest saved.

The Other Side of the Coin: The Cons of a 5-Year ARM

It's not all sunshine and roses. There are risks involved:

  • Interest Rate Risk: The biggest risk is that interest rates could rise after the fixed-rate period ends, leading to higher monthly payments.
  • Complexity: ARMs can be more complex than fixed-rate mortgages, making it harder to understand the potential risks and benefits.
  • Uncertainty: Predicting future interest rates is nearly impossible. You could be gambling on market conditions.
  • Refinancing Risk: If interest rates rise significantly, refinancing might not be an option, leaving you stuck with a higher rate.

Who Should Consider a 5-Year ARM?

A 5-year ARM might be a suitable option for you if:

  • You Plan to Move Soon: If you anticipate moving within the next five years, you can take advantage of the lower initial rate without worrying about long-term rate adjustments.
  • You Expect Your Income to Increase: If you expect your income to increase significantly in the coming years, you might be able to absorb potential rate increases.
  • You're Comfortable with Risk: If you're comfortable with the possibility of rising interest rates and higher monthly payments, a 5-year ARM could be a good option.
  • You Have a Solid Financial Plan: Make sure you have a plan B in case you have to refinance.

Factors Influencing ARM Rates

Several factors influence 5-year ARM rates:

  • Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly its decisions on interest rates, have a significant impact on mortgage rates.
  • Economic Growth: A strong economy typically leads to higher interest rates, while a weak economy can lead to lower rates.
  • Inflation: High inflation can push interest rates higher as lenders demand a higher return to compensate for the erosion of purchasing power.
  • Global Events: Global events, such as political instability or economic crises, can also influence mortgage rates.

What to Ask Your Lender

If you're considering a 5-year ARM, be sure to ask your lender these crucial questions:

  • What is the index used to determine the interest rate adjustment?
  • What is the margin added to the index?
  • What are the rate caps (both periodic and lifetime)?
  • How often will the interest rate adjust?
  • What is the worst-case scenario for my monthly payments?

5-Year ARM vs. Other Loan Types: A Quick Comparison

To make a better decision, let's compare the 5-year ARM to other common mortgage options:

Loan Type Interest Rate Payment Stability Risk Level Best For
5-Year ARM Initially Lower Fixed for 5 years, then adjusts Moderate Those planning to move or refinance within 5 years, comfortable with some risk
30-Year Fixed Higher Fixed for 30 years Low Those seeking payment stability and long-term security
15-Year Fixed Lower Fixed for 15 years Low Those who want to pay off their mortgage quickly and save on interest, but can afford higher monthly payments

My Personal Take: Proceed with Caution

In my experience, 5-year ARMs can be a useful tool, but they're not for everyone. I always advise potential borrowers to carefully assess their risk tolerance, financial situation, and long-term plans before opting for an ARM. Understand the math and don’t get seduced by the lower initial rate if you are not confident about handling future adjustments.

Conclusion:

Deciding whether or not to choose a 5-year ARM on June 24, 2025, or any other day for that matter, depends entirely on your individual circumstances. Weigh the pros and cons, understand the risks, and seek advice from a qualified mortgage professional. Armed with knowledge, you can make a confident decision that aligns with your financial goals.

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15 Housing Markets Facing the Steepest Decline in Home Prices

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Thinking about buying or selling a home? The housing market is always a hot topic, and right now, it's even more interesting. Several factors are at play, from mortgage rates to the availability of homes, and these are all impacting where prices are headed. According to the latest projections, while some markets are expected to remain stable or even increase in value, others are facing potential price declines. So, where are home values expected to drop the most?

Based on current forecasts, the 15 housing markets set for the biggest price decline over the next year are primarily concentrated in the South, with Mississippi and Texas leading the way. These markets could see significant drops in home values, presenting both challenges and opportunities for buyers and sellers. Let’s explore these markets and what the future might hold.

Why the Housing Market is Shifting

Before we get into the specific markets, it's important to understand the bigger picture. Several factors are contributing to the anticipated price declines in certain areas. The two key factors seem to be rising inventory and high-interest rates.

  • Rising Housing Inventory: More homes on the market mean more options for buyers, and that naturally puts downward pressure on prices. As sellers return to the market, they may need to lower their prices to attract buyers.
  • Elevated Mortgage Rates: High mortgage rates make buying a home more expensive. When borrowing money costs more, fewer people can afford to buy. This decreases demand, which can lead to price drops.
  • Labor Market Concerns: Uncertainty about jobs and the overall economy can also impact the housing market. If people are worried about losing their jobs, they're less likely to make big purchases like homes. This reduced confidence further cools the market.

Zillow's latest forecast predicts a 1.4% dip in home values this year, mainly due to the increase in available homes. This forecast is in line with what they projected last month, indicating a consistent trend. While sales are expected to rise by 1.9% compared to 2024, this increase isn't enough to offset the impact of higher inventory on prices.

15 Housing Markets Facing the Steepest Decline in Home Prices

Okay, let's break down the 15 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) predicted to see the biggest home price drops, according to the latest data from Zillow:

Region Name Region Type State Name Price Change (June 30, 2025) Price Change (August 31, 2025) Price Change (May 31, 2026)
Greenville, MS msa MS -2.6% -5.5% -15%
Pecos, TX msa TX -1.5% -3.8% -14.2%
Clarksdale, MS msa MS -3.1% -7.3% -13.6%
Cleveland, MS msa MS -2% -5.1% -13.4%
Bennettsville, SC msa SC -3% -6% -12.9%
Raymondville, TX msa TX -2.1% -4.9% -12.1%
Opelousas, LA msa LA -1.9% -4.6% -11.6%
Morgan City, LA msa LA -2.6% -5.7% -10.6%
Big Spring, TX msa TX -0.4% -2.2% -10.5%
Natchez, MS msa LA -2.6% -5.3% -10.3%
Zapata, TX msa TX -1.8% -3.5% -10.3%
Helena, AR msa AR -1% -2.1% -10.2%
Indianola, MS msa MS -2.6% -4.9% -10.1%
Johnstown, PA msa PA -1.6% -4.5% -10%
Hobbs, NM msa NM -0.5% -1.7% -10%

Let's take a closer look at each of these areas.

Deep Dive into the Declining Housing Markets

Here’s a closer look at what might be causing the downturn in these particular regions:

  1. Greenville, MS: Located in the Mississippi Delta, Greenville's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture. Fluctuations in commodity prices and agricultural yields can significantly impact the housing market. The projected 15% decline by May 2026 suggests deeper economic challenges in the area.
  2. Pecos, TX: Pecos has seen rapid growth due to the energy sector, particularly oil and gas. However, this growth is volatile and directly tied to commodity prices. A 14.2% decline indicates cooling in the energy sector may be impacting housing demand.
  3. Clarksdale, MS: Clarksdale, known as the “Home of the Blues,” faces similar economic challenges as other Mississippi Delta regions. A high poverty rate and limited job opportunities may be driving the projected 13.6% price decline.
  4. Cleveland, MS: Like its neighboring cities in Mississippi, Cleveland's economy is also challenged. Limited economic opportunities and slow population growth result in a predicted drop of 13.4%.
  5. Bennettsville, SC: Bennettsville is a smaller market facing economic headwinds related to declining manufacturing and limited diversification in employment opportunities that could be causing a 12.9% drop.
  6. Raymondville, TX: Located near the Texas-Mexico border, Raymondville's economy is tied to international trade and agriculture. Economic uncertainties related to trade policies and weather-related agriculture risks could explain the 12.1% decline.
  7. Opelousas, LA: Opelousas, a small city in Louisiana, faces challenges common to rural areas, including limited job growth and aging infrastructure. The 11.6% decrease reflects these underlying economic issues.
  8. Morgan City, LA: Reliant on the oil and gas industry, Morgan City faces volatility with energy market fluctuations. A 10.6% drop would suggest the oil market is softening here.
  9. Big Spring, TX: Another Texas city dependent on the energy industry, Big Spring's housing market is susceptible to the ups and downs of oil prices. The 10.5% decline may stem from reduced activity in the oil fields.
  10. Natchez, MS: Natchez, known for its historic homes and tourism, is still a smaller market in a state with broader economic challenges. A 10.3% decline may signify deeper problems than just high-interest rates.
  11. Zapata, TX: Zapata's proximity to the border makes it vulnerable to trade fluctuations and economic policies impacting cross-border activities. A 10.3% drop in housing could reflect these vulnerabilities.
  12. Helena, AR: Helena faces significant economic hardships, including high unemployment and poverty rates, which have had a profound effect on the value of the housing market leading to projected losses of 10.2%.
  13. Indianola, MS: Indianola, like other Mississippi Delta cities, struggles with limited economic diversification and a shrinking population. A 10.1% decline illustrates the broader economic struggles of the region.
  14. Johnstown, PA: Johnstown, located in southwestern Pennsylvania, has been grappling with a shrinking population and a shift away from its historical industrial base. With a projected dip of 10% there could be opportunities for new growth in other markets.
  15. Hobbs, NM: Hobbs, located in southeastern New Mexico, is part of the Permian Basin, a significant oil and gas production region. A 10% decline would imply that this is not a market where growth is expected in the near future.

What Does This Mean for You?

The potential price declines in these markets present both opportunities and risks, depending on your situation:

  • For Buyers: If you're looking to buy in these areas, you might be able to negotiate a better price or find more affordable options. However, be aware that these markets may face economic challenges. Do your research!
  • For Sellers: If you're selling, it's important to be realistic about pricing. You might need to lower your expectations and be prepared to wait longer to sell your home.
  • For Investors: These markets could offer investment opportunities if you're willing to take on the risk. Buying low and holding for the long term could pay off if these areas experience an economic turnaround. But thorough due diligence is crucial.

Final Thoughts

While these forecasts give us a glimpse into what might happen over the next year, the real estate market is complex and can change quickly. Various factors that go into prices of real estate change more frequently than any one can predict. Staying informed, doing your own research, and consulting with real estate professionals can help you to navigate these trends and make smart decisions!

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Housing Market Boom or Slump: NAR’s Report Shows Slight Drop in Sales

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Is the housing market about to crash or take off? That's the million-dollar question everyone's asking. The latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) offers some clues, but the picture is, well, complicated. While existing-home sales decreased by 0.7% year-over-year, there's more to the story than just that one number. So, is it a housing market slump or boom in disguise? Let's dive into the details.

Housing Market Boom or Slump: NAR's Report Shows Slight Drop in Sales

Here's what the NAR report for May had to say:

  • Sales: Existing-home sales decreased by 0.7% compared to May of last year. However, month-over-month, sales actually ticked up by 0.8%, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million.
  • Inventory: The number of homes for sale saw a significant increase, jumping 6.2% from April and a whopping 20.3% year-over-year, landing at 1.54 million units. This translates to a 4.6-month supply.
  • Prices: The median existing-home price rose by 1.3% compared to last year, hitting $422,800. That's a record high for the month of May and marks the 23rd consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Here's a Quick Summary:

Metric Change (Month-over-Month) Change (Year-over-Year)
Existing-Home Sales +0.8% -0.7%
Unsold Inventory +6.2% +20.3%
Median Sales Price +1.3%

Decoding the Numbers: What Does It All Mean?

At first glance, the 0.7% sales drop might sound alarming. But before you panic, remember that real estate is hyper-local. And more than that, context is everything.

First, the month-over-month increase suggests that demand might be picking up slightly. I have personally observed that while this is happening, people are very cautious owing to high interest rates. The increase in inventory is also a positive sign, offering buyers more choices and potentially easing the pressure on prices.

However, the elephant in the room is mortgage rates. As NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed out, “The relatively subdued sales are largely due to persistently high mortgage rates.” He further notes that lower rates are pivotal to unlocking greater participation in the housing market.

The Regional Breakdown: Where Are the Hot Spots (and Not-So-Hot Spots)?

The NAR report also breaks down the data by region, revealing significant differences across the country:

  • Northeast: Both sales and prices are up, showing strength in this region.
  • Midwest: Similar to the Northeast, the Midwest is seeing positive growth in both categories.
  • South: Sales are down slightly year-over-year, but prices are also down a bit in this region. This could indicate a more balanced market.
  • West: The West is experiencing declines in sales, but prices are still inching upward. This could mean affordability is a major concern in this region.

Here's a quick summary of the regional performance:

Region Sales (Month-over-Month) Sales (Year-over-Year) Median Price (Year-over-Year)
Northeast +4.2% +4.2% +7.1%
Midwest +2.1% +1.0% +3.4%
South +1.7% -0.5% -0.7%
West -5.4% -6.7% +0.5%

It's important to note these regional differences when analyzing the overall market picture. What's happening in California is vastly different from what's happening in Ohio, and national averages can sometimes be misleading.

Mortgage Rates: The Key to Unlocking the Market

As mentioned earlier, mortgage rates are a crucial factor in the housing market. The NAR report indicates that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 6.81% as of June 18th. While slightly down from the previous week and year, these rates are still high enough to deter many potential buyers.

Why are rates so important? Well, consider this simple example:

Imagine you're looking at a $400,000 home. At a 3% interest rate, your monthly mortgage payment (excluding property taxes and insurance) would be around $1,686. At a 7% interest rate, that payment jumps to about $2,661. That's a difference of nearly $1,000 per month!

It's no wonder that high mortgage rates are keeping some buyers on the sidelines.

First-Time Homebuyers, Investors, and Cash Sales

The NAR report also provides insights into who's buying homes:

  • First-time homebuyers: They made up 30% of sales, down from 34% in April and 31% in May 2024. This suggests that affordability challenges are particularly affecting first-time buyers. I have witnessed many potential first-time home buyers take a temporary step back in the last few months.
  • Individual investors/second-home buyers: This group accounted for 17% of transactions, up from 15% in April and 16% in May 2024. It would seem some investors are sniffing for opportunities in the current market.
  • Cash sales: Cash purchases represented 27% of transactions, up from 25% in April but down from 28% in May 2024. Cash buyers are less sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations, which gives them an advantage in a high-rate environment.

Distressed Sales: Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) remained low, accounting for only 3% of total sales.

My Personal Take: Navigating an Uncertain Market- A Boom? A Bust? Neither perhaps!

So, what's my take on all of this? Honestly, I don't think we're heading for a major crash or a massive boom. Instead, I believe we're in a period of market correction and recalibration.

The increase in inventory is a good sign, helping to bring some balance back to the market. However, until mortgage rates come down significantly, I expect sales to remain somewhat subdued.

For buyers, this means you might have more leverage and negotiating power than you did a year or two ago. Take your time, shop around, and don't feel pressured to overpay.

For sellers, it means you need to be realistic about pricing. Gone are the days of simply listing your home and watching the offers pour in. Today's buyers are more discerning and price-sensitive.

Key Takeaways: Tips for Buyers and Sellers

Here's some quick advice for both buyers and sellers navigating the current market:

For Buyers:

  • Get pre-approved: Know your budget and what you can realistically afford.
  • Shop around for mortgage rates: Don't just go with the first lender you find
  • Be patient: The right home will come along.
  • Don't be afraid to negotiate: You may have more leverage than you think.

For Sellers:

  • Price your home competitively: Research comparable sales in your area.
  • Make necessary repairs and improvements: Ensure your home is in top condition.
  • Be prepared to negotiate: Be open to offers and willing to compromise.
  • Work with an experienced real estate agent: A good agent can guide you through the process and help you achieve your goals.

The Bottom Line: Patience and Perspective

The housing market is a complex and ever-changing beast. The latest NAR report provides valuable data, but it's important to interpret that data with caution and consider the broader economic context.

Whether you're a buyer, a seller, or simply someone interested in the market, remember to stay informed, do your research, and consult with professionals. And most importantly, have patience!

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Los Angeles Housing Market Cools as Buyers Pullback in 2025

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Is now the right time to buy or sell in Los Angeles? As of May 2025, the Los Angeles housing market is showing signs of cooling off, with sales and prices experiencing slight pullbacks. However, it's not all doom and gloom, and there are opportunities for both buyers and sellers if you understand the current dynamics. While the market is down 7.9% YOY, the median listing price of homes in Los Angeles, CA was $975K in May 2025, trending up 2.6% year-over-year.

I've been watching the Southern California housing scene for years, and what I'm seeing now is a shift from the frenzy of the past few years to something a bit more… normal. Let’s dig into the details so you can make the best decision for yourself.

Los Angeles Housing Market Cools as Buyers Pullback

The Big Picture: California's Sputtering Market

First, let's zoom out and look at the broader California context. According to the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), the state's housing market is facing some headwinds. In May 2025, existing single-family home sales totaled 254,190 on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That's down 5.1% from April and 4% from May 2024. The statewide median home price also dipped to $900,170, a 1.1% decrease from April and a 0.9% decrease from May 2024.

Several factors are contributing to this slowdown:

  • Lingering Economic Uncertainty: People are still cautious about the economy.
  • Elevated Mortgage Interest Rates: Although interest rates have averaged around 6.82% in May 2025 down from 7.06% in May 2024, concerns about the economy still linger and prevent people from considering taking loans.
  • Insurance Availability/Affordability: This is a big one, especially in areas prone to wildfires. The high cost (or lack) of home insurance can scare buyers away.

Los Angeles: A Closer Look

Now, let's focus on what’s happening right here in Los Angeles County and the broader metro area. The data reveals a mixed bag:

  • Median Home Price: In May 2025, the median price of an existing single-family home in Los Angeles County was $835,480. This is a decrease of 1.7% from $850,270 in April 2025, but an increase of 2.9% compared to $811,610 in May 2024.
  • Los Angeles Metro Area The median price of an existing single-family home was $855,000 This is a increase of 0.6% from $850,000 in April 2025, and increase of 1.8% compared to $840,000 in May 2024.
  • Sales: Home sales in Los Angeles County decreased by 7.9% compared to May 2024.
  • Unsold Inventory Index (UII): The UII for Los Angeles County was 3.9 months in May 2025, up from 2.7 months in May 2024. This means it would take longer to sell all the homes currently on the market.
  • Days on Market: The median time it took to sell a home in Los Angeles County was 23 days in May 2025, up from 18.5 days in May 2024.

So, what does all this mean? Quite simply, it's taking longer to sell homes, and while prices are still up year-over-year, they've softened a bit compared to the previous month. LA appears to be aligning to the broader direction of the wider Californian market.

Why the Slowdown? My Take

I think several factors are at play here in Los Angeles:

  1. Affordability Crisis: Let's face it, Los Angeles is expensive. Even with slightly lower prices, many people are priced out of the market. The large home prices are not the only factor impacting affordability; insurance rates and property taxes greatly restrict opportunity to get into the market.
  2. The “Wait and See” Approach: Some potential buyers are waiting to see if prices will drop further.
  3. More Inventory: As the data shows, there are more homes on the market compared to last year. This gives buyers more options and reduces the sense of urgency.
  4. Mortgage Rates: Even with rates dipping slightly from the previous year, they are still historically higher than what we have been used to over the past decade.
  5. Concerns About Economic Outlook: Broader uncertainty around economic outlook can prevent people considering loans.

Opportunities for Buyers

If you're a buyer, this might be a good time to get into the game. Here's why:

  • Less Competition: Bidding wars are less common than they were a year or two ago.
  • More Negotiating Power: You can often negotiate a better price or ask for concessions (like repairs or closing cost assistance). President of C.A.R., Heather Ozur, feels “With home prices leveling off and more homes coming onto the market, it’s a great time for well-qualified buyers to enter the market“.
  • More Choices: With increased inventory, you have a wider selection of homes to choose from.

However, don't expect fire-sale prices. Los Angeles is still a desirable place to live, and prices aren't likely to plummet dramatically.

Advice for Sellers

If you're selling, you need to be realistic about the market. Here are my suggestions:

  • Price it Right: Don't overprice your home. Look at what comparable homes have actually sold for recently, not just what they're listed for.
  • Make it Appealing: Invest in some basic repairs and improvements to make your home stand out. Cleaning, decluttering, and fresh paint can go a long way.
  • Be Patient: It might take longer to sell your home than it would have a year ago.

The Future: Crystal Ball Gazing

What's next for the Los Angeles housing market? That's the million-dollar question!

C.A.R.'s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine feels “Although the market has slowed in recent months, there’s potential for a rebound if economic concerns subside, buyers may take advantage of improved conditions, including deeper price reductions and increased housing inventory.”

Here's what I'm watching:

  • Interest Rates: Mortgage rates will continue to play a big role. If they drop significantly, we could see a surge in buyer demand.
  • The Economy: A strong economy generally supports a healthy housing market.
  • Inventory: If inventory continues to rise, prices could soften further.

Key Takeaways

Here's a summary of where the market is:

  • The Los Angeles housing market is showing signs of cooling.
  • Sales are down year-over-year.
  • Prices are up year-over-year, but softening.
  • Inventory is increasing.
  • It's taking longer to sell homes.

No matter what the data says, every real estate transaction is personal. It has unique goals, circumstances and limitations.

I think the Los Angeles Housing market is a complex and dynamic story. Whether you're buying or selling (or just curious), do your research. Talk to local real estate agents. And most importantly, make informed decisions that are right for your individual situation.

Today’s Mortgage Rates – June 24, 2025: Rates Dip With 30-Year FRM Down to 6.85%

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As of today, June 24, 2025, the national average for 30-year fixed mortgage rates has dropped to 6.85%, which is a slight decrease from the previous week, making mortgages a bit more affordable. Notably, the 15-year fixed mortgage rate has also decreased to 5.88%. If you are considering buying a home or refinancing, these current rates present a potentially advantageous opportunity.

Today's Mortgage Rates – June 24, 2025: Rates Dip With 30-Year FRM Down to 6.85%

Key Takeaways:

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 6.85% (dropped from 6.86%)
  • 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate: 5.88% (dropped from 5.91%)
  • Average 30-Year Refinance Rate: 7.13% (up from 7.11%)
  • Expectations: Future rates may stabilize around 6.4% to 6.6% through 2025.
  • Impact on Affordability: Lower rates can contribute to a decrease in monthly payments for new loans.

Current Mortgage Rates Overview

According to data from Zillow, today’s mortgage rates have shown marginal fluctuations. Here's a table summarizing the mortgage rates by loan type as of June 24, 2025:

Loan Type Current Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.85% -0.06% 7.32% -0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.88% -0.08% 6.19% -0.08%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.51% -0.07% 7.01% +0.06%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.85% -0.08% 6.04% -0.03%
5-Year ARM 7.10% -0.10% 7.78% -0.02%
30-Year FHA Loan 7.75% +0.43% 8.79% +0.43%

The 30-year fixed rate mortgage remains a favorite for many homebuyers due to its stability and predictability over three decades. Given the lower current rates, buyers might want to consider locking in a rate while they can.

Today's Refinance Rates

For those looking to refinance, the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate is currently at 7.13%, which has shown a slight uptick from 7.11% last week. This is a critical factor for homeowners considering refinancing to reduce their monthly payments or consolidate debt. Below is a table of current refinance rates:

Refinance Loan Type Current Rate 1-Week Change APR 1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed Rate 7.13% +0.02% 7.32% -0.06%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.96% -0.01% 6.19% -0.08%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.51% -0.07% 7.01% +0.06%
5-Year ARM 7.12% +0.46% 7.78% -0.02%

With these refinance rates, homeowners are encouraged to evaluate their current mortgage plan.

Monthly Payment Calculations Based on Today's Rates

Calculating monthly payments based on current mortgage rates can help potential buyers and current homeowners understand their financial commitments. Below are mortgage payment estimates for various loan amounts under current rates.

Monthly Payment on $150,000 Mortgage

For a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.85%, the estimated monthly payment would be approximately $996 for the principal and interest. This payment excludes property taxes and insurance, which can vary by location.

Monthly Payment on $200,000 Mortgage

If you take a $200,000 loan at the same rate of 6.85%, your monthly payment would be around $1,328. Again, this figure will vary slightly with taxes and insurance, but it serves as a solid baseline for budgeting.

Monthly Payment on $300,000 Mortgage

For buyers looking to purchase a home around $300,000, with the same 30-year fixed rate, the estimated monthly payment would be about $1,992. This highlights how even a slight increase in the mortgage amount can significantly impact monthly payments.

Monthly Payment on $400,000 Mortgage

Using the same mortgage rate of 6.85%, a $400,000 mortgage would result in a payment just over $2,657 monthly. This underscores the importance of knowing how rates and amounts affect overall budgeting.

Monthly Payment on $500,000 Mortgage

Lastly, a $500,000 mortgage under the same 30-year fixed rates would lead to a monthly payment of approximately $3,321. As the mortgage amount increases, so does the payment, which is crucial for buyers to assess before committing to a loan.

Future Mortgage Rate Predictions and Trends

From the latest forecasts, experts suggest that mortgage rates could stabilize around 6.4% to 6.6% through the remainder of 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association anticipates rates will remain relatively unchanged until late summer, with economic conditions affecting the mortgage landscape as we progress into 2026. If inflation continues to be a concern, it may hinder a more significant decrease in rates.

The Fannie Mae Forecast outlines projections for mortgage rates dropping slightly to 6.5% by the end of 2025 and further down to 6.1% in 2026. This trend could lead to more favorable purchasing conditions for homebuyers looking for affordability.

Furthermore, projections from the Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that depending on economic shifts, there’s potential for mortgage rates to decrease in alignment with Treasury yields. If rates fall, like the change noted from 7% to 6.25%, that difference could lead to substantial savings in monthly payments.

For homebuyers and homeowners looking to make informed decisions based on today's mortgage rates, staying updated on these figures can be crucial. Understanding how mortgage rates affect monthly payments and future expectations allows for better financial planning and decision-making.

Invest Smarter in a High-Rate Environment

With mortgage rates remaining elevated this year, it's more important than ever to focus on cash-flowing investment properties in strong rental markets.

Norada helps investors like you identify turnkey real estate deals that deliver predictable returns—even when borrowing costs are high.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Connect with a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

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Mortgage Refinance Rates Today Drop by 6 Bps – June 23, 2025

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If you've been watching mortgage rates closely, you'll be glad to hear that mortgage refinance rates today, June 23, 2025, have decreased by 6 basis points. The average 30-year fixed refinance rate has dropped to 7.11%, according to Zillow, offering a potential opportunity for homeowners to save money. But before you jump in, let's delve deeper into what this means for you and whether refinancing is the right move.

Refinance Rates Dip! Mortgage Refinance Rates Today (June 23, 2025) Fall 6 Bps

Understanding the Refinance Rate Dip

A drop of 6 basis points might seem small, but it can make a difference over the life of a loan. To put it in perspective, consider this:

  • The Numbers: The national average for a 30-year fixed refinance loan now sits at 7.11%, a decrease from 7.17% recorded previously.
  • The Trend: Compared to last week, the 30-year fixed refinance rate is down 5 basis points from an average of 7.16%.
  • Other Loan Types: The 15-year fixed refinance rate has also decreased by 6 basis points, now averaging 5.96%. Meanwhile, the 5-year ARM (Adjustable-Rate Mortgage) refinance rate remains steady at 6.46%.

Why Refinance?

Refinancing your mortgage involves taking out a new loan to replace your existing one. People usually do this for a few key reasons:

  • Lower Interest Rate: The most common reason. Securing a lower rate can significantly reduce your monthly payments and the total amount you pay over the life of the loan.
  • Shorten Loan Term: Switching from a 30-year to a 15-year mortgage can save you a ton of money on interest, even if the interest rate is slightly higher. You'll build equity faster, too!
  • Change Loan Type: Converting from an ARM to a fixed-rate mortgage provides stability and predictability in your monthly payments.
  • Consolidate Debt: You can roll other debts, like credit card balances, into your mortgage, potentially securing a lower interest rate and simplifying your finances.
  • Cash-Out Refinance: Access equity in your home for renovations, education, or other major expenses.

Current Refinance Rate Overview

Here's a quick look at the current refinance rates for different loan types, as of June 23, 2025:

Conforming Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate 6.88% down 0.04% 7.31% down 0.06%
20-Year Fixed Rate 6.37% down 0.21% 6.80% down 0.16%
15-Year Fixed Rate 5.91% down 0.05% 6.19% down 0.07%
10-Year Fixed Rate 5.85% down 0.08% 6.04% down 0.03%
7-year ARM 7.50% up 0.07% 7.73% down 0.09%
5-year ARM 7.08% down 0.12% 7.72% down 0.07%
3-year ARM — 0.00% — 0.00%

Government Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA 7.75% up 0.95% 8.78% up 0.95%
30-Year Fixed Rate VA 6.62% up 0.01% 6.63% down 0.20%
15-Year Fixed Rate FHA 6.37% up 0.44% 7.34% up 0.45%
15-Year Fixed Rate VA 5.97% down 0.07% 6.33% down 0.06%

Jumbo Loans

PROGRAM RATE 1W CHANGE APR 1W CHANGE
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 7.42% up 0.05% 7.72% up 0.03%
15-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo 6.88% up 0.11% 6.98% up 0.02%
7-year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%
5-year ARM Jumbo 9.00% up 0.01% 8.82% up 0.05%
3-year ARM Jumbo — 0.00% — 0.00%

Important Considerations Before Refinancing

Even with these slightly lower rates, it's wise to proceed with caution, think about whether refinancing makes sense for you:

  • Your Credit Score: A good to excellent credit score is crucial for securing the best refinance rates.
  • Closing Costs: Refinancing comes with closing costs, which can include appraisal fees, title insurance, and origination fees, consider this cost as well.
  • Break-Even Point: Calculate how long it will take to recoup the closing costs through your monthly savings. If you plan to move soon, refinancing might not be worth it.
  • Long-Term Financial Goals: Consider how refinancing aligns with your overall financial strategy.
  • Loan type : Choose the right loan option. A fixed-rate mortgage offers stability whereas ARM, which offers lower initial rates, but these rates can change over time.

How to Get the Best Refinance Rate

  • Shop Around: Don't settle for the first rate you're offered. Get quotes from multiple lenders to compare rates and fees.
  • Improve Your Credit Score: Pay down debts and correct any errors on your credit report.
  • Negotiate: Don't be afraid to negotiate with lenders, especially if you have a strong credit history and a good relationship with them.
  • Consider a Shorter Term: If you can afford the higher monthly payments, a 15-year mortgage can save you a lot of money on interest.

The Role of the Economy

Mortgage rates are intricately linked to the overall economic climate, influenced by factors like:

  • Inflation: High inflation often leads to higher interest rates as the Federal Reserve tries to cool down the economy.
  • Economic Growth: A strong economy can also push rates higher as demand for borrowing increases.
  • Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed's decisions on interest rates have a direct impact on mortgage rates.
  • Global Events: Unexpected global events can create economic uncertainty, leading to fluctuations in mortgage rates.

My Thoughts and Expertise

As someone who's followed the mortgage market for years, I can tell you that timing is everything. While a 6-basis-point drop is encouraging, it's essential to look at the bigger picture. Consider where you are in your current mortgage term and how long you plan to stay in your home. Also, pay close attention to economic indicators and forecasts, as they can provide clues about where rates are headed.

Final Thoughts

The decrease in mortgage refinance rates today offers a potential opportunity for homeowners to save money. Evaluate your personal finances, compare offers from multiple lenders, and factor in the long-term implications before making a final call. Don't rush into it. Consult with a financial advisor to ensure refinancing is a smart financial move is always a good idea.

Maximize Your Mortgage Decisions in 2025

Thinking about whether to refinance now? Timing is critical, and having the right strategy can save you thousands over the life of your loan.

Norada's team can guide you through current market dynamics and help you position your investments wisely—whether you're looking to reduce rates, pull out equity, or expand your portfolio.

HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED!

Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

Get Started Now

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