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What Pending Home Sales Are Signaling About the Housing Market in 2026

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So, you're wondering what all the buzz about “pending home sales” really means for the housing market down the road, specifically in 2026? Well, the latest data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) gives us some pretty clear clues. Based on their December 2025 report, the significant drop in pending home sales points towards a housing market in 2026 that will likely see continued moderation, potentially with tighter inventory but also with cautious optimism as sales might start to stabilize.

What Pending Home Sales Are Signaling About the Housing Market in 2026

Looking at pending home sales is like looking at the first blush of dawn. It doesn't tell us the whole story of the day, but it definitely hints at what's to come. When fewer people are signing purchase agreements, it’s a signal that something is shifting. It’s not a doomsday prediction, but it’s a heads-up that we might not be in for the same kind of frenzy we’ve seen in recent years.

The December Dip: A Deeper Dive

Let's break down what the December 2025 NAR report actually told us, because it's packed with information.

  • Nationally, things cooled off. Pending home sales saw a 9.3% decrease from the month before and a 3.0% decrease compared to the same time last year. This isn't just a little wobble; it's a noticeable dip.
  • No region was left untouched. Every single one of the four major regions in the U.S. experienced a month-over-month decrease in pending sales. This widespread slowdown suggests it's not just a local blip but a broader trend.

Regional Breakdown: A Mixed Bag

While the overall trend was down, looking at the regions gives us a more nuanced picture.

  • Northeast and Midwest: These areas saw the biggest drops, with month-over-month decreases of 11.0% and 14.9% respectively. Year-over-year, they also declined significantly. This could indicate factors like affordability challenges or localized economic slowdowns are hitting these markets harder.
  • West: Also experiencing a substantial month-over-month drop of 13.3%, the West saw a year-over-year decrease of 5.1%. This region has often been at the forefront of market shifts, so its significant slowdown is worth noting.
  • The South: A Glimmer of Hope? Interestingly, the South was the only region to see a year-over-year increase in pending home sales, albeit a modest 2.0%. Month-over-month, it did see a 4.0% decrease, but the fact that it's still stronger year-over-year compared to other regions suggests some resilience. This is something I’ll be keeping a close eye on, as migration patterns and evolving economic conditions can make certain areas more attractive than others.

Why the Drop? It's Not Just the Weather!

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed out something crucial: while winter weather and holidays can affect December numbers, the trend is worth watching. He highlighted that even after accounting for these seasonal quirks, the drop in contract signings could be signaling a real shift.

From my perspective, several factors are likely at play:

  • Affordability Squeeze: Even with some interest rate fluctuations, home prices in many areas have been on a strong upward trajectory. For many potential buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, affordability remains a major hurdle. When homes are priced out of reach, fewer people can get to the point of signing a contract.
  • Inventory Crunch: This is a big one. Yun mentioned that closing activity increased, but new listings did not keep pace, leading to a decrease in inventory. In December, there were only 1.18 million homes on the market, matching the lowest inventory level of 2025. When buyers see fewer options, they tend to hesitate. It’s human nature; we want to feel like we have choices before making such a massive decision. This lack of choice can dampen enthusiasm and lead to fewer pending sales.
  • Buyer Hesitation: With economic uncertainties and what feels like constant news about potential shifts, some buyers might be taking a more cautious approach. They might be waiting for more stability or a better selection of homes before committing.

What About 2026? My Take

Looking ahead to 2026, based on this pending home sales data and my own experience, here's what I anticipate:

  • Moderation Over Meltdown: The significant drop in pending sales doesn't necessarily mean the market is about to crash. Instead, it likely signals a move towards a more balanced market. This means fewer bidding wars, potentially slightly longer days on market, and a return to more normal negotiation processes.
  • Inventory Remains Key: The inventory issue is truly the elephant in the room. If new construction doesn't pick up or more existing homeowners don't decide to sell, the low inventory will continue to be a major constraint. This could mean that even with fewer pending sales each month, prices might not see dramatic drops; they might just stabilize or see slower appreciation.
  • Interest Rate Influence: While not directly in the pending sales report, interest rates are always a massive factor. If rates continue to hold steady or even dip slightly in 2026, it could provide a much-needed boost to buyer demand, even with limited inventory. Conversely, any significant uptick could further dampen activity.
  • Regional Divergence: I expect to see continued divergence between different regions. The South’s relative strength might continue, while some of the more expensive markets on the coasts could face greater affordability challenges. Areas with strong job growth and relatively lower price points will likely remain attractive.

Whispers from the Confidence Index

The NAR REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI) for December 2025 also offers some additional context.

  • Time on Market is Growing: The median time properties were on the market increased to 39 days, up from 36 days the previous month and 35 days in December 2024. This aligns with the idea of a cooling market where homes might not be selling as instantly.
  • First-Time Buyer Struggles Continue: First-time homebuyers made up 29% of sales, down from the previous month and year. This reinforces the affordability challenge they face.
  • Investor and Cash Buyer Presence: A notable 28% of transactions were cash sales, slightly up from the month before. Individual investors and second-home buyers also accounted for 18% of transactions, unchanged from last month but up from 16% a year ago. This suggests that cash is still king and investors are actively participating, which can put pressure on prices and make it harder for traditional buyers.
  • A Ray of Hope for Traffic: Despite the dip in pending sales, a good chunk of NAR members (31%) expect an increase in buyer traffic over the next three months, and 28% expect an increase in seller traffic. This could indicate that while contract signings were down in December, real estate professionals are sensing a renewed interest from both buyers and sellers heading into the new year. This is a crucial metric to watch; if buyer and seller traffic picks up, it can lead to more transactions down the line.

What Does This Mean for Me?

If you're thinking about buying or selling in 2026:

  • Buyers: Stay patient. The market might offer more negotiating power than in the recent past. Focus on what you can afford and be prepared for continued competition if inventory remains tight.
  • Sellers: It’s still a seller's market in many places, but you may need to be more strategic. Pricing your home correctly from the start and ensuring it shows well will be more important than ever.

Ultimately, the drop in pending home sales is a signal to pay attention. It’s not a sign of impending doom, but rather a nudge towards a more balanced and predictable housing market in 2026. I'm optimistic that with clear data and careful observation, we can navigate whatever comes our way.

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Pending Home Sales: Trends and Forecast 2026

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Here's the straight talk: pending home sales took a noticeable dip in December, both from the month before and the year prior. This signals that the housing market, while showing some flashes of life, still has a bumpy road ahead.

As someone who's been navigating the real estate waters for a while, I always pay close attention to the pending home sales figures. They’re like a rearview mirror for the housing market – they show us what agreements were made, what contracts were signed, and where things were headed before a sale actually closes. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) recently released their Pending Home Sales Report for December 2025, and the numbers have definitely given us something to ponder.

Let’s break down what these figures really mean, beyond just percentages.

Pending Home Sales: What the Latest Numbers Tell Us About the Housing Market

The Big Picture: December's Dip

The NAR report tells us that pending home sales fell by 9.3% from November to December. That might sound like a lot, and it is a significant drop. More importantly, when we look at the year-over-year picture, pending sales were down 3.0%. This means fewer deals were being put under contract in December compared to the previous year.

It’s my experience that these month-to-month swings can sometimes be a bit noisy. Factors like holidays, people taking vacations, and even just bad weather can throw a wrench in home showings and contract signings. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed this out, noting that interpreting winter data, especially in December, can be tricky. We need to watch what happens in the coming months to see if this was just a blip or the beginning of a bigger trend.

Regional Breakdown: A Mixed Bag

When I look at the regional data, it really highlights the diverse nature of our housing market. Not every part of the country is experiencing the same thing.

  • Northeast: Saw a 11.0% decrease month-over-month and a 3.6% decrease year-over-year.
  • Midwest: Experienced the sharpest decline, with a 14.9% drop month-over-month and a 9.8% decrease year-over-year.
  • South: Showed resilience with a smaller month-over-month decline of 4.0%, but managed a 2.0% increase year-over-year. This is a bright spot, and I often see the South leading the way in housing trends.
  • West: Faced a significant 13.3% decrease month-over-month and a 5.1% decrease year-over-year.

It’s fascinating to see the South bucking the trend with a year-over-year gain. This often points to stronger job growth, more affordable housing options, or simply a migration of people seeking a better quality of life. On the other hand, the larger declines in the Northeast, Midwest, and West suggest these areas might be more sensitive to economic shifts or perhaps dealing with higher housing costs.

Why the Decline? Inventory is Key

One of the most crucial takeaways from the NAR report, in my opinion, is the connection between low inventory and declining pending sales. The report mentions that while closed sales increased in December, new listings didn’t keep up. This resulted in inventory levels shrinking, even matching the lowest point of 2025.

I can't stress enough how important inventory is to buyer confidence. When potential buyers see a limited number of homes on the market, they can become hesitant. They want options, they want to feel like they have a choice, and they don't want to feel rushed into making one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. When inventory is scarce, it can dampen consumer enthusiasm, even if interest rates are favorable. It's a catch-22: low inventory can slow sales, which can lead to even lower inventory moving forward.

What Else the REALTORS® Confidence Index Tells Us

Beyond the pending sales numbers, the REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI) provides a great pulse check from those on the front lines. Here are a few key insights from their December survey:

  • Time on Market: The median time homes spent on the market was 39 days, up from 36 days the previous month and 35 days in December 2024. This slight increase suggests homes are taking a bit longer to sell, which is often a characteristic of a cooling market.
  • First-Time Homebuyers: The percentage of sales to first-time homebuyers dipped slightly to 29%, down from 30% last month and 31% a year ago. This is something I watch closely because first-time buyers are critical to fueling the housing market. A decline here can signal affordability issues or difficulty in saving for a down payment.
  • Cash Sales & Investors: Cash sales saw a slight increase to 28%, and individual investors or second-home buyers made up 18% of transactions. This indicates that while some buyers are facing challenges, those with cash or investment backing are still actively participating.
  • Distressed Sales: Foreclosures and short sales remained very low at 2%, which is a positive sign that we're not seeing a wave of distressed properties hitting the market.
  • Future Outlook: Importantly, 31% of NAR members expect an increase in buyer traffic over the next three months, up from 22% last month. Similarly, 28% expect an increase in seller traffic, up from 18% last month. This optimism from REALTORS® is a crucial indicator. It suggests that despite the December dip, professionals in the field are sensing a potential uptick in activity in the near future.

Looking Ahead – The Forecast

The December pending home sales report paints a picture of a market that's still finding its footing. The declines are not ideal, but they come with important context. The persistent issue of low inventory is a major driver of buyer hesitation, and the regional variations show that real estate is anything but monolithic.

However, the positive sentiment from REALTORS® about future buyer and seller traffic is a glimmer of hope. We need to see more homes come onto the market to truly reignite buyer enthusiasm. It’s a complex dance between interest rates, affordability, economic stability, and the sheer availability of homes for sale. I’ll be keeping a close eye on these numbers in the coming months to see if the December slowdown was a temporary hiccup or the start of a more prolonged adjustment.

Pending Home Sales Trends for the Last 12-Months

The table shows data from regarding pending home sales in four regions of the United States – Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. The data reveals interesting trends in pending home sales across the regions. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) publishes monthly data on pending home sales, which is seasonally adjusted and presented in the form of a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in thousands.

Here is the tabular data of pending home sales from November 2024 to November 2025. The units displayed are in thousands and are the seasonally adjusted annual rate.

Pending Home Sales Index Explained

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing. Pending contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings. However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed sales is not identical for all home sales.

Variations in the length of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the index is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing service data each month.

In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. An index of 100 equals the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

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Fed Interest Rate Predictions for the Next 3 Years: 2026-2028

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Let's talk about what's on a lot of our minds: where are those Federal Reserve interest rates headed in the next few years? The short answer is that after some cuts this year, they're expected to inch down slowly but surely, settling somewhere around 3% by the time 2028 rolls around. This gradual move is all about getting inflation under control while keeping folks employed.

It feels like just yesterday the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates to tame that beastly inflation. Now, things are shifting. As of January 2026, the federal funds rate is sitting between 3.50% and 3.75%, and the Fed has already made a few cuts in late 2025. This tells me they're feeling more confident about the economy and are willing to loosen the reins a bit. But don't expect a dramatic plunge – it's going to be more of a slow, steady walk down the hill.

Fed Interest Rate Predictions for the Next 3 Years: 2026-2028

Official Projections for 2026-2028

The folks at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) actually put out their best guesses, and it's called the Summary of Economic Projections. It's pretty interesting to see what they're thinking. Based on what they projected in December 2025, here’s a rough idea of where they see rates going:

Year-End Projected Fed Funds Rate
2026 Around 3.4%
2027 Around 3.1%
2028 Around 3.1%

You can see from this table that they're not planning a big rush of rate cuts. It looks like maybe just one quarter-point cut in 2026, followed by two more in 2027. Then, by 2028, rates should be close to what they call the “neutral rate”—that's the sweet spot where the Fed’s actions aren't really pushing the economy in either direction, they're just letting it grow naturally.

What's Driving the Fed's Decisions? My Take.

It’s not magic; it's all about the economy. Several big pieces are influencing these rate predictions.

The Inflation Puzzle

The Fed's main job is to keep prices stable. They're projecting that inflation, which has been a headache, will slowly but surely get back down to their 2% target by 2027. They expect prices to cool from 2.5% at the end of 2026 down to 2.1% in 2027, and finally hit that 2% mark in 2028. They mentioned that some of the recent price bumps were due to things like tariffs, but those effects should fade. Personally, I’m watching closely to see if these inflation pressures truly disappear or if they’re more stubborn than anticipated.

The Job Market Story

The job market is another huge piece of the puzzle. Lately, we've seen unemployment tick up a bit, and jobs aren't being created as fast as they used to. The Fed is predicting the unemployment rate will peak around 4.5% in late 2025 and then slowly drop back down to about 4.2% by 2027 and stay there. I’ve noticed too that the Fed officials themselves seem more worried about job losses right now than about inflation getting out of hand. That shift in focus is important.

How's the Economy Doing?

On a brighter note, the Fed has actually bumped up its predictions for how much the economy will grow (that’s GDP). They now think it will grow by 2.3% in 2026, which is a nice jump from what they thought back in September. Then, growth will probably slow down a bit to around 2% in the following years. This tells me they believe the economy can keep chugging along without getting too hot and causing new inflation problems. It’s a delicate dance.

Not Everyone Agrees: Divergent Views and Uncertainty

Now, here’s where it gets really interesting to me. Not all the Fed officials are singing the same tune! In that December 2025 meeting, there were a few dissenting votes, which is pretty rare. It means there’s a good amount of disagreement about what the right interest rate should be.

The “dot plot” shows individual opinions, and for 2026, these range all the way from 2.1% to 3.9%. That’s a pretty wide spread! Some smart people, like those at Morningstar, think rates could drop even lower, maybe to 2.25%-2.50% by 2027, but only if the economy really slows down. On the flip side, J.P. Morgan thinks the Fed might just keep rates where they are through 2026 and maybe even raise them a little after that. This shows there's no crystal-clear path.

What This Means for Your Mortgage and Homeownership Dreams

Interest rates have a big impact on housing, like it or not! While the Fed controls the short-term rates, what we pay for mortgages, especially fixed-rate ones, is more tied to those 10-year Treasury yields. These yields are influenced by all sorts of bigger economic stuff and even what’s happening in the world.

If the Fed cuts rates as they're predicting, it will directly affect things like those adjustable-rate mortgages that are tied to short-term rates. For fixed-rate mortgages, the relationship is a bit more indirect. Morningstar is predicting that 30-year mortgage rates could dip to around 5.00% by 2028, down from a 6.70% average in 2024. That's a significant drop!

Generally, when interest rates go down, it means there’s more money flowing around in the financial system. This can make it cheaper for people buying and developing real estate, which can boost property values. But again, how much of a difference this makes depends on how quickly and how much those rates actually decrease.

The Risks That Could Throw a Wrench in the Plan

Of course, predictions are just predictions. The Fed has tough choices to make, and there are risks. Some worry that inflation might not come down as fast as they hope, while others are concerned about too many people losing their jobs.

Here's a table to help visualize the range of possibilities for the federal funds rate in 2026, based on the Fed’s own projections:

Fed Projection Range (2026)
Lower Bound: 2.9%
Upper Bound: 3.6%

This wide range shows the uncertainty even within the Fed. Plus, history teaches us that forecasts aren't always spot on. Based on past data, there's a pretty good chance that the actual rates in 2026 could be around 1.4 percentage points higher or lower than what the Fed is predicting. By 2028, that range could be even wider. And let’s not forget about the unexpected – a new economic crisis, a big government spending change, or something happening internationally could totally change the game.

So, What's This All Mean for You and Your Money?

The slow and steady approach to rate cuts through 2028 means we're likely heading towards a period of pretty stable monetary policy. For you and me, this could mean a little bit of relief on things like credit card interest or adjustable-rate mortgages. But don't expect a return to those super-low rates we saw a few years back. Borrowing money will likely remain more expensive.

For investors, the Fed’s careful approach signals confidence that they can steer the economy towards a “soft landing”—meaning they can lower inflation without causing a big recession. When rates eventually settle around 3% by 2027-2028, it means the Fed will have found that neutral ground again.

Ultimately, what the Fed does will depend on how inflation, jobs, and the economy as a whole play out. They’ll be watching closely and adjusting their plans as needed, just like they always do.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates, Jan 22: Long Term Loan Rates Hold Close to 6% Benchmark

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As of January 22, 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped slightly to 5.99%, according to Zillow data. While this offers a breath of fresh air for potential homebuyers, it's important to understand that mortgage rates have been doing a bit of a dance lately, mostly staying around the 6% level. We saw a brief dip to a three-year low earlier this month, but recent economic news and whispers about the Federal Reserve's next steps have caused some back and forth. The good news? Experts are leaning towards rates sticking pretty close to 6% for the remainder of 2026, offering a sense of stability for those planning their housing dreams.

Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 22: Long Term Loan Rates Hold Close to 6% Benchmark

Diving into the numbers, it appears the 30-year fixed rate has nudged up by a hair compared to last week, going from 5.94% to 5.99%. However, the 15-year fixed rate has done the opposite, ticking down a tiny bit from 5.39% to 5.38%. This might seem like small potatoes, but for many, every tenth of a percent can make a significant difference in their monthly payments.

Understanding Today's Home Loan Rates

Zillow provides us with a detailed look at what lenders are offering right now for different types of home purchases. It's always fascinating to see how varied these rates can be, even for seemingly similar loan products.

Loan Type Interest Rate APR
30-Year Fixed 5.99% 6.17%
20-Year Fixed 6.13% 6.36%
15-Year Fixed 5.38% 5.67%
10-Year Fixed 5.38% 5.78%
30-Year FHA 5.88% 6.50%
30-Year VA 5.75% 6.05%
30-Year Jumbo 6.00% 6.18%
7/6 ARM 6.00% 6.42%

(Note: APR, or Annual Percentage Rate, includes fees and other costs, so it's usually higher than the interest rate.)

As you can see here, the shorter the loan term, the lower the interest rate tends to be. This is a classic pattern, as lenders typically see less risk with loans that are paid off faster. It's also interesting to note the specific rates for FHA and VA loans, which are designed to help certain groups of buyers, like first-time homeowners and veterans. Jumbo loans, for those buying high-end properties, are also very close to the 30-year fixed.

Rate Comparison: A Quick Glance Back

Tracking changes from week to week is crucial for making smart financial decisions. Here's how we stacked up on January 22nd compared to about a week prior:

Loan Type Today's Rate (Jan 22, 2026) Last Week's Rate (~Jan 15, 2026) Change
30-Year Fixed 5.99% 5.94% Increased by 0.05%
15-Year Fixed 5.38% 5.39% Decreased by 0.01%

This table highlights that while the most popular 30-year fixed rate saw a slight bump, making things a tiny bit more expensive for new borrowers, the 15-year fixed rate actually became marginally cheaper. For someone looking to pay off their mortgage faster and save on total interest, this dip might be worth celebrating.

What's Driving Today's Mortgage Rates? A Deeper Dive.

Predicting mortgage rates is like trying to nail jelly to a wall – it can shift unexpectedly! But understanding the forces at play helps us make more informed guesses. Based on what I've seen over the years, a few key areas always come back to the forefront when we talk about rate movements.

1. Washington's Influence: Policy and Bond Markets

You can't talk about interest rates without talking about what the government is doing. Right now, there are a couple of big things to watch:

  • Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases: The administration has signaled intentions for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities. The idea is that when these government-sponsored enterprises buy more MBS, it increases demand for them, which, in turn, should push their prices up and their yields (which are closely tied to mortgage rates) down. The market already reacted to this news, but the real impact will depend on when and how much they actually buy. It’s like hearing about a sale – the anticipation is real, but the savings are only realized when you get to the register.
  • Tariffs and Deficits: New talk about tariffs and the ongoing high government deficit are also on my radar. Tariffs can make imported goods more expensive, potentially leading to higher prices overall (inflation), which usually pushes rates up. And when the government spends a lot more than it takes in (a deficit), it has to borrow more money. To entice investors to buy these government bonds, they have to offer higher interest rates, which can then ripple out to mortgage rates.

2. The Federal Reserve: The Big Decision Maker

The Federal Reserve (often called “the Fed”) is like the conductor of the economic orchestra, and their upcoming meeting at the end of January 2026 is a major event.

  • The Fed's Tone Matters: While a cut to interest rates right away isn't expected, what the Fed says is incredibly important. Their commentary and their “Dot Plot” – which shows where Fed officials think interest rates should be in the future – will tell us a lot about their outlook. If they sound “hawkish” (meaning they're hesitant to cut rates or will keep them higher for longer), mortgage rates could easily climb.
  • Balance Sheet Adjustments: The Fed recently stopped “quantitative tightening” (when they let bonds mature without reinvesting, shrinking their balance sheet) and has started buying short-term Treasury bills again. This is a move to add liquidity to markets, and any further announcements about expanding their balance sheet could put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates.

3. Economic Reports: The Data Doesn't Lie

The economy's health is the ultimate deciding factor for rates. Here's what I'm watching closely:

  • The Jobs Report: This is always a big one. If the upcoming jobs report shows the labor market is cooling down (meaning fewer jobs are being created, or unemployment is ticking up), it signals to the bond market that the Fed might need to cut rates sooner rather than later. Lower anticipated Fed rates generally mean lower mortgage rates.
  • Inflation Numbers: After the previous federal shutdown, we're expecting a “deluge” of economic data. If inflation reports come in hotter than expected, lenders might be forced to raise their rates to protect their profit margins in a rising-cost environment.

4. Global Ripples: Geopolitics and Safety

Sometimes, events far from home can have a direct impact on our wallets.

  • Safe-Haven Flows: If there's a sudden surge in global tensions or a financial crisis abroad, investors often flock to the perceived safety of U.S. Treasury bonds. This increased demand for U.S. debt drives bond prices up and yields down, which can lead to a welcome drop in mortgage rates.

Looking Ahead: What the Experts Are Saying

For now, the consensus from many housing market analysts I follow is that we'll likely see mortgage rates “bounce” around the 6% mark through the early part of 2026. A dramatic jump or fall doesn't seem to be on the immediate horizon. This suggests a period of relative calm, which can be beneficial for homebuyers and sellers alike, allowing for more predictable planning.

If you're in the market or thinking about refinancing, it's always a good practice to shop around with different lenders. Even small differences in rates and fees can add up significantly over the life of your loan. And remember, your personal credit score, down payment, and the type of loan you choose all play a huge role in the rate you will ultimately be offered. Good luck with your homeownership journey!

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Build Passive Income & Wealth with Turnkey Rentals in 2026

Mortgage rates remain high in 2026, but rental properties continue to deliver strong cash flow and appreciation. Savvy investors know that turnkey real estate is the path to passive income and long‑term wealth.

Norada Real Estate helps you secure turnkey rental properties designed for immediate cash flow and appreciation—so you can invest smartly regardless of interest rate trends.

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Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 22: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 7 Basis Points

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If you're thinking about refinancing your mortgage, now is the time to pay close attention. As of January 22, 2026, the national average for a 30-year fixed refinance rate has ticked up by 7 basis points compared to last week, now sitting at 6.59%. While this is a slight dip from yesterday's rate, the overall trend shows rates are beginning to climb again, making it crucial for borrowers to understand the current market and act strategically.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 22: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 7 Basis Points

A Peek at Today's Refinance Rates (January 22, 2026)

Let's break down where things stand today, based on data from Zillow. It’s always helpful to see the numbers laid out clearly:

Loan Type Current Rate Change (Basis Points) Previous Rate (Jan 21) Weekly Average (Jan 15)
30-Year Fixed Refinance 6.59% -6 bps (daily) 6.65% 6.52%
15-Year Fixed Refinance 5.72% +4 bps 5.68% N/A
5-Year ARM Refinance 7.28% +3 bps 7.25% N/A

What These Numbers Really Mean for You

You might be wondering, “Why should I care about a few basis points here or there?” Well, in the world of mortgages, even small changes can add up to significant amounts of money over the life of your loan.

  • The Daily Scoop vs. The Weekly Story: You'll notice the 30-year fixed refinance rate actually dropped by 6 basis points from yesterday. That's great news for anyone looking to refinance right now! However, when we zoom out and look at the weekly average, we see it’s actually up by 7 basis points. This tells me that while there might be short-term fluctuations, the underlying trend for this popular loan type is showing a gentle upward pressure. It's like seeing the tide go out a little, but knowing it’s going to come back in higher.
  • The 15-Year Alternative: The 15-year fixed refinance rate has also edged up slightly, by 4 basis points, settling at 5.72%. Historically, 15-year loans come with lower interest rates than 30-year loans because you're paying off your mortgage faster. If you have the financial flexibility, this can be a fantastic way to save a lot of money on interest over time, even with these minor increases.
  • Adjustable-Rate Mortgages (ARMs) are Watching: Even the 5-year ARM has seen a slight bump, up 3 basis points to 7.28%. ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but they come with the risk that your rate will adjust upwards later. Watching these rates tick up is a reminder that the window for potentially lower payments on ARMs might also be narrowing.

Deeper Dive: Why Are Rates Moving?

It's natural to ask why these rates are shifting. In my experience, mortgage rates aren't just pulled out of thin air. They’re influenced by a lot of different economic factors.

  • Economic Signals: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a huge role. When the economy is strong and inflation is a concern, the Fed might raise interest rates to cool things down. This, in turn, often pushes mortgage rates higher. Conversely, if the economy is sluggish, they might lower rates.
  • The Bond Market Buzz: Mortgage rates are also closely tied to the U.S. Treasury market, particularly the 10-year Treasury note. When investors feel confident about the economy, they might move their money into riskier assets like stocks, which can push bond prices down and yields (interest rates) up. On the flip side, during uncertain times, investors flock to the perceived safety of Treasury bonds, driving prices up and yields down.
  • Geopolitical Factors and Trade Winds: As mentioned in the provided data, things like geopolitical tensions and trade concerns can create market uncertainty. When there's news that shakes up global markets, it can cause a ripple effect that impacts interest rates, sometimes causing them to spike or dip unpredictably. It’s a constant tug-of-war between global events and our personal finances.

Refinance Demand: Are People Still Jumping In?

The data tells an interesting story about refinance activity. Despite the slight upward trend in weekly rates, there's been a significant surge in refinance applications.

  • A Big Jump: The week ending January 16th, 2026, saw refinance applications jump by a whopping 20% compared to the week before! That's a huge increase.
  • Year-Over-Year Boom: Not only that, but refinance activity is a staggering 183% higher than it was this time last year. This tells me that a lot of homeowners who took out mortgages when rates were higher (think above 7% in early 2025) are now seeing an opportunity to save money.
  • Refinance Takes the Lead: Refinance applications now make up around 61.9% of all mortgage activity. This dominance shows that homeowners are actively trying to take advantage of what they perceive as a favorable rate window, even with the recent upward pressure.

Expert Advice: Is It Time to Refinance for YOU?

As someone who follows the housing market closely, I always advise my readers to look beyond just the national averages.

  • The Savings Math: Experts often suggest that you should consider refinancing if the new rate is at least 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points lower than your current rate. Why? Because closing costs for a refinance can add up, and you want to make sure the long-term savings will outweigh those upfront expenses. Take the time to calculate your potential savings.
  • Shop Around, Smartly: Don't just accept the first offer you get! Lenders have different rates and fees. It’s crucial to compare current refinance rates from multiple lenders. You might be surprised to find an offer that’s even better than the national averages. This is where my own experience comes into play – I've seen people save thousands simply by diligently comparing options.
  • The 2026 Forecast: Looking ahead, many housing economists predict rates will likely stay in the lower 6% range for much of 2026. Some forecasts, like those from Morgan Stanley, even suggest a potential dip towards 5.5%–5.75% in mid-2026 before possibly climbing again. This implies that while today's rate might not be the absolute lowest we'll see this year, it's still a decent point to consider if you're looking to refinance.

The Bottom Line: Navigating Today's Mortgage Market

So, what’s the takeaway from today’s mortgage rate report? Mortgage rates are definitely in motion. While we saw a small dip in the 30-year refinance rate today, the bigger picture shows a weekly increase, indicating a trend towards slightly higher rates.

For homeowners and potential buyers, staying informed is your best strategy. If you're considering refinancing, today's slight daily dip might present a small window of opportunity, but the weekly trend suggests that acting sooner rather than later could be wise. Carefully weigh the potential savings against closing costs, and always, always shop around for the best deal.

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🏠 Property: E 110th Terrace
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 3 Bed • 2 Bath • 1002 sqft
💰 Price: $220,000 | Rent: $1,700
📊 Cap Rate: 6.9% | NOI: $1,273
📅 Year Built: 1957
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $220
🏙️ Neighborhood: A-

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30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Drops Sharply by 98 Basis Points

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Big news for anyone thinking about buying a home or refinancing! The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen by a whopping 98 basis points over the past year, hitting its lowest point in more than three years. This is a significant shift that could make a real difference in your monthly payments and overall borrowing costs.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Drops Sharply by 98 Basis Points

A welcome fall in mortgage rates

As a long-time observer of the housing market, I can tell you that seeing mortgage rates move this much, this quickly, is quite exciting. According to *Freddie Mac's *latest data, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage on January 15, 2026, now stands at a much more manageable 6.06%. That's a substantial drop from the 7.04% we saw in mid-January of last year.

This nearly full percentage point decrease is exactly what the market needed to kick things into higher gear. We're already seeing the positive effects, with people jumping into buying homes and those already on their mortgages looking to refinance. It feels like a real breath of fresh air for both aspiring homeowners and those looking to improve their current situation.

  • Significant Decline: The current rate of 6.06% is the lowest level seen in more than three years, a major shift from recent highs.
  • Recent High: Rates peaked at around 8.03% in October 2023, meaning the decrease from that peak is even larger than 100 basis points.
  • Market Impact: The recent decline has already led to a noticeable jump in weekly purchase applications and refinance activity, signaling an improving housing market ahead of the spring sales season. 

What's driving this change?

It's natural to wonder what's causing such a dramatic dip. Several economic factors are at play. Recent actions by the Federal Reserve and signs that the labor market is cooling down have helped ease concerns about rising inflation. While rates in the 6% range are still higher than the record lows we saw during the pandemic (which dipped as low as 2.65% in January 2021), they're actually closer to the historical average of around 7.70% that we've seen for decades.

A significant boost came recently with President Trump's announcement of a new $200 billion mortgage-backed securities buyback plan. This kind of government intervention can directly influence the cost of borrowing. Beyond that, the general health of the economy, including how fast it's growing and the performance of 10-year Treasury yields, all play a crucial role in setting mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rate Movement: A Closer Look

To really understand the impact, let's break down how rates have moved. The numbers speak for themselves.

Yearly Rate Comparison:

Mortgage Type Average Rate (Jan 15, 2026) Average Rate (Jan 15, 2025) Change (Basis Points)
30-Year Fixed 6.06% 7.04% -98 bps
15-Year Fixed 5.38% 6.27% -89 bps

This significant year-over-year drop is the headline news. It translates into potentially thousands of dollars saved over the life of a loan.

Recent Trends (Weekly & Monthly):

Mortgage Type Average Rate (Jan 15, 2026) Last Week's Average Last Month's Average
30-Year Fixed 6.06% 6.16% 6.14%
15-Year Fixed 5.38% 5.46% 5.45%

As you can see from the weekly data, rates dipped even further just last week, reinforcing the downward trend.

What this means for you

This drop isn't just a number; it has tangible benefits for everyone involved in the housing market.

  • For Buyers: This is a prime opportunity. Lower rates mean lower monthly mortgage payments. For the same monthly budget, you might be able to afford a more expensive home, or you can simply save money each month. The recent surge in purchase applications shows that many people are recognizing this advantage and are back in the market.
  • For Refinancers: If you currently have a mortgage with a rate significantly higher than 6.06%, now might be the ideal time to refinance. You could potentially lower your monthly payments, reduce the total interest you pay over time, or even shorten the term of your loan. The increase in refinance activity indicates that homeowners are seizing this chance.

My Take: Why this matters

I've seen firsthand how much even small changes in mortgage rates can impact people's financial lives. When rates were high, many potential buyers were priced out, and existing homeowners were hesitant to move. This recent drop is like a wave of relief. It injects much-needed activity and optimism into the housing sector. From my perspective, this isn't just a temporary blip. The combination of economic adjustments and proactive policy measures seems to be creating a more stable and favorable borrowing environment.

Looking Ahead: What's the forecast?

The crystal ball for interest rates is always a bit cloudy, but experts are offering some promising insights. Most forecasts suggest that rates will likely stay in the low 6% range throughout 2026. Some even predict they could dip below 6% by the end of the year. This provides a sense of stability for planning purposes, whether you're buying or refinancing.

However, it's crucial to remember that the national average is just that – an average. Rates can vary quite a bit from one lender to another. My best advice is always to shop around and compare offers from multiple lenders. You might be surprised at how much you can save by finding a lender who's willing to offer you a rate even lower than the national average.

The current housing market, with these lower mortgage rates, is presenting a fantastic opportunity. Don't miss out on the chance to make your homeownership dreams a reality or to optimize your current mortgage situation.

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Port Charlotte, FL
🏠 Property: Aldridge Ave
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 3 Bed • 2 Bath • 1548 sqft
💰 Price: $339,900 | Rent: $2,195
📊 Cap Rate: 5.8% | NOI: $1,643
📅 Year Built: 2025
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $220
🏙️ Neighborhood: A+

and

Punta Gorda, FL
🏠 Property: Oceanic Rd
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 6 Bed • 4 Bath • 3032 sqft
💰 Price: $639,900 | Rent: $4,895
📊 Cap Rate: 6.9% | NOI: $3,685
📅 Year Built: 2025
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $212
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Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 21: 30-Year Fixed Rate Jumps by 11 Basis Points

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As of January 21, 2026, the cost of borrowing for a home has nudged upwards. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now averaging 5.99% (with an Annual Percentage Rate, or APR, of 6.16%), and the 15-year fixed rate stands at 5.375% (APR 5.66%). This uptick signals that buying a home or refinancing might cost you a little more this week, reflecting broader economic signals that are pushing Treasury yields – a key indicator for mortgage rates – to five-month highs.

Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 21: 30-Year Fixed Rate Jumps by 11 Basis Points

The Numbers: What Are Today’s Rates?

Let’s break down the specifics for January 21, 2026, according to Zillow’s latest data:

Loan Type Current Interest Rate APR Weekly Trend
30-Year Fixed 5.990% 6.166% Increased (+11 bps)
15-Year Fixed 5.375% 5.664% Increased (+19 bps)
20-Year Fixed 6.125% 6.353% N/A
10-Year Fixed 5.000% 5.432% N/A
30-Year FHA 5.875% 6.499% N/A
30-Year VA 6.000% 6.263% N/A
30-Year Jumbo 6.000% 6.172% N/A
7/6 ARM 6.000% 6.424% N/A
5/1 ARM 6.110% 6.340% Increased (+9 bps)

A quick note on APR vs. Interest Rate: While the interest rate is what you’ll see plastered on ads, the APR gives you a more realistic picture of the total cost of a loan because it includes things like fees and other charges. For budgeting your monthly payment, the interest rate is key; for comparing the true cost of different loan offers, the APR is your best friend.

This Week’s Rate Shift: A Closer Look

It wasn't just a tiny nudge; rates for the most common loan types have seen a noticeable climb:

  • 30-Year Fixed: We're looking at an average base rate of 5.99%, pushing the APR to 6.05%. This is about an 11 basis point (or 0.11%) increase from last week.
  • 15-Year Fixed: This popular option for those looking to pay off their mortgage faster has bumped up to 5.375% for the base rate, with the APR hitting 5.52%. That’s a more significant leap of 19 basis points (0.19%).
  • 5/1 ARMs (Adjustable-Rate Mortgages): Even these variable-rate loans saw an increase, moving up by 9 basis points to 6.11%.

Why the Jump? Let’s Talk Treasury Yields

So, what’s causing these mortgage rates to climb? The main culprit is the recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields. These government bonds are a big deal in the financial world, and their yields have hit a five-month high this January.

Think of it this way: the mortgage market and the bond market are like dance partners. When Treasury yields go up, mortgage lenders often have to offer higher interest rates to make your mortgage loan attractive enough for investors to buy. And what’s driving those Treasury yields higher? A few things, but lately, it’s been a mix of investor concerns about inflation and the long-term health of the economy. When there's uncertainty, investors often demand higher returns for holding on to those bonds, which translates to higher borrowing costs for consumers.

What This Means for You, the Borrower

These rate changes, while seemingly small in basis points, can add up.

  • Pocketbook Impact: If you’re looking to buy a home, your monthly payment will be slightly higher than it would have been last week. For someone looking at a $300,000 loan, even an extra 11 or 19 basis points can mean paying more interest over the life of the loan. This is why timing the market, or at least understanding the trends, is so important.
  • Fixed vs. ARM: With ARMs also showing an upward trend, the appeal of fixed-rate mortgages – your predictable 30-year or 15-year options – becomes even stronger for those seeking stability. While ARMs might seem attractive initially with lower rates, the risk of rates climbing significantly after the initial fixed period is a major consideration, especially when even those introductory rates are rising.
  • The Crystal Ball: The fact that Treasury yields are fluctuating and reaching new highs suggests we might continue to see some movement in mortgage rates. It’s not necessarily a rocket ship to the moon, but expecting them to stay perfectly still might be a bit optimistic.

What's the Outlook for 2026?

Based on my understanding and what I've been seeing from analysts and economists across the board, the general sentiment for the rest of 2026 is one of stabilization, with a potential for slight moderation. We're hearing forecasts that rates will likely hover in the 5.9% to 6.4% range for the 30-year fixed, but a return to the unprecedented lows we saw during the pandemic era (think those 3% rates) is highly unlikely. Those were extraordinary times fueled by massive economic stimulus, and the economic landscape has shifted considerably since then.

Experts like those from the Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae are generally aligning on this outlook. They’re keeping a close eye on key factors:

  • Inflation: Is it cooling down, or is it still a persistent worry?
  • The Bond Market: The 10-year Treasury yield remains a primary indicator.
  • Economic Growth: A strong economy can lead to higher rates, while a weaker one might prompt the Federal Reserve to consider lowering them.
  • Federal Reserve Policy: While the Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates, their decisions on interest rates and other economic tools significantly influence the market.

My Take: Don't Get Discouraged, Get Prepared

It's easy to feel a bit discouraged when you see rates inching up. But from my experience, this is a normal part of the economic cycle. The key is to be informed and prepared. If you're planning to buy, having your finances in order, getting pre-approved early, and understanding your budget is more important than ever.

For those thinking about refinancing, it’s a constant evaluation. If you secured a rate significantly lower than today’s offerings, it might be worth holding onto it. But if you're on the fence, or if you've made significant improvements to your credit or loan principal, it’s always worth getting quotes to see if a refinance still makes sense, even with these rising rates.

And remember, shopping around is absolutely vital. Rates can vary quite a bit from one lender to another. A difference of even a quarter of a percent can save you tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. Don’t be afraid to get multiple quotes from different banks, credit unions, and mortgage brokers.

Summary on Today’s Mortgage Market

As we look at today’s mortgage rates on January 21, 2026, the trend is clear: borrowing costs have increased. The rise in both the 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates means that anyone looking to enter the housing market or change their current mortgage will face slightly higher expenses. Driven by rising Treasury yields, these rate adjustments are a signal for borrowers to be proactive.

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Port Charlotte, FL
🏠 Property: Aldridge Ave
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 3 Bed • 2 Bath • 1548 sqft
💰 Price: $339,900 | Rent: $2,195
📊 Cap Rate: 5.8% | NOI: $1,643
📅 Year Built: 2025
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $220
🏙️ Neighborhood: A+

and

Punta Gorda, FL
🏠 Property: Oceanic Rd
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 6 Bed • 4 Bath • 3032 sqft
💰 Price: $639,900 | Rent: $4,895
📊 Cap Rate: 6.9% | NOI: $3,685
📅 Year Built: 2025
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $212
🏙️ Neighborhood: B+

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View All Properties 

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Will Lower Rates and Incentives Make New Construction Homes Affordable in 2026?

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After years of rising costs, new construction homes may finally be edging toward affordability in 2026. Mortgage rate forecasts point to potential declines, while builders are increasingly offering incentives to move inventory. Together, those shifts could meaningfully change the math for buyers weighing whether to build or buy next year.

Will Lower Rates and Incentives Make New Construction Homes Affordable in 2026?

It's an exciting time for anyone looking to buy a home, and the National Association of Home Builders believes the 2026 new-home market presents a rare opportunity for many buyers. After years of soaring prices and intense competition, the scales are beginning to tip, offering a different kind of advantage for those willing to explore newly built options.

For a long time, buying a brand-new home felt like a luxury reserved for those with deeper pockets. The price gap between a move-in-ready house that someone else built and lived in, and a fresh, never-lived-in construction, was significant. However, the data is starting to confirm what many in the industry have suspected: the price difference between new and existing homes is shrinking. In some places, you might actually find a new build is cheaper than a comparable resale! This isn't just a minor fluctuation; it's a sign that the market is evolving, and it could mean a golden ticket for smart buyers.

Why is This Happening Now? A Builder's Response to Reality

The home building industry, like any business, is always responding to what the market needs and can afford. In recent times, builders have faced a perfect storm of challenges. As Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders, noted, 2025 was a bit of a tough year for new single-family homes. Construction fell by about 7%, largely due to persistent housing affordability issues and frustrating supply-side problems, including a critical shortage of skilled labor.

Builders heard the message loud and clear: homes were becoming too expensive for many potential buyers. So, they've been adapting. This includes:

  • Smarter Pricing: Builders have been adjusting their prices. You're seeing more price cuts, some as significant as 5%, and this is a direct response to buyer demand and market conditions.
  • Generous Incentives: This is where buyers can really shine. Nearly two-thirds of builders are offering incentives. These aren't just small gestures; they're designed to make a real difference.
  • Smaller, Smarter Homes: The trend towards building smaller homes continues. This isn't about cutting corners; it's about building homes that are more aligned with what people need and can afford today.

The Sweet Spot: When New Homes Become More Attractive

Historically, if you wanted a brand-new house with all the latest features and no immediate repair worries, you expected to pay a premium, usually around 10% to 15% more than an existing home. This made sense – you were getting top-of-the-line everything. But as I've seen, that premium is vanishing.

What's changed? Well, those builder incentives I mentioned are a huge factor. They're not just about making the price tag look better; they're often practical. A very common one is a mortgage rate buydown. This is fantastic for buyers because it lowers your monthly payments for the first year or two, giving you crucial breathing room as you settle into your new home. Builders are also offering upgrade packages on things like countertops or appliances, and assistance with closing costs. These can add up to significant savings, making the overall cost of a new build much more competitive.

The fact that the median resale home is now more expensive than the median new build is truly remarkable. It's a situation that's rarely occurred in decades and speaks volumes about the current market dynamics.

Building Our Way Out of the Affordability Crisis

I often hear people talk about the housing affordability crisis, and it’s a real concern. Statistics show that nearly 20% of young adults are living with their parents, double the historical rate. This isn't a lifestyle choice for most; it's a symptom of not being able to afford a place of their own. The only real, long-term solution to this widespread affordability issue is to simply have more housing available.

This means increasing the supply of single-family homes, multifamily units, and homes for both sale and rent. Builders are not just building bigger houses; they're building more homes, and more types of homes.

One area that's seen a real surge is townhomes. A decade ago, townhomes made up less than 10% of single-family construction. Now, they're about 18%. Why? They offer a path to homeownership with light-touch density. This means smaller lots, shared walls, but still that coveted front door and a way into the market, especially for younger buyers looking for walkable communities. The challenge here is that zoning laws in many places still make it difficult to build these types of homes.

I also see tremendous potential in redeveloping underused properties. Think about old shopping malls that are no longer profitable. Turning them into mixed-use communities with apartments and townhomes is a smart way to create needed housing in accessible locations. This kind of creative thinking is crucial for the future.

What Else is Influencing the Market?

  • Smaller Footprints: As I mentioned, homes are getting smaller. Builders are responding to affordability pressures by focusing on reduced square footage. This, along with smaller lots and more townhomes, is about creating homes that are right-sized for today's buyers and budgets.
  • Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve's actions to ease short-term interest rates late in 2025 are a significant positive for builders. When the Fed lowers its rates, it generally reduces the cost of loans for builders, covering everything from acquiring land to paying workers. Since many builders, especially smaller ones, rely on these loans, lower rates mean better financing, which can translate into more construction and ultimately, more options for buyers. While the Fed doesn't directly control mortgage rates, its influence is definitely felt by builders.
  • Geographic Shifts: I'm also watching where the building is happening. While areas like Texas and Florida, which saw massive growth, have cooled a bit, there are real pockets of strength emerging in the Midwest. Places like Columbus, Ohio, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are seeing more activity. These cities tend to be more affordable, are often near major universities, and are attracting investment, which means jobs and people needing homes. In fact, single-family construction in the Midwest was already growing in 2025, even as the national trend dipped, and this outperformance is expected to continue.

Looking Ahead: Is 2026 Your Year?

The combination of builder incentives, more competitive pricing on new homes, and the persistent need for more housing supply all point to a very interesting year for buyers in 2026. While challenges like skilled labor shortages and some policy uncertainties remain, the current environment feels like a rare window where the traditional arguments against buying new might be outweighed by the immediate financial benefits.

If you've been priced out or have found existing homes to be too competitive, it might be time to seriously explore what the new-home market has to offer. The builders are actively trying to meet demand and affordability head-on, and for discerning buyers, that means opportunity.

🏡 2 Amazing Properties Available for Investors

Port Charlotte, FL
🏠 Property: Aldridge Ave
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 3 Bed • 2 Bath • 1548 sqft
💰 Price: $339,900 | Rent: $2,195
📊 Cap Rate: 5.8% | NOI: $1,643
📅 Year Built: 2025
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $220
🏙️ Neighborhood: A+

VS

Punta Gorda, FL
🏠 Property: Oceanic Rd
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 6 Bed • 4 Bath • 3032 sqft
💰 Price: $639,900 | Rent: $4,895
📊 Cap Rate: 6.9% | NOI: $3,685
📅 Year Built: 2025
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $212
🏙️ Neighborhood: B+

Florida’s A+ affordable rental vs Punta Gorda’s larger high‑yield property. Which fits YOUR investment strategy?

We have much more inventory available than what you see on our website – Let us know about your requirement.

📈 Choose Your Winner & Contact Us Today!

Talk to a Norada investment counselor (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

View All Properties

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 21: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 17 Basis Points

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As of Wednesday, January 21, 2026, the national average 30-year fixed refinance rate has nudged up by 17 basis points from last week, now sitting at 6.69%. While this might seem like a small shift, it’s important for homeowners to understand what it means for their wallets and their refinancing decisions. I’ve been watching these numbers closely for years, and even small moves can signal bigger trends.

Now, the market is doing its usual dance, reacting to everything from government announcements to global events. This week, the 30-year fixed refinance rate held steady from Tuesday to Wednesday, which is good news for those who were thinking about refinancing and haven't pulled the trigger yet. However, when you look back at the past week, that 17 basis point increase tells a different story – one of cautious upward momentum.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 21: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 17 Basis Points

Diving Deeper into Today's Rates

Let’s break down what’s happening with the different mortgage refinance options available right now.

The Popular 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate

The 30-year fixed refinance rate is the go-to for many homeowners, and for good reason. It offers a predictable monthly payment over a long period, making budgeting easier. Today, this rate is at 6.69%. While it’s the same as yesterday, that increase of 17 basis points from last week’s average of 6.52% is what we need to pay attention to. This upward tick suggests that if you were waiting for rates to drop further, you might be missing out on some pretty good opportunities that were available just a few days ago.

The Faster Payoff: 15-Year Fixed Refinance Rate

For those who want to pay off their mortgage sooner and save big on interest over the life of the loan, the 15-year fixed refinance rate is still looking solid. It’s holding steady at 5.68%, both day-to-day and week-over-week. This rate is fantastic for principal reduction, though it does mean a higher monthly payment. The stability here is a good sign, offering certainty for borrowers who prefer a quicker path to being mortgage-free.

The Adjustable-Rate Option: 5-Year ARM

The 5-year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) is currently less appealing. At 7.17%, it’s sitting higher than both fixed-rate options. Typically, ARMs start with lower rates than fixed mortgages, giving borrowers an initial break. But with the current numbers, that initial advantage seems to have vanished. Unless your financial situation is very specific and you plan to move or refinance again before the rate starts adjusting, a fixed-rate loan seems like the smarter choice right now.

A Snapshot: Rate Comparison

To make things even clearer, here’s a quick look at how the rates stack up:

Loan Type Last Week Avg. Current Avg. Change (Basis Points)
30-Year Fixed 6.52% 6.69% +17
15-Year Fixed 5.68% 5.68% 0
5-Year ARM 7.17% 7.17% 0

Looking at this table, it’s clear that the 30-year fixed rate is the one showing movement. The other two options are holding their ground, which provides a bit of stability in the market.

What This Means for Your Refinancing Plans

So, what does this all add up to for homeowners like you and me?

  • Higher Refinancing Costs: That 17 basis point rise in the 30-year fixed rate means your monthly payment will likely be a little higher than it would have been last week if you refinance today. It's not a huge leap, but it's enough to notice.
  • Short-Term Calm: The fact that rates didn’t move from Tuesday to Wednesday is a small comfort. It suggests lenders aren’t making drastic changes day by day, even with bigger market shifts happening. It gives you a small window to act.
  • Fixed is Still King: With the 5-year ARM higher than fixed rates, it just doesn't make much sense for most people to go with an ARM right now. The predictability and current cost of fixed-rate loans are much more attractive.

Peering into the Crystal Ball: The Outlook for 2026

Predicting mortgage rates is a bit like forecasting the weather – sometimes you get it right, and sometimes you’re caught in an unexpected storm. However, we can look at the trends and expert opinions to get a general idea.

The Federal Reserve's actions and the overall inflation situation will heavily influence where rates go next. Even though we saw a weekly increase, the day-to-day stability gives a hint of what might come.

Last week’s news about a surprise government policy to purchase mortgage-backed securities was a big deal. It drove rates down significantly, and many people, myself included, thought we might see that trend continue. But the market is quick to react. Geopolitical events and issues in overseas markets caused rates to jump back up sharply on Tuesday. This shows how interconnected everything is and how quickly things can change.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a massive 128% jump in refinance activity compared to last year. This surge makes total sense. Lots of people refinanced when rates were at their lowest, but many others who bought homes more recently (say, in early 2025) might have rates above 7%. They're now looking to refinance to save a substantial amount of money.

For context, the average 30-year rate in January 2025 was around 7.04%. So, even at today’s 6.69%, homeowners who bought in the last year or so are still in a good position to save money.

As for the rest of 2026, the general consensus among housing economists is that rates will likely hover between 6.0% and 6.4%. Some forecasts, like Fannie Mae’s, predict a dip to 5.9% by the end of the year, while others, like Morgan Stanley, see potential for rates as low as 5.5%–5.75% by mid-year if Treasury yields continue to fall.

However, there's a phenomenon called the “lock-in effect”. Many people already have mortgages with rates below 5%. For them, refinancing makes no sense unless rates drop significantly lower. This means we probably won't see a massive nationwide refinancing boom unless there’s a much bigger rate drop.

My Take on Today's Rates

From my perspective, today’s rate environment offers a mixed bag. The upward movement in the 30-year fixed rate is a gentle nudge to homeowners who’ve been on the fence about refinancing. It’s not a crisis, but it’s a signal that waiting too long might mean paying more. The stability in the 15-year fixed and 5-year ARM rates means those options are still what they were yesterday.

If you’re thinking about refinancing, especially to lower your monthly payment or get rid of private mortgage insurance (PMI), it’s worth getting quotes now. Compare offers from different lenders. Understand all the fees involved in refinancing, not just the rate. Sometimes, a slightly higher rate with fewer fees can be a better deal.

The best action plan is always to understand your own financial goals. Are you looking for the lowest monthly payment possible, or do you want to be debt-free faster? Your answer will guide whether the 30-year or 15-year fixed is the better choice for your refinance.

🏡 2 Renovated Properties Available for Investors

Port Charlotte, FL
🏠 Property: Dorion St
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 4 Bed • 4 Bath • 2086 sqft
💰 Price: $412,400 | Rent: $3,190
📊 Cap Rate: 6.2% | NOI: $2,124
📅 Year Built: 2023
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $198
🏙️ Neighborhood: A+

and

Kansas City, MO
🏠 Property: E 110th Terrace
🛏️ Beds/Baths: 3 Bed • 2 Bath • 1002 sqft
💰 Price: $220,000 | Rent: $1,700
📊 Cap Rate: 6.9% | NOI: $1,273
📅 Year Built: 1957
📐 Price/Sq Ft: $220
🏙️ Neighborhood: A-

Florida’s modern build with strong cash flow vs Missouri’s affordable rental with higher cap rate. Which fits YOUR investment strategy?

We have much more inventory available than what you see on our website – Let us know about your requirement.

📈 Choose Your Winner & Contact Us Today!

Talk to a Norada investment counselor (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

View All Properties 

Invest Smart — Build Long-Term Wealth Through Turnkey Real Estate in 2026

Market forecasts suggest steady demand, making turnkey real estate one of the most reliable paths to passive income and wealth creation.

Norada Real Estate helps investors capitalize on these trends with turnkey rental properties designed for appreciation and consistent cash flow—so you can grow wealth securely while others wait for clarity in the market.

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Best Turnkey Duplex Properties in Cleveland for 2026 Investors

by

If you're looking to make smart investments in real estate that deliver steady income without a massive headache, then focusing on the turnkey duplex properties in Cleveland is a fantastic starting point. Cleveland, Ohio, is buzzing with opportunities for investors who want to get into the rental market with properties that are ready to go, meaning less work for you and faster cash flow. I've seen firsthand how the right duplex in the right Cleveland neighborhood can be a goldmine.

It’s not just about finding any property; it’s about finding smart properties in a city that truly understands the needs of both renters and investors. Cleveland checks a lot of the boxes that make a rental market sing: prices that don't break the bank, the ability to earn good rent compared to what you paid, and solid potential for consistent monthly returns. When you add in the “turnkey” aspect – meaning the property is already in good shape and ready for tenants – it really simplifies the whole investment process.

Best Turnkey Duplex Properties in Cleveland for 2026 Investors

Why Cleveland Continues to Shine for Real Estate Investors

From my perspective, what makes Cleveland so attractive isn't just one thing, but a combination of factors that create a fertile ground for rental income. It’s a city with a strong comeback story, and that translates directly into opportunity for those of us looking to build wealth through property.

  • Getting In Without Breaking the Bank: One of the biggest draws of Cleveland is how affordable it is to buy property. You can often find great deals that are significantly less than what you'd pay in larger coastal cities. This lower entry price means less capital tied up and a quicker path to profitability.
  • Getting More Bang for Your Buck (Rent-to-Value): This is where things get really interesting for investors. Many duplexes in Cleveland offer excellent rent-to-value ratios. This means the amount of rent you can collect each month is a healthy percentage of the property's purchase price. It's not uncommon to see properties hitting or even exceeding the “1% rule” – a popular benchmark where monthly rent should be at least 1% of the purchase price. This is a golden indicator of strong cash flow potential.
  • Steady Cash Flow is the Name of the Game: When you're looking for investments, consistent cash flow is key. Cleveland neighborhoods frequently show capitalization rates (cap rates) that outperform many other markets, especially those on the coasts. A good cap rate means your property is generating solid profit on your investment.
  • The Turnkey Advantage: Less Hassle, More Profit: This is crucial. “Turnkey” properties are your dream starting point. They're usually updated, already have tenants, or are move-in ready for tenants. This means you can skip the stressful, time-consuming, and expensive renovation phase. You can start collecting rent much sooner, which is the ultimate goal for any investor.

A Real-World Look: A Turnkey Duplex Success Story

To give you a concrete idea of what’s out there, let's look at a specific example that really highlights the potential. This property is on W 117th St in Cleveland that truly embodies the kind of opportunity we're talking about.

Feature Detail
Location W 117th St, Cleveland, OH
Bedrooms 4 (across both units)
Bathrooms 2 (across both units)
Size 4,800 sqft
Parking 1 off-street spot
Year Built 1952
Purchase Price $169,900
Estimated Rental Income $1,660/month
Price per Square Foot $36
Rent to Value Ratio 1.0%
Neighborhood Grade B-
Cap Rate 8.3%
Cash Flow (NOI) $1,173/month

This duplex isn't just a building; it's a working investment. The numbers here tell a compelling story.

Breaking Down the Investment Numbers

Looking at the data from the W 117th St duplex, here’s what really stands out from an investor's standpoint:

  • Cap Rate (8.3%): This is a strong cap rate, especially in today's market. It means that after all your operating expenses are paid, the property is generating a healthy return on the money you invested. For many investors, a cap rate above 7% is considered good, so 8.3% is definitely moving in the right direction.
  • Rent to Value Ratio (1.0%): As I mentioned, hitting the “1% rule” is a big win. This means the monthly rent collected is equal to 1% of the purchase price ($169,900 * 0.01 = $1,699, which is very close to the $1,660 actual rent). This ratio is a quick way to assess if a property is likely to generate solid cash flow.
  • Cash Flow (NOI $1,173/month): This is the money that lands in your bank account after you subtract operating expenses like property taxes, insurance, and potential maintenance. A consistent positive cash flow of over $1,100 per month is fantastic. It provides you with passive income and a buffer against unexpected costs.
  • Neighborhood Grade (B-): This grade suggests a neighborhood that is stable and has consistent tenant demand without being overly expensive or having the highest vacancy rates. A “B-” is a sweet spot for many investors seeking a balance between affordability for tenants and strong rental demand.
Invest in Cleveland Turnkey Duplexes

Norada Real Estate helps you secure turnkey duplex properties in Cleveland—designed for immediate cash flow, appreciation, and passive income.

Duplex investing means stronger returns and scalable wealth for savvy investors.

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Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):
(800) 611-3060

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What This Means for Your Investment Strategy in 2026

The opportunity presented by a property like the W 117th St duplex is versatile. It’s not just for one type of investor.

  • For Those Just Starting Out: If you're new to real estate investing, a duplex under $170,000 that's turnkey is an incredibly accessible entry point. You can learn the ropes of being a landlord with a property that's already set up for success, reducing the initial learning curve and financial burden.
  • For Those Building Their Portfolio: If you already own a few properties, adding a well-performing duplex like this to your collection can significantly boost your overall returns. The strong cash flow and good cap rate make it a smart addition to diversify and increase your income streams.
  • For Those Seeking Passive Income: The beauty of a turnkey property is that it requires minimal effort from you once acquired. You can focus on managing your portfolio and enjoying the passive income without getting bogged down in repairs or tenant screening initially. It’s the closest you can get to a “set it and forget it” investment.

The Takeaway on Cleveland’s Turnkey Duplexes

In my experience, the turnkey duplex properties in Cleveland represent a real sweet spot for investors. You get affordability, strong potential for monthly cash flow, and the convenience of a ready-to-rent property. Properties like the one on W 117th St, with its impressive cap rate and rent-to-value ratio, are not just listings; they are pathways to building wealth and achieving financial freedom through real estate. Cleveland continues to make a strong case as a prime location for smart rental property investment, and savvy investors are wise to pay attention.

Want Better Cash Flow? Invest in High-Demand Housing Markets

Turnkey rental properties in fast-growing housing markets, such as Cleveland, offer a powerful way to generate passive income with minimal hassle.

Work with Norada Real Estate to find such stable, cash-flowing markets beyond the bubble zones—so you can build wealth without the risks of ultra-competitive areas.

🔥 HOT NEW LISTINGS JUST ADDED! 🔥

Talk to a Norada investment counselor today (No Obligation):

(800) 611-3060

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