California Housing Market Rebounds Driven by Lower Mortgage Rates

After a somewhat sluggish summer, the California housing market showed signs of life in August, with existing single-family home sales experiencing a noticeable uptick. This rebound, primarily driven by more favorable mortgage rates, has brought a welcome wave of activity back to the Golden State's property scene.

In August, California home sales rose 0.9% compared to July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 264,240 units. While this figure still sits slightly below last year's numbers, the positive month-over-month growth, coupled with an increase in pending sales, offers a glimmer of hope for a stronger finish to the year.

California Housing Market Rebounds in August as Lower Rates Lift Demand

For anyone following the California real estate trends, this news will likely come as a breath of fresh air. As a real estate enthusiast and observer, I’ve seen firsthand how sensitive this market is to even slight shifts in interest rates. When rates climb, potential buyers often hit the pause button, waiting for more affordable borrowing conditions.

Conversely, when rates ease, even by a little, we tend to see a ripple effect of renewed interest and activity. August’s report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) confirms this pattern, suggesting that buyers are starting to re-enter the market, enticed by the prospect of lower monthly payments.

The Lower Interest Rate Effect: A Game Changer

The primary catalyst for this August rebound appears to be the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.59% in August, which, while slightly higher than August of the previous year (6.50%), saw a significant drop from earlier summer months, reaching a 10-month low. This cooling of mortgage rates proved to be a critical factor in re-energizing buyer demand. C.A.R. President Heather Ozur noted, “Many prospective homebuyers have been holding out in hopes of lower mortgage rates, and the declining trend in rates observed in the last few weeks could be the nudge that draw them back to the market.” This sentiment resonates deeply with my experience; I’ve spoken with numerous clients who were patiently waiting for that perfect moment to make their move, and it seems August provided that opportunity for many.

Pending sales in August saw a remarkable 8.3% increase from July, a strong indicator of future closed sales. This surge in buyer commitments, reaching its highest point in nine months on a year-over-year basis, paints a picture of a market that’s beginning to regain momentum. The fact that rates have continued to ease in recent weeks, even amidst signs of economic softening, further bolsters the argument that the housing market might see sustained improvement.

Price Stabilization: A Welcome Sight

Beyond the sales activity, August also brought some positive news on the price front. The statewide median home price finally rebounded in August to $899,140, marking an increase of 1.7% from July. Crucially, this also represents a year-over-year gain of 1.2% compared to August 2024, ending a three-month streak of annual price declines. This stabilization, or even slight appreciation, is significant because it signals a market finding its balance.

As C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine explained, “Soft sales demand led to a steady decline in California’s median home price for three consecutive months through early summer. However, with a slight uptick in the median price in August and a stabilization in the number of reduced-price listings last month, the market appears to have found a short-term balance between supply and demand.” This balance is crucial. Buyers become more confident when they see prices holding steady or increasing slightly, as it reduces the fear of buying at a peak. For sellers, it means their property’s value is holding firm, which is encouraging.

Regional Variations: A Tale of Two Californias

While the statewide numbers paint a generally positive picture, it’s important to acknowledge the diverse performance across California’s regions. Not all areas experienced the same level of sales growth.

Region	August 2025 Sales (YTY % Change)	August 2025 Median Price (YTY % Change)
Far North	+2.9%	-3.1%
Central Coast	+1.6%	+6.3%
San Francisco Bay Area	-4.1%	+2.8%
Southern California	-3.7%	+1.2%
Central Valley	-3.5%	-1.0%

As you can see, the Far North and Central Coast regions were the only major areas that saw year-over-year sales increases. The San Francisco Bay Area, while experiencing a sales decline, still managed a healthy price increase of 2.8%. Southern California and the Central Valley saw modest dips in sales but still registered slight price gains. This demonstrates that while lower rates provided a general lift, local market dynamics, inventory levels, and economic conditions in each region play a significant role in their individual performance.

At the county level, the variations are even more pronounced. For instance, Mariposa County led the charge with an astounding 81.8% sales growth year-over-year, followed by Lassen (46.7%) and Kings (36.1%). On the flip side, Yuba County saw a significant drop of 35.3%. Similarly, price changes varied widely, with Santa Barbara County seeing a remarkable 32.6% price increase, while Del Norte County experienced a significant decline of 21.7%. These numbers highlight the importance of looking beyond the statewide averages and understanding the nuances of individual local markets.

Inventory and Days on Market: Shifting Dynamics

The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which indicates how many months it would take to sell current active listings, ticked up slightly to 3.9 months in August, from 3.7 in July and 3.2 in August 2024. This suggests that while demand has improved, supply conditions remain relatively favorable for buyers. However, it's worth noting that the pace of inventory growth has slowed, with total active listings up 23.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace since March. This deceleration in inventory growth could be an early sign that the supply side is starting to cool as the market moves into its seasonal slowdown.

The time it takes to sell a home also reflects the changing market dynamics. In August, the median time to sell a California single-family home was 31 days, an increase from 22 days in August 2024. This longer selling period, especially when compared to the previous year, indicates that while buyer demand is up, it's not necessarily a frenzied market. Buyers have a bit more time to consider their options, and we're seeing a sales-to-list price ratio of 98.3% in August, down from 100% a year ago. This means that on average, homes are selling slightly below their asking price, which is a departure from the bidding wars that characterized the market in recent years. This is good news for buyers who can now negotiate more effectively and potentially secure a home without the intense competition.

What Does This Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

For potential buyers, August’s data suggests a market that is becoming more accessible. The slight dip in mortgage rates, combined with the stabilization of home prices and a slightly longer selling period, means that there’s less pressure and more opportunity to find a suitable property. Buyers who were on the sidelines observing can now potentially re-enter the market with more confidence, armed with the knowledge that they might not face the same level of intense bidding. Affordability remains a key concern, of course, but the easing of rates offers a much-needed reprieve.

For sellers, August’s rebound is encouraging, demonstrating that demand is still present. However, it also highlights the need for realistic pricing strategies. With homes taking slightly longer to sell and selling closer to the asking price, rather than above it, it’s crucial for sellers to price their homes competitively. The data suggests that the ultra-hot seller’s market might be moderating, requiring a more nuanced approach to marketing and negotiation.

Looking Ahead: Cautious Optimism

The August report from C.A.R. provides a much-needed injection of optimism into the California housing market. The rebound in sales, spurred by lower mortgage rates and a stabilization in prices, suggests that the market is navigating its challenges effectively. While year-over-year sales are still slightly down, the positive month-over-month trends and the surge in pending sales indicate a potential for continued improvement.

My own take on this is one of cautious optimism. The market is stabilizing, offering a more balanced environment for both buyers and sellers. The key going forward will be how mortgage rates behave. If they remain at these more manageable levels or continue to ease, we could see sustained positive momentum. However, any significant uptick in rates could quickly dampen this newfound enthusiasm. It's a delicate dance, and all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and economic indicators in the coming months.

For now, the California housing market is showing resilience, and August’s performance is a testament to the enduring appeal of homeownership, even in a challenging economic climate.