Mortgage Rates Today July 25, 2025: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 7 basis points

Mortgage rates today, July 25, 2025, show a modest increase with the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbing slightly from 6.88% to 6.89%. Refinancing rates are also up, with the 30-year fixed refinance rate rising from 7.11% to 7.13%. Despite strong economic indicators like solid employment and income growth, mortgage rates remain elevated and are not expected to drop significantly in the near term.

Mortgage Rates Today July 25, 2025: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 7 basis points

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 6.89%, up 1 basis point from last week.
• 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.94%, also slightly increased.
• 5-year ARM mortgage rate increased to 7.72%, up 3 basis points.
• 30-year fixed refinance rate increased to 7.13%, rising 2 basis points from last week.
• Economic fundamentals are strong but rates remain high, limiting expectations for near-term drops.
• Experts predict mortgage rates may average around 6.4% in late 2025 and dip slightly in 2026.
• Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and inflation trends strongly influence mortgage rates.

Overview of Current Mortgage Rates as of July 25, 2025

According to the latest data from Zillow, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate nationally is 6.89%, a slight increase from 6.88% the previous week. Though this is a marginal change, it reflects the ongoing trend of mortgage rates sitting near 7% — levels higher than what homebuyers saw a few years ago. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.94%, increasing modestly by 1 basis point, while the 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rose to 7.72%.

Let's put these key mortgage rate numbers into perspective with a simple table:

Mortgage Program	Rate on July 25, 2025	1-Week Change	APR	1-Week APR Change
30-Year Fixed Rate	6.89%	+0.01% (1 basis pt)	7.34%	0.00%
15-Year Fixed Rate	5.94%	+0.01%	6.25%	+0.02%
20-Year Fixed Rate	6.28%	-0.43%	6.76%	-0.27%
10-Year Fixed Rate	5.72%	-0.31%	6.09%	-0.03%
7-Year ARM	6.44%	-1.13%	7.50%	-0.46%
5-Year ARM	7.72%	-0.11%	8.00%	-0.12%

(Source: Zillow – July 25, 2025)

Government-backed loans such as FHA and VA mortgages have slightly different rates:

Government Loan Program	Rate on July 25, 2025	1-Week Change	APR	1-Week APR Change
30-Year Fixed FHA	7.75%	+0.48%	8.78%	+0.47%
30-Year Fixed VA	6.42%	+0.06%	6.64%	+0.07%
15-Year Fixed FHA	5.42%	-0.04%	6.44%	-0.04%
15-Year Fixed VA	5.97%	+0.07%	6.33%	+0.09%

Current Refinance Rates as of July 25, 2025

Refinancing—a popular option for homeowners seeking better terms or cash out—also shows a slight uptick in rates. The 30-year fixed refinance rate averaged 7.13%, an increase of 2 basis points from last week’s 7.11%. The 15-year fixed refinance rate increased to 6.00%, and the 5-year ARM refinance rate is nearly flat at 7.95%.

Here is a quick table summarizing refinance rates:

Refinance Program	Rate on July 25, 2025	1-Week Change
30-Year Fixed Refinance	7.13%	+0.02%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	6.00%	+0.07%
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.95%	+0.01%

Impact on Homebuyers and Refinancing Borrowers

Rising mortgage rates, even slight, can have a significant impact on affordability. For example, here’s a basic calculation for a $400,000 home loan with a 20% down payment ($80,000 down):

• At a 6.89% interest rate (30-year fixed), monthly principal and interest payments come to approximately $2,373.
• If rates were to drop to 6.25%, those payments would be about $2,276, saving nearly $100 monthly.

For refinancers, rate fluctuations also influence whether refinancing is cost-effective, particularly when closing costs are factored in.

Expert Forecasts on Mortgage Rates for 2025 and Beyond

Several major housing and economic organizations provide forecasts and analysis based on current economic trends, Federal Reserve policies, and housing market activity:

Realtor.com Forecast

• Mortgage rates expected to ease slowly but remain close to current levels.
• Home sales projected around 4 million for 2025, slightly below 2024.
• Home price growth to slow further to approximately 2.5%.

Fannie Mae and Mortgage Bankers Association Predictions

• Fannie Mae projects mortgage rates ending 2025 near 6.5% and 6.1% for 2026.
• Mortgage Bankers Association foresees rates mostly stable around 6.7% through late 2025, with minor fluctuations into 2026.
• Both emphasize ongoing inflation and economic variables as key rate drivers.

Morgan Stanley Strategists' Insight

• Mortgage rates could fall alongside Treasury yields in 2026.
• Housing affordability may improve if rates dip below 6.5%.
• Example: For a $1 million home, monthly costs could drop by nearly $400 if rates decrease from 7% to 6.25%.

The Federal Reserve’s Role in Mortgage Rate Trends

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy heavily influences mortgage rates, though it does not set them directly. Here’s the latest on Fed actions affecting mortgage rates:

• The Fed cut rates three times between September and December 2024—dropping the federal funds rate to 4.25%-4.5%.
• As of June 2025, rates have held steady with expectations for two rate cuts later in 2025, though timing remains uncertain.
• Economic factors such as inflation, tariffs, GDP growth, and employment influence Fed policy decisions.
• Market sentiment suggests a cautious approach from the Fed, balancing inflation control and economic growth risks.
• Mortgage rates currently average near 6.8% but could decline toward 5% over the next few years if the Fed cuts rates as projected.

The Fed meeting on July 30, 2025, is likely to hold rates steady but may signal upcoming rate cuts depending on economic data.

Summary Table: What Mortgage Rate Means for Buyers

Rate (%)	Monthly Payment on $400,000 Loan (30-yr fixed)	Notes
6.89%	$2,373	Current rate (July 25, 2025)
6.40%	$2,223	Forecasted late 2025 average
6.10%	$2,124	Predicted rate for 2026
7.00%	$2,661	Example of a slightly higher rate

(Monthly payments exclude taxes and insurance; calculated principal & interest only)

Personal Perspective and Industry Observations

From my experience following mortgage trends for years, the steady rise in mortgage and refinance rates to nearly 7% is challenging for many buyers and refinancers. However, this environment also encourages smart planning. Given the economic context—solid job numbers but persistent inflationary pressures—expecting a rapid drop in rates soon is unrealistic.

Borrowers who can qualify at current rates should weigh their options carefully, considering that forecasts point to only gradual declines. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach keeps the door open for rate cuts, but those will likely be moderate and delayed into late 2025 or beyond.

It’s also illuminating how adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and government-backed loans offer alternative paths that might lower initial costs for some borrowers, but they come with their own risks. Rate trends point to a need for consumers to remain vigilant and informed as they navigate a housing market with higher borrowing costs than seen in recent history.