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90% of Millennials Regret About Their First Home Purchase (2024)

February 13, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Millennials Regret About Their First Home Purchase

Recent findings from a survey conducted by Real Estate Witch shed light on the challenges faced by millennial homeowners. An astonishing 90% of millennial homeowners express regrets about their initial foray into homeownership. This statistic is a stark reflection of the difficulties this generation encounters in realizing the American dream of owning a home.

The desire for homeownership remains strong within the millennial cohort, with 78% acknowledging it as a crucial part of the American dream. However, financial barriers hinder their progress, as 48% believe homeownership is unaffordable for the average millennial.

Despite the fervent desire for homes, the harsh reality of the current market, characterized by high interest rates and a limited housing supply, has left many millennials feeling trapped. A staggering 93% claim that the market has impacted their home-buying plans, with 76% expressing concerns that it will worsen before they can secure a home.

In the pursuit of homeownership, millennials find themselves making various concessions. To afford a home within their budget, 42% are willing to compromise on the characteristics of the home, and 29% anticipate making financial concessions. These compromises include accepting a higher interest rate (39%), making multiple offers (36%), maxing out their budget (30%), and paying more than the asking price (29%).

Encouragingly, there are indications that the market is gradually shifting towards buyers. Approximately 41% of millennials expect to negotiate more with sellers, and 26% anticipate sellers lowering their prices. However, despite these positive signs, 96% of millennials remain concerned about purchasing a home, fearing challenges such as not finding a suitable home (35%) and having to make major repairs (35%).

Regrets of Millennial Homeowners

Among the 33% of millennials who have already purchased homes, the regret rate has risen from 82% in 2023 to an alarming 90% in 2024. Beyond the common regret of a bad location (27%), other prevalent concerns include bad neighbors (26%), high interest rates (25%), expensive mortgages (22%), and outgrowing the home too quickly (20%).

The hidden costs of homeownership contribute significantly to regrets. Beyond the mortgage, homeowners spend an average of nearly $17,500 annually on taxes, insurance, maintenance, and repairs. Notably, 18% regret the high upkeep, 16% find the costs associated with upkeep to be too expensive, and another 16% regret the overall expense of homeownership.

Financial Realities and Concerns

The financial challenges faced by millennials are evident in the data. High interest rates serve as a barrier for half of millennials (50%), with 67% expressing regret for not purchasing a home when rates were lower. In the face of financial constraints, 78% would consider accepting an interest rate higher than the national average of about 7%, and 65% would accept rates of 10% or more.

Furthermore, 96% state that high interest rates have affected their home-buying plans, with 70% citing the impact of inflation. A significant portion of millennials (47%) plans to put down less than 20% on a home, and 25% have less than $10,000 in savings, while 12% have less than $1,000, including 5% with nothing saved.

The median U.S. home cost stands at $431,000, yet 57% of millennials aim to purchase a home costing less than $400,000. Despite the challenges, 79% would pay above asking price for their dream home, albeit down from 85% in 2023.

Methodology:

This comprehensive analysis is based on data gathered by Clever Real Estate through a survey conducted on October 24-25, 2023. The survey included responses from 1,000 American adults actively seeking to purchase a home by the end of 2024.

In summary, Millennials face formidable challenges in the pursuit of homeownership, grappling with high costs, regrets, and financial constraints. As the real estate landscape evolves, it remains crucial to address the concerns of this generation, ensuring that the dream of owning a home becomes a more attainable reality.

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market

Housing Market Sees Surge in Home Prices in 2023

February 1, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Sees Surge in Home Prices in 2023

The housing market is experiencing a significant surge, with more than 80% of metro areas witnessing home price increases in the third quarter of 2023, according to the latest quarterly report from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). This surge comes amid fluctuations in mortgage rates, raising concerns about the accessibility of homeownership, especially for younger adults.

Market Dynamics and Trends

According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, homeowners have seen substantial wealth accumulation, with the typical homeowner gaining over $100,000 in overall net worth since 2019. However, the persistent lack of available homes on the market is making homeownership increasingly challenging for younger generations. The 30-year fixed mortgage rates, ranging from 6.81% to 7.31%, have contributed to this scenario.

Year-over-year, the national median single-family existing-home price increased by 2.2% to $406,900. The South led in single-family existing-home sales with a 46% share, experiencing a 1.7% year-over-year price appreciation. Meanwhile, the West saw a modest 0.6% price growth. Notably, certain metro areas, including Austin and Phoenix, experienced price declines, while others like San Jose and Anaheim recorded substantial increases.

Regional Variations and Top Performers

The South dominated with the largest share of home sales, while the Midwest showcased impressive year-over-year price increases in several metro areas. The top 10 metro areas with the most substantial price hikes, recording gains of at least 12.6%, were predominantly in the Midwest, emphasizing the region's robust real estate performance.

California, however, continued to be a focal point for expensive markets, with eight of the top 10 most expensive areas located in the state. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif., topped the list with a median home price of $1,850,000, reflecting a 9.6% increase.

Metro Areas in the Midwest Lead Top 10 in Year-Over-Year Price Increases

The real estate landscape showcases remarkable growth, with the top 10 metro areas experiencing substantial year-over-year price increases, all recording gains of at least 12.6%. Notably, six of these thriving markets are located in the Midwest, underlining the region's robust real estate performance.

  • Fond du Lac, Wis.: A remarkable 18.9% year-over-year price increase.
  • Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, N.C.: Impressive growth at 17.1% in the same period.
  • Oshkosh-Neenah, Wis.: Noteworthy with a 15.2% year-over-year price surge.
  • Green Bay, Wis.: Strong performance, recording a 14.8% increase.
  • Reading, Pa.: Demonstrating solid growth with a 14.7% year-over-year price rise.
  • Newark, N.J.-Pa.: Sustaining growth with a 14.3% increase in the same period.
  • Dayton, Ohio: Notable performance, boasting a 13.7% year-over-year price gain.
  • Fort Wayne, Ind.: Strong real estate growth, registering a 12.9% increase.
  • Farmington, N.M.: A significant 12.7% year-over-year price upswing.
  • Kankakee, Ill.: Showing resilience with a 12.6% increase in the same period.

California Dominates List of Most Expensive U.S. Real Estate Markets

When it comes to luxury real estate, California takes center stage, with eight of the top 10 most expensive markets in the United States located within the state. These exclusive markets reflect not only opulence but also diverse trends in property value appreciation.

  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.: Securing the top spot with a median home price of $1,850,000 and a significant 9.6% year-over-year increase.
  • Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, Calif.: Following closely with a median home price of $1,305,000 and an 8.7% year-over-year increase.
  • San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.: A median home price of $1,300,000, reflecting a 1.6% year-over-year increase.
  • Urban Honolulu, Hawaii: An outlier on the list with a median home price of $1,061,900, experiencing a -5.8% year-over-year decrease.
  • San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.: Maintaining its allure with a median home price of $978,500 and an 8.7% year-over-year increase.
  • Salinas, Calif.: A robust market with a median home price of $945,300, showcasing a 5.3% year-over-year increase.
  • Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.: Demonstrating resilience with a median home price of $921,500 and a 3.8% year-over-year increase.
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, Calif.: A prestigious market with a median home price of $897,600, marking a 1.4% year-over-year increase.
  • San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, Calif.: Sustaining its appeal with a median home price of $889,900 and a 1.7% year-over-year increase.
  • Boulder, Colo.: Representing the only non-Californian entry on the list, with a median home price of $857,800 and a 3.7% year-over-year increase.

Challenges for First-Time Buyers and Affordability Concerns

Despite the overall positive trends, the report highlights challenges for first-time buyers. Housing affordability worsened in the third quarter due to rising home prices and mortgage rates. The monthly mortgage payment for a typical existing single-family home with a 20% down payment increased to $2,192, a 7% rise from the second quarter and a 19.2% increase from one year ago.

First-time buyers faced particular difficulties, with the monthly mortgage payment for a typical starter home rising to $2,149, a 6.9% increase from the previous quarter. This challenges the dream of homeownership for many, as families typically spent 40.4% of their income on mortgage payments, up from 38.2% in the prior quarter.

Call for Action

Lawrence Yun emphasized the need for intervention to maintain market accessibility, calling on the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates. Congress, Yun suggested, should also explore incentives to boost housing supply and inventory, ensuring that homeownership remains within reach for a broader spectrum of Americans.

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market

Decline in US Home-Price Growth Amidst High Interest Rates

January 30, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Decline in US Home-Price Growth Amidst High Interest Rates

The latest data for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, reveal a deceleration in the upward trend for November 2023. Out of the 20 major metro markets, 12 reported month-over-month price decreases.

Year-Over-Year Analysis

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, surpassing the 4.7% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite exhibited an increase of 6.2%, up from a 5.7% increase in the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, compared to a 4.9% increase in the previous month. Notably, Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.2% increase in November, followed by San Diego with an 8% increase. Conversely, Portland saw a 0.7% decrease for the third consecutive month, remaining the only city reporting lower prices in November versus a year ago.

Month-Over-Month Trends

For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index and 20-City Composite posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, while the 10-City Composite posted a 0.1% decrease. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 10-City Composite saw month-over-month increases of 0.2%, while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% increase.

Analysis and Insights

According to Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P DJI, “U.S. home prices edged downward from their all-time high in November.” The streak of nine monthly gains ended, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months. Notably, Seattle and San Francisco reported the largest monthly declines, falling 1.4% and 1.3%, respectively.

November's year-over-year gain marked the largest growth in U.S. home prices in 2023. The National Composite rose 5.1%, and the 10-city index rose 6.2%. Detroit maintained its position as the best-performing market for the third consecutive month, accelerating to an 8.2% gain. San Diego notched an 8% annual gain, retaining its second spot in the nation.

Notably, six cities registered a new all-time high in November (Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte, New York, and Cleveland), while Portland remained the lone market in annual decline. The Northeast and Midwest recorded the largest gains with returns of 6.4% and 6.3%, respectively. The West showed the slowest gains at 3%. This month’s report revealed the narrowest spread of performance across the nation since the first quarter of 2021.

“The tight disparity speaks to a rising tide across the country, with less evidence of micro-markets bucking the trend,” says Brian D. Luke. The days of markets in the South rising double digits with markets in the Midwest remaining flat are over. The house price decline came at a time when mortgage rates peaked, with the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage nearing 8%, according to Federal Reserve data. The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices.

Future Outlook

The future outlook for U.S. home prices remains uncertain, with the recent decline in November signaling a potential shift in the market. Factors such as mortgage rates and regional disparities will likely continue to influence the housing landscape in the coming months.

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market

Will the Housing Market Boom as Builder Sentiment Surges?

January 17, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Will the Housing Market Boom as Builder Sentiment Surges?

Mortgage rates dipping below 7% in the last month triggered a significant surge in builder confidence at the onset of the new year. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes experienced a noteworthy climb, reaching 44 points in January. This seven-point increase marks the second consecutive monthly rise and closely aligns with the period of declining interest rates.

Impact of Lower Interest Rates

NAHB Chairman, Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer, attributes this boost in confidence to the improved affordability conditions resulting from lower interest rates in the past month. The reduced rates have enticed buyers back into the market, countering the dip in activity witnessed during the fall due to higher borrowing costs.

Huey anticipates a growth in single-family starts in 2024, contributing much-needed inventory to the market. However, she acknowledges that builders will face challenges, including building material cost and availability, along with lot supply.

Future Sales Expectations and Supply-Side Challenges

NAHB Chief Economist, Robert Dietz, highlights the substantial decrease of more than 110 basis points in mortgage rates since late October, as reported by Freddie Mac.

This has lifted the future sales expectation component in the HMI into positive territory for the first time since August. As home building expands in 2024, Dietz foresees growing challenges on the supply side, manifesting as higher prices and/or shortages of lumber, lots, and labor.

Builder Strategies Amidst Falling Rates

Despite mortgage rates falling below 7% in the past month, many builders are persisting with price adjustments to stimulate sales. In January, 31% of builders reported cutting home prices, reflecting a decline from the previous two months and the lowest rate since last August. The average price reduction in January remained at 6%, unchanged from the previous month. Concurrently, 62% of builders offered various sales incentives in January, maintaining a stable trend observed since October.

Insights from the HMI Indices

Derived from a monthly survey conducted by NAHB for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI assesses builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months. The indices charting current sales conditions, sales expectations, and traffic of prospective buyers all posted gains in January, indicating an optimistic outlook. The three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores also show positive trends across different regions.

Regional Variances in HMI Scores

Examining the three-month moving averages, the Northeast witnessed a four-point increase to 55, the South experienced a two-point rise to 41, the West registered a one-point gain to 32, and the Midwest held steady at 34. These variations showcase regional differences in builder sentiment, reflecting the diverse conditions across the country.

Overall, the surge in builder sentiment in January, fueled by falling interest rates, signals positive momentum in the housing market. However, challenges on the supply side, including material costs and availability, loom on the horizon. Builders' strategic responses to lower rates, such as price adjustments and sales incentives, indicate a dynamic market. As the year progresses, keeping a close eye on regional variances will be crucial in understanding the nuanced landscape of the housing market.

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Tagged With: Housing Market

Housing Market News 2024: Today’s Market Update

January 2, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market News 2024

The housing market is an ever-evolving and dynamic sector that affects the economy and the lives of people worldwide. As we move into 2024, the latest housing market news is of utmost importance to individuals and businesses alike. Whether you are a homebuyer, seller, investor, or simply interested in real estate trends, staying up-to-date with the latest developments can help you make informed decisions.

Latest Housing Market News in January 2024

The 2024 housing market is poised for changes, influenced by mortgage rates, market conditions, and regional dynamics.

Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect

  • The “mortgage rate lock-in effect” defined the 2023 housing market.
  • The pandemic-era sub-5% mortgage interest rates led to homeowners holding onto their homes.
  • Lower mortgage rates in late 2023 are indicating potential market improvements.

Existing-Home Sales and Prices

  • Mortgage rate drops boosted existing-home sales in November, breaking a five-month decline.
  • Housing shortages persist, but a slight uptick in single-family home construction is expected in 2024.
  • Home price growth varies across markets, with some areas experiencing double-digit increases.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

  • Experts predict 30-year mortgage rates to hover between 6.1% to 7% in the first quarter, gradually declining throughout the year.
  • Election year volatility may impact mortgage rates.
  • Affordability challenges persist, requiring substantial household incomes to buy homes.

New Home Construction

  • Anticipated gain in single-family housing construction starts in 2024 after declines in 2022 and 2023.
  • Multifamily construction expected to experience a significant decline.
  • Remodeling activity to remain flat in 2024, with aging housing stock requiring reinvestment.

2024 Market Projections

  • Market conditions are expected to improve, but housing shortages will persist.
  • Nationwide sales may see a modest uptick, with variations across different markets.
  • Median existing-home prices continue to rise, and a dramatic rise in supply is seen as necessary to dampen price appreciation.
  • Weary homebuyers may welcome a more stable and less volatile market.

Challenges Faced in 2023

  • Home sales dropped by about 17% from their peak in February to their low in October.
  • Home prices increased by 7%, reaching record highs, surprising many industry observers.
  • Mortgage rates reached nearly 8%, the highest level in 23 years, contributing to the least affordable housing market in a generation.
  • Existing-home sales dipped below 4 million units, creating a market with high competition and rising prices.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability

  • Mortgage rates have fallen for nine consecutive weeks and are expected to drop further in 2024, though likely not below 6%.
  • The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes impacted demand, contributing to the housing market's challenges.
  • Forecasts suggest mortgage rates averaging around 6.8% in 2024, providing some relief.

Improvements in Affordability

  • Average mortgage rates at 6.6% allow the average American family to afford the median-priced home without exceeding the 30% income threshold.
  • As rates come down, more homeowners may list their homes, increasing inventory and moderating prices.
  • Forecasts indicate a slight decrease in home values, with Zillow predicting a 0.2% fall, and Realtor.com forecasting a 1.7% decrease.

Expected Rise in Home Sales

  • NAR forecasts a 13.5% increase in existing home sales in 2024, reaching 4.71 million units.
  • Continued growth in new home construction is expected to boost inventory.
  • Predicted top-performing markets include Austin, Texas, and other metro markets in southern states.

Positive Signals in 2024

  • Inventory is slowly increasing, providing more options for buyers in the upcoming spring.
  • Sales rates are climbing, with more homes going into contract compared to the previous year.
  • Home prices are inching up, maintaining stability and avoiding uncontrollable rises seen during the pandemic.

Affordability Challenges Persist

  • Despite positive market trends, an intense affordability crisis continues to impact millions of potential homebuyers.
  • While cheaper mortgage rates may improve payment affordability, increased demand may drive competition, putting upward pressure on prices.
  • The current data suggests that the affordability crisis is unlikely to improve in 2024.

Inventory Growth and Market Dynamics

  • The year concluded with 513,000 single-family homes on the market, nearly 5% more than the end of 2022.
  • Sellers are gradually re-entering the market, contributing to a growing resale inventory.
  • The number of single-family homes in contract has crossed a growth threshold, showing a 2.4% increase compared to the previous year.

Price Reductions and Market Stability

  • Approximately 34.8% of homes on the market have undergone price cuts, within the “normal” range for the start of the year.
  • The percentage of homes with price reductions is expected to decrease in the coming months as fresh inventory enters the market.

Home Price Trends and Forecasts

  • The median price of single-family homes in the US is $415,000, reflecting a nearly 3% increase over the previous year.
  • 2024 is projected to continue with price stability, as leading indicators, including inventory growth and sales rates, remain positive.
  • Q1 home price trends will play a crucial role in shaping the overall trajectory of the housing market in 2024.

While the housing market shows signs of improvement, challenges such as affordability and the delicate balance between supply and demand continue to shape the landscape in 2024.

Stay tuned for more updates on the housing market as we continue to monitor the situation. If you're looking for real estate investment avenues in 2024, get in touch with us for expert advice and guidance.

Our team of professionals can help you navigate the changing market and find the right opportunities for your needs. Don't wait, contact us today to learn more!

Contact Us

Filed Under: Housing Market, Trending News Tagged With: Housing Market

Housing Market Shows Signs of Resilience Despite Headwinds

December 26, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Housing Market Shows Signs of Resilience Despite Headwinds

The US housing market has shown remarkable resilience in recent months, defying predictions of a downturn. In September, the U.S. CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index increased 3.9% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive month of annual gains following two months of declines. This trend is a testament to the underlying strength of the housing market, supported by factors such as a robust labor market, solid consumer confidence, and limited inventory.

However, the housing market is not without its challenges. Mortgage rates have surged in recent months, reaching their highest levels in over two decades. This has led to a decline in affordability, making it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market. Additionally, the ongoing supply chain disruptions have continued to push up the cost of building materials, putting upward pressure on home prices.

Looking Ahead

Experts expect the housing market to continue to moderate in 2024. Home price growth is forecast to slow to around 3%, down from the 5% pace seen in 2023. This deceleration is due to a combination of factors, including rising mortgage rates, slowing economic growth, and a gradual increase in housing supply.

The housing market is expected to remain resilient in 2024. The strong labor market and solid consumer confidence are likely to continue to support demand. Additionally, the limited inventory of homes available for sale is expected to help to prop up prices.

Additional Insights on US Housing Market Trends

  • Regional variations: While the national home price growth is slowing down, there are significant regional variations. The West Coast, including San Francisco and Seattle, continues to see strong price gains, while markets in the Midwest, like Detroit and Chicago, are experiencing a resurgence in demand.
  • Month-over-month trends: Some West Coast markets, particularly Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Phoenix, recorded the strongest month-over-month price gains in September.
  • Price growth expectations: Price trends are expected to continue to vary by region. For instance, Detroit and New York are projected to see robust price growth, while Seattle, Minneapolis, Portland, and Denver are anticipated to experience weaker growth.

Extended Analysis of US Housing Market Trends

  • Home sales: Home sales will remain flat in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year, despite rising mortgage rates. This suggests that the market is stabilizing after a period of decline.
  • Price growth: Home price growth is expected to slow down in 2024, averaging 3% compared to 3.8% in 2023. However, it is still projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Drivers of growth: The main drivers of home price growth are low inventory, particularly in the West; the migration of higher-income households; equity-rich baby boomers; and a strong U.S. job market.
  • Regional variations: There are significant regional variations in home price growth. Some of the metros that have seen the strongest growth in 2023 include Detroit, New York, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami, Tampa, and Charlotte. These are often markets that experienced home price declines in 2022 or lagged in appreciation during the pandemic. In contrast, Seattle, Minneapolis, Portland, and Denver have seen weaker price growth.
  • Price tiers: The high-price tier has seen a relatively stronger rebound in September, with a 2.8% annual increase. This may be due to migration trends, with higher-income households moving to areas that are relatively less expensive or have more temperate weather. The low-price tier also saw strong gains in September, with a 3.7% increase. This was led by gains in Miami, Chicago, and Boston.
  • Month-over-month trends: The month-over-month comparison of appreciation by price tier and location also reveals relative changes in demand across the country. In September, Las Vegas and Tampa led the gains in the high tier, while Miami, Chicago, and Boston led the gains in the low-price tier.

Overall, the US housing market is expected to remain stable in the near term, with continued home price growth but at a slower pace than in 2023. The main drivers of home price growth are low inventory, migration, demographics, and a strong job market. However, rising mortgage rates are likely to dampen demand and slow price growth in 2024.


Sources:

  • https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-corelogic-sampp-case-shiller-index-annual-growth-moves-higher-september/

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Housing Market

Home Prices Grow by 6.6% Despite High Mortgage Rates in 2023

November 29, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Home Prices Surge by 6.6% Despite High Mortgage Rates in 2023

Home Prices Surge by 6.6% Despite High Mortgage Rates in 2023

In a surprising turn of events, housing prices have experienced a remarkable surge of 6.6% since January, defying the odds posed by escalating mortgage rates. This upward trajectory, highlighted by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, reveals a robust 3.9% increase in September compared to the same month last year.

As prospective homebuyers grapple with the challenges of soaring mortgage rates, the real estate landscape continues to evolve. The 30-year fixed mortgage, a key indicator, has exhibited fluctuations, standing at 7.32% on Nov. 27, a stark contrast to the 6.65% recorded for the corresponding week last year. This unprecedented increase, doubling rates from two years ago, raises concerns about the sustainability of the current housing market dynamics.

Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, attributes the accelerated annual home price growth to pent-up demand, exacerbated by minimal housing inventories. However, she cautions that the persistent surge in mortgage rates may exert pressure on home prices, potentially tempering the rate of growth in the coming months.

2024 Housing Market Predictions: Modest Growth Amid Mortgage Rate Constraints

Industry experts foresee a modest rise in house prices in 2024, foreseeing a tug-of-war between the demand-supply equilibrium and the constraints imposed by high mortgage rates. The housing market, which transitioned from a seller's market in 2021 and early 2022 to a more balanced state, anticipates a continuation of sluggish house price appreciation in the upcoming year.

The confluence of soaring prices, limited inventory influenced by homeowners holding onto favorable mortgage rates secured in previous years, and the surge in mortgage rates has left many potential homebuyers on the sidelines.

Balancing Act: Tight Inventory, Rising Prices, and Future Affordability

Throughout the year, rising home prices have been propelled by tight inventory, maintaining competitiveness despite a dip in demand. Looking ahead to 2024, the anticipation of easing mortgage rates brings a glimmer of hope for prospective buyers, potentially alleviating the financial burden associated with home purchases.

According to Dr. Selma Hepp, “Despite the dramatic increase in the cost of homeownership, home prices have risen 6.6% so far this year — meaningfully beyond expectations given the rise in borrowing costs.”

As the housing supply gradually picks up, the prevailing tight inventory conditions are expected to maintain upward pressure on home prices. However, the prospect of falling mortgage rates hints at a more affordable future for those looking to step into the real estate market.

Filed Under: Housing Market Tagged With: Housing Market

Debt Ceiling & Housing Market: Will it Crash in 2023?

September 25, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Debt Ceiling & Housing Market: Will it Crash?

Debt Ceiling & Housing Market: Will it Crash?

On June 3, President Joe Biden signed a debt limit bill, averting a potential U.S. default. The debt limit, also known as the debt ceiling, is a crucial aspect of the country's fiscal management. In this blog post, we will explore what the debt ceiling is, why it is significant, and what occurred regarding the debt limit in 2023. Lastly, we will closely examine the potential consequences of the debt ceiling on the housing market, shedding light on the forecasts and insights provided by industry experts.

What is the Debt Ceiling?

The debt ceiling refers to the maximum amount of money that the United States government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. It is a statutory limit set by Congress, indicating the total debt the government can accumulate. Once the debt reaches its limit, Congress must take action to raise the ceiling and allow the government to borrow more funds.

Why is the Debt Ceiling Significant?

The debt ceiling plays a critical role in managing the nation's finances. It serves as a mechanism to control government spending and ensure fiscal responsibility. By setting a borrowing limit, the debt ceiling encourages policymakers to make informed decisions regarding spending, taxation, and budgetary priorities. Failure to raise the debt ceiling can lead to severe consequences, including a potential default on debt payments.

The 2023 Debt Limit Bill

In 2023, the United States faced the need to raise the debt ceiling to avoid defaulting on its financial obligations. President Joe Biden signed a debt limit bill on June 3, ensuring that the government could continue borrowing money to meet its obligations. This action was crucial in maintaining the stability of the U.S. economy and preserving confidence in the country's financial system.

Implications of a Default

If the debt ceiling is not raised and the United States defaults on its debt, it can have severe consequences both domestically and globally. A default would erode investor confidence, increase borrowing costs, and potentially trigger a financial crisis. It could lead to a downgrade in the country's credit rating, negatively impacting the economy, and causing ripple effects in the global financial markets.

Congress Passes Debt Ceiling Package: A Comprehensive Overview

The new legislation suspends the nation's $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 1, 2025. This removes it as a potential issue in the 2024 presidential election. After months of stalemate and tense negotiations, Congress has passed the debt ceiling package just in time to prevent a potential government shutdown.

The legislation suspends the nation's debt limit until January 1, 2025, removing it as a potential issue in the 2024 presidential election. Non-defense spending will remain relatively flat in fiscal 2024, with a 1% increase in fiscal 2025. There will be no budget caps after fiscal 2025, only non-enforceable appropriations targets.

The package includes provisions for defense and non-defense discretionary spending. Non-defense discretionary spending will be rolled back to fiscal 2022 levels, with a limit of 1% annual growth for the next six years. Veterans' medical care will be fully funded, with an additional increase in support for the PACT Act's toxic exposure fund. Changes to the food stamps program will temporarily broaden work requirements while expanding exemptions for certain groups. Work requirements will not be introduced in Medicaid.

In terms of Covid-19 relief funds, approximately $28 billion in unobligated funds will be rescinded, but funding for Covid-19 vaccines, treatments, housing assistance, and the Indian Health Service will be retained. IRS funding will be repurposed, with $10 billion from fiscal 2024 and another $10 billion from fiscal 2025 appropriations allocated for non-defense areas.

Regarding student loans, borrowers will need to resume payments at the end of the summer as the pause on payments during the pandemic will not be extended. However, President Biden's plan to provide up to $20,000 in debt relief for qualifying borrowers will be maintained, along with the income-driven repayment plan.

The debt ceiling package does not make changes to climate and clean energy provisions, despite efforts by House Republicans to repeal clean energy tax credits and subsidies. It includes measures in the National Environmental Policy Act to enhance coordination and efficiency in federal agency decision-making. Additionally, the package expedites the construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline in West Virginia.

Debt Ceiling & The Housing Market: Will it Crash?

The debate surrounding the debt ceiling and the potential for a government default on the national debt has raised concerns about its impact on various sectors of the economy. In this section, we will focus on the insights provided by Zillow regarding the potential fallout on the housing market in the event of a debt default. We will explore the projected effects on home sales, values, mortgage rates, and the overall economic landscape.

Zillow's Forecast: Severe Fallout in the Housing Market

According to forecasts by Zillow, a debt default could have significant implications for the housing market. In the most severe month following a debt default, home sales could drop by up to 23% compared to a no-default baseline forecast. Additionally, home values could be 5% lower than projected in a no-default scenario by the end of 2024. These projections highlight the potential negative impact on both buyers and sellers in the housing market.

Agreement to Raise the Debt Ceiling

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling, averting an immediate default. However, the agreement still needs to be voted on by Congress. The ongoing negotiations and uncertainty surrounding the debt ceiling underscore the importance of addressing this issue to avoid potential economic turmoil.

Rising Mortgage Rates in the Event of a Default

Zillow warns that if the government were to default, the average 30-year mortgage rate could peak at 8.4% in September. Such rates would mark the highest since the early 2000s. Rising debt yields and interest rates are expected as a consequence of default risk, leading to increased borrowing costs for homebuyers. This scenario could further dampen the housing market's recovery and stability.

Recession Risks and Unemployment Concerns

Experts suggest that a government default could trigger a recession, causing a significant decline in GDP and disrupting financial markets worldwide. Zillow emphasizes that spending cuts resulting from default could lead to furloughs among federal and state employees, as well as layoffs in industries indirectly connected to federal spending. These factors could contribute to rising unemployment rates and further economic instability.

In summary, Zillow's insights indicate that a debt ceiling default would have severe repercussions for the housing market, including decreased home sales, lower property values, and increased mortgage rates. The potential recessionary impact and rising unemployment rates are additional concerns. The agreement to raise the debt ceiling is a positive development, but it remains essential for policymakers to address long-term fiscal challenges and ensure the stability of the economy and housing market moving forward.


Sources:

  • https://www.zillow.com/research/debt-ceiling-32626/
  • https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limit

Filed Under: Economy, Financing, Housing Market, Real Estate, Real Estate Market Tagged With: Debt Ceiling, Debt Ceiling Housing Market, Does the Debt Ceiling Affect Housing Market, Housing Market

Housing Market: Should You Buy a Turnkey Property or Fixer-Upper?

September 24, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Should You Buy a Turnkey Property

The current housing market means you’ll likely pay top dollar for a home that’s considered turnkey — immediately ready for you to move in. Plus, the competition is steep. Perhaps those two reasons are why 52% of American homebuyers are looking for a starter home or a fixer-upper rather than a forever home, according to TD Bank‘s First-Time Homebuyer Pulse, which polled buyers planning to purchase in 2022. If you’re struggling with whether to keep combing the housing market for a move-in-ready home that fits your budget or to take your chances with a fixer-upper, here’s the expert insight you need.

Pros of Buying a Fixer-Upper

Buying a fixer-upper can provide you with advantages that a turnkey home doesn’t offer. Consider the following.

Cheaper Taxes

“Fixer-uppers can be a great way to get a deal on a property and save money on taxes,” said Jeremy Luebke, founder of WeLoveLand. “In many cases, fixer-uppers are sold for less than the market value because the seller is motivated to move the property quickly. This can be a great opportunity for bargain hunters. Additionally, fixer-uppers often come with significant tax breaks. The government offers tax breaks for people who rehabilitate or redevelop properties, so if you’re planning to do major work on your fixer-upper, you may be eligible for some significant tax deductions.”

Flip Potential

“The big advantage to taking the risk on a fixer-upper is the equity you build while improving the value of the property,” said Doug Greene, owner of Signature Properties. “This is the flip potential that exists, while in a turnkey home you are essentially buying the property at full price (i.e., market value).”

Potential for Creativity

“An advantage of purchasing a fixer-upper is the opportunity to put money into the features of your house that are most important to you,” said John Riedl of Easy Cash Offer Florida. “Do you want a modern kitchen? What about a luxurious soaking tub? If you are purchasing a property that is move-in ready, you can find yourself subject to the taste and interests of the past owner.”

Riedl also pointed out that fixer-uppers give you a lot of control over the renovation process by selecting paint colors, floor materials, contractors, and anything else you desire.

Cons of Buying a Fixer-Upper

Time, money and effort are all required when it comes to getting a fixer-upper where you want it to be. Here’s more on the potential disadvantages of going this route.

Renovation Costs

“The cost of labor and materials is near its highest price ever, and if you are hiring contractors to perform work on your home, unless you have a crew on standby, it could be months before the work is done,” said Tony Grech real estate investor and lending expert with Luxury Mortgage. “Just like there is a shortage of home inventory that has driven prices up, there is a shortage of qualified tradespeople as well as a shortage in raw materials due to supply chain issues that stretch back to the beginning of COVID. So you save $20,000 or $30,000 on the price of the home, but it costs you $60,000 to perform the work that you want.”

Effort

Beyond the costs in labor and materials, renovating a home comes with some other headaches and risks,” said Brian Davis, real estate investor and founder at Spark Rental. “You have to navigate the treacherous waters of permits, which involves not just filing fees and dealing with the permit office, but also hassling with inspectors.”

Ryan Fitzgerald, owner of UpHomes also said that renovating a fixer-upper requires a lot of effort. “Renovations are time-consuming and stressful so make sure you’re up for the challenge if you decide to get a fixer-upper,” he cautioned. “If you don’t want to deal with the construction, managing contractors, and living in a home that isn’t finished, a fixer-upper may not be the best choice for you.”

Live Richer Podcast: First-Time Homebuying During Inflation: Is It Worth It?

Pros of Buying a Turnkey Home

While a home that’s ready to move in will likely cost much more than a fixer-upper, there are some definite advantages that are worth considering.

No Renovation Costs

“When you purchase a turnkey home, the price you see is the price you pay,” said Luebke. “There are no additional costs for things like landscape or certain home upgrades. This can be a big advantage when budgeting for your new home. You know exactly how much money you need to bring to the table, and there are no unpleasant surprises down the road.”

Minimal Effort Required

If you’re looking to move in and start enjoying your new home as soon as possible, turnkey home is a perfect choice. “Turnkey homes require much lower effort because you can move right in and start enjoying the home after you unpack,” said Ryan Fitzgerald, owner of UpHomes.

Cons of Buying a Turnkey Home

However, buying a turnkey home also comes with a few drawbacks. It’s up to you to decide if they are worth it.

More Expensive Taxes Upfront

While you can get a lower property tax rate by buying a cheaper fixer-upper, that’s likely not the case with a turnkey home.

“If you opt for a turnkey home, the municipality will have likely already caught up to the new assessed value by the time you move in,” said Greene. “It’s usually the sale of the property that triggers a property reassessment in the system.”

Flip Potential Is Nonexistent

“Buying turnkey is certainly the way to go if you have no desire to make repairs to a home and want it move-in ready,” said Jeff Shipwash, CEO of Shipwash Properties LLC. “Unfortunately, in today’s market, turnkey properties are at a premium. This means you will more than likely have strong competition and will be paying top dollar for it. This results in buying with little to no equity to spare.”

And without any equity to spare, there is no flip potential.

Limited Opportunities for Creativity or Customization

“The home might not be exactly what you want,” said Luebke. “Since the home has already been built, you may be limited in terms of customizations or changes that you can make. The home might come equipped with most, if not all, of the features and amenities that you desire, but there is always the chance that something will not be quite to your liking. This can be frustrating if you have specific ideas about how you want your new home to look and function.”

>>This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com.<<

Filed Under: General Real Estate, Getting Started, Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing, Turnkey Investment Property, turnkey property

Investors Are Buying a Record Share of Homes

May 10, 2023 by Marco Santarelli

Investor Share of Home Sales 2022

Real estate is getting increasingly popular among investor groups. Investors bought more properties last year since home prices grew quickly and there were fewer homes for sale. They are eyeing growing prices because rental payments are also soaring, which encourages investors who want to rent out the houses they purchase. Many individuals who cannot locate a home to purchase are compelled to rent as a result of the housing supply constraint. In addition, investors who “flip” properties stand to make a substantial return as housing values increase.”

In the fourth quarter of the previous year, real estate investors acquired 18.4% of U.S. houses, according to Redfin. It was 12.6% a year ago and 17.4% in the third quarter. Although investor market share touched a record in the fourth quarter, the number of properties acquired by investors fell 9.1% from the third-quarter peak. In the fourth quarter, investors acquired 80,293 properties, up 43.9% year-over-year. Third-quarter investor house acquisitions were 75.3% cash. So, how are investors performing this year? Here's the summary of the latest Realtor.com® Investor Report for 2022.

Note: In their research, Realtor.com® analyzed deed data from January 2000 to April 2022 in 263 metro regions with more than 100 investor transactions in the year ending April 2022. They only considered single-family residences, condominiums, townhomes, and rowhomes, excluding multi-family buildings. They try to capture buy-and-hold investor purchases, excluding flippers. Some flipping activity is likely included as it is not always clear up-front whether an investor purchase is intended for a flip or buy-and-hold.

Investors Bought a Record-High Share of Houses in Spring of Last Year

Investor buyer trends 2022
Source: Realtor.com®

Realtor.com® defines an investor as a buyer or seller that was/is an absentee owner and that has a name that includes the following: LLP, LP, LLC, GP, or TRUST. According to their spring 2022 report, the investor proportion of house sales has declined significantly from its all-time peak in February 2022 but is about double its 2014/2015 level. After dropping in the early months of the pandemic, investors' proportion of house purchases has increased over the past two years, exceeding non-investors' growth and reaching a new high of 9.7 percent in February 2022.

Nonetheless, investor purchases have declined substantially in tandem with non-investor purchases since February 2022, bringing their entire buy percentage to 9.5%. However, the current proportion of investment purchasers is approximately double the proportion at the same stage in 2014/2015. In April, investors bought 9.5% of properties sold, up 2.8% from the same period last year but down from February's 9.7% peak.

After months of surpassing non-investor purchasers, investor behavior has paralleled non-investor behavior since February. 2021 investor house purchases surged 64% over 2020 when the COVID-19 outbreak hurt investor activity. 2021 purchasing was up 39% from 2019 before the epidemic. While investor purchases were down in January and February, they were up 31% in April and 64% over the same period in 2019, while total sales were down 8% and up just 7%.

Investors' percentage in house purchases is near record highs. In April, investors bought 9.5% of properties, down from 9.7% in February but up by 2.8% year-over-year. This high percentage is driven by both investor purchases and non-investor purchasers, who bought 11% fewer properties in April than a year earlier. The investor proportion of house purchases is almost double what it was in April 2015 (4.8%), but its growth pace has slowed compared to February after 19 straight months of increase.

Their data shows investor purchases under a corporate name. Cash purchases are overrepresented in the statistics because small investor activity under individual names isn't included. Pre-pandemic standards for investors buying properties with cash have changed. In September 2021, 78 percent of investors bought with cash, comparable to 2009 to 2015.

Larger investors with greater equity may have increased demand. Another is greater iBuying activity during this time. Since September, investors' cash purchases have fallen while mortgage purchases have risen. With borrowing rates so high, this pattern may alter in the coming months.

Larger Investors Grew Their Share of Purchases in 2021 to 35%

Despite the fact that smaller investors continue to acquire the highest proportion of properties among the group of investors we've found, bigger investors have overtaken smaller investors in terms of activity increase over the past year. Smaller investors, defined as those who have acquired 10 or fewer properties since their data collection began in 2001, accounted for 64 percent of investor-purchased homes in July 2020, just after the commencement of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Nevertheless, as housing demand surged and rents climbed over the last year, bigger investors, defined as those who have acquired more than 50 properties since 2001, raised their proportion of investment purchases from 18 percent in July 2020 to 42 percent in August 2021. Since August, demand from bigger investors has decreased to 32 percent in April, but their sales share has stabilized above historical norms, grabbing market share from both small and medium-sized investors.

Large home investor sale increase is attributable to Opendoor, Offerpad, and Zillow iBuyer activity (prior to their exit from iBuying). iBuyer's significant investor stake was 30% in 2021. In 2022's first four months, it was 22%. Large investor purchases fell from 32% to 27% in April when iBuyer data was removed. Among non-iBuyer big investors, demand peaked in August and has subsequently decelerated.

While investors are buying a record number of properties, the margin between their buying and selling has shrunk since August. August 2021 saw investors buying 14,000 more properties than selling. By 2022, the margin was 2,300 dwellings. While investor purchasing surpassed selling in March and April, investor selling is up 24 percent from April 2018 and 28 percent from April 2019.

real estate investor contribution 2022
Source: Realtor.com®

Charlotte Saw Greatest Growth in Investor Interest

Southern metros saw the most investment activity last year, followed by the West. Larger investors raised their purchases more than medium or smaller investors in the South and West. Investors bought 20% of Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia properties in the year ending April 2022. Branson, MO (19.5%), Birmingham-Hoover, AL (18.9%), Summit Park, UT (18.6%), and Memphis, TN (18.5%) had the highest investment activity.

Three of the top five metros where investors bought the most homes were in the South, which experienced the most investor interest and the most increase over the last year. In eight of the top 10 metros, investors paid less than the median price in April 2022. Summit Park, UT, and Branson, MO were outliers. In these eight metros, investors bought properties for 16% less. The median investor purchase price was $295,000 in April, 15% less than the median selling price overall and 10% less than the median investor house sold. In all 10 areas, investors bought more houses than they sold in April, vying with purchasers for limited inventory.

Metro Average Investor Purchase Shares and Change in Shares

Region Average of 12 Months End April 2021 Average of 12 Months End April 2022 Average of yy percentage point change
Midwest 5.9% 7.6% 1.7%
Northeast 4.3% 5.7% 1.4%
South 6.6% 9.5% 3.0%
West 4.6% 6.8% 2.1%
Overall Average 5.7% 8.1% 2.3%

Not all major investor markets showed increased interest in the last year. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC (+0.7%), Jacksonville, FL (+10.2%), and Birmingham-Hoover, AL (+8.8%) witnessed the most investor market share growth. Eight of the top 10 metros with the biggest growth in investor purchases over the past year are very cheap South metros with median list prices as or more reasonable than the typical home nationally.

The average April 2022 listing price in the top 10 metros where investors are rising was $372,000, compared to $450,000 nationally. Investors bought cheaper properties in all 10 markets. They bought properties 13 percent lower than April's median price. Except for Danville, VA, investors acquired more properties in April than they sold.


Source: https://www.realtor.com/research/investor-report-april-2022/

Filed Under: Housing Market, Real Estate Investing Tagged With: Housing Market, Investor Home Sales, Real Estate Investing, real estate investors

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