Will Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% This Month: September 2025 Forecast

Here’s the headline you’ve been waiting for: It looks like 30-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering on the edge, with a real shot at dipping below 6% before September 2025 is out. As of September 13, 2025, we’re seeing rates around 6.1% to 6.3%, a slight easing from earlier in the month, and the winds of change are blowing. The Federal Reserve's recent signals about potential rate cuts are definitely making lenders adjust their numbers, but it’s not a done deal just yet. The housing market is always a bit of a puzzle, and mortgage rates are a big piece of that puzzle.

Will Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6% This Month: September 2025 Forecast

For many of us, that 6% mark isn't just a number; it's a gateway. It can mean the difference between affording that perfect starter home or having to keep renting, between finally making that move or waiting even longer. I’ve spent a lot of time digging into the economic reports, talking to folks who make their living in finance, and looking at how things have played out in the past, and I feel pretty good about where we’re headed. But, as always, there are some twists and turns to keep an eye on.

The Current Rate Situation: Closer Than You Think

Right now, if you're looking at a 30-year mortgage, you're likely seeing rates in that 6.1% to 6.3% range. This is according to the latest weekly survey from Freddie Mac, a highly respected source for this kind of information. It’s a little lower than what we saw at the beginning of September, which is encouraging, but still not quite under 6%. It’s a bit like watching a runner approach the finish line – they’re close, but we need that final push.

It’s not just the big 30-year loans that are inching down. If you’re considering a 15-year fixed mortgage, rates are even better, around 5.45%. And for those looking at adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), like a 5/1 ARM, the starting rates are about 5.75%. These numbers are a snapshot of a market that’s trying to balance two big forces: inflation that’s starting to cool down and an economy that’s still pretty strong.

The 10-year Treasury yield is a big signal for mortgage rates, and right now it’s sitting around 3.82%. That’s down from where it was just last month, but not low enough to push mortgages firmly below 6%. Think of it this way: the 10-year Treasury is like the engine for mortgage rates, and while it’s idling nicely, it’s not quite revving at the speed we need to break that 6% barrier.

I’ve put together a little table to show you how things have been moving over the last month. It really highlights the slow but steady progress:

Date Range	30-Year Fixed Rate	15-Year Fixed Rate	10-Year Treasury Yield
Aug 15-31, 2025	6.35%	5.65%	4.05%
Sep 1-7, 2025	6.25%	5.55%	3.95%
Sep 8-13, 2025	6.15%	5.45%	3.82%

Source: Based on figures from Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

You can see the trend – rates are gently moving down. But it's good to remember that these numbers can change quite a bit day-to-day, often depending on the latest economic news.

What’s Pushing Rates Down (and What Could Stop Them)

So, what’s really making these rates tick down, and what might throw a wrench in the works? It’s all about a few key players in the economy.

1. The Federal Reserve is Key

The biggest event on the horizon is the Federal Reserve’s meeting, happening on September 17-18. This is where they decide what to do with the federal funds rate, which influences all other interest rates. They’ve kept it steady at 5.25-5.50% for a while now. But, there's a good chance they’ll announce a quarter-point (25 basis points) cut. If that happens, it could easily shave off 0.10% to 0.20% from mortgage rates pretty quickly.

However, if the upcoming economic reports show that inflation is hotter than we expect, or if wages are climbing too fast, the Fed might decide to hold off on cutting rates. That would likely keep mortgage rates stuck above 6%. Some smart people at Fannie Mae think we could see rates hitting 5.9% by the end of the year, which would mean dipping below 6% this month is definitely on the table if the Fed acts. But others, like those at the MBA, warn that if inflation in the service sector stays stubborn, we might have to wait until the last few months of the year for that sub-6% rate.

2. Inflation and Jobs: A Balancing Act

Good news on the inflation front: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.5% in August. That’s getting closer to the Fed’s goal of 2%, and it’s a big reason why people are hopeful for rate cuts. Lower inflation generally means less pressure on long-term investments, which helps keep mortgage rates down.

But then you look at the job market. The August jobs report showed that the economy added 142,000 new jobs, which was more than economists had predicted. And the unemployment rate stayed put at 4.2%. A strong job market is a sign that the economy is doing well, which can sometimes lead to higher interest rates. It’s a bit of a tug-of-war.

We also can't forget about what's happening in the world beyond our borders. Things like ongoing conflicts in the Middle East or trade tensions can affect oil prices, which in turn can impact inflation. If oil prices jump, that could push inflation up again, and that might make the Fed think twice about cutting rates or could even cause rates to go back up.

3. Housing Supply and Buyer Demand

Here’s another piece of the puzzle: the number of homes for sale. It’s gone up about 15% compared to last year, meaning there are more options out there for buyers. This usually helps to keep home prices from soaring, but it hasn't been quite enough to make lenders drastically lower mortgage rates.

Affordability is still a big hurdle. With rates around 6.15%, the monthly payment for a $400,000 loan is about $2,440 (just for the loan principal and interest). That’s a good chunk more than it was a few years ago. Because of this, a lot of people who locked in rates below 4% are happy where they are and aren’t selling their homes. This lack of existing homeowners moving can actually keep the overall supply of homes from growing as much as it could, which indirectly supports higher rates.

And it's worth mentioning that what happens in global bond markets can have an effect too. When investors around the world are buying up U.S. government bonds, it can help keep interest rates here more stable.

Looking Back to See Forward: What History Teaches Us

To get a better idea of whether rates will fall below 6% this September, it helps to look at how they’ve behaved in the past. Mortgage rates hit their peak late last year, around 7.8%, after the Fed started raising rates to fight inflation. Since then, they’ve come down by about 1.65%. We did briefly see rates dip below 6% in early 2023, but they didn't stay there for long.

Imagine a graph of 30-year mortgage rates from 2020 to today. You’d see a sharp drop in 2020 when the pandemic hit and stimulus money was flowing, bringing rates down to incredibly low levels (around 2.65%). Then, as inflation became a problem, rates started climbing, jumping significantly in early 2022 when the Fed began its hiking cycle. Since then, we’ve seen them fluctuate, with some dips but generally staying above 6%.

Here’s a simple look at how annual average rates have changed and why:

Year	Average 30-Year Rate	Key Event	Impact on Housing Starts
2020	3.11%	Pandemic stimulus	Increased (Housing Boom)
2022	5.34%	Inflation surge, Fed hikes begin	Decreased (Market Slowdown)
2023	6.81%	Peak Fed rate hikes	Further Decrease (Weak Market)
2024	6.45%	Hints of Fed rate cuts	Stabilized
2025 (YTD)	6.25%	Gradual rate easing	Modest Increase

Source: Data compiled from Freddie Mac.

History tells us that these big drops often happen when the Fed makes a move, and it might take a few of those moves for rates to consistently stay below 6%. So, patience is definitely a virtue here.

What the Experts Are Saying: A Cloudy but Hopeful Forecast

When you poll economists, most are leaning towards a positive outlook, but there’s still some disagreement. Some, like Wells Fargo, are predicting we’ll see rates dip to 5.95% by the end of September, especially if the Fed cuts rates. Others, like JPMorgan, are a bit more cautious, keeping their forecast around 6.10% because they see wages rising steadily.

If you average the predictions from about 20 different economists, they’re generally expecting mortgage rates to be around 6.05% by the end of September. This means it’s really a coin-toss whether we break that 6% mark.

Here’s how you could break it down into different possibilities:

• Things Go Well (70% Chance): The Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, and inflation continues to cool down to about 2.3%. In this scenario, we could see rates drop as low as 5.85%.
• Things Stay About the Same (20% Chance): The Fed holds off on cutting rates, and the economy remains steady—rates might just stay put around 6.10%.
• Things Get Worse (10% Chance): The jobs report is stronger than expected, or inflation ticks back up. This could push rates higher, maybe to 6.35%.

For those considering ARMs right now, they offer a way to get a lower initial rate (about 0.4% less than fixed rates), but remember that those rates can change after the initial period.

What This Means for You: Buyers, Sellers, and Beyond

If mortgage rates do drop below 6%, it’s not just good news for some people – it can have a ripple effect.

• Homebuyers: If rates fall, expect more people to start looking for homes. The MBA predicts a 5-7% jump in mortgage applications. Be ready for more competition! Also, remember to budget for closing costs, which can be 2-5% of the loan amount. Using tools that help you calculate affordability can show you exactly how much a small drop in rates can save you each month – even a 0.15% decrease on a $300,000 loan could save you around $30 a month.
• Home Sellers: With more buyers potentially entering the market, you might have an advantage. Pricing your home just a little below comparable properties could help you attract those buyers who are really sensitive to mortgage rates.
• Those Looking to Refinance: If your current mortgage rate is higher than what’s available, a drop below 6% could make refinancing a smart move. It could save many homeowners a significant amount of money each month. Freddie Mac suggests that if rates drop by half a percent, a lot more people would become eligible to refinance.
• Investors: People looking to invest in real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are tied to housing might see better returns if rates ease.

On a bigger scale, when mortgage rates drop, it tends to help people who have larger mortgages more than those with smaller ones. This can sometimes widen the gap between higher and lower-income households. Policymakers are looking at ways to help more people benefit, like offering more money for down payments.

The Bottom Line: A Real Chance for a Break

So, back to the big question: will mortgage rates drop below 6% in September 2025? My take, after looking at all the data and listening to the experts, is that it's definitely possible and perhaps even likely. The momentum is leaning towards lower rates, especially if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates. It’s not a guaranteed outcome, but the conditions are looking favorable.

The best advice I can give you is to stay informed. Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve’s announcements and the latest economic reports. If you’re thinking about buying a home or refinancing, be ready to act if the rates dip into that desirable sub-6% range. In these times of economic change, being prepared and flexible is your strongest asset. The door to homeownership is opening wider, and staying informed will help you walk through it.