Fremont Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2024-2025

Fremont stands out as a competitive housing market within California, attracting interest due to its booming tech industry and strong economy. This translates to a high influx of aspiring residents seeking a slice of the Fremont dream. However, diving into this market requires an understanding of current trends.

Fremont is known for its steeper price tags compared to other California cities, so be prepared for a substantial investment. Let's delve into the specific trends shaping the Fremont housing landscape to give you a better understanding of the current market.

Fremont Housing Market Trends in 2024: A Deep Dive

The Fremont housing market in 2024 presents a nuanced picture, with home prices experiencing a slight dip compared to the previous year, but still remaining high. While the market isn't as intensely competitive as it was, it still leans toward a seller's market, indicating strong demand.

Home Sales

Looking at the numbers from September 2024, we see a slight decrease in home sales compared to the same period in 2023. According to Redfin, there were 121 homes sold in September 2024, which represents a -6.9% year-over-year decline from 130 homes sold last year.

This decline in sales isn't entirely surprising, given the broader economic climate and increasing interest rates. It's a natural consequence of affordability becoming a challenge for some buyers. However, it's important to note that this is a relatively small decrease, and the number of sales remains within a healthy range for Fremont. This suggests that the market is still active and continues to attract buyers despite the changes in the larger economic picture.

Home Prices

The median sale price of a home in Fremont in September 2024 was $1.488,950. This represents a slight decrease of -0.74% year-over-year. While prices are down compared to last year, it's crucial to recognize that the overall price point remains remarkably high, reflecting the premium that buyers place on Fremont's desirable location, excellent schools, and strong community.

One key factor influencing the slight dip in home prices is the increased inventory in the market. Although there's still a healthy demand for homes in Fremont, the larger pool of properties on the market allows buyers to have more choices and possibly negotiate better deals. This is a significant shift compared to previous years when the market was fiercely competitive with limited inventory.

In addition to the median sale price, it's also helpful to look at the median sale price per square foot, which was $1.02K in September 2024. This represents an increase of 13.7% since last year, indicating that the value of real estate in Fremont is still on the rise, even though the overall median price has slightly softened.

Housing Supply

The increased housing supply is one of the most notable changes in the Fremont housing market compared to the recent past. While it's still a relatively competitive market, the supply is starting to see a modest increase. This translates into a slightly longer average time for homes to sell. Homes in Fremont sold in an average of 14 days in September 2024, compared to 10 days in the same period last year. This represents an increase of 4 days and signifies a shift towards a more balanced market where buyers have a little more breathing room to make decisions and potentially negotiate.

Market Trends

The Fremont housing market trends reveal a fascinating dynamic. While we've seen a slight dip in prices and a lengthening of the time it takes for homes to sell, it's crucial to keep in mind that these shifts are happening from a position of strength. Prices are still high, and demand remains robust. The market is simply moving towards a more sustainable and balanced state, after experiencing an extraordinarily competitive period.

Other significant trends worth highlighting include:

• Sale-to-List Price: The average home in Fremont sold for 103.4% of its listing price in September 2024, a decrease of 2.0% year-over-year. This indicates that while buyers still face a competitive market, the bidding wars that were prevalent during the height of the market are less common today.
• Homes Sold Above List Price: Despite the slight softening, a significant portion of homes still sell above the listing price. In September 2024, 69.4% of homes sold for more than their list price, a decrease of 3.7% year-over-year.
• Homes with Price Drops: The percentage of homes that have experienced price reductions is on the rise. 21.6% of homes had a price drop in September 2024, an increase of 3.9% year-over-year. This further emphasizes the shift toward a more balanced market where sellers need to be more strategic about their pricing.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

While the Fremont housing market is no longer as fiercely competitive as it was in previous years, it still leans towards a seller's market. However, the increased inventory and the slightly longer days on the market give buyers more leverage than they had a year ago. This is a significant shift compared to when the market was almost exclusively in favor of sellers.

Here's how I'd summarize the situation:

• Sellers still enjoy a favorable position, but they need to be more realistic with their pricing and be prepared for a slightly longer sales cycle.
• Buyers have more choices and can potentially negotiate better deals. They may not need to engage in aggressive bidding wars as often, but the Fremont market remains competitive, requiring buyers to be prepared to act quickly on homes that meet their needs.

Essentially, the market is transitioning from an extremely competitive seller's market to a more balanced state where buyers have a bit more influence.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

The short answer is that yes, home prices in Fremont have experienced a slight drop in 2024 compared to 2023. However, it's crucial to emphasize that this is a relatively small decrease and doesn't indicate a market crash or a dramatic shift.

Instead, I see this as a natural correction after an extended period of rapid price increases. The market is finding a new equilibrium point where prices are stabilizing, but still remain relatively high.

Here are some of my thoughts on the price situation:

• The slight decrease in prices is a healthy adjustment to the market, bringing it closer to a sustainable level.
• The demand for housing in Fremont remains strong, preventing a major price drop.
• I believe that home prices in Fremont will continue to remain relatively stable in the near future, possibly experiencing slight fluctuations, but no major declines.
• The current situation represents a good opportunity for buyers who are seeking a more balanced market, but who don't want to compromise on the quality of life and excellent schools that Fremont offers.

Migration & Relocation Trends

Fremont continues to attract people from various parts of the country, and understanding these migration patterns provides further context for the Fremont housing market.

In August to October 2024, 77% of Fremont homebuyers searched to stay within the Fremont metropolitan area, signifying strong local demand and a desire to remain within the community. This emphasizes that Fremont residents value the lifestyle and amenities the city offers.

Looking at inbound migration, Honolulu, HI, was the top source of buyers for homes in Fremont, followed by Santa Barbara, CA and Pensacola, FL. This suggests that people are attracted to Fremont's strong economy, job market, and overall quality of life.

On the other hand, Sacramento, CA was the most popular destination for those leaving Fremont, followed by Los Angeles, CA and San Diego, CA. While the reasons for moving out of Fremont vary, these destinations likely offer more affordable housing options or unique opportunities.

I believe these migration patterns confirm that Fremont remains a desirable place to live and work, but affordability concerns are prompting some residents to explore alternatives.

Climate's Impact on Fremont Housing

As with any region, climate factors can influence housing prices and decisions. Fremont is moderately susceptible to wildfires and heat but experiences minimal wind risk. Flooding is also a minor concern for a small percentage of properties.

Table 2: Climate Risk Factors in Fremont

Risk Factor	% of Properties at Risk
Flood	14%
Fire	47%
Wind	Minimal
Heat	80%

These factors should be considered when evaluating properties and understanding potential risks in the Fremont housing market.

In Conclusion

The Fremont housing market in 2024 reflects a transition from an exceptionally competitive seller's market to a more balanced environment. While home prices have experienced a modest dip, they remain high, and demand for housing continues to be strong.

Increased housing inventory has given buyers slightly more leverage in negotiations and extended the average time it takes for homes to sell. However, the market is still competitive, and buyers need to be prepared to act quickly on homes that meet their criteria.

Fremont Housing Market Forecast: What Can We Expect?

Well, from what I see in the data, the Fremont housing market is experiencing a slight slowdown, but it's not a crash. While the median home price in Fremont was $1.5M last month, it's down 0.74% year-over-year. This suggests that a price drop isn't necessarily imminent, but rather a natural adjustment. I think it's fair to say there's a chance of prices stabilizing or even seeing a modest decline in the next few years.

Possible Forecast for 2025 & 2026

Based on my understanding of the current data, I would anticipate the Fremont housing market to remain relatively stable in 2025 and 2026. It’s unlikely to see a major crash, but we might experience a slow and steady decline in prices, potentially at a rate similar to the current year-over-year change. This may be due to a combination of factors, including rising interest rates and a potential economic slowdown. However, as Fremont is still a desirable location due to its great schools and proximity to Silicon Valley, a sustained drop in prices may be unlikely.

I believe the market will likely experience a softer period as the market adjusts to a more balanced state. While the market is cooling down, I don't expect a crash, and it could still be a good time for buyers to make a move in Fremont with a bit more negotiating power.

Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion based on available data. As an individual and not a professional real estate advisor, my views may not reflect every aspect of the market or the future. It's important to consider several factors and consult with a qualified expert for personalized advice.

Why Are Homes Expensive in Fremont, CA?

Fremont, California, is known for its desirable location in the Bay Area, offering proximity to major tech hubs and a high quality of life. Several factors contribute to the expensive real estate market in Fremont.

1. Location and Proximity to Job Centers

The city's close proximity to major technology and business hubs such as Silicon Valley and San Francisco makes it an attractive location for professionals working in the tech industry. The demand for housing from high-income earners in these sectors drives up prices.

2. Strong Job Market

Fremont benefits from a strong job market with a concentration of well-paying jobs in the technology and manufacturing sectors. This economic stability contributes to a higher demand for housing, impacting prices.

3. Limited Housing Supply

The availability of land for new construction is limited in Fremont due to geographical constraints and land-use policies. This scarcity of land contributes to a shortage of housing units, leading to increased competition among buyers and driving up prices.

4. Desirable Community Amenities

Fremont boasts a range of community amenities such as parks, schools, and cultural attractions, making it an attractive place to live. The high demand for homes in a desirable community further intensifies the competition among buyers, pushing prices higher.

5. Strict Zoning Regulations

Zoning regulations in Fremont can be stringent, limiting the ability to build high-density housing. This contributes to the scarcity of available housing and puts upward pressure on prices.

6. Commuter-Friendly Location

Fremont's accessibility and commuter-friendly location make it an appealing choice for those working in nearby cities. The high demand from commuters contributes to the competitive housing market and elevated prices.

Understanding these factors helps shed light on why homes in Fremont, CA, come with a higher price tag. The combination of a strong job market, limited housing supply, and desirable location creates a real estate landscape where demand consistently outpaces supply.