Fresno Housing Market Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

Are you thinking about buying or selling a home in Fresno? Understanding the current Fresno housing market trends is crucial for making informed decisions. As of January 2025, the Fresno housing market is competitive, with median home prices around $390,000, up 6.6% from last year. Homes are selling quickly, typically in about 32 days. Let's dive into a more detailed look at what's happening in the Fresno real estate market.

Current Fresno Housing Market Trends: What You Need to Know

Home Sales

The number of homes sold in Fresno has seen a slight dip. According to Redfin, in January 2025, 208 homes were sold, compared to 216 in the same period last year. This represents a 3.7% decrease year-over-year. While this isn't a dramatic decline, it's important to keep an eye on this trend to see if it persists in the coming months. This could be due to factors like seasonal slowdowns or hesitation from both buyers and sellers given the current economic climate.

Home Prices

Here's the key takeaway for anyone considering a move: home prices in Fresno are on the rise. The median sale price in January 2025 reached $390,000, marking a 6.6% increase compared to January 2024. This upward trend suggests that demand for homes in Fresno remains strong.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While there are always fluctuations, the data suggests that home prices aren't dropping in Fresno. In fact, they're going up. However, it's essential to remember that the real estate market can change quickly. It's smart to monitor the market closely and consult with a local real estate professional for the most up-to-date advice. It's all about timing and the specific neighborhood you're interested in.

Comparison with Current National Median Price

It's helpful to put the Fresno housing market in perspective by comparing it to the national average. As of January 2025, the national median home price is $396,900, with a year-over-year change of +4.8%. This means that the median home price in Fresno ($390,000) is 1% lower than the national average.

Here's a quick comparison:

Location	Median Sale Price	Year-over-Year Change
Fresno, CA	$390,000	+6.6%
United States	$396,900	+4.8%

This comparison highlights that while Fresno's home prices are increasing, they are slightly lower than the overall national median price, making Fresno an attractive place to purchase a home.

Housing Supply

Currently, the housing supply in Fresno is limited. While I don't have specific numbers on inventory, the fact that homes are selling in around 32 days suggests that there's a healthy demand and that homes aren't sitting on the market for very long. This tight housing supply is likely contributing to the upward pressure on prices. Keep in mind that housing supply is a key factor, and more houses available may balance the prices a bit.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the data, Fresno is leaning towards a seller's market. Here's why:

• Rising Home Prices: Indicate strong demand and limited supply.
• Quick Sales: Homes are selling relatively quickly (around 32 days), suggesting high buyer interest.
• Competitive Market: Homes receive, on average, 2 offers.

In a seller's market, homeowners have more leverage, and buyers may need to be more aggressive with their offers. This can also mean bidding wars for desirable properties.

Market Trends

To give you a better picture, let's break down some key market trends shaping the Fresno housing market:

• Migration Patterns: A significant portion of homebuyers searching in Fresno are looking to move out of the area. Top destinations include Sacramento, San Luis Obispo, and Portland. However, there's also an influx of buyers moving to Fresno, primarily from San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Visalia. This migration trend can impact demand and influence housing prices.
• Sale-to-List Price Ratio: In January 2025, the sale-to-list price ratio in Fresno was 98.7%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year. This means that homes are selling for slightly below the asking price, which can mean it can be a good time to buy.
• Homes Sold Above List Price: In January 2025, 29.8% of homes sold above the list price, a decrease of 6.8 percentage points year-over-year. While some homes are still attracting bidding wars, the percentage is declining.

Impact of high mortgage rates

The current mortgage rate environment plays a significant role in the Fresno housing market. As of early March 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.5%, and most forecasts predict it to remain at or slightly above this level.

High mortgage rates can have a cooling effect on the market. They make it more expensive to borrow money, which can reduce buyer demand. This increased cost of financing can affect home affordability and influence how much buyers are willing to spend.

However, despite high mortgage rates, the Fresno housing market remains relatively resilient, suggesting strong underlying demand. Potential homebuyers are likely adjusting to the new normal and are still motivated to purchase homes, even with higher borrowing costs.

Here is a summary of the Fresno Housing Market

Aspect	Data (January 2025)	Trend
Median Sale Price	$390,000	Up 6.6% year-over-year
Number of Homes Sold	208	Down 3.7% year-over-year
Median Days on Market	32	Same as last year
Sale-to-List Price Ratio	98.7%	Down 1.0 percentage point year-over-year
Homes Sold Above List Price	29.8%	Down 6.8 percentage points year-over-year
Mortgage Rates	~6.5%	Expected to remain stable or slightly above current levels

My Thoughts on Current Trends

As someone deeply involved in real estate, I've seen the Fresno housing market go through many changes. While the current trends indicate a competitive market with rising prices, it's essential to stay informed and make decisions that align with your individual circumstances.

The combination of high mortgage rates, increasing home prices, and limited housing supply makes it essential to approach the market with patience and careful planning. Whether you're buying or selling, working with a trusted real estate professional is crucial for navigating the complexities of the Fresno housing market and achieving your goals.

Fresno Housing Market Forecast: What's Coming in 2025 & Beyond?

You're probably wondering what's going to happen with home prices. According to the latest Fresno housing market forecast, experts at Zillow predict a slight increase in home values over the next year. While nobody has a crystal ball, let’s dive into the details and see what the data suggests for Fresno and how it stacks up against other California cities.

What the Numbers Say: Fresno Home Price Predictions

Zillow's most recent data, as of January 31, 2025, gives us some interesting insights. Here's a breakdown of what they're projecting for the Fresno, CA, housing market:

• February 2025: A 0.2% increase is expected.
• April 2025: A 0.6% increase is anticipated.
• January 2025 to January 2026: A 1% increase is the overall 1-year forecast.

So, based on this, it looks like Fresno home values are expected to slowly and steadily appreciate. This suggests a stable, though not booming, market for the near future.

Fresno vs. Other California Cities: A Quick Comparison

To put Fresno's forecast into perspective, let's see how it compares to other major metropolitan areas in California:

City	February 2025 Forecast	April 2025 Forecast	Jan 2025 – Jan 2026 Forecast
Fresno, CA	0.2%	0.6%	1%
Sacramento, CA	0%	0.2%	-0.5%
San Jose, CA	-0.5%	-2.4%	-2.4%
Bakersfield, CA	0.3%	0.9%	2.2%
Oxnard, CA	0.1%	0.5%	0.7%
Stockton, CA	0.1%	0.4%	0%
Modesto, CA	0.1%	0.4%	0.5%
Santa Rosa, CA	-0.1%	0.1%	-1.9%
Visalia, CA	0.3%	0.9%	1.6%
Vallejo, CA	0%	0.2%	-1.2%

As you can see, Fresno is holding its own, with projections indicating moderate growth compared to some cities experiencing potential dips in home values. Bakersfield and Visalia are expected to see higher growth.

Will Home Prices Drop in Fresno? Will It Crash?

Based on Zillow’s projections, a housing market crash in Fresno seems unlikely in the immediate future. While a 1% increase isn't a huge jump, it suggests continued, albeit slow, appreciation. A significant drop in prices would require major economic shifts that aren't currently predicted. Of course, things can change, and it's important to stay informed.

My Thoughts and a Look Beyond 2025

Having followed the Fresno real estate market for some time, my take is that the area benefits from relative affordability compared to coastal California. This makes it attractive to those seeking a more budget-friendly lifestyle, which in turn supports demand.

Predicting beyond 2025 gets trickier. Factors like interest rates, job growth in the Central Valley, and overall economic conditions will all play a role. If these remain stable or improve, we could see continued modest growth. However, any significant economic downturn could certainly impact the market.

As far as the Fresno housing market is concerned, my personal opinion is that the 2026 predictions depend on a number of factors but a slow steady growth is predicted. I feel the demand for housing will remain consistent while the supply struggles to catch up. Hence prices will slightly go up in 2026.

Is Fresno Real Estate a Smart Investment?

You're thinking about investing in real estate, but the market can be overwhelming. You've heard about booming cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles, but what about Fresno? Is it worth considering Fresno real estate as an investment? The short answer is yes, but there are a few things you should know before diving in.

Fresno is California's fifth largest city, and it's rapidly growing in popularity amongst investors. Located in the heart of the San Joaquin Valley, Fresno is a major agricultural center and boasts a robust economy. But is it a good time to buy? Let's break down the key factors that make Fresno a compelling option.

Pros of Investing in Fresno Real Estate

1. Affordable Housing Market: Compared to major metropolitan areas in California, Fresno offers significantly more affordable housing. According to Zillow, the median home value in Fresno is $384,076, while in San Francisco, it's a whopping $1.3 million. This affordability makes Fresno attractive to both first-time homebuyers and seasoned investors seeking high returns on investment.

2. Strong Rental Demand: Fresno has a strong rental market with consistently high occupancy rates. As of 2023, the vacancy rate in Fresno is around 4%, which is considered low. This means that finding tenants and generating rental income is relatively easy for landlords. The demand for rental properties is driven by factors like a growing population, a large student population, and a relatively low cost of living.

3. Economic Growth: Fresno's economy is diversified, with a significant presence in agriculture, healthcare, and manufacturing. The city also boasts a growing technology sector. In 2022, the unemployment rate in Fresno was 5.7%, reflecting a strong job market. This economic growth is attracting new residents and businesses, further bolstering the demand for housing.

4. Central Location: Fresno's location in the heart of California offers easy access to other major cities, including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Jose. It also serves as a gateway to Yosemite National Park and other popular destinations. This strategic location makes Fresno appealing for businesses and residents alike, contributing to its growing popularity.

5. Government Initiatives: The Fresno City Council has implemented a number of initiatives to promote economic development and improve quality of life, including investing in infrastructure, promoting affordable housing projects, and attracting new businesses. These efforts are creating a positive environment for investment and growth.

Cons of Investing in Fresno Real Estate

While Fresno offers several advantages for investors, it's important to acknowledge some potential drawbacks as well:

1. Limited Job Opportunities: Compared to larger cities, Fresno may have fewer high-paying job opportunities, particularly in specific industries like finance or technology. This could affect long-term appreciation of your investment.

2. High Crime Rates: Fresno has historically had higher crime rates than other major California cities. While this issue is being addressed, it's something investors should be aware of.

3. Limited Public Transportation: Fresno's public transportation system is not as comprehensive as in other cities. This could be a challenge for residents who rely on public transportation to get around.

4. Air Quality: Fresno's air quality is considered among the worst in the nation due to agricultural practices and other factors. This could be a concern for some potential homebuyers.

5. Limited Housing Options: While Fresno offers affordable housing, the selection might be less diverse compared to larger cities, with fewer high-end properties available.

Conclusion:

Overall, investing in Fresno real estate offers a unique set of pros and cons. Fresno's affordable housing, strong rental demand, growing economy, and central location make it an attractive market for investors seeking long-term returns. However, it's important to consider factors like crime rates, limited job opportunities, and air quality before making a decision.

Ultimately, your decision to invest in Fresno real estate should be based on your individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and long-term investment strategy. Do your research, compare investment options, and consider consulting with a local real estate professional to get personalized advice.