Today’s Mortgage Rates – October 28: Rate Volatility Returns Ahead of Fed Decision

Today, on October 28, the picture for mortgage rates offers a bit of clarity amidst ongoing market shifts. We're seeing some mixed signals, with the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate ticking up slightly, while its 15-year counterpart is moving in the opposite direction. This dance of numbers reflects the broader economic winds, and understanding these movements is key to making smart decisions about your homeownership journey. Let's break down what these latest figures mean for you.

Today's Mortgage Rates – October 28: Rate Volatility Returns Ahead of Fed Decision

Let's get right to what you're likely here for – the actual numbers. According to the latest data from Zillow, here's how the mortgage rates are looking on October 28:

Mortgage Type	Rate
30-year fixed	6.21%
20-year fixed	5.81%
15-year fixed	5.40%
5/1 ARM	6.37%
7/1 ARM	6.29%
30-year VA	5.61%
15-year VA	5.08%
5/1 VA	5.52%

Refinancing Your Home? Here's What Rates Look Like

If you're considering refinancing your mortgage, the rates you'll see might be slightly different. Refinance rates often take into account different market factors and lender policies.

Here's a look at the refinance rates, also from Zillow:

Mortgage Type	Refi Rate
30-year fixed	6.35%
20-year fixed	5.92%
15-year fixed	5.74%
5/1 ARM	6.67%
7/1 ARM	6.98%
30-year VA	5.78%
15-year VA	5.62%
5/1 VA	5.47%

Comparing these to the purchase rates gives you a good idea of how the market is treating homeowners looking to adjust their current loans.

The Federal Reserve: What's Happening Behind the Scenes?

A big piece of the puzzle, and something I always keep a close eye on, is the Federal Reserve. Their meetings are crucial because, while they don't directly set your mortgage rate, their decisions ripple through the economy and influence everything from Treasury yields to, you guessed it, mortgage rates.

Today, October 28, marks the start of a two-day meeting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The buzz among analysts is strong, with many predicting a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate. This anticipated cut is a direct response to economic signals like a moderating economy, persistent inflation (which is a tricky beast to tame!), and a softening labor market.

The official announcement from the Fed is expected tomorrow, October 29, at 2 p.m. ET. This will be followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, where we'll get more insight into their thinking. While a Fed rate cut doesn't instantly translate to lower mortgage rates, it often signals a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy, which can put downward pressure on longer-term rates.

Mortgage Rate Trends: A Journey Downward (Mostly)

Looking back, we've seen mortgage rates peak in 2024. Since then, there’s been a noticeable trend downwards throughout 2025, bringing them to their lowest points in over a year. This downward movement is a welcome sight for many.

Experts are suggesting that if the economy continues to slow and the job market shows weakness, we could see further decreases in mortgage rates. It’s a delicate balance; the Fed wants to cool inflation without pushing the economy into a deep recession.

However, it's worth putting today's rates into historical context. While they’ve come down from their recent highs, they are still elevated compared to the record lows we witnessed during the pandemic. This phenomenon has created what many call “golden handcuffs” for homeowners who locked in incredibly low rates back then. They may be hesitant to sell and buy again if it means taking on a much higher mortgage payment, contributing to the currently low housing inventory.

Impact on Housing: Buyers and Refinancers React

So, how do these fluctuating rates affect the housing market?

• A Surge in Refinancing: The recent dip in mortgage rates has definitely lit a fire under the refinancing market. For several weeks straight in October, refinancing applications have made up over half of all mortgage applications. This tells me that a lot of homeowners are actively looking to lower their monthly payments or tap into their home equity.
• A More Subdued Impact on Homebuyers: For those looking to buy a new home, the effect has been more of a gentle nudge than a shove. Some potential buyers are still playing it safe, perhaps due to lingering worries about affordability, high home prices, or an uncertain job market. Others, however, feel more confident stepping into the market now.
• Boosting Housing Confidence: The combination of falling rates and moderating home prices has certainly helped affordability and given a boost to overall confidence in the housing market. This is leading to a modest rise in home sales, a positive sign for the industry.

Looking Ahead: Forecasts and Predictions

What does the future hold for mortgage rates? It’s always a bit of an educated guess, but experts offer valuable insights.

Fannie Mae's October 2025 forecast is projecting a gradual decline in mortgage rates. They anticipate rates to end 2025 at around 6.3% and then continue to fall to about 5.9% in 2026.

On a longer-term horizon, many analyses suggest that we won't be returning to the super-low rates that defined the pandemic era. The increasing national debt and the fiscal pressures it brings are expected to keep long-term interest rates higher in the coming years.

The “golden handcuffs” effect I mentioned earlier isn't going away anytime soon either. This will likely continue to contribute to a limited housing inventory, which will remain a significant factor influencing the housing market's dynamics.

As we wrap up October, the mortgage rate environment remains dynamic. Keeping an eye on these trends and understanding the forces at play is your best bet for navigating the housing market effectively. Whether you're a buyer, a seller, or a homeowner considering a refinance, informed decisions lead to better outcomes.