Archives for December 2024

If you're anything like me, you've probably been glued to real estate websites, dreaming about your next move. Well, I've got some exciting news for you! According to Zillow's analysis of 2024, Manchester, New Hampshire is the most popular housing market right now. But it doesn't stop there. This year's trends point towards a fascinating shift, with smaller cities and exurbs grabbing the spotlight, alongside surprising regional winners. So, let's dive in and explore where everyone seems to be looking to call home!

The Rise of the Exurbs: A New Trend in Housing

Forget the hustle and bustle of big cities, many of us are looking for something different. What's interesting this year is that exurbs are really taking the lead. These are smaller towns located outside of the main suburbs but still close enough for an easy commute. I've always found the idea of living in a place that balances peaceful living with the option to easily get to the city very appealing.

The increase in hybrid work setups seems to be a major factor in this trend. People aren’t tied to offices as much anymore and that opens up a whole new world of possibilities. We're realizing that we can have a lower cost of living, more space and still be able to head into the city when we need to. It’s like finding a hidden gem that was always there, but we never had a reason to explore it fully.

Zillow's Top 10 Most Popular Housing Markets of 2024

Zillow, a major name in real estate, analyzes user data like page views, home value growth, and how quickly properties sell, to figure out where people are most interested in buying. The results give a great snapshot of the current housing market. Based on their analysis, here are the top 10 most popular markets this year:

• Manchester, New Hampshire
• Rockford, Illinois
• Stamford, Connecticut
• Columbia, Maryland
• Bridgeport, Connecticut
• Allentown, Pennsylvania
• Peoria, Illinois
• New Haven, Connecticut
• Waterbury, Connecticut
• Sunnyvale, California

As you can see, the Northeast continues to be quite popular, taking up a majority of the top spots, which is fascinating. The Midwest also shows a lot of interest and it's notable that only one West Coast market made the list. It shows that people are looking for alternatives. The West Coast is beautiful, I agree but for a while it has been notoriously expensive.

Manchester, New Hampshire: The Most Popular Overall

Let's talk about the overall winner – Manchester, New Hampshire. I'm not surprised it’s so popular! It's the largest city in the state and has been attracting the interest of many home shoppers. What's even more interesting is that this city has seen a 7.3% jump in typical home values within the last year, now sitting at $415,000. For all its growing appeal, it's still more affordable than other cities such as Boston. Many buyers from outside of Manchester have been looking to relocate there. This tells me that it's not just locals driving the market, it's people from all over seeking a change of scenery.

Diving Deeper: Regional Favorites and Specialized Markets

Okay, so we know the most popular overall spots but what about the types of markets? Let's check out how things are trending in different categories.

Most Popular Large City: Toledo, Ohio

Toledo, Ohio, has won the top spot for most popular large city! With a typical home valued at around $121,000, it is clear that affordability is a major attraction. Located near Lake Erie, it has an appealing mix of nature and cultural attractions, such as a thriving art scene. It seems like this city has a lot of potential. San Jose, California, and Wichita, Kansas, also secured spots in the top three in this category. I can totally understand why people are finding these cities interesting, they all offer something different.

Most Popular Small Town: Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania

Elizabethtown, Pennsylvania, is the most popular small town. It is a lovely town with only 12,000 residents, featuring charming streets, shops and parks. If you are looking to buy here, you have to be quick because houses are selling within five days! Small towns in the Midwest are also quite popular including Vermilion, Ohio; Roscoe, Illinois; and Twinsburg, Ohio. For someone like me who likes a smaller and quieter setting these towns sound really attractive.

Most Popular Coastal City: Milford, Connecticut

Milford, Connecticut, takes the title of most popular coastal city with its 17 miles of coastline along Long Island Sound. It has all the attractions for people who like beaches and boating. West Haven, Connecticut, and South Portland, Maine, are also popular coastal cities. It’s definitely clear that there is an enduring appeal to coastal living.

Most Popular Vacation Town: Portland, Maine

Portland, Maine is the most popular vacation town. It is located on a peninsula extending into Casco Bay and known for its art, architecture, and seafood. It is not really surprising that it’s such a hit with people who want to get away to the coast. Other East Coast towns like East Haven, Connecticut, and Newport, Rhode Island, also made it on the list, showing that the East Coast dominates the most popular vacation towns.

Most Popular Retirement City: Pahrump, Nevada

Pahrump, Nevada, 50 miles away from Las Vegas, has made it to the top as the most popular retirement city. I can see why. It has a warm climate and a significant population of people aged 65 and older. It seems to be a really good fit for retirees. Last year's number 1 retirement city, Pinehurst, North Carolina, is now in the second position.

Most Popular College Town: Normal, Illinois

Normal, Illinois, is the most popular college town. It is home to the Illinois State University Redbirds. Kent, Ohio, is in second place for the second year in a row. Other popular college towns include San Luis Obispo, California, Charlottesville, Virginia, and La Crosse, Wisconsin. It is great to see how these different types of towns attract different types of people!

Most Popular Cities by Geographic Region

Zillow's analysis also looked at the most popular cities by geographic regions. This is very interesting because it can show us what's trending in a wider geographical sense. Here are the regional winners:

• Northeast: Manchester, New Hampshire
• West: Sunnyvale, California
• Midwest: Rockford, Illinois
• Southwest: Rio Rancho, New Mexico
• Southeast: Cary, North Carolina
• Mountain Region: Fort Collins, Colorado

It's nice to see how popularity is spread out, and it's not all concentrated in one area.

What Does This Mean for You? Some Final Thoughts

So, what does all this data mean for you and me? Well, it's clear that the housing market is changing, and so are people's preferences. The rise of exurbs is a signal that the work-from-home shift has had a lasting effect on where people are choosing to live. It's also interesting to see that people are looking for affordability, different types of lifestyles and experiences whether that's in coastal towns, vacation towns, retirement or college towns. I personally find this trend very encouraging. It shows that we’re more flexible, and are choosing to live in places that suit our needs rather than just being tied to major city hubs.

If you're thinking about making a move, this data can give you an idea of what's trending and some locations that are worth checking out. However, remember that the “most popular” isn't necessarily the “best” for you, so be sure to do your own research and pick a place that is suitable for your own unique preferences and circumstances! I also recommend talking to local real estate experts who know the areas very well.

In Conclusion

The most popular housing markets of 2024 are showing a clear shift towards smaller cities and exurbs. Manchester, New Hampshire is leading the charge, but there is also popularity spread across various other cities, showcasing diverse lifestyle preferences. These changing trends are driven by factors such as increased hybrid work models and a growing interest in affordability. Keep this information in mind if you're planning on making a move soon, and happy house hunting!

Yes, you heard it right! Existing-home sales surged 4.8% in November, marking the most significant year-over-year increase since June 2021. This is a pretty big deal if you've been keeping an eye on the housing market, and it could indicate some exciting shifts are underway. I know I've been watching these numbers closely, and I'm here to break down exactly what this means for you, whether you're a buyer, seller, or just curious about the real estate world.

Home Sales Soar in November 2024 With Highest Jump Since Mid-2021

The Numbers Behind the Headlines

Let's get down to the nitty-gritty. According to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops, jumped up to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November. This 4.8% rise from October is a welcome change but more importantly, it's a 6.1% climb compared to November of the previous year. That's the biggest jump we've seen in a while!

To put it into perspective, back in June 2021, we saw a whopping 23% year-over-year increase, but lately things have been much more subdued. So, this recent jump is definitely something to pay attention to.

• November 2024 Existing Home Sales: 4.15 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate)
• Month-over-Month Change: Increased 4.8% from October
• Year-over-Year Change: Increased 6.1% from November 2023

Key Takeaway: Home sales are not just bouncing back, they are showing some real upward momentum.

What's Driving This Increase?

So, what’s fueling this resurgence? According to NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, a few factors are in play:

• Job Growth: A growing economy means more people are employed, and with a steady paycheck, the dream of homeownership becomes a reality.
• Increased Housing Inventory: The number of homes for sale is slowly ticking up, which gives buyers more options and a bit more negotiating power.
• Mortgage Rates Stabilizing: While mortgage rates are still higher than we saw a few years back, they’ve settled into a new range between 6% and 7%, which people seem to be adjusting to.

I think it’s that “new normal” idea that's really crucial here. After the wild ride of the past few years, buyers and sellers are getting a better grasp on what's realistic in this market. We’re seeing more people jumping in because they are ready and have adjusted their expectations.

Inventory & Prices: What You Need to Know

Now let's talk about the homes themselves. While sales are up, the available inventory of homes is a bit of a mixed bag.

• Inventory Levels: At the end of November, there were 1.33 million homes on the market. That’s a 2.9% dip from October, but a 17.7% jump compared to the same time last year. So, while there are still more choices for buyers compared to last year, the month-over-month drop could suggest that things are moving pretty quickly, and buyers may still need to act decisively.
• Months' Supply: Currently, the market has about a 3.8-month supply of homes at the current sales pace. This is down from 4.2 months in October but up from 3.5 months in November 2023. A balanced market usually sits around a 6-month supply, so we're still leaning towards a sellers' market, but the situation is less skewed now than last year.

Median Home Prices: It is hard to miss the fact that prices are up. The median existing-home price in November was $406,100, which is a 4.7% increase compared to November 2023. And get this: this marks the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. That means home values have been steadily climbing, making it a good time for some homeowners who might want to sell.

Regional Price Differences: It is also interesting to note that all four major regions in the US saw price increases. However, the Northeast experienced the highest median price jump of 9.9%, reaching $475,500, while the West’s median price was the highest at $628,200. The Midwest stood at $302,000 and the South at $361,300.

Who's Buying and How Are They Paying?

It is not just the total sales numbers that are important; we must also see who is participating in this market. Let's take a closer look:

• First-Time Buyers: They made up 30% of sales in November, up from 27% in October. However, this is slightly down from the 31% we saw in November 2023. The real kicker is that the annual share of first-time buyers in 2024 hit a historic low of 24%. This suggests that first-time buyers might still be struggling to enter the market despite some improvements.
• Cash Buyers: Cash sales accounted for 25% of transactions, which is a slight decrease compared to 27% in both October 2024 and November 2023. This could indicate that more people are relying on mortgages again as rates have slightly stabilized.
• Investors and Second-Home Buyers: This group made up only 13% of sales, which is down from 17% in October and 18% in November 2023. I think this indicates that the focus is shifting back to primary homeowners rather than investors looking to scoop up properties.
• Distressed Sales: Foreclosures and short sales accounted for a very small portion of the market, just 2%. This remains consistent with last month and the previous year.

Mortgage Rates: A Key Piece of the Puzzle

Mortgage rates play a massive role in all of this. As of December 12, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. It was 6.95% a year ago, so we are seeing rates trending down slightly, which makes buying more affordable for some.

• Current 30-Year Fixed Rate (as of Dec 12): 6.6%
• One Week Prior: 6.69%
• One Year Prior: 6.95%

I feel that even the slightest dips in interest rates can give potential buyers that extra bit of confidence to take the plunge.

Regional Trends: Where Are Sales Booming?

The growth in sales wasn't uniform across the country. Here's how each region performed:

• Northeast: Existing-home sales in the Northeast saw a big jump of 8.5% from October, reaching an annual rate of 510,000, and they're up 6.3% from November 2023.
• Midwest: In the Midwest, sales increased by 5.3% from October to an annual rate of 1 million, and they are also up 5.3% compared to last year.
• South: The South saw a 5.6% increase in sales from October, hitting an annual rate of 1.87 million, which is a 3.3% increase from a year ago.
• West: The West saw no change in sales from October, remaining at an annual rate of 770,000, but they are up a whopping 14.9% from November 2023, the largest Y-o-Y jump.

Regional Sales Comparison

It is clear from these numbers that the West is experiencing the highest Y-o-Y sales growth, but the Northeast is seeing the biggest price appreciation.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you are thinking about buying or selling, all this can be a lot to take in. Here is my quick summary, based on my understanding:

• For Buyers: While inventory is a bit tight in some places, there are definitely more homes available than there were last year, and prices are still going up. It's time to weigh your options carefully, get pre-approved for a mortgage, and be ready to move quickly when you find a place you love. Don't get discouraged by a high interest rate. If you're going to live in the home long term, you can always refinance when the rates go down.
• For Sellers: It’s still a good time to sell, as prices continue to climb. If you have been waiting, now might be a good time to consider listing your property, especially in regions like the Northeast where prices are spiking.
• Overall: The market is showing signs of stability and growth, but it's still a very dynamic environment. I think it's critical to stay informed and work with a qualified real estate professional who knows the market.

My Final Thoughts

Personally, I'm finding these recent housing market trends quite intriguing. The increased sales, combined with the steady price growth, suggests we're moving into a more stable phase after the turbulence of the past couple of years. The market is showing signs of balance, which could lead to a healthier and more sustainable housing environment in the long run. The slightly reduced interest rates, along with growing employment numbers, have started to play their part.

I hope this in-depth look at the latest housing market data has been insightful for you. It is so important to stay updated and to understand what these numbers mean for your personal goals.

If you've been following the housing market, you know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster lately. It feels like we’re all holding our breath, waiting for things to change, especially if you're hoping to buy or sell a house soon. I’ve been watching these trends closely, and honestly, the latest news is a bit sobering. According to Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, existing home sales are expected to stay near their 30-year lows throughout 2025. Yep, you read that right.

Now, before you panic, let’s break down what this actually means, why it’s happening, and what you can expect if you're navigating this tricky market. I'll also throw in my two cents based on what I'm seeing out there.

Existing Home Sales Predicted to Remain at 30-year Low in 2025

What Does “Near 30-Year Lows” Really Mean?

First off, let's put this into perspective. Thirty years ago, in the early to mid-1990s, the housing market was a completely different beast. Mortgage rates were higher, and home prices were considerably lower than they are today. When we say “near 30-year lows,” we’re talking about a significant slowdown in the number of existing homes being sold compared to the last three decades. Basically, fewer people are selling their homes, and fewer people are buying them.

This means less movement in the market overall. Fewer opportunities for sellers to make a quick move and fewer options for buyers looking for their dream home. It paints a picture of a housing market that's, well, stuck.

Why Are We Stuck?

So, what's causing this standstill? Well, there are a few key factors at play, and they’re all interconnected like a messy ball of yarn.

• The “Lock-In” Effect: This is a big one. A lot of current homeowners have low mortgage rates – think 3% or even lower – from when the rates were at rock bottom. The thought of trading that in for a 6% or higher interest rate is a tough pill to swallow. This keeps people put. It’s like they are “locked-in” to their current homes, and they’re not eager to give up that low rate. This results in fewer homes hitting the market.
• High Mortgage Rates: Even though rates are predicted to decline modestly, the fact that they are expected to stay above 6% is a major hurdle. The cost of borrowing money is still high, which means higher monthly payments for homebuyers. This immediately pushes many buyers out of the market altogether, especially first-time buyers. In my experience, I've seen many families postpone their home buying plans because of this.
• Affordability Issues: It's not just the mortgage rates. Even if rates dipped a bit, home prices are still elevated in many areas. This combination of higher prices and high interest rates makes buying a home incredibly challenging. As Fannie Mae also notes, supply is still below pre-pandemic levels. It's a perfect storm of factors making it hard for many folks to get their foot in the door of homeownership.

Fannie Mae's 2025 Housing Market Predictions in Detail

Let's dig a little deeper into what Fannie Mae is predicting. They've laid out a few key trends to watch in 2025. Here’s a breakdown of their predictions and my take on each:

• Modest Decline in Mortgage Rates: They predict that mortgage rates will decrease slightly, but they will stay above 6%, with periods of volatility. This volatility is key to watch. Even with average higher rates, temporary drops might offer brief windows for buyers to jump in. As a real estate watcher, I think it’s crucial for those in the market to stay vigilant and be ready to move when those dips occur.
• Existing Home Sales Remain Near 30-Year Lows: This is the big one we’ve been talking about. The “lock-in” effect and affordability issues, they are all converging to keep activity subdued. We’re not expecting some massive wave of homes hitting the market anytime soon.
• New Home Sales as a Bright Spot: Here's a bit of good news. New home sales are expected to be stronger. Builders are actively targeting first-time homebuyers with new offerings. If you are open to new construction, that's something you can explore. But keep in mind this is limited to areas where building is possible and affordable.
• Decelerating National Home Price Growth: Fannie Mae predicts that national home price growth will slow down. While this doesn't mean a massive price drop, it could offer a bit of relief to buyers. I think this slow down is more of a return to normalcy and should be welcomed. It gives a bit of breathing room to the market.
• Multifamily Housing in a Holding Pattern: The multifamily housing sector, like apartments and rentals, is expected to remain stable. This is an area I think needs more attention because with fewer options to buy, rental becomes the only choice for many.

A Closer Look at Regional Differences

It's critical to understand that the housing market is not uniform. What’s happening in one area might be totally different in another. Fannie Mae points out some big regional differences:

• The Sun Belt: This is where construction has been active, and builders are focusing on first-time homebuyers. I've noticed more activity here with more development being built that’s creating an option to purchase new construction. You might see a little more movement in this market compared to other areas.
• The Northeast: This area is expected to remain constrained. Supply is already low and there is less room for new construction. This means prices might be stickier and competition for existing homes will likely remain high. This is a common experience for those of us who've been watching the northeast closely.

A Glimmer of Hope: Wage Growth

One encouraging thing I am seeing is Fannie Mae's mention that nominal wage growth is expected to surpass home price growth in 2025. This hasn't happened in over a decade. This means that, slowly but surely, people might see their income finally catch up to the price of housing. This could offer some much-needed relief to potential homebuyers, but it won't be an overnight fix.

What This Means For You

So, how should you interpret this data? Here's my take on it:

If you're a potential buyer:

• Be Patient and Vigilant: Don’t expect a drastic market change overnight. Keep an eye out for those temporary dips in mortgage rates and be prepared to act fast.
• Consider New Construction: If your area has new construction happening, explore these options. Builders are trying to lure in first time buyers with incentives, so you could find a good deal.
• Be Flexible on Location: If you can be flexible with your location, you might find more opportunities in areas that have more supply.
• Budget Carefully: It's even more critical than ever to budget realistically and understand your long-term financial obligations.

If you're a potential seller:

• Realize It's a Slower Market: Don’t expect your home to fly off the shelves immediately. You may need to be more patient.
• Price Competitively: With a constrained market, pricing accurately is key. Don't overprice your home, or it may sit for months.
• Consider Timing: If you can, timing your sale to coincide with periods of lower mortgage rates could help attract buyers.

For everyone else:

• Stay Informed: It’s crucial to stay updated on the latest market trends, especially if you’re thinking about a move in the near future. Things can change quickly, and staying informed can help you make better decisions.
• Prepare: Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, preparation is vital. Look at all your financial details and get pre-approved if you are thinking of purchasing.

My Final Thoughts

As someone who follows the housing market closely, I can tell you that these are challenging times. But, knowledge is power. Knowing what to expect can help you navigate these challenges more effectively. The housing market is complex, and it's important to look at data, consider your own local situations, and adjust your expectations. I believe that the market will eventually turn around, but it may be a while before we see a big shift.

Here’s a summary of the data we discussed:

The data from Fannie Mae paints a picture of a market that's sluggish and will likely remain so through 2025. The combination of high mortgage rates, affordability issues, and the lock-in effect are all contributing to a constrained housing market. While things may change slowly over time, it's clear that we're in for more of the same for now. I hope this in-depth view of the market will help you in making a decision with your home buying and selling needs.