Marco Santarelli, Author at Norada Real Estate Investments

Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 23: Buyers Cheer As Rates Hit Lowest Point in 3 Years

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

If you're looking to buy a home or refinance an existing mortgage, January 23, 2026, brings some welcome news: mortgage rates are currently sitting close to their lowest points in a year. This is a significant shift from the higher rates we saw not too long ago, and it's This is a moment many have been waiting for. For a while there, it felt like the dream of homeownership was slipping further out of reach for many. But the current rate environment is offering a fresh wave of optimism.

Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 23: Buyers Cheer As Rates Hit Lowest Point in 3 Years

What the Numbers Are Telling Us: A Look at the Averages

To get a clear picture of where things stand, I usually look at a couple of reliable sources. First up is Freddie Mac, a company that provides vital stability for the housing market. According to their latest weekly update, things are looking pretty good.

30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: The average for this popular loan type clocked in at 6.09% for the week. To put that in perspective, just one year ago, we were looking at an average of 6.96%. That's a noticeable drop!
15-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage: For those looking at shorter-term loans, the average is 5.44%. Again, compare that to the 6.16% we saw a year ago, and it's a clear improvement.

These Freddie Mac figures give us a great, broad overview of where the national averages are heading. But to get a real-time pulse, I also check data from services like Zillow. Their latest figures offer a more granular look at the current mortgage rates available to borrowers today, January 23, 2026.

Here’s a snapshot of what Zillow is reporting:

Loan Type	Current Average Rate
30-Year Fixed	5.96%
20-Year Fixed	6.07%
15-Year Fixed	5.51%
5/1 ARM	6.19%
7/1 ARM	6.06%
30-Year VA	5.65%
15-Year VA	5.33%
5/1 VA	5.31%

Remember, these are national averages and have been rounded to the nearest hundredth. Your actual rate might be a little different.

While the Freddie Mac numbers are a weekly benchmark, the Zillow data gives us a snapshot of what’s actively being offered right now. It’s encouraging to see the 30-year fixed rate dipped slightly below 6% in Zillow's latest figures, even though Freddie Mac's weekly average is just a hair above. This indicates a strong, competitive market.

Understanding the “Why”: Factors Driving Today's Rates

It's easy to just look at the numbers and feel good, but as someone who's navigated the mortgage process a few times, I always try to understand what's behind the movements. Mortgage rates don't just appear out of thin air; they're influenced by a whole mix of economic forces.

One of the biggest players is the 10-year Treasury yield. Think of this as a benchmark for many loan interest rates. When the 10-year Treasury yield goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice versa. We've seen a lot of back-and-forth with this recently, thanks to everything from economic shifts to global events that can make investors nervous.

Then there's the Federal Reserve. They control the federal funds rate, which is like the thermostat for the economy. While the Fed has been making moves to adjust rates, they're currently in a bit of a holding pattern, and this indirectly influences the mortgage rates we see. Even though there have been some rate cuts, mortgage rates have stayed in a relatively narrow band.

I've noticed that economists are generally expecting rates to hang around the low 6% range for most of 2026. There's a possibility we might see them dip a bit lower, perhaps into the high 5s, if inflation continues to calm down as hoped. However, a return to the super-low rates we saw during the pandemic, like those under 4%, is pretty unlikely unless something truly unexpected happens in the economy.

The Impact on You: Homebuyers and Refinancers Rejoice

So, what does this all mean for the average person? It's good news, plain and simple!

For Homebuyers: The current rate environment, while still higher than pandemic lows, is a huge relief compared to the peaks of 2023 and 2024. This makes monthly payments more manageable and opens the door for more people to achieve homeownership. I've spoken with many first-time homebuyers who are finally feeling like they can make their dream a reality.
For Refinancers: If you took out a mortgage when rates were higher, often in the 7% range or even above, now is an excellent time to consider refinancing. Locking in a lower rate can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. It's like getting a discount on your biggest monthly expense.

It's Not Just a National Picture: State and Local Differences Matter

It’s important to remember that the national averages are just that – averages. The reality on the ground can vary quite a bit from state to state, and even town to town.

Zillow’s data gives us a glimpse into this, showing that average 30-year fixed rates by state in January 2026 are generally ranging from 6.00% to 6.53%.

Looking for Lower Rates: States like Arkansas are currently showing some of the lowest averages, around 6.00%. Historically, states with a lot of mortgage lenders competing, such as California, Massachusetts, and Washington, often have rates that are lower than the national average.
Higher Averages: On the flip side, states like Connecticut have been reporting higher average rates recently, up to 6.53%. Other states that sometimes see higher averages include New Jersey, New York, and Iowa. This can be due to various factors, like how lenders operate in those areas or legal processes that might add a bit more risk for lenders.

Beyond the State Lines: Regional and Metro Variations

Even within a state, your specific metropolitan area can play a role. Lenders often adjust their rates based on the local market's risk and their own business costs.

Busy Metro Areas: Big cities like San Francisco, New York City, and Los Angeles tend to have a lot of lenders vying for business. This intense competition can sometimes push rates down, even if home prices in those areas are quite high.
Growing Markets: In areas that are expected to grow a lot, like perhaps Hartford, CT, you might see some adjustments in affordability that influence local rate offerings.
Affordable Pockets: On the other hand, some cities in the Northeast and Midwest are showing rates that are a bit sweeter than the national average. For instance, Rochester, NY (around 6.01%) and Pittsburgh, PA (around 6.07%) have recently had rates slightly below the national mark.

What I'm Thinking About This Trend

From my perspective, seeing these rates hover near one-year lows is a very positive sign for the housing market. It's a signal that things are stabilizing after a period of considerable uncertainty. If I were advising someone today, I’d be telling them to absolutely explore their options, whether they're looking to buy or refinance.

However, I also caution against waiting too long without a plan. While rates are good now, they can and do change. The best approach is always to get pre-approved and understand what you qualify for. This way, you’re ready to act when you find the right home or when the refinancing opportunity is perfect for you.

It's also crucial to shop around. Don't just go with the first lender you talk to. Comparing offers from different banks, credit unions, and mortgage brokers can lead to significant savings. Even a quarter-point difference can add up to a lot of money over 30 years.

The fact that rates are near a one-year low is a fantastic opportunity. It balances the desire for lower payments with the ongoing reality of housing prices. It’s not quite the ultra-low rate environment of a few years ago, but it’s a much more accessible market than we’ve seen recently.

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Southern California Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

When you’re thinking about making a big move, whether buying or selling, the question everyone asks is: “What's really happening in the market?” When it comes to the Southern California housing market, the end of 2025 offered a mixed but ultimately stable picture. Sales picked up month-over-month, showing a renewed interest from buyers, while prices across much of the region held remarkably steady or saw modest gains despite a slight dip in the statewide median.

The latest report from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) provides some excellent insights into December 2025. It tells a story of an evolving market, one that's finding its footing after some ups and downs, and it's particularly fascinating to see how our local counties are performing compared to the broader state.

Southern California Housing Market Trends

Home Sales: A December Boost for Southern California

If you were watching the market a few months ago, you might have noticed things felt a bit sluggish. But December brought a pleasant surprise. C.A.R. reports that California's statewide existing single-family home sales saw a 2.0% jump year-over-year. For our specific region, Southern California echoed this positive trend with a respectable 1.7% increase in sales year-over-year. This is a great sign because it tells me that buyers, perhaps spurred by improving mortgage rates, were more willing to make moves as the year closed out.

Looking at the month-over-month numbers, the region saw a significant 13.5% increase in sales from November to December. This suggests that while there can be seasonal slowdowns, strong underlying demand is still present. It’s worth noting that this December surge brought the annual sales level for 2025 up slightly from 2024, indicating a strengthening foundation for our market.

Let's break down some of our counties:

Imperial County saw a solid 9.5% year-over-year sales increase.
Orange County registered a 2.4% year-over-year sales increase.
San Bernardino County experienced a healthy 6.1% year-over-year sales increase.
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties also saw modest gains at 0.9% and 1.4% respectively.
San Diego County was a bit of an outlier, with sales dipping slightly by 0.6% year-over-year, even as prices rose. This shows that despite overall regional trends, local market dynamics can vary quite a bit.

Home Prices: Stability with County-Specific Growth

When we talk about prices, the statewide median home price in December 2025 was $850,680, which was down slightly from both November and December 2024. However, here in Southern California, our median price actually nudged up by 0.6% year-over-year to $855,000. Month-over-month, we saw a slight dip of 0.6%, which is pretty typical as the year winds down and intense competition eases.

What I find most interesting is the resilience of prices in Southern California. While the state saw a yearly decline, our region bucked the trend. This tells me that the demand for homes in our specific area, with its appealing lifestyle and robust economy, continues to be strong.

Here's how some counties stacked up:

Imperial County led the region with an impressive 21.5% year-over-year increase in its median price. What a jump!
San Diego County saw a good 2.6% increase.
Orange County and Ventura County both reported 2.1% and 2.0% increases, respectively.
San Bernardino County also saw its median price rise by 2.0%.
Riverside County had a modest 1.6% increase.
Los Angeles County was the only one to see a year-over-year price decrease of 2.4%.

In my experience, these variations highlight the hyper-local nature of real estate. What's happening in Imperial or Orange County might be quite different from Los Angeles, even within the same broad region.Factors like job growth, specific inventory levels, and buyer competition within each county play a huge role.

Housing Supply: A Gradual Rebalancing Act

The amount of homes for sale, or housing supply, is always a big factor. For Southern California, the Unsold Inventory Index (UII) in December sat at 2.9 months. This means that if no new homes came onto the market, it would take about 2.9 months to sell all the current listings. This is down from 3.8 months in November but just slightly up from 2.8 months in December 2024.

What does this tell me? Well, we’re seeing a bit of a rebalancing. Statewide, active listings have gone up year-over-year for 23 months straight, but the pace has slowed down. In Southern California, the median time it took to sell a home was 35 days, which is the same as November but a bit longer than the 31.5 days reported in December 2024. This extended time on market suggests buyers have a little more room to breathe, and sellers might need to be more realistic with pricing, a shift from the rapid-fire sales we saw a couple of years ago.

Market Trends: Setting the Stage for 2026

So, what's really driving these shifts? A big piece of the puzzle is mortgage rates. C.A.R. reported that the 30-year fixed-mortgage rate averaged 6.19% in December, a noticeable drop from 6.72% a year earlier. Lower rates often give buyers more purchasing power, which directly impacts activity.

Tamara Suminski, C.A.R.'s 2026 President, who is also a broker right here in Southern California, shared her optimism, saying, “As price growth eased toward the end of the year and mortgage rates fell to near-three-year lows, the stage is set for a more optimistic 2026.” I couldn't agree more. This sentiment aligns with what I’m observing on the ground: renewed buyer confidence.

Jordan Levine, C.A.R.'s Chief Economist, also confirmed that housing affordability saw some improvement in the last quarter of 2025. He expects “modest economic growth and continued progress for the housing market in 2026.”

From my perspective, this means we're likely heading into a more balanced market. Buyers will have more options and potentially more negotiating power, while sellers can still expect a good return if their properties are priced correctly and well-presented. It’s no longer the wild west, but it’s still a thriving place to own a home.

Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2026

I believe that the Southern California housing market will continue to be a competitive environment for buyers, but with some opportunities.

I expect home price appreciation to slow further in 2025, with growth rates potentially declining to the 2-4% range.
The housing supply is expected to increase gradually, offering more choices to buyers.
Interest rates will likely remain elevated, but their impact on the market is expected to lessen as people adjust to the new norm.
Demand for housing in Southern California will likely remain strong, driven by population growth and the desirability of the region.

Stability with Subtle Shifts: I expect the Southern California housing market to continue on its path of relative stability. We're unlikely to see a massive surge in sales similar to what we experienced a couple of years ago. Instead, expect more of this gradual, measured activity.

Mortgage Rates are King: The direction of mortgage rates will be the biggest influencer. If rates continue to ease, we could see a more significant uptick in buyer activity. If they start climbing again, momentum might stall. I'm keeping a close eye on economic indicators that could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions.

Affordability Remains Key: For many, especially in areas like Los Angeles and Orange County, affordability will remain a significant challenge. This will likely continue to drive interest towards more accessible regions like the Inland Empire and parts of the Central Valley.

Inventory Management for Sellers: Sellers who price their homes correctly and present them well will continue to have the best chance of success. The days of multiple offers above asking price might be less common, but well-positioned homes will still attract serious buyers.

Regional Disparities Will Persist: As we’ve seen, different counties and regions will perform differently. Ventura, with its recent sales boost and price drop, could see continued buyer interest. Other areas like San Bernardino might remain strong due to their relative affordability.

The “Wait-and-See” Approach: Many potential buyers are still in a “wait-and-see” mode, hoping for even better conditions. However, the longer they wait, the more they might miss out on current opportunities, especially if rates begin to rise again.

My overall forecast is for a more balanced market in 2025. While it will still be a seller's market in many areas, buyers will have slightly more leverage.

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Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2026-2027

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in the Bay Area—or simply trying to make sense of where one of the country’s most closely watched housing markets is headed—you’re in the right place. With mortgage rates easing from recent highs and early 2026 data coming into focus, it’s a good moment to take a fresh look at the Bay Area housing market forecast.

The short answer: the market continues to cool and stabilize. After years of sharp swings driven by rate shocks and shifting demand, prices are showing more measured movement, and activity is gradually normalizing. Rather than signaling a major downturn or a renewed surge, current trends point to a period of adjustment—though, as always in the Bay Area, conditions can vary widely by city, price point, and buyer type.

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2026-2027

Key Takeaways

🏠 Current Average Home Value

$1,087,917 (Zillow)

in the Bay Area (November 2025)

⏱️ Median Days to Pending

21 Days

Time for pending sales

📉 2025 Bay Area Price Forecast

-1.6%

expected decline between November 2025 to November 2026

💹 Sales Dynamics

49.4%

of sales above listing price (October 2025)

Where the Bay Area Market Stands Today

Before we look ahead, let's get a feel for where the Bay Area housing market is today. Based on the latest data I'm seeing:

The average home value across the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward area is sitting around $1,087,917.
That's actually down 3.2% compared to this time last year. It tells me things aren't just going up blindly anymore.
Homes are moving reasonably quickly, taking about 21 days on average to go into pending status. This is a decent pace, showing continued interest.
The median sale price recently clocked in at $1,105,333.
And the median list price (what sellers are asking) is currently $949,963.

This snapshot shows a market that's cooling off from the frenzy of previous years but still holds significant value and demand. Buyers might have a little more breathing room than before, but inventory and price points remain high.

A Look at the Forecast

Predicting the future is tough, but experts try their best! Zillow recently shared some insights into what they expect for the San Francisco area market. Here’s a breakdown of their predictions based on available data, looking at a few key dates:

Region Name	Forecast Period Starts	Forecast Dec 2025	Forecast Feb 2026	Forecast Nov 2026
San Francisco, CA (MSA)	Nov 30, 2025	+0.2%	-0.3%	-1.6%

What does this mean?

December 2025: Zillow predicts a tiny increase of 0.2% in home values. This suggests a very slight upward tick, almost flat.
February 2026: By early 2026, the forecast shifts slightly negative, predicting a 0.3% drop. This indicates stabilization or a minor dip.
November 2026: Looking out a full year from late 2025, Zillow forecasts a larger decrease of -1.6%. This points towards a continued trend of modest price declines over the next year.

So, Zillow isn't predicting a crash, but they aren't forecasting a boom either. Their Bay Area housing market forecast suggests a period of slight depreciation or stabilization through much of 2026. Keep in mind this is for the broader metro area (MSA), which includes surrounding counties.

For context, let's look at nearby San Jose, another key part of the Bay Area:

December 2025: +0.6%
February 2026: -0.1%
November 2026: +0.8%

San Jose's numbers are a bit more mixed, showing a slightly stronger start but still settling into a more moderate range by the end of the forecast period. It's interesting how different parts of the Bay might behave slightly differently!

Bay Area vs. The Rest of the State of California

How does the Bay Area's outlook stack up against other major California cities? It's always helpful to compare. Here’s Zillow’s forecast for various regions in California:

Region Name	Forecast Dec 2025	Forecast Feb 2026	Forecast Nov 2026
Los Angeles	+0.2%	+0.1%	+1.2%
Riverside	+0.1%	+0.4%	+2.2%
San Diego	0%	-0.4%	+1.6%
Sacramento	0%	-0.3%	-0.5%
San Jose	+0.6%	-0.1%	+0.8%
Fresno	+0.2%	+0.4%	+1.8%
Bakersfield	+0.1%	+0.3%	+2.3%
Oxnard	+0.2%	0%	+0.9%
Stockton	-0.2%	-0.5%	-0.7%
Modesto	+0.1%	+0.1%	+0.8%
San Fran.	+0.2%	-0.3%	-1.6%

Source: Zillow

From this, we can see a few things:

The San Francisco metro area has one of the most negative forecasts looking out to late 2026 among these regions.
San Jose shows a slightly more positive outlook by late 2026 than San Francisco.
Southern California markets like Los Angeles and San Diego are predicted to see modest growth by late 2026.
Inland areas like Bakersfield and Riverside show stronger positive growth predictions by the end of 2026.
Sacramento and Stockton are also showing slight declines in their longer-term forecasts, similar to San Francisco.

This comparison suggests the Bay Area, particularly San Francisco, might continue to experience a cooling trend relative to some other parts of California, while areas with potentially lower price points and different economic drivers might see more growth.

The Bigger Picture: National Housing Market Trends

What’s happening nationwide also influences our local Bay Area market. Both Zillow and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) have shared their thoughts on the U.S. housing market.

Zillow's National Predictions:

Home Values: Expect a modest rise of about 1.2% over the next 12 months. This is driven by ongoing inventory challenges, even with slightly softer demand.
Home Sales: They predict around 4.09 million existing home sales in 2025, a small increase from 2024. Things are expected to pick up more steam in 2026 as mortgage rates potentially ease.
Rents: Single-family rents are predicted to increase by 2.2%, partly because high mortgage rates are keeping more people renting. Apartment rents might dip slightly.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun's Outlook:

Existing Home Sales: Yun is more optimistic, forecasting a 6% increase in 2025 and an 11% jump in 2026. He sees a real recovery coming.
New Home Sales: Projected to grow by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026, which is great news for tackling housing shortages.
Median Home Prices: Modest growth is expected, around 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. This is a return to more sustainable appreciation.
Mortgage Rates: Yun sees rates averaging 6.4% in late 2025 and dropping to 6.1% in 2026. He calls lower rates a “magic bullet” for affordability.

My Take on National Trends: The national picture suggests a market moving towards stabilization and modest growth, heavily influenced by mortgage rates. If rates come down as predicted, it could unlock demand nationwide. However, the Bay Area often dances to its own beat due to its unique economic factors and extremely high costs.

So, Will Bay Area Home Prices Drop Significantly? Will it Crash?

This is the million-dollar question, right? Based on everything I'm seeing – the current slight year-over-year dip, Zillow's forecast showing declines through late 2026 for SF, and the national trends pointing towards stabilization – I don't think we're looking at a “crash” in the way some might fear.

A crash usually means a steep, rapid drop in prices across the board, often tied to major economic downturns or market imbalances. While the Bay Area is seeing some price softening, especially compared to the peaks, several factors are likely preventing a nosedive:

Persistent Housing Shortage: We've built far fewer homes than needed for decades. This fundamental supply issue provides a floor for prices. Even with slower demand, there simply aren't enough homes for everyone who wants one.
Strong Job Market (Relatively): Despite tech layoffs, the Bay Area remains a hub for innovation and attracts talent. A healthy (even if evolving) job market supports housing demand.
Interest Rate Sensitivity: The current high mortgage rates are impacting affordability and cooling demand, which explains the price moderation. If rates ease significantly as NAR predicts, it could actually boost prices by bringing more buyers back into the market.
Inventory Levels: While improving slightly, inventory isn't overflowing. Homes are still selling within a reasonable time frame. A market crash typically involves a huge glut of homes sitting on the market.

My assessment? Expect continued moderation. Prices might nudge down slightly more in some areas, particularly for properties that were overpriced during the boom. Sellers might need to be more realistic with their pricing and expectations. However, a widespread, dramatic price collapse seems unlikely given the underlying supply constraints and the region's economic importance. Think stabilization and perhaps minor corrections, not a crash.

A Peek into Late 2026 and Early 2027

Looking further out is even more speculative, but we can try to connect the dots.

If mortgage rates do ease towards the 6-6.5% range by mid-to-late 2026, as NAR suggests, this could stimulate demand. Combined with the ongoing (though slow) improvement in housing inventory, we might see:

Increased Sales Activity: More buyers could enter the market, leading to higher transaction volumes.
Slight Price Rebound: Depending on how much demand returns versus available supply, prices could start to tick up again modestly towards the end of 2026 and into early 2027. The Zillow forecast shows a slight uptick for San Jose by Nov 2026, which might be an early sign of this.
Continued Regional Differences: High-cost areas like San Francisco might still lag behind more affordable regions in terms of price growth.

However, if economic conditions worsen or interest rates stay stubbornly high, the slight price declines forecast by Zillow for the Bay Area could persist longer into 2027. The key factors to watch will be inflation, Federal Reserve policy on interest rates, and the overall health of the tech sector and wider economy.

Wrapping Up: Navigating the Bay Area Market

The Bay Area housing market forecast paints a picture of transition. We're moving away from the rapid appreciation of recent years towards a more balanced, albeit still expensive, market. Expect moderate price adjustments rather than drastic drops. For buyers, this might mean slightly better opportunities and perhaps less competition, especially if they can secure a decent mortgage rate. For sellers, patience and realistic pricing will be key.

It’s a complex market, and while data gives us guideposts, real estate always involves unique local factors. Staying informed and working with knowledgeable professionals is the best way to navigate whatever comes next.

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San Diego Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

If you've been wondering what's happening in San Diego's dynamic real estate world, here's the quick take: The San Diego housing market closed out 2025 with median single-family home prices hitting the $1,000,000 mark in December, showing a respectable 2.6% increase compared to December 2024, despite a slight year-over-year dip in sales. This steady growth, according to the latest data from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), suggests a market that’s finding its footing, offering glimpses of renewed buyer confidence even with the typical seasonal slowdowns.

San Diego Housing Market Update: What the Latest Data Tells Us

It seems like everyone I talk to, from first-time homebuyers to seasoned investors, is asking the same question: “What's next for San Diego real estate?” Having watched this market closely for years, I've seen its incredible resilience and unique rhythm. While the broader California market saw some price cool-downs, San Diego continues to hold its own, a testament to our desirable lifestyle and strong underlying demand. Let's dig into the specifics from C.A.R.'s December 2025 report and see what's truly shaping our local real estate journey.

Home Prices: Reaching New Heights

For December 2025, the median price for an existing single-family home in San Diego County rose to a significant $1,000,000. This is a 1.0% increase from November 2025's $990,000 and a 2.6% jump from December 2024's $975,000. These numbers tell me that even as California's statewide median price experienced a slight dip both month-over-month and year-over-year, San Diego demonstrated its strength.

What does this mean for you? If you’re a homeowner, your investment has likely appreciated, adding to your equity. For prospective buyers, it underlines the continued premium on owning property here. I often hear people surprised by these figures, but when you consider the consistent demand and attractive qualities of San Diego, it makes perfect sense. Our unique blend of weather, economy, and community keeps property values climbing, even during times when other areas might be wavering.

Home Sales: A Mixed Picture

When we look at home sales in San Diego, December 2025 gave us a bit of a mixed bag, but certainly not a cause for alarm. On a month-over-month basis, sales saw a healthy 7.4% increase. This indicates a seasonal uptick as buyers might have rushed to close deals before the final days of the year, possibly spurred by lower mortgage rates we saw come into play.

However, comparing December 2025 to December 2024, sales dipped slightly by 0.6%. This minor year-over-year decline in sales isn't unique to San Diego; many areas are still adjusting to higher interest rates compared to the ultra-low rates of a few years ago. From my perspective, this isn't a sign of a market slowdown, but rather a rebalancing. It suggests a more thoughtful approach from buyers, taking their time rather than jumping into bidding wars. While the overall California market saw a 2.0% year-over-year increase in sales, San Diego’s slight dip could be attributed to already higher price points and perhaps more discerning buyers.

Housing Supply: A Slight Easing

Understanding the housing supply is key to grasping market dynamics. San Diego’s Unsold Inventory Index (UII), which tells us how long it would take to sell all available homes at the current sales pace, stood at 2.5 months in December 2025. This is down from 3.2 months in November 2025, but slightly up from 2.3 months in December 2024.

Here’s how I interpret that:

A UII of 2.5 months is still considered a seller's market, as any figure below 5-6 months typically favors sellers.
The month-to-month decrease in inventory suggests that new listings aren't keeping pace with the sales being made, or that some inventory might have been pulled from the market during the holidays.
The slight year-over-year increase in UII, however, indicates that homes are staying on the market a little longer than they did a year ago.

Speaking of how long homes stay on the market, the median number of days a single-family home spent on the market in San Diego was 27.0 days in December 2025. This is actually a slight improvement from 28.0 days in November, but it's up from 24.0 days in December 2024. This trend aligns with the statewide median of 36 days on market, indicating that buyers generally have a bit more time to make decisions now than they did a year ago. This really signals a return to a more normalized transaction pace.

Market Trends: Looking Ahead

The big picture, as reported by C.A.R., highlights a statewide market that “ended the year on a high note,” with falling mortgage rates setting the stage for a “more optimistic 2026.” Our San Diego data largely mirrors this positive sentiment.

Here are some key trends I'm seeing and what they might mean for us:

Mortgage Rates: The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate averaged 6.19% in December, a significant drop from 6.72% a year prior. Lower rates directly translate to increased buying power, making homeownership more accessible for many. I've already noticed renewed interest from buyers who were previously “priced out” when rates were higher.
Affordability: While San Diego's prices remain high, relatively lower interest rates mean monthly payments might be more manageable than they were a few months ago. C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine noted that “housing affordability showed some improvement,” which is a positive sign for our local market as well.
Buyer and Seller Confidence: The modest price gains and stabilizing supply are indicators of a market where both buyers and sellers can feel more confident. Sellers aren't seeing massive appreciation like during the peak pandemic boom, but consistent growth is still valuable. Buyers, on the other hand, are facing less intense competition and slightly more inventory choices.

My take is that San Diego is transitioning from a frenzied seller's market to a more balanced, albeit still competitive, environment. The fundamental demand for housing in our beautiful city isn't going anywhere, but buyers are gaining a bit more leverage. For anyone looking to enter or move within the San Diego housing market, staying informed and working with a knowledgeable local expert is more crucial than ever. The opportunities are there, but they require a strategic approach.

San Diego Housing Market Forecast for Mid-2026

Now, let's dive right in: what's the San Diego housing market forecast looking like? Based on the latest data, it seems we might see a slight dip in home values in the coming months. Experts predict a slight dip in home values in the near future, but a “crash” is unlikely.

The San Diego-Carlsbad average home value is currently $941,517, showing a 1.6% decrease over the past year, with homes going pending in roughly 19 days. Let's dive deeper into what's influencing this forecast and what it could mean for you.

What the Experts are Saying:

Zillow's latest forecasts provide some insights into the coming months:

Timeframe	Predicted Change in Home Values
July 2025	-0.7%
September 2025	-2.1%
June 2025 – June 2026	-1.5%

This suggests a gradual cooling off of the San Diego housing market over the next year, but not a drastic decline.

How Does San Diego Compare?

Let's see how San Diego's housing market forecast stacks up against other major California metros:

Region	Predicted Change by July 2025	Predicted Change by September 2025	Predicted Change June '25 – June '26
Los Angeles, CA	-0.4%	-0.9%	-1.3%
San Francisco, CA	-1%	-3.2%	-6.1%
Riverside, CA	-0.5%	-1.3%	-0.9%
Sacramento, CA	-0.7%	-2.1%	-3.7%
San Jose, CA	-1%	-2.6%	-4%
Fresno, CA	-0.3%	-1%	-1.2%
Bakersfield, CA	-0.3%	-0.8%	-0.1%
*San Diego, CA*	-0.7%	-2.1%	-1.5%

As you can see, San Diego's projected decline is similar to other major California cities, suggesting a statewide trend towards slightly lower home values. San Francisco is seeing a more significant projected decline.

Nationwide Trends: What's Happening Across the US?

Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is quite optimistic for the future:

Existing Home Sales: He expects a 6% rise in 2025 and a whopping 11% jump in 2026. That would be a great recovery!
New Home Sales: Projected to increase by 10% in 2025 and 5% more in 2026. This will help with the low housing supply.
Median Home Prices: Forecasted to rise by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
Mortgage Rates: Expected to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and potentially drop to 6.1% in 2026. He calls low mortgage rates the “magic bullet” to increasing market activity.

So, Will Home Prices Crash in San Diego?

Based on the data and expert opinions, a housing market crash in San Diego seems unlikely. While Zillow predicts some moderate price softening in the short term, the overall market seems to be stabilizing. Demand remains relatively high, and experts are predicting positive growth over the long-term. Mortgage rates may come down in the future, which historically has pushed home prices up and made it easier for people to buy houses.

My Take:

I believe the San Diego housing market will likely experience a gentle correction rather than a crash. The area remains highly desirable. If mortgage rates drop as predicted, we could see a resurgence in buyer activity. If you're looking at buying, now might be a good time to get in while prices are slightly down. And for sellers, understanding these trends can help you price your home competitively.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Following the trends outlined by NAR, a reasonable forecast for the San Diego housing market in 2026 would be a period of moderate growth. We could see an increase in home sales and a continued, although slower, rise in median home prices assuming mortgage rates hold steady or decline as predicted. I expect housing inventory to start playing catch up with demand.

San Diego-Carlsbad Housing Forecast

July 2025

🏠

Median List Price

$949,667

Reflects current market demand as of June 2025.

⏱️

Median Days to Pending

19 Days

Homes are selling in around 19 days on average.

📊

For Sale Inventory

8,020

Active listings available as of June 2025.

📥

New Listings

2,891

New listings added in June 2025.

💰

Median Sale Price

$898,333

Sales price data as of May 2025.

📈

1-Year Market Forecast

-1.5%

Expected growth from June 2025 to June 2026.

“San Diego housing market will likely experience a correction in home prices rather than a crash.”

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Bay Area Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

Hold on tight, because understanding the San Francisco Bay Area housing market often feels like riding a roller coaster! After a year of twists and turns, the latest report from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) for December 2025 paints a picture of stabilized prices in the Bay Area but with a cooling sales pace compared to the previous month, indicating a market that's finding its footing but remains incredibly dynamic.

I've been watching this market for years, and what I consistently see is that the Bay Area dances to its own unique beat, often influenced by a complex cocktail of tech industry shifts, fluctuating interest rates, and an ever-present struggle with housing supply. While California as a whole ended 2025 on a somewhat higher note for sales, our local market here in the nine counties of the Bay Area shows a more nuanced story, highlighting its resilience but also its distinct challenges.

SF Bay Area Housing Market Update and Trends

Home Prices: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Let's talk about money, because that's usually the first question on everyone's mind when it comes to Bay Area homes. My read of the C.A.R. data for December 2025 tells me the overall San Francisco Bay Area median home price stood strong at $1,200,000. Interestingly, this figure was unchanged from December 2024, but it did see a 5.9% dip from November 2025. For many, a flat year-over-year price might sound boring, but in a market where prices have historically soared, it suggests a period of normalization after quite a turbulent run.

Delving deeper into the counties offers even more insight:

San Mateo County led the pack with a big jump, seeing its median price rise by 11.6% year-over-year to a hefty $2,058,000. From my vantage point, this county's proximity to major tech hubs continues to fuel demand, making it a hot zone.
San Francisco County also experienced significant price growth, up 10.9% year-over-year to $1,697,500. Even with a monthly dip, the urban core still draws strong interest.
Napa County saw a healthy 5.7% year-over-year increase, reaching $930,000. Demand for lifestyle properties and relative value compared to urban centers likely contributed here.
On the flip side, some counties saw price adjustments:
- Marin County dipped 6.0% year-over-year to $1,465,000.
- Contra Costa County was down 4.1% year-over-year to $839,500.
- Santa Clara County, despite its tech powerhouse status, only saw a modest 1.1% year-over-year increase to $1,830,000, though it did experience a 5.4% monthly decline.

What this tells me is that while the overall Bay Area median price looks stable, it's really an average masking diverse movements within the individual counties. Location, as always, is everything, and even subtle shifts in demand or supply can create significant local ripples.

Home Sales: A Glimmer of Growth Amidst Seasonal Slowdown

When we look at home sales, the Bay Area had a bit of a mixed bag in December 2025. Sales were up a modest 2.0% compared to December 2024, which is a positive sign for the end of the year. However, aligning with typical seasonal patterns and possibly exacerbated by late-year economic uncertainties, we saw a noticeable 9.3% month-over-month decline in sales from November. This isn't unusual for the holiday season, but it's something I always keep an eye on to see if it carries into the new year.

Here’s how our individual Bay Area counties performed in terms of sales:

Some counties recorded impressive year-over-year sales boosts:
- San Mateo County skyrocketed with a 25.0% increase.
- Sonoma County saw sales jump by ***19.6%***.
- San Francisco County wasn't far behind with a 17.9% surge.
- Contra Costa County posted a solid 3.8% gain.
However, other areas experienced a cooling:
- Alameda County had a 5.7% decrease.
- Marin County dipped by ***4.5%***.
- Santa Clara County recorded an 8.9% decline.

My takeaway from this is that while statewide sales are generally on the mend, specific Bay Area counties are experiencing varying levels of buyer activity. It suggests that while some buyers are jumping back into the market, others are still hesitant, possibly waiting for more favorable interest rates or more inventory.

Housing Supply: A Tighter Squeeze in the Bay Area

This is where the Bay Area truly differs from much of the state, and it’s a critical factor that often supports our higher prices. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII) for the San Francisco Bay Area in December 2025 was a very tight 1.6 months. To put that in perspective, the state average was 2.7 months. This means if no new homes came on the market, the existing inventory would be sold out in just over a month and a half. This tight supply is a constant force shaping our market.

We also saw the median number of days homes spent on the market (DOM) for the Bay Area in December increase to 29 days, which is up from 26 days a year prior and 25 days in November. While still relatively quick, this slight slowdown could reflect buyers taking more time or being more selective.

Looking at inventory and time on market by county:

The markets are particularly fast in tech-centric areas:
- Santa Clara County: UII of 1.0 month, DOM of just 14 days.
- San Mateo County: UII of 1.0 month, DOM of 15 days.
- Alameda County: UII of 1.3 months, DOM of 19 days.
Other counties felt a bit slower, offering potentially more breathing room for buyers:
- Napa County: UII of 4.4 months, DOM of 87 days.
- Marin County: UII of 1.5 months, but a longer DOM of 86.5 days.
- Sonoma County: UII of 2.4 months, DOM of 77 days.

My opinion is that our chronically low inventory across most Bay Area counties will continue to act as a floor for prices, despite other market pressures. It ensures that desirable properties in popular areas continue to generate interest, even if the frantic bidding wars of previous years have somewhat subsided.

Mortgage Rates and What It Means for You

A significant piece of good news for prospective buyers came from mortgage rates. In December 2025, the 30-year fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.19% statewide, a welcomed drop from 6.72% in December 2024. Lower rates mean more buying power, and in an expensive area like the Bay Area, every fraction of a point makes a significant difference in monthly payments. This downward trend in rates is a key ingredient encouraging buyers to re-enter the market and could help sustain sales momentum into the new year.

Market Trends: What's Next for the Bay Area?

C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski noted that lower rates and easing price growth are “setting the stage for a more optimistic 2026.” C.A.R.'s Chief Economist Jordan Levine also pointed to improving housing affordability and growing supply encouraging more buyers.

From my perspective, while this statewide optimism is encouraging, the San Francisco Bay Area housing market update demands a more nuanced outlook. We have:

Stable overall prices with noticeable county-level variation.
Rebounding sales year-over-year but with recent monthly slowdowns.
Critically low inventory (except for a few specific counties) that fuels competition.
More favorable mortgage rates providing a much-needed boost to affordability.

The sales-price-to-list-price ratio statewide was 97.9% in December 2025, down from 98.7% a year prior. This suggests that buyers have a bit more room to negotiate than they did previously, which is a significant shift in a market accustomed to over-asking offers. While we don't have this exact figure for the Bay Area specifically, given our lower inventory, I'd expect our local ratio to be closer to 100% in the most competitive areas.

Looking ahead, I anticipate a cautiously optimistic 2026 for the Bay Area. The slight moderation we saw in prices and the increase in days on market might give buyers a little more breathing room, but the fundamental challenge of limited supply will continue to define our market.

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for Mid-2026: Will Prices Drop?

While a crash isn't likely, expect a continued cooling trend through mid-2026. According to the latest data, the Bay Area Housing Market Forecast points towards moderate price declines in the near term, especially when compared to other regions in the state. I have prepared an in-depth analysis about the recent forecast to help you navigate the real estate situation.

The average home value in the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward area currently sits around $1,152,144, which is down about 2.5% over the past year according to Zillow.

What the Numbers are Saying: Bay Area Predictions

Zillow releases regular forecasts, and the latest provides a glimpse into where they see the market headed. Here’s a simplified breakdown of their Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) forecast for the San Francisco area, as of June 30, 2025:

Forecast Period	Predicted Bay Area Home Value Change
July 31, 2025	Decrease of 1.0%
September 30, 2025	Decrease of 3.2%
June 30, 2026	Decrease of 6.1%

These numbers suggest that we may see a gradual dip in property values in the region through June 2026.

Bay Area vs. The Rest of California: A Comparative View

Alright, so the Bay Area is expected to cool down. But how does that compare to other parts of California? Let's take a quick peek:

Region	Home Value Change (July 2025)	Home Value Change (Sep 2025)	Home Value Change (June 2026)
San Francisco, CA	-1.0%	-3.2%	-6.1%
Los Angeles, CA	-0.4%	-0.9%	-1.3%
Riverside, CA	-0.5%	-1.3%	-0.9%
San Diego, CA	-0.7%	-2.1%	-1.5%
Sacramento, CA	-0.7%	-2.1%	-3.7%
San Jose, CA	-1.0%	-2.6%	-4.0%
Fresno, CA	-0.3%	-1.0%	-1.2%
Bakersfield, CA	-0.3%	-0.8%	-0.1%

As you can see, the Bay Area is expected to have a relatively larger decrease in home values compared to other major California cities like Los Angeles and San Diego. Specifically, San Francisco is expected to see more intense dips in value compared to Sacramento and San Jose.

National Trends & the “Magic Bullet”

It's not just a local story. What's happening across the country also impacts us. Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors( NAR), has signaled brighter prospects for the U.S. Housing market, with existing home sales predicted to rise by 6% in 2025 and by 11% in 2026. New home sales are also expected to climb, growing by 10% and 5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. He sees mortgage rates as a “magic bullet” – lower rates could really boost buyer interest and make homes more affordable. Median home prices are forecasted to rise by 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.

Yun projects average mortgage rates of 6.4% in the second half of 2025, dropping to 6.1% in 2026.

Will the Bottom Fall Out? My Take

Here's my personal take based on years of watching this market. A major crash is unlikely. The Bay Area still has strong demand, limited inventory, and a thriving economy. However, affordability is a huge issue. Higher interest rates and general economic uncertainty are definitely putting pressure on prices.

I think we'll see a correction, not a collapse. That means prices will likely continue to fall moderately for the next year or so, but they won't plummet to pre-pandemic levels.

Looking Ahead to 2026: My Prediction

Predicting the future is always tricky, but here's my educated guess for 2026:

The slide will slow down significantly in the second half of 2026.
Areas with highly-priced homes that are unaffordable may see continued price stagnation.
If interest rates come down as predicted, we could see a bit of a rebound towards the end of the year.

Ultimately, the Bay Area housing market forecast suggests a period of adjustment. If you're a buyer, this could be an opportunity to get a better deal. If you're a seller, be realistic about pricing and prepared for a longer selling timeline which will require a longer period of time to sell.

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Los Angeles Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

Is the Los Angeles real estate market finally taking a breather, or is it still holding its breath? If you've been wondering about buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on property values in our vibrant city, you're not alone. The latest numbers for December 2025 tell us a compelling story: the Los Angeles housing market wrapped up the year with a slight cool-down in median home prices, but surprisingly robust home sales, hinting at a more inviting and stable market for 2026.

Los Angeles Housing Market Update: What's Shaking in SoCal?

The housing market in Los Angeles is always a hot topic, filled with unique challenges and opportunities. Unlike other parts of the country, our local dynamics are often influenced by a mix of high demand, limited space, and global economic currents. Let's dive into the specifics, using the recent insights from the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.), to understand what truly happened as 2025 came to a close.

Home Prices: A Closer Look at What You'll Pay

If you've felt like home prices in LA have been climbing relentlessly, December 2025 offered a slight pause. According to C.A.R.'s report, the median price for an existing single-family home in Los Angeles County in December 2025 was $890,910. This represents:

A month-over-month drop of 5.5% from November 2025's $942,610.
A year-over-year decrease of 2.4% from December 2024's $912,370.

Looking at the broader Los Angeles Metro Area, the median price was $807,540, showing a similar, though less steep, trend:

Down 1.9% from November 2025.
Down 1.0% from December 2024.

Now, why is this important? My immediate thought when I saw these figures was that while any dip might sound alarming, it’s actually a sign of the market adjusting. For potential buyers, this could mean less aggressive bidding wars and perhaps a moment to catch your breath. For sellers, it might signify that the peak frenzy has eased, requiring more strategic pricing.

C.A.R.'s Chief Economist, Jordan Levine, noted that “housing affordability showed some improvement in the fourth quarter.” From my perspective, this price adjustment, paired with lower interest rates (which we’ll get to), is precisely what many prospective Angelenos have been waiting for. It doesn't mean prices are crashing; it means they're finding a more sustainable level. We're stepping away from the almost unbelievable spikes we saw in recent years.

Home Sales: Buzzing or Stalling?

Despite the slight dip in prices, the number of homes changing hands in Los Angeles actually picked up speed. This is where December's report truly surprised many, especially considering it's typically a slower time of year.

For Los Angeles County, home sales saw:

A significant 20.2% jump in December from November 2025.
A modest 0.9% increase compared to December 2024.

And the Los Angeles Metro Area wasn't far behind, with sales up:

15.0% month-over-month.
2.2% year-over-year.

To me, these numbers highlight a crucial point: demand for living in LA is still very strong. Even with prices pulling back a little, people are still eager to make Los Angeles their home. This surge in sales, especially month-over-month, suggests that buyers who might have been sitting on the sidelines due to high interest rates or intense competition are now making their move. Tamara Suminski, C.A.R. President, put it well, saying, “As price growth eased toward the end of the year and mortgage rates fell to near-three-year lows, the stage is set for a more optimistic 2026.” I completely agree; this shows renewed buyer confidence.

Housing Supply: Are There More Homes on the Block?

The magic word in real estate often comes down to “inventory.” For Los Angeles, the housing supply paints a picture of stabilization rather than dramatic shifts.

Let's look at the Unsold Inventory Index, which tells us how long it would take to sell all currently available homes at the current sales pace:

Los Angeles County: 2.8 months in December 2025. This is down from 3.8 months in November 2025, but just slightly up from 2.7 months in December 2024.
Los Angeles Metro Area: 2.9 months in December 2025. This is down from 3.9 months in November 2025, and flat compared to 2.9 months in December 2024.

This tells me that while the overall statewide active listings still saw a year-over-year increase, the pace of that increase is slowing down. For us in Los Angeles, an inventory of around 2.8-2.9 months is still considered a pretty tight market, favoring sellers. However, coupled with the increase in sales, it suggests that homes aren't sitting around for too much longer.

The median number of days a single-family home took to sell in Los Angeles County was 33 days in December 2025, which is the same as November 2025 but up from 29 days in December 2024. For the Los Angeles Metro Area, it was 36 days, up from 33 days a year prior. Properties are taking a little longer to sell than a year ago, but not excessively so. This slight stretch is healthier, allowing buyers a bit more time to make a thoughtful decision rather than having to jump immediately.

Market Trends: What's Driving the Numbers?

So, what's really fueling these shifts? For me, a few key factors stand out:

Mortgage Rates: This is a big one. The 30-year fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.19 percent in December, a noticeable drop from 6.72 percent in December 2024. Lower rates bring down monthly payments, opening the door for more qualified buyers. This shift in mortgage rates is a huge sigh of relief for many, and I’ve seen this personally reflected in the renewed energy from clients.
Seasonality: December is usually a slower month, so the jump in sales is particularly telling. It shows that even with holidays, motivated buyers were out there.
Affordability Gains: C.A.R.'s report directly mentions improved affordability in Q4. This isn't just about lower prices but also the combined effect of slightly more inventory and lower interest rates. While LA will always be a pricy market, any improvement helps.
Sales-Price-to-List-Price Ratio: Statewide, this ratio was 97.9 percent in December 2025. This means sellers are, on average, getting about 97.9% of their last asking price. This figure is slightly down from 98.7% in December 2024, implying that buyers have a bit more room to negotiate than before. In my conversations with agents, this is exactly what we're seeing on the ground in Los Angeles – fewer bidding wars and more consideration given to offers below asking.

My Takeaway: The Los Angeles market, specifically in December 2025, appears to be settling into a more balanced state. We're seeing less aggressive price growth, more buyers stepping in because of attractive rates, and a manageable level of inventory. This isn't the wild west of two years ago, nor is it a market in freefall. It feels like a mature market finding its rhythm.

Looking Ahead: What Does 2026 Hold?

Based on these trends and C.A.R.'s optimistic outlook, I believe Los Angeles is headed for a year with more stability and perhaps slightly more opportunity for buyers. While the glamour and appeal of LA won't ever truly make it a “buyers' market” in the traditional sense, the current climate suggests that carefully planned moves, whether selling or buying, could be more successful.

If you’re a buyer, paying close attention to interest rate fluctuations could give you an edge. If you’re considering selling, realistic pricing and a well-prepared home will be more important than ever. The key, as always in real estate, is to stay informed and work with someone who understands the nuances of our unique Los Angeles market.

Los Angeles Housing Market Forecast: Will Prices Rise or Fall?

You're probably wondering what's going to happen with prices. The Los Angeles housing market forecast suggests a slight decrease over the next year. While the national real estate market may pick up, Los Angeles specifically will likely see some downward pressure on home values. Let's dig into the details and see what factors are shaping the future of housing in LA.

Currently, the average home value in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim area is $972,837. That's up about 1.1% from last year, which isn't a huge jump. Homes are going pending pretty quickly, in about 20 days. But, is this trend expected to continue?

According to Zillow's latest projections, here's what they see happening in the Los Angeles housing market over the next year:

Timeframe	Predicted Home Value Change
July 2025	-0.4%
September 2025	-0.9%
June 2025 to June 2026	-1.3%

Basically, Zillow anticipates a gradual cooling off. While it's not a crash, they believe values will edge down a bit.

How Does L.A. Compare To Other California Markets?

Okay, Los Angeles might see a slight dip. But what about other parts of California? Here's a quick look at how the forecast compares to other major metro areas using the same forecast data:

Region	Predicted Home Value Change (June 2025 – June 2026)
San Francisco, CA	-6.1%
San Diego, CA	-1.5%
Riverside, CA	-0.9%
Sacramento, CA	-3.7%
San Jose, CA	-4.0%
Fresno, CA	-1.2%
Bakersfield, CA	-0.1%
Los Angeles, CA	*-1.3%*

As you can see, Los Angeles' forecasted decline is less than some other California cities, but still a bit downward.

What About the National Picture?

While the Los Angeles housing market faces a slight correction, the national outlook, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is more positive. Their Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, thinks “brighter days may be on the horizon.” Here's what he's predicting:

Existing home sales are expected to rise by 6% in 2025 and 11% in 2026.
New home sales are projected to climb by 10% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.
Median home prices are forecasted to continue increasing modestly, with a rise of 3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026.
Mortgage rates are anticipated to average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and dip further to 6.1% in 2026.

He considers lower mortgage rates the “magic bullet” for boosting the market.

Will Home Prices Crash in Los Angeles?

Based on these forecasts, a crash seems unlikely. While there seems to be a real estate market slowdown and a price correction, a significant crash seems unlikely. The Los Angeles market is still competitive, and demand remains relatively strong. A slight dip in prices could even be a good thing, making homes more affordable for potential buyers.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Predicting beyond a year is always tricky, but if the NAR's predictions hold true, the Los Angeles housing market could see a slight recovery in 2026. With potentially lower mortgage rates and a growing national market, LA could mirror this trend, evening out back around where it is now. However, local economic conditions and housing supply will play a significant role. It's best to keep an eye on the data and consult with a real estate professional for the most up-to-date advice.

Should You Invest in the Los Angeles Real Estate Market in 2025?

Los Angeles has historically been a sought-after real estate market due to its desirable location, diverse economy, and strong demand for housing. Here are some key points to consider:

Market Stability

Los Angeles has a relatively stable real estate market with a history of consistent, long-term appreciation in property values. This stability is driven by factors such as the city's status as an economic hub, its thriving job market, and the limited supply of land for new construction. However, it's essential to note that like any market, there can be fluctuations, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

Property Appreciation

Over the long term, Los Angeles properties have typically appreciated in value. While there can be short-term fluctuations, investing with a long-term perspective can allow you to benefit from the city's overall property value growth.

Rental Income Potential

Los Angeles has a strong rental market, with a high demand for both single-family and multi-family rentals. This presents an opportunity for investors to generate rental income. However, rental income potential can vary depending on the neighborhood and property type.

Consideration for Property Type

Investors in Los Angeles can choose between single-family and multi-family properties. Single-family homes often provide more predictable rental income and potential for appreciation, while multi-family properties can offer multiple income streams but come with added management responsibilities.

The Housing Shortage Dilemma

Los Angeles is no stranger to the housing shortage dilemma. As its population continues to grow, driven by a robust job market and desirable lifestyle, the housing market struggles to keep pace. The consequences are multifold, affecting both renters and potential homeowners. High demand has led to escalating rental costs and home prices, making housing less affordable for many.

Investor's Paradise: The Demand-Supply Gap

For real estate investors, this gap between demand and supply represents a significant opportunity. The housing shortage has created a strong demand for rental properties, offering the potential for attractive rental income and return on investment. Here's why Los Angeles is an investor's paradise:

Rental Income: High demand for housing has driven up rental rates, providing investors with the prospect of steady rental income.
Property Appreciation: Despite the challenges, Los Angeles properties have shown a history of appreciating in value over the long term.
Population Growth: Los Angeles continues to attract new residents due to its economic opportunities and lifestyle. This demographic growth fuels the demand for housing.
Construction Gap: Construction in Los Angeles hasn't kept pace with population growth, intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.

Economic Diversity

Los Angeles is renowned for its economic diversity. The region's economy spans various sectors, including entertainment, technology, aerospace, healthcare, and tourism. The presence of major corporations, such as those in the entertainment and tech industries, has been a key driver of job creation and economic growth. The city's thriving tourism industry, centered around attractions like Hollywood and Disneyland, also plays a significant role in generating revenue and job opportunities.

Job Growth

Los Angeles has consistently experienced job growth, making it an attractive destination for job seekers. The city's diverse economic landscape provides opportunities in various fields. It is a hub for creative industries, with Hollywood serving as the epicenter of the global entertainment industry. Additionally, the tech sector has witnessed substantial growth in Silicon Beach, an area on the west side of Los Angeles, home to numerous tech startups and established companies.

The presence of educational institutions, including the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the California State University, Northridge, contributes to research, development, and a well-educated workforce. The healthcare sector, with renowned institutions like the Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, further drives job opportunities.

Population Growth

The Los Angeles Metropolitan Area's strong economy and job market have attracted a steady influx of residents. The population of the Los Angeles metro area is projected to be 12,598,000 in 2024, which is a 0.51% increase from 2023. However, the population of Los Angeles County is estimated to be 9,606,925 in 2024, which is a 0.58% decrease from the previous year.

The allure of the city's lifestyle, cultural diversity, and range of amenities has made it a magnet for people from various backgrounds. The region's population growth can be attributed to factors such as:

Job Opportunities: People move to Los Angeles in search of better job prospects and career growth.
Education: The presence of top-tier universities and educational institutions attracts students and faculty from around the world.
Cultural Attractions: The city's vibrant cultural scene, including theaters, museums, and art galleries, appeals to those seeking a rich cultural experience.
Quality of Life: Los Angeles offers a pleasant climate, beautiful landscapes, and recreational opportunities that enhance the quality of life.
Entertainment Industry: The allure of the entertainment industry draws aspiring actors, musicians, and filmmakers to Los Angeles.

As the population continues to grow, the demand for housing and services surges, creating a dynamic environment for real estate investors.

How to Invest in Real Estate in Los Angeles?

Investing in real estate in Los Angeles involves several steps:

1. Research the Market: Begin by thoroughly researching the Los Angeles real estate market. Analyze historical property values, rental trends, and the performance of different neighborhoods.

2. Financial Preparation: Ensure your financial situation is in order. This may include saving for a down payment, understanding your credit score, and securing financing.

3. Property Selection: Choose the type of property you want to invest in, whether it's a single-family home, multi-family building, or another type. Consider your investment goals and budget.

4. Location Matters: Location is critical in Los Angeles. Research neighborhoods and select areas with potential for growth and strong rental demand.

5. Property Management: Decide whether you'll manage the property yourself or hire a property management company. This choice may depend on the number of units and your experience.

6. Legal and Tax Considerations: Understand the legal and tax implications of real estate investing in Los Angeles. Consult with professionals if needed.

Single-Family Rental vs. Multi-Family Investment

When considering whether to invest in single-family or multi-family properties, it's essential to weigh the pros and cons of each:

Single-Family Rental:

Typically lower initial investment.
Easier property management.
Predictable rental income.

Multi-Family Investment:

Multiple income streams.
Potential for higher overall rental income.
More management responsibilities.

The choice between the two depends on your investment goals, budget, and willingness to manage the property. Both can be viable options in the Los Angeles market.

Maximizing Return on Investment

Investors looking to maximize their return on investment (ROI) in Los Angeles should consider the following strategies:

Location Selection: Carefully choose neighborhoods with strong rental demand and potential for property appreciation.
Property Type: Evaluate whether single-family or multi-family properties align with your investment goals and budget.
Property Management: Efficient property management can enhance ROI by reducing vacancies and maintenance costs.
Market Timing: Keep an eye on market trends and consider timing your investment to take advantage of favorable conditions.
Legal and Tax Considerations: Consult with legal and financial experts to ensure you're optimizing your investment from a legal and tax perspective.

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California Housing Market: Forecast and Trends 2026

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

The California housing market ended 2025 on a positive note, with home sales picking up in December compared to both the previous month and the year before. This brings the total sales for the year close to 1% higher than in 2024, suggesting a market finding its footing.

As a real estate enthusiast and someone who's watched this market closely for years, I can tell you that December's numbers, released by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.), offer a promising glimpse into what's next. It wasn't a wild stampede, but a steady stride that signals a potential shift towards a more balanced environment for both buyers and sellers.

California Housing Market Update: A Look at December 2025 and Beyond

Home Sales: Ending on a High Note

Let's talk about the nuts and bolts. In December 2025, we saw a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 288,200 existing, single-family home sales. What does that really mean? It's basically a way to calculate how many homes would sell in a year if the pace we saw in December continued.

This number showed a slight uptick of 0.3% from November and a more significant 2.0% jump from December 2024. While these might seem like small percentages, in a market as vast as California's, they represent quite a few more transactions.

Looking at the big picture for the entire year of 2025, sales were up 0.9% compared to 2024. This is crucial because it shows a consistent, albeit modest, growth throughout the year, not just a fleeting December surge. This kind of steady momentum can build confidence in the market.

What I'm seeing here is resilience. Despite economic uncertainties that tend to make people pause, buyers are still finding their way to the closing table. This tells me that the desire for homeownership in California remains strong.

Home Prices: A Cooling Trend That's Welcome News

Now, let's address the elephant in the room for many: home prices. In December 2025, the statewide median home price dipped slightly to $850,680. This was a 0.4% decrease from November and a 1.2% decrease from December 2024.

This might sound like bad news if you're a homeowner looking for appreciation, but as an observer of the market, I see this as a positive sign that the intense price escalations of previous years are moderating. For most of 2025, price growth had been easing, and this continued into December.

This cooling isn't a crash, but rather a leveling off. For the full year 2025, the annual median home price did increase by about 1.2% compared to 2024. So, while prices dipped month-over-month and year-over-year in December, the overall annual trend still showed modest growth. This is the kind of stability that can help more people afford to buy and build equity.

Why is this price moderation important? It means that homeownership might be inching back into the realm of possibility for more Californians. When prices go up too fast, it pushes people out. A more stable price environment, even with slight dips, can actually make the market healthier in the long run.

Housing Supply: A Slowing Rise

The availability of homes, or housing supply, is a critical piece of the puzzle. In December, the Unsold Inventory Index stood at 2.7 months. This means if no new homes were listed, it would take about 2.7 months to sell all the homes currently on the market.

This index was down from 3.6 months in November, but it was the same as in December 2024. What's more interesting is that while total active listings increased year-over-year for the 23rd consecutive month, the rate of that increase was the smallest since February 2024. This is the eighth month in a row where the growth in inventory has slowed down.

This might seem a bit contradictory. More homes are available than last year, but the growth is slowing. From my perspective, this suggests that while there's still a healthy amount of supply compared to recent years, the market is starting to absorb some of it. Sellers are still listing homes, but the frenzy of new listings might be easing up as we move into the quieter winter months.

Here's what I think this means: We're not facing a severe shortage like we did a few years ago, but the market isn't flooded with homes either. It's leaning towards a more balanced situation, which is generally good for market stability.

Market Trends: Where Do We Go From Here?

Several trends are shaping the California housing market:

Mortgage Rates on the Decline: One of the biggest drivers of activity has been the fluctuation of mortgage rates. In December, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.19%, down from 6.72% in December 2024. When rates drop, it significantly lowers the monthly cost of a mortgage, making homes more affordable and encouraging buyers to jump in. This is a major positive for the market heading into 2026.
Regional Variations: It's crucial to remember that California is not a monolith. Different regions experience different market dynamics.
- The Far North and Central Coast saw the biggest year-over-year sales increases, with double-digit gains.
- The Central Valley, San Francisco Bay Area, and Southern California also saw sales improvements, though more modest.
- On the price side, the Far North and Southern California saw slight year-over-year median price increases, while the Central Valley saw a small drop, and the San Francisco Bay Area's median prices remained unchanged.
Days on Market: Homes are taking a bit longer to sell. The median number of days to sell a single-family home in December was 36 days, up from 31 days in December 2024. This is another indicator that the market is cooling down from its hottest pace and buyers have a little more time to consider their options.
Sales-to-List Price Ratio: This ratio, which shows how close homes are selling to their asking price, was 97.9% in December 2025, down from 98.7% in December 2024. This means homes are selling slightly below asking price on average, again indicating less intense competition for buyers.

A Look Ahead

As we move into 2026, several factors will continue to influence the California housing market. The C.A.R. report suggests optimism. Key figures like C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski and Chief Economist Jordan Levine point to increased buyer opportunities and a healthier, more balanced market.

The combination of easing price growth and falling mortgage rates is a potent mix for potential buyers. While policy uncertainties are always a factor, the overall outlook suggests modest economic growth and continued progress for the housing market.

For those who have been waiting on the sidelines, this period of stabilization could be a prime opportunity. While we're not likely to see a return to the extreme conditions of the past, the current trends point towards a market that is becoming more accessible and predictable.

It's an exciting time to be watching the California real estate scene. We're moving from a seller's frenzy to a more thoughtful, balanced approach, and that's something I believe most people in the market will welcome.

California Housing Market Forecast: What to Expect in 2026

The California housing market is poised for a gentle upturn in 2026, with home sales and the median price expected to inch up slightly. According to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.), we can anticipate existing single-family home sales to reach around 274,400 units, a 2% increase from 2025. The median home price is projected to hit a new record, climbing 3.6% to $905,000. While this might sound like a straightforward prediction, dig a little deeper, and you'll find a more nuanced picture shaped by economic shifts, interest rates, and a slowly improving affordability situation.

My Take on the 2026 Outlook

As someone who's been following the California real estate scene for a while, I can tell you that “inching up” feels like a pretty accurate description. We've seen some wild swings in the past, and frankly, a period of relative stability is what many buyers and sellers are hoping for. C.A.R.'s forecast suggests that stability is on the horizon, but it's not going to be a free-for-all. Affordability is still a major hurdle, but there are glimmers of hope.

A Look at C.A.R.'s Projections

Let's break down what C.A.R. is predicting for the coming years:

Year	SFH Resales (000s)	% Change	Median Price ($)	% Change	Housing Affordability Index (%)	30-Yr FRM (%)
2024	269.2	4.40%	$865,400	6.30%	16%	6.70%
2025p	269.0	-0.10%	$873,900	1.00%	17%	6.60%
2026f	274.4	2.00%	$905,000	3.60%	18%	6.00%

p = projected, f = forecast

As you can see, 2025 is looking like a bit of a holding pattern, with sales essentially flat compared to 2024. However, the median price is still expected to tick up slightly. The real movement, according to this forecast, is in 2026, where we see both sales and prices showing more noticeable, albeit still moderate, growth.

Why the Gentle Climb?

Several factors are expected to contribute to this gradual ascent:

Interest Rates Cooling Down: This is a big one. C.A.R. forecasts the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to drop to 6.0% in 2026. This is a significant improvement from the averages seen in recent years and even the 6.6% projected for 2025. Lower mortgage rates mean more buying power for consumers. Even though it's still higher than pre-pandemic levels, it's a move in the right direction and, importantly, lower than the 50-year historical average of nearly 8%.
Slightly Better Affordability: With lower interest rates and potentially moderate price gains, housing affordability is predicted to inch up. The index is expected to reach 18% in 2026, meaning 18% of households will be able to afford to buy a median-priced home. This is a small but welcome improvement from 16% in 2024 and 17% in 2025. For many Californians, this slight shift could make the dream of homeownership feel a bit more attainable.
Increasing Inventory: The forecast indicates that housing supply will continue to improve, with active listings potentially rising by nearly 10% in 2026. When more homes are available, it can ease some of the intense competition we've seen in the market. This could give buyers a bit more breathing room and potentially moderate intense bidding wars.

What About the Economy?

The housing market doesn't exist in a vacuum. The broader economic picture plays a crucial role.

Slowing GDP Growth: The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2026, around 1%, after a projected 1.3% in 2025.
Job Growth and Unemployment: California's nonfarm job growth is also projected to slow down, with a 0.3% increase in 2026 after a 0.4% rise in 2025. Consequently, the unemployment rate is expected to creep up to 5.8% in 2026 from 5.6% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2024. While a slight increase in unemployment can be concerning, these numbers suggest the job market, while cooling, isn't collapsing.

C.A.R. President Heather Ozur points out that as economic uncertainty begins to clear and mortgage rates decline, housing sentiment should improve. This is a key piece of the puzzle – people are more likely to make big financial decisions like buying a home when they feel more secure about their jobs and the economy.

Potential Roadblocks and Challenges

It wouldn't be wise to paint an entirely rosy picture. The forecast also highlights several challenges that could still impact the market:

Inflation: Inflation is likely to pick up, with the annual average Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to reach 3.0% in 2026, up from 2.8% in 2025. Higher inflation can erode purchasing power and impact what people can afford.
Home Insurance Crisis: The ongoing issues with homeowners insurance in California are a significant concern. Rising premiums and reduced availability of coverage can make homeownership more expensive and less attractive, especially in fire-prone areas.
Trade Tensions: Lingering trade tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners can create economic uncertainty, which can ripple through the housing market.
Stock Market Volatility: A potential stock market bubble could burst, leading to financial instability and affecting the confidence of high-net-worth individuals who are often significant players in luxury real estate markets.

Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine notes that despite these headwinds, the improving lending environment and clearing economic clouds will be key drivers.

What This Means for You

So, what does all this forecast talk mean for you, whether you're looking to buy, sell, or just keep an eye on your investments?

For Buyers: The forecast offers a glimmer of hope. Lower interest rates and a slight increase in inventory in 2026 could make it a more favorable year for buyers than the preceding ones. However, affordability remains a challenge, so smart financial planning and patience will still be crucial. Don't expect a crash, but rather a market that might be slightly less of a seller's dominance.
For Sellers: If you've been holding off, 2026 might present a more opportune time to list your home. With stabilizing prices and rising demand, you could see your property fetch a good price. However, the days of astronomical offers might be behind us, and a more realistic pricing strategy will be important.
For Homeowners: If you own a home in California, the moderate price appreciation suggests that your home equity is likely to continue growing, albeit at a steadier pace than in boom years.

My personal feeling is that California's housing market, given its fundamental strengths in desirability and economic output, will continue to be resilient. The forecast for 2026 suggests a return to a more sustainable growth pattern. It's not a market for speculators looking for quick flips, but for those looking for long-term value and a place to call home, opportunities will likely emerge.

The key takeaway from C.A.R.'s 2026 California Housing Market Forecast is that we're looking at a period of gradual improvement. Sales and prices are projected to rise modestly, driven by falling interest rates and slightly better affordability, while still navigating economic uncertainties and persistent challenges like insurance costs. It's a market that demands a well-informed approach, but one that holds promise for those looking to enter or move within it.

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Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 23: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 10 Basis Points

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

Alright, let's talk about where mortgage rates are at today, January 23rd. If you’re thinking about refinancing, you’ll want to know that the 30-year fixed refinance rate has nudged up by 10 basis points, now sitting at 6.62%, according to Zillow. While this might seem like a tiny blip, these kinds of movements can really make a difference for your wallet over time.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 23: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 10 Basis Points

What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates Right Now?

Here's a quick rundown of the national refinance rates as of January 23, 2026:

Loan Type	Rate	Change from Last Week	Daily Movement (Friday)
30-Year Fixed Refi	6.62%	Up 0.10% (10 bps)	Up 0.01% (6.61% to 6.62%)
15-Year Fixed Refi	5.67%	Steady	N/A
5-Year ARM Refi	7.28%	Up 0.14% (14 bps)	N/A

Source: Zillow

For folks looking to refinance, that 6.62% for a 30-year fixed rate is just a hair higher than last week’s 6.52%. It’s a small bump, but it’s worth understanding what it means for you.

Decoding the “Basis Point” Jargon

So, what exactly is a “basis point”? Think of it like this: one basis point is just a tiny fraction, 0.01%. When we say the rate went up by 10 basis points, that means it increased by 0.10%. It might not sound like much, but on a big loan like a mortgage, even a tenth of a percent can add up.

Let’s break it down with an example. Imagine you’re refinancing a $300,000 loan:

At the slightly lower rate of 6.52%, your monthly payment for principal and interest would be around $1,902.
Now, with the rate at 6.62%, that payment jumps to about $1,920.

That’s an extra $18 per month. Over the life of a 30-year loan, that adds up to a notable $6,480. It’s those figures that really hit home how crucial these rate changes can be when you’re planning your finances.

What This Means for Homeowners Thinking About Refinancing

The fact that the 30-year refinance rate has gone up a bit might make some people pause. If you were on the fence about refinancing, this slight increase could make that decision feel a little less urgent, or perhaps less appealing.

However, I’ve been watching the mortgage market for a while, and it's important to remember that current rates are still a far cry from the peak we saw not too long ago. Back in late 2023 and early 2024, the 30-year refinance rate was often hovering around 7.5%. Compared to those dizzying heights, 6.62% still looks pretty good.

Impact on Your Monthly Budget:
For many families, especially with the cost of everyday things going up, every dollar in the monthly budget counts. A small increase in your refinance rate can mean a slightly tighter squeeze, which might make you think twice about taking on a new loan right now.

Your Home Equity and Current Rate:
If you were lucky enough to lock in an incredibly low rate, say between 3% and 4%, during the pandemic boom years (2020-2021), refinancing now would probably not make sense for you. The current rates, even with this small uptick, are still significantly higher than what you’re already paying.

On the other hand, if your current mortgage has a rate that’s higher than, say, 7%, then even with today’s slightly higher refinance rates, you could still be looking at some decent savings by switching. It's all about comparing your current situation to what's available.

A Nod to Stability: The 15-Year Fixed Rate

It’s great to see that the 15-year fixed refinance rate has remained steady at 5.67%. This is often where you find a sweet spot for borrowers who want to pay off their mortgage faster.

While the monthly payments on a 15-year loan are usually higher than on a 30-year loan, the interest you save over the years can be enormous. If you can comfortably swing those larger payments, refinancing into a 15-year mortgage can save you tens of thousands of dollars in interest. It’s a trade-off between a higher monthly bill now and significant long-term savings.

A Closer Look at Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs)

The 5-year Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) refinance rate has seen a more noticeable jump, climbing to 7.28% – that’s up by 14 basis points. This is something to pay attention to.

ARMs are known for having lower starting interest rates. This lower initial rate can be attractive for borrowers who plan to move or refinance again before the fixed period ends. However, the risk is that after the initial fixed period (in this case, five years), the interest rate can change, going up or down with market conditions.

The recent rise in ARM rates suggests that lenders are anticipating some continued ups and downs in the market, or perhaps expecting borrowing costs to stay elevated for longer. If you’re considering an ARM, it’s crucial to really understand the potential for future rate increases and whether you can handle those higher payments if they happen.

Putting Mortgage Rates in the Bigger Picture

It's not just random numbers moving around; these mortgage rates are influenced by a lot of bigger economic forces.

The Federal Reserve: What the Fed does with interest rates has a ripple effect. Even though they’ve been slowing down the pace of rate hikes, inflation is still a concern, and that can keep long-term borrowing costs, like mortgages, a bit higher than we might like.
The Bond Market: Mortgage rates often move hand-in-hand with something called the 10-year Treasury yield. When that yield goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice versa. We’ve seen some back-and-forth action in this area early in 2026.
Home Demand: Even with rates a bit higher, the desire for housing in certain areas is still strong. This persistent demand keeps the refinancing market active, even if it’s not the frenzy we saw during the ultra-low rate period.

Your Refinancing Game Plan

So, what should you take away from all this as you consider your options?

30-Year Fixed: At 6.62%, it’s a little pricier than last week, but still much more affordable than the peaks of recent years. It remains a popular choice for its predictable, lower monthly payments.
15-Year Fixed: Holding steady at 5.67%, this is a fantastic option if you’re looking to build equity faster and save a bundle on interest over time, and can manage the higher monthly payments.
5-Year ARM: Climbing to 7.28%, this signals that caution might be the best approach for now. Weigh the short-term savings against the potential for higher payments down the road.

Latest Buzz from the Mortgage World

Refinance Boom Continues: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a huge jump in refinance applications, up 183% compared to this time last year. This surge is largely due to people looking to take advantage of the drop from the 2025 rate highs.
Economic Ripples: Recent swings in the market have been linked to global events, like discussions at Davos and shifts in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. There was even a brief dip in rates to a three-year low of 6.18% in mid-January, sparked by a surprise announcement from the Trump administration, before they settled back.
Fed's Cautious Pause: After cutting rates three times in late 2025, the Federal Reserve decided to hold off on further cuts in January 2026. The reason? Inflation is still being a bit stubborn.

What Experts Are Saying About 2026

Looking ahead, here’s what many financial experts are forecasting:

Rates Staying Put (Mostly): For the first few months of 2026, many economists expect rates to stay in a pretty tight range, likely between 6.25% and 6.50%.
Breaking the 6% Mark? Some analysts are optimistic that the 30-year fixed rate could finally dip below 6% later this year. If we see a recession or inflation continues its downward trend, some even predict rates could fall as low as 5.5%.

My take on strategy: If you can find a refinance option that lowers your current rate by at least half a percentage point to a full percentage point, it’s probably worth starting the process. However, if your current rate is below 5% – you're in a fantastic position, and holding tight might be the smartest move.

Final Thoughts on Refinancing Today

It’s understandable that a small increase in the 30-year refinance rate might make some homeowners hesitate. But from my perspective, the overall picture for mortgage rates is still relatively balanced, especially when you consider how high they were not that long ago.

My advice is always to sit down with your financial planner or a trusted mortgage professional and look at your specific situation. Consider your current mortgage terms, what your financial goals are, and how much risk you’re comfortable taking on.

If you’re someone paying a higher interest rate right now, refinancing could still unlock significant savings, even with these slight rate adjustments. For others, especially those with those super-low pandemic-era rates, patience might be the key. The market is always changing, and waiting for the right moment can sometimes be the most rewarding strategy.

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Mortgage Rates Plunge Nearly 1% in a Year, Sliding From 6.96% to 6.06%

January 23, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

Yes, you read that right! The significant drop in mortgage rates from 6.96% to around 6.06% over the past year is major news for anyone dreaming of owning a home or looking to refinance. This isn't just a small dip; it's a considerable shift that could put homeownership within reach for more people and save existing homeowners a substantial amount of money. As of mid-January 2026, long-term mortgage rates reached their lowest point in three years, marking a welcome turn of events for the housing market.

It signals a strong opportunity for buyers and a chance for existing homeowners to potentially lower their monthly payments. Let's dive into what this all means for you.

Mortgage Rates Plunge Nearly 1% in a Year, Sliding From 6.96% to 6.06%

Why Are Mortgage Rates Dropping So Much?

It’s not an accident that mortgage rates have fallen so dramatically. Several factors are at play, making this a particularly opportune time to consider a mortgage.

Government Intervention: A Big Push for Lower Rates

One of the most significant drivers of the recent decline was a strategic move by the government. In early January 2026, President Donald Trump announced a * $200 billion mortgage-backed securities buyback plan*. When the government buys these securities, it injects money into the mortgage market and, in turn, helps to lower borrowing costs for everyone. This kind of decisive action can have a powerful and immediate impact on mortgage rates, and we’re seeing that effect clearly now. It's a direct effort to make homes more affordable, and it seems to be working.

Market Influences: Keeping a Close Eye on the 10-Year Treasury

Beyond direct government action, mortgage rates are also closely tied to broader economic indicators. A key benchmark we always look at is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Think of this as a signal of what investors expect for the economy and interest rates in the future. When the 10-year Treasury yield is low, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. Recently, the 10-year Treasury yield has been hovering around 4.25%, which has helped keep those mortgage rates down. It’s a delicate dance between government policy and the natural forces of the financial markets.

The Real Financial Impact: What This Drop Means for Your Wallet

This isn't just about numbers on a screen; it translates into real savings. Let's break down the financial impact of this rate reduction.

As data from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® shows, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has seen a significant drop.

Here’s a snapshot of the recent trends as of January 22, 2026:

Mortgage Type	Average Rate (Mid-Jan 2026)	Rate (Jan 22, 2026)	1-Week Change	1-Year Change	52-Week Low	52-Week High
30-Year Fixed-Rate	6.06%	6.09%	+0.03%	-0.87%	6.06%	6.95%
15-Year Fixed-Rate	5.38%	5.44%	+0.06%	-0.72%	5.38%	6.12%

Notice how the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.06% in mid-January 2026, a substantial decrease from the 6.96% seen exactly one year prior. Even with a slight uptick to 6.09% by January 22, 2026, the savings are undeniable.

Mortgage Rates Plunge Nearly 1% in a Year, — ***Source: Freddie Mac***

Let's look at a concrete example:

Imagine you're looking to buy a $400,000 home and need a mortgage of $320,000.

At a 6.96% rate (last year): Your monthly principal and interest payment would be approximately $2,116.
At a 6.06% rate (this year): Your monthly principal and interest payment drops to roughly $1,933.

That's a difference of nearly $183 per month! Over the 30-year life of the loan, this can add up to a colossal saving of nearly $66,000. That’s a significant chunk of change that could go towards renovations, investments, or simply enjoying life a little more.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage has also seen impressive drops, falling from 6.16% a year ago to around 5.38% in mid-January 2026. While the monthly payments are higher on a shorter term, the overall interest paid is considerably less, making it an attractive option for those who can afford it.

Who Benefits Most from These Lower Rates?

Firstly, first-time homebuyers are in a prime position. For years, the rising cost of homes coupled with high interest rates made the dream of owning a home feel unattainable for many. This drop in rates makes those monthly payments more manageable, potentially bringing more people into the market and making their first home purchase a reality.

Secondly, existing homeowners looking to refinance have a golden opportunity. If you have a mortgage with a rate significantly higher than today's offerings, refinancing could lower your monthly payments, free up cash flow, and even shorten your loan term if you choose. It’s a smart financial move that could save you tens of thousands of dollars.

And for those considering buying a larger or more expensive home, the lower rates mean you might be able to afford more house than you previously thought possible, without a drastic increase in your monthly outlay.

My Take: This is a Buyer's Market Moment

From my perspective, this isn't just a statistical blip; it's a strong signal that the housing market is becoming more accessible. While the economy is improving, which can sometimes push rates up, the government's intervention has created a temporary but significant advantage.

This is precisely why I always advise my clients to shop around for the best rate. Even a small difference in interest rates can lead to massive savings over time. Getting quotes from multiple lenders is crucial. Don't just go with the first one you talk to. Compare offers carefully, and don't be afraid to negotiate.

What to Keep in Mind Next

While these rates are fantastic, it’s important to remember that they can fluctuate. The 10-year Treasury yield can move, and economic conditions can change. If you're thinking about buying or refinancing, it's best to act while the timing is favorable.

Here are my key takeaways for you:

Act Now: Take advantage of these lower rates while they’re available.
Shop Around: Get multiple quotes from different lenders.
Get Pre-Approved: This helps you understand your budget and shows sellers you’re serious.
Consider Your Options: Think about whether a 15-year or 30-year mortgage best suits your financial goals.
Work with a Trusted Advisor: A good mortgage broker or loan officer can guide you through the process.

This period of lower mortgage rates is a significant development, offering tangible financial benefits to a wide range of individuals. It's a moment where the dream of homeownership is becoming more attainable, and savings are readily available for those looking to optimize their finances.

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What Pending Home Sales Are Signaling About the Housing Market in 2026

January 22, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

So, you're wondering what all the buzz about “pending home sales” really means for the housing market down the road, specifically in 2026? Well, the latest data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) gives us some pretty clear clues. Based on their December 2025 report, the significant drop in pending home sales points towards a housing market in 2026 that will likely see continued moderation, potentially with tighter inventory but also with cautious optimism as sales might start to stabilize.

What Pending Home Sales Are Signaling About the Housing Market in 2026

Looking at pending home sales is like looking at the first blush of dawn. It doesn't tell us the whole story of the day, but it definitely hints at what's to come. When fewer people are signing purchase agreements, it’s a signal that something is shifting. It’s not a doomsday prediction, but it’s a heads-up that we might not be in for the same kind of frenzy we’ve seen in recent years.

The December Dip: A Deeper Dive

Let's break down what the December 2025 NAR report actually told us, because it's packed with information.

Nationally, things cooled off. Pending home sales saw a 9.3% decrease from the month before and a 3.0% decrease compared to the same time last year. This isn't just a little wobble; it's a noticeable dip.
No region was left untouched. Every single one of the four major regions in the U.S. experienced a month-over-month decrease in pending sales. This widespread slowdown suggests it's not just a local blip but a broader trend.

Regional Breakdown: A Mixed Bag

While the overall trend was down, looking at the regions gives us a more nuanced picture.

Northeast and Midwest: These areas saw the biggest drops, with month-over-month decreases of 11.0% and 14.9% respectively. Year-over-year, they also declined significantly. This could indicate factors like affordability challenges or localized economic slowdowns are hitting these markets harder.
West: Also experiencing a substantial month-over-month drop of 13.3%, the West saw a year-over-year decrease of 5.1%. This region has often been at the forefront of market shifts, so its significant slowdown is worth noting.
The South: A Glimmer of Hope? Interestingly, the South was the only region to see a year-over-year increase in pending home sales, albeit a modest 2.0%. Month-over-month, it did see a 4.0% decrease, but the fact that it's still stronger year-over-year compared to other regions suggests some resilience. This is something I’ll be keeping a close eye on, as migration patterns and evolving economic conditions can make certain areas more attractive than others.

Why the Drop? It's Not Just the Weather!

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun pointed out something crucial: while winter weather and holidays can affect December numbers, the trend is worth watching. He highlighted that even after accounting for these seasonal quirks, the drop in contract signings could be signaling a real shift.

From my perspective, several factors are likely at play:

Affordability Squeeze: Even with some interest rate fluctuations, home prices in many areas have been on a strong upward trajectory. For many potential buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, affordability remains a major hurdle. When homes are priced out of reach, fewer people can get to the point of signing a contract.
Inventory Crunch: This is a big one. Yun mentioned that closing activity increased, but new listings did not keep pace, leading to a decrease in inventory. In December, there were only 1.18 million homes on the market, matching the lowest inventory level of 2025. When buyers see fewer options, they tend to hesitate. It’s human nature; we want to feel like we have choices before making such a massive decision. This lack of choice can dampen enthusiasm and lead to fewer pending sales.
Buyer Hesitation: With economic uncertainties and what feels like constant news about potential shifts, some buyers might be taking a more cautious approach. They might be waiting for more stability or a better selection of homes before committing.

What About 2026? My Take

Looking ahead to 2026, based on this pending home sales data and my own experience, here's what I anticipate:

Moderation Over Meltdown: The significant drop in pending sales doesn't necessarily mean the market is about to crash. Instead, it likely signals a move towards a more balanced market. This means fewer bidding wars, potentially slightly longer days on market, and a return to more normal negotiation processes.
Inventory Remains Key: The inventory issue is truly the elephant in the room. If new construction doesn't pick up or more existing homeowners don't decide to sell, the low inventory will continue to be a major constraint. This could mean that even with fewer pending sales each month, prices might not see dramatic drops; they might just stabilize or see slower appreciation.
Interest Rate Influence: While not directly in the pending sales report, interest rates are always a massive factor. If rates continue to hold steady or even dip slightly in 2026, it could provide a much-needed boost to buyer demand, even with limited inventory. Conversely, any significant uptick could further dampen activity.
Regional Divergence: I expect to see continued divergence between different regions. The South’s relative strength might continue, while some of the more expensive markets on the coasts could face greater affordability challenges. Areas with strong job growth and relatively lower price points will likely remain attractive.

Whispers from the Confidence Index

The NAR REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI) for December 2025 also offers some additional context.

Time on Market is Growing: The median time properties were on the market increased to 39 days, up from 36 days the previous month and 35 days in December 2024. This aligns with the idea of a cooling market where homes might not be selling as instantly.
First-Time Buyer Struggles Continue: First-time homebuyers made up 29% of sales, down from the previous month and year. This reinforces the affordability challenge they face.
Investor and Cash Buyer Presence: A notable 28% of transactions were cash sales, slightly up from the month before. Individual investors and second-home buyers also accounted for 18% of transactions, unchanged from last month but up from 16% a year ago. This suggests that cash is still king and investors are actively participating, which can put pressure on prices and make it harder for traditional buyers.
A Ray of Hope for Traffic: Despite the dip in pending sales, a good chunk of NAR members (31%) expect an increase in buyer traffic over the next three months, and 28% expect an increase in seller traffic. This could indicate that while contract signings were down in December, real estate professionals are sensing a renewed interest from both buyers and sellers heading into the new year. This is a crucial metric to watch; if buyer and seller traffic picks up, it can lead to more transactions down the line.

What Does This Mean for Me?

If you're thinking about buying or selling in 2026:

Buyers: Stay patient. The market might offer more negotiating power than in the recent past. Focus on what you can afford and be prepared for continued competition if inventory remains tight.
Sellers: It’s still a seller's market in many places, but you may need to be more strategic. Pricing your home correctly from the start and ensuring it shows well will be more important than ever.

Ultimately, the drop in pending home sales is a signal to pay attention. It’s not a sign of impending doom, but rather a nudge towards a more balanced and predictable housing market in 2026. I'm optimistic that with clear data and careful observation, we can navigate whatever comes our way.

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Recommended Read:

Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 23: Buyers Cheer As Rates Hit Lowest Point in 3 Years

What the Numbers Are Telling Us: A Look at the Averages

Understanding the “Why”: Factors Driving Today's Rates

The Impact on You: Homebuyers and Refinancers Rejoice

It's Not Just a National Picture: State and Local Differences Matter

Beyond the State Lines: Regional and Metro Variations

What I'm Thinking About This Trend

Also Read:

Southern California Housing Market Trends

Home Sales: A December Boost for Southern California

Home Prices: Stability with County-Specific Growth

Housing Supply: A Gradual Rebalancing Act

Market Trends: Setting the Stage for 2026

Southern California Housing Market Forecast 2026

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for the Next 2 Years: 2026-2027

Key Takeaways

Where the Bay Area Market Stands Today

A Look at the Forecast

Bay Area vs. The Rest of the State of California

The Bigger Picture: National Housing Market Trends

So, Will Bay Area Home Prices Drop Significantly? Will it Crash?

A Peek into Late 2026 and Early 2027

Wrapping Up: Navigating the Bay Area Market

Want Stronger Returns? Invest Where the Housing Market’s Growing

Also Read:

San Diego Housing Market Update: What the Latest Data Tells Us

Home Prices: Reaching New Heights

Home Sales: A Mixed Picture

Housing Supply: A Slight Easing

Market Trends: Looking Ahead

San Diego Housing Market Forecast for Mid-2026

What the Experts are Saying:

How Does San Diego Compare?

Nationwide Trends: What's Happening Across the US?

So, Will Home Prices Crash in San Diego?

My Take:

Looking Ahead to 2026

SF Bay Area Housing Market Update and Trends

Home Prices: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Home Sales: A Glimmer of Growth Amidst Seasonal Slowdown

Housing Supply: A Tighter Squeeze in the Bay Area

Mortgage Rates and What It Means for You

Market Trends: What's Next for the Bay Area?

Bay Area Housing Market Forecast for Mid-2026: Will Prices Drop?

What the Numbers are Saying: Bay Area Predictions

Bay Area vs. The Rest of California: A Comparative View

National Trends & the “Magic Bullet”

Will the Bottom Fall Out? My Take

Looking Ahead to 2026: My Prediction

Los Angeles Housing Market Update: What's Shaking in SoCal?

Home Prices: A Closer Look at What You'll Pay

Home Sales: Buzzing or Stalling?

Housing Supply: Are There More Homes on the Block?

Market Trends: What's Driving the Numbers?

Los Angeles Housing Market Forecast: Will Prices Rise or Fall?

How Does L.A. Compare To Other California Markets?

What About the National Picture?

Will Home Prices Crash in Los Angeles?

Looking Ahead to 2026

Should You Invest in the Los Angeles Real Estate Market in 2025?

Market Stability

Property Appreciation

Rental Income Potential

Consideration for Property Type

The Housing Shortage Dilemma

Investor's Paradise: The Demand-Supply Gap

Economic Diversity

Job Growth

Population Growth

How to Invest in Real Estate in Los Angeles?

Single-Family Rental vs. Multi-Family Investment

Single-Family Rental:

Multi-Family Investment:

Maximizing Return on Investment

California Housing Market Update: A Look at December 2025 and Beyond

Home Sales: Ending on a High Note

Home Prices: A Cooling Trend That's Welcome News

Housing Supply: A Slowing Rise

Market Trends: Where Do We Go From Here?

A Look Ahead