Today’s Mortgage Rates, Jan 26: 30-Year Fixed Rate Inches Up, Hovering at 6%

If you're looking to buy a home or refinance, today's mortgage rates on January 26, 2026, show a slight uptick in the 30-year fixed rate compared to last week, hovering just around the 6% mark, according to Zillow data. While this might not be the thrilling news some were hoping for, it's crucial to understand the forces behind these numbers to make informed decisions.

This current movement isn't a cause for panic, but it definitely underscores the dynamic nature of borrowing costs. Let's dive deeper into what’s happening with the numbers and, more importantly, what it means for you.

Today's Mortgage Rates, Jan 26: 30-Year Fixed Rate Inches Up, Hovering at 6%

Current National Average Mortgage Rates

Here's a snapshot of what borrowing costs look like as of January 26, 2026, based on Zillow's national averages:

It’s interesting to note the slight spread between the average rate and the APR (Annual Percentage Rate). The APR is a more comprehensive look at the cost of borrowing because it includes fees and other charges, so it’s always wise to compare APRs when shopping for a mortgage.

Tracking the Weekly Trends

Looking back just a week, we see a modest shift:

• 30-Year Fixed: This popular loan type has seen an increase of about 10 basis points (or 0.10%). It’s a small nudge, but it’s definitely in the upward direction.
• 15-Year Fixed: This shorter-term option has also seen a slight bump, moving up from where it was roughly a week ago. This aligns with the general upward pressure we're observing.

For context, earlier in January, we saw some rates dip below the 6% threshold, which certainly got a lot of attention and spurred action from potential buyers. This recent rise is a reminder that those lower rates can be fleeting.

Why the Slight Increase? Unpacking the Drivers

You might be wondering what’s causing this gentle upward creep in mortgage rates. It’s rarely a single factor; rather, it's a symphony of economic and global events. Based on my understanding and the data available, here are the key players:

• Geopolitical Tensions: The world stage is never truly quiet, and right now, a few rumblings are making investors a bit nervous. Think about things like unexpected tariff threats or flare-ups in different regions – these create uncertainty. When investors feel uneasy, they often pull their money out of riskier assets and move into safer ones, like government bonds. This increased demand for bonds can push their prices up, and when bond prices go up, their yields (which influence mortgage rates) tend to go up too. It’s a complex chain reaction.
• Anticipation of the Federal Reserve Meeting: The Federal Reserve (often called the “Fed”) is crucial to our economy. They have a big meeting coming up on January 27–28, 2026. Everyone is watching to see if they will cut interest rates. While most folks expect a small cut (about a quarter of a percent), the chatter from Fed Chairman Powell has been a bit cautious. If he hints that they need to be careful about cutting rates too fast, it can make lenders hesitate to lower their own mortgage rates. It's all about managing expectations and future moves.
• Government Deficit and Spending: Our government borrows a lot of money to pay for its expenses. When there's a lot of new government debt being issued, they have to offer higher interest rates (yields) to convince people to buy those bonds. This increased borrowing cost for the government can, in turn, push up the borrowing costs for everyone else, including those looking for mortgages.
• Mixed Economic Signals: The economy is like a patient with a few symptoms. We're seeing inflation slowly coming down, which is good. However, it's still a bit stubborn, especially for certain goods and services impacted by import costs. At the same time, recent reports show that our economy is growing stronger than some expected (with GDP figures in the 4.3%–4.4% range). When the economy is robust, it typically leads to higher interest rates because businesses are booming and there’s more demand for money.
• A Surge in Buyer Demand: This is a big one! When rates dipped below 6% earlier this month, it was like a siren call for homebuyers. We saw a significant 14.1% jump in mortgage applications. High demand can actually cause lenders to become more selective or even raise rates to manage the sheer volume of applications and cover their operating costs. It’s a classic supply-and-demand situation.

What About the Future? The 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast

So, where are we headed? Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, the general consensus among housing experts and financial institutions is that mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline. However, don't expect a freefall back to the super-low pandemic rates. Most predictions place the average 30-year fixed rate somewhere in the 6% to 6.4% range by the end of the year. Some forecasts even suggest a potential temporary dip to around 5.5%–5.8% sometime around the middle of the year.

Here’s a quick look at what some key players are saying:

• Fannie Mae: They're predicting rates to sit around 6% for much of 2026, which they believe will make homes more affordable and boost sales.
• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Their outlook is a bit higher, with rates expected to stay in the 6.3%–6.4% range, but they note the potential for refinancing if rates dip below 6%.
• National Association of Realtors (NAR): They also anticipate rates around the 6% mark, believing this level will help bring many buyers back into the market and significantly increase home sales.
• Morgan Stanley: Their strategists see a potential for a temporary dip in rates to 5.5%–5.75% mid-year, but they think rates might climb again in the latter half of the year.
• Bankrate / Curinos: They expect rates to “bounce around 6%” with a potential brief dip tied to Fed rate cuts and economic news. They estimate an average around 6.1% with a potential low of 5.5%.
• Zillow: Their year-end forecast suggests rates will likely average above 6% but settle around 6% by the end of 2026, offering some much-needed relief for buyers.

As you can see, the general sentiment is a gradual tempering of rates, creating a more balanced market than we've seen in the recent past.

Final Thoughts

From my perspective, these current rates, while a slight increase from last week, are still within a range that many buyers can manage, especially with competitive local markets and potential for smart negotiation. The forecasts for the year ahead are generally positive, suggesting a path toward more affordability.