Today’s Mortgage Rates – September 14, 2025: Slight Uptick in Purchase Rates, Refi Rates Drop

As of September 14, 2025, mortgage rates have shown a mixed but generally optimistic trend. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.54%, slightly higher than last week's 6.50%, indicating a slight uptick in rates. Meanwhile, refinance rates for the same term have decreased slightly to 6.73% from 6.75%, offering some relief to current homeowners looking to refinance. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to 5.64%, and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) remain around 7% or higher.

This current rate environment reflects a delicate balance influenced heavily by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a softening labor market, and moving Treasury yields.

Today's Mortgage Rates – September 14, 2025: Slight Uptick in Purchase Rates, Refinance Rates Drop

Key Takeaways

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates increased slightly to 6.54% as of September 14, 2025.
• 30-year refinance rates dropped modestly to 6.73%, presenting refinancing opportunities.
• 15-year fixed mortgage and refinance rates show small increases and decreases respectively, at 5.64% and 5.51%.
• Labor market softness (4.3% unemployment) and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts are driving market expectations.
• Mortgage rates remain above 6%, with forecasts suggesting a stay above this mark until mid-2026.
• Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) rates are relatively high, with the 5-year ARM averaging 7.32%.

Current Mortgage Rate Overview — September 14, 2025

Mortgage rates, particularly the 30-year fixed, are a critical indicator for homebuyers and the housing market. According to Zillow, the latest rates are as follows:

Loan Type	Current Rate	Change (Week-over-Week)	APR	APR Change
30-Year Fixed	6.54%	+0.04%	7.04%	+0.11%
20-Year Fixed	6.22%	+0.10%	6.54%	+0.04%
15-Year Fixed	5.64%	+0.07%	5.86%	+0.02%
10-Year Fixed	5.79%	No change	6.09%	No change
7-Year ARM	6.38%	-0.55%	7.43%	-0.23%
5-Year ARM	7.32%	+0.56%	7.92%	+0.38%

Government Loan Rates

Loan Type	Current Rate	Change (Week-over-Week)	APR	APR Change
FHA 30-Year Fixed	7.25%	+1.37%	8.28%	+1.40%
VA 30-Year Fixed	5.89%	-0.05%	6.11%	-0.04%
FHA 15-Year Fixed	5.31%	-0.07%	6.27%	-0.07%
VA 15-Year Fixed	5.57%	No change	5.92%	+0.02%

Source: Zillow

Refinance Rates — Slight Dip Offers Homeowners a Break

Refinancing has become increasingly attractive with the small dip in mortgage refinancing rates. On September 14, 2025:

Refinance Term	Current Rate	Change (Week-over-Week)
30-Year Fixed Refinance	6.73%	-0.05%
15-Year Fixed Refinance	5.51%	-0.02%
5-Year ARM Refinance	7.66%	+0.03%

This decline is notable because it suggests an expanding window for homeowners to take advantage of lower costs, especially after periods of high refinancing rates above 7%.

Context: Why Are Mortgage Rates What They Are Today?

Understanding today’s mortgage rates requires examining the economic backdrop and Federal Reserve policies influencing them.

The Federal Reserve and Its Impact

1. Previous Rate Hikes and Current Pause: Between 2022 and mid-2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to tackle inflation. This period pushed mortgage rates to 20-year highs (around 6.6% to 6.8%). Since then, the Fed paused rate hikes for several meetings in 2025, with internal debates on when to cut next.
2. Labor Market Influences: The August 2025 jobs report highlighted a slowdown: unemployment rose to 4.3%, and only 22,000 new jobs were added. This cooling labor market is a key signal supporting the prospect of rate cuts.
3. Anticipated Rate Cuts: Market expectations price in a 91% chance of a 0.25% Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 16-17, 2025 meeting. Two additional rate cuts are anticipated by year-end, which could drive mortgage rates further down, possibly approaching or dipping slightly below 6%.
4. Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates closely follow the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, currently at about 4.07%, near its lowest since October 2024. Declining yields translate into lower mortgage rates.

Forecasts and Expert Opinions on Mortgage Rates

How Low Will Rates Go?

Forecast Source	2025 H2 Rate Forecast	2026 Rate Forecast	Notes
National Association of REALTORS®	6.4%	6.1%	Rates seen as a “magic bullet” for market
Realtor.com	~6.4% by year-end	N/A	Slow easing expected
Fannie Mae	6.5% (year-end)	6.1%	Modest upward revisions
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.	6.7% (year-end)	6.5%	Volatile markets affect spreads

These forecasts suggest mortgage rates are expected to decline gradually but remain above 6% through at least mid-2026. This view aligns with a cautious optimism fueled by economic data and Fed policy signals.

The Economic Forces Behind Rate Movements

Mortgage rates have not just moved on a whim; their pendulum swings reflect multiple intertwined factors:

• Inflation Trends: Inflation cooling from very high levels (core PCE inflation about 2.7%) helps ease interest rate pressure.
• Labor Markets: As job growth slows, the pressure on wages and inflation decreases, supporting rate cuts.
• Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: The Fed’s balancing act between slowing inflation and avoiding economic contraction guides mortgage rate trajectories.
• Global Economic Factors: International market movements and Treasury supply affect Treasury yields, impacting mortgage rates.

Practical Example: How Rate Changes Affect Monthly Payments

Let's consider a $300,000 mortgage for a new home purchase.

Mortgage Rate	Monthly Payment (Principal & Interest)	Difference in Payment
6.54% (Current)	$1,911	Baseline
6.00% (Projected)	$1,799	$112 savings per month
7.00% (High)	$1,995	$84 extra per month

Note: Assumes a 30-year fixed-rate loan, without taxes or insurance.

The example shows how even a half-percent drop in mortgage rates can save homeowners hundreds over a year, making buying or refinancing decisions financially impactful.

Final Thoughts on Today's Mortgage Rates

Today's mortgage rate environment reflects a market carefully interpreting economic signals and forecasting Federal Reserve moves. Slight increases in purchase mortgage rates contrast with slight decreases in refinance rates, creating an interesting dynamic for potential homebuyers and existing property owners. The labor market’s cooling trend, the bond market’s reaction, and the Fed's anticipated actions all feed into this delicate balance.

While rates seem likely to stay above 6% for most of the near future, the promise of cuts may gradually push rates downward. Still, personal circumstances—like creditworthiness and loan specifics—will significantly influence individual mortgage offers.