Thinking about buying or selling a home in Wisconsin in 2024? Let's dive into the current Wisconsin housing market trends and what they might mean for you. In short, the Wisconsin housing market in September 2024 showed a 6.2% year-over-year increase in home prices, but also a 7.2% decrease in the number of homes sold, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. Let's explore this further.
Wisconsin Housing Market Trends in 2024: A Detailed Look
Home Sales in Wisconsin
According to Redfin data, the number of homes sold in Wisconsin in September 2024 was down 7.2% compared to the same period last year. This decrease is significant and points to a cooling market. While this might initially seem discouraging, it's crucial to understand the context. The previous years saw exceptionally high sales volumes, fueled by low interest rates and a surge in demand.
This year's dip is more of a return to a more sustainable pace, though it could represent changes in the market. I've personally seen a shift in buyer behavior; people are more cautious, taking their time, and negotiating more fiercely than a year ago. This is a good thing, as it signals more balance in the market.
Home Prices in Wisconsin: A Closer Look
Despite fewer homes being sold, home prices in Wisconsin saw a 6.2% increase year-over-year in September 2024, reaching a median sale price of $316,200. This rise is interesting, as it shows that while the volume of sales is decreasing, prices are still climbing. What's driving this? The simple answer is still limited supply. While there's a slight increase in available homes, it hasn't kept up with the demand. Certain areas within Wisconsin have seen significantly higher increases than this.
Here's a glimpse of some of the top 10 fastest-growing sales prices in Wisconsin metros:
| City | Growth (% YoY) |
|---|---|
| Beloit, WI | 31.4% |
| Manitowoc, WI | 24.4% |
| Middleton, WI | 21.4% |
| Mount Pleasant, WI | 19.9% |
| Kenosha, WI | 15.0% |
| Oshkosh, WI | 14.5% |
| Stevens Point, WI | 13.5% |
| Milwaukee, WI | 12.5% |
| Eau Claire, WI | 11.6% |
| West Allis, WI | 10.2% |
This data highlights the variability across the state. Some areas are experiencing much faster price appreciation than others. This underscores the importance of doing localized research before buying or selling.
Housing Supply in Wisconsin: The Inventory Picture
The number of homes for sale in Wisconsin in September 2024 increased by 5.3% year-over-year, reaching 22,052 listings. This represents a small increase in inventory, but it is still far from an over-saturated market. This increase offers a slightly better selection for buyers, but it's essential to remember that this is relative. The market is still considered tight, especially in highly desirable areas. We are far from the days of buyers' markets, where homes sat unsold for months.
The number of newly listed homes also saw a small uptick, only 0.4% year-over-year, indicating that new properties are still entering the market at a relatively slow pace. This further contributes to the limited inventory. This is a factor contributing to the steady increase in home prices despite reduced sales.
Real Estate Market Trends in Wisconsin: A More Balanced Market?
The current Wisconsin housing market trends show a picture of transition. We're moving away from the frenzied market of the past few years. The decrease in sales and the slight increase in housing supply indicate a shift toward a more balanced market.
- Homes Sold Above List Price: 39.5% of homes sold above asking price in September 2024, down 8.4 percentage points year-over-year. This demonstrates a reduction in bidding wars, although it's still quite common for homes to sell for over the asking price.
- Homes with Price Drops: 23.6% of homes experienced price reductions, up 3.2 percentage points year-over-year. This increased rate of price drops is a clear indication of a less aggressive seller's market.
- Sale-to-List Price Ratio: The sale-to-list price ratio was 99.8%, down 1.1 percentage points year-over-year. This decrease indicates a slight softening of the market's competitiveness, but it's still quite close to the 100% mark, indicating continued price strength.
Wisconsin Housing Market Predictions 2024-2025
Predicting the future is always tricky, but based on the current trends, I expect the Wisconsin housing market to remain relatively stable, though there will likely be some regional variations. While the rapid price increases of previous years are likely over, I believe the market will continue to show modest growth rather than any major decline in home prices.
The inventory increase will help buyers, offering them more options and better negotiating power. However, I don’t anticipate a significant increase in homes for sale, and inventory will likely remain tighter than in previous decades.
Regional Breakdown: A Closer Look at Key Areas
Wisconsin Housing Market Forecast Summary
Overall Outlook: Relatively Stable, with Regional Variations
Regions Poised for Growth:
- Green Bay
- Appleton
- Janesville
- Sheboygan
- Manitowoc
- Shawano
Regions Poised for Decline/Slow Growth:
- Wausau
- Wisconsin Rapids
- Stevens Point
- Baraboo
- Menomonie
Disclaimer: This forecast is based on current trends and projections and is not financial advice. Consult a real estate professional for personalized guidance.
According to Zillow data, the average Wisconsin home value hovers around $306,557, according to recent data. This represents a 4.7% increase over the past year. While that seems positive, the market isn't uniform across the state. Some areas are booming, while others are experiencing slower growth or even slight declines.
The time it takes for a home to go from listed to pending varies greatly depending on location, pricing, and the specific features of the property. It's also important to note that national economic conditions will impact the market over the long term, adding to the complexity of any forecast.
To truly grasp the Wisconsin housing market forecast, we need to look at specific regions. The following data offers a glimpse into the projected price movements for various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Wisconsin:
| Region Name | Projected Price Change (%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee, WI | October 2024: 0.1%; December 2024: -0.3%; September 2025: 0.2% | Slight initial increase, followed by a modest dip, then a recovery. |
| Madison, WI | October 2024: 0%; December 2024: -0.5%; September 2025: 0.2% | Expect a more significant dip in the coming months before modest growth. |
| Green Bay, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0.1%; September 2025: 1.9% | Steady growth anticipated, with strong increase by the end of next year. |
| Appleton, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0%; September 2025: 1.2% | Moderate growth is projected. |
| Racine, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0%; September 2025: 0.7% | Relatively stable market expected. |
| Oshkosh, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: -0.2%; September 2025: 0.6% | A little less stable than Racine, with a slight dip in December. |
| Eau Claire, WI | October 2024: -0.1%; December 2024: -0.6%; September 2025: 0.5% | Noticeable dip expected before a slight recovery. |
| Wausau, WI | October 2024: -0.1%; December 2024: -0.5%; September 2025: -0.3% | Slight price decreases projected throughout this period. |
| Janesville, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0%; September 2025: 1.4% | Solid growth anticipated. |
| La Crosse, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: -0.1%; September 2025: 0.5% | Stable with a slight dip mid-year. |
| Sheboygan, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0%; September 2025: 1.5% | Steady growth, similar to Appleton and Janesville. |
| Whitewater, WI | October 2024: -0.1%; December 2024: -0.6%; September 2025: 0.4% | Dip before a slight recovery. |
| Fond du Lac, WI | October 2024: 0%; December 2024: -0.4%; September 2025: 1% | A dip followed by good growth. |
| Beaver Dam, WI | October 2024: 0.1%; December 2024: -0.1%; September 2025: 0.9% | Slight dip, but overall positive growth. |
| Watertown, WI | October 2024: 0.1%; December 2024: -0.2%; September 2025: 0.3% | Slow, steady growth expected. |
| Manitowoc, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0.3%; September 2025: 2.5% | Strong growth projected throughout the period. |
| Wisconsin Rapids, WI | October 2024: -0.2%; December 2024: -0.8%; September 2025: -0.6% | Expect a decrease in home prices in this region. |
| Stevens Point, WI | October 2024: 0.1%; December 2024: -0.3%; September 2025: -0.6% | Slight initial increase followed by a decline. |
| Baraboo, WI | October 2024: -0.1%; December 2024: -0.5%; September 2025: -0.2% | Expect small decreases in the region. |
| Marinette, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: -0.3%; September 2025: 1.6% | A dip in the middle of the period but an overall increase. |
| Platteville, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0.1%; September 2025: -0.1% | Initial growth, followed by a slight decrease. |
| Menomonie, WI | October 2024: -0.3%; December 2024: -1%; September 2025: -0.2% | Significant decreases expected throughout this period. |
| Shawano, WI | October 2024: 0.2%; December 2024: 0%; September 2025: 1.5% | Steady growth projected. |
Key Takeaways from the Regional Data:
- Growth Areas: Green Bay, Appleton, Janesville, Sheboygan, and Manitowoc show the most promising growth potential over the next year. These areas often attract buyers due to job growth, affordability (relative to other areas), or unique lifestyle factors.
- Stagnant or Declining Markets: Wausau, Stevens Point, Baraboo, Menomonie, and Wisconsin Rapids are projected to see either little to no growth or even price declines. This could be due to various local factors, including economic changes or a surplus of available properties.
- Market Volatility: Note that these are projections, and the actual results may vary due to unforeseen economic shifts or local market dynamics.
Will Home Prices Drop in Wisconsin? Will There Be a Crash?
The question of a market crash is always on everyone's mind. While a dramatic price crash seems unlikely in Wisconsin at this time, I would not rule out the possibility of a correction in certain areas. The current market is showing signs of moderation. The rapid price increases of the past few years are slowing down. This moderation doesn't necessarily signal a crash, but it does point to a more stable and potentially less exciting market.
2026 and Beyond: A Tentative Forecast
Predicting the market beyond a year is extremely challenging. However, based on current trends, I believe that Wisconsin's housing market will likely continue to experience relatively slow and steady growth in 2026. The level of growth, however, is heavily dependent on the broader economic environment—interest rates, inflation, and national economic conditions. Areas that are experiencing slower growth now may see a pick-up in activity if economic indicators improve.
Factors Influencing the Wisconsin Housing Market
Several factors influence the Wisconsin housing market forecast:
- Interest Rates: Higher interest rates make mortgages more expensive, cooling buyer demand. Lower rates have the opposite effect.
- Inflation: High inflation erodes purchasing power, impacting housing affordability.
- Job Market: Strong job growth generally fuels demand and boosts home prices.
- Inventory Levels: A shortage of homes for sale tends to push prices upward. An oversupply can lead to price decreases.
- Population Growth: Areas experiencing population growth tend to see increased housing demand.
My Opinion on the Forecast
I believe that caution is warranted. While some regions offer exciting potential, it's crucial to conduct thorough research and carefully consider your financial situation before making major real estate decisions. Don't get caught up in hype or fear-mongering. Focus on the specifics of the area you're considering and consult with a trusted professional.
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