Thinking about buying or selling a home in Lincoln, Nebraska? You're probably wondering what's going on with the current Lincoln housing market trends. Well, as of January 2025, the market is competitive, with the median sale price sitting at $265,000, a decrease of 5.1% compared to last year. Let's dive into the details to give you a better understanding.
As someone who's been keeping a close eye on the real estate scene, I know that making informed decisions is crucial. So, let's break down the key factors influencing the Lincoln housing market right now.
Current Lincoln Housing Market Trends
Home Sales
The number of homes sold in Lincoln has seen a bit of a dip recently.
- According to Redfin's data, in January 2025, there were 212 homes sold, which is down 12% year-over-year.
This decrease in sales could be attributed to a few things, including higher mortgage rates and the overall economic climate. Fewer sales can sometimes indicate a cooling market, giving buyers a little more breathing room.
Home Prices
Home prices are always a hot topic, right? Here's what's happening in Lincoln:
- The median sale price in January 2025 was $265,000.
- This represents a 5.1% decrease compared to January of the previous year.
- The median sale price per square foot is $152, which is essentially unchanged from last year (up 0%).
Are Home Prices Dropping?
While the median sale price has decreased slightly, it's important to remember that real estate is local. A 5.1% drop year-over-year could be a sign of prices softening, but it doesn't necessarily mean a major crash is on the horizon. It could simply be a correction after a period of rapid growth.
Comparison with Current National Median Price
Let's put Lincoln's home prices into perspective by comparing them to the national median:
- National Median Price (December 2024): $407,500
- Year-over-Year Change: +6%
- Lincoln Median Price (January 2025): $265,000
As you can see, Lincoln is significantly more affordable than the national average. In fact, the median sale price in Lincoln is 37% lower than the national median. This could be a major draw for people looking to relocate and find more affordable housing.
Housing Supply
The housing supply refers to the number of homes available for sale. This is a critical factor in determining whether it's a buyer's or seller's market.
Unfortunately, the data readily available doesn't explicitly state the exact number of active listings. However, the time homes spend on the market gives us some clues.
- Homes in Lincoln are selling in an average of 32 days.
- This is a decrease of 5 days compared to last year.
The fact that homes are selling slightly faster than last year suggests that demand is still present, even if the number of sales has decreased. This could imply that the housing supply is still relatively tight.
Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
Based on the available data, Lincoln is considered a very competitive market. Redfin gives Lincoln a Redfin Compete Score of 75. That means it leans more toward a seller's market, but not overwhelmingly so. Here's why:
- Homes sell relatively quickly (32 days).
- Many homes receive multiple offers, sometimes with waived contingencies.
- On average, homes sell for about 2% below list price.
- About 23.6% of homes sold above list price in January 2025, up 5.7 percentage points from last year.
- About 22.4% of homes experienced price drops, up 5.8 percentage points from last year.
This mixed bag of data suggests that while sellers still have an advantage, buyers are gaining a little more leverage. The market is not as scorching hot as it was a year or two ago.
Market Trends
Beyond the numbers, let's talk about some general market trends I'm seeing in Lincoln:
- Migration Patterns: According to Redfin data, a significant portion of homebuyers are looking to move out of Lincoln (39%), while the majority (61%) want to stay within the metropolitan area. People are moving to Lincoln primarily from Kansas City, Denver, and Los Angeles. People are moving away from Lincoln primarily to Des Moines, Omaha, and Minneapolis.
- Climate Considerations: Buyers are becoming increasingly aware of environmental risks. Data from First Street Foundation indicates that:
- 10% of properties are at risk of severe flooding over the next 30 years
- 45% of properties are at risk of wildfire over the next 30 years
- 100% of properties are at minor risk of a severe wind event over the next 30 years
- 100% of properties are at moderate risk of heat over the next 30 years
This information can influence buyer decisions and potentially impact property values in certain areas.
Impact of High Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates play a huge role in the housing market. As of February 2025, rates are hovering around 7%. This has a significant impact:
- Reduced Affordability: Higher rates mean higher monthly payments, making it more difficult for people to afford homes.
- Slower Sales: As mentioned earlier, higher rates can lead to fewer sales as some buyers are priced out of the market or choose to wait for rates to come down.
- More Negotiating Power for Buyers: When rates are high, buyers have more leverage to negotiate prices and terms with sellers.
I think that even though rates are currently elevated, there are still opportunities for both buyers and sellers in Lincoln. Buyers can take advantage of a slightly less competitive market and potentially negotiate better deals. Sellers need to be realistic about pricing and be prepared to market their homes effectively.
Table Summarizing Lincoln Housing Market Data (January 2025)
| Metric | Value | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $265,000 | -5.1% |
| Number of Homes Sold | 212 | -12.0% |
| Median Days on Market | 32 | -5 days |
| Sale-to-List Price Ratio | 98.1% | +0.4 pt |
| Homes Sold Above List | 23.6% | +5.7 pt |
Lincoln Housing Market Forecast: What to Expect in 2025 and Beyond
You're wondering what the Lincoln housing market forecast looks like. Good news! All signs indicate the market should remain pretty stable. According to the latest data, home values in Lincoln are expected to increase modestly over the next year.
Digging into the Numbers: Lincoln's Housing Market Projections
Let's get specific. Zillow's forecast, as of January 31, 2025, paints a picture of gradual, sustainable growth for the Lincoln, NE metro area. Here's a breakdown:
- February 2025 Projection: A 0.4% increase in home values.
- April 2025 Projection: A 0.9% increase in home values.
- January 2025 to January 2026 (1-Year Forecast): An overall 1.1% increase in home values.
These aren't huge jumps, but they do suggest that your home value will likely appreciate over the next year, or, if you are planning to buy a home, it may cost you a little bit more. The data clearly shows that Lincoln will see a slight appreciation in its real estate market.
Lincoln vs. The Rest of Nebraska: A Comparative Look
It's always useful to see how Lincoln stacks up against other cities in Nebraska. Here's a comparison of expected home value changes across the state:
| City | February 2025 Projected Change | April 2025 Projected Change | Jan 2025 – Jan 2026 Projected Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Omaha | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| Grand Island | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| Kearney | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Norfolk | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% |
| Scottsbluff | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
As you can see, Lincoln's projected growth is consistent with other areas in Nebraska. Grand Island and Scottsbluff, however, are expected to grow at a slightly faster pace.
Will Home Prices Drop in Lincoln? Could There Be a Crash?
Based on the available data and my own experience following the market, a significant drop or “crash” in Lincoln's housing market seems unlikely in the immediate future. The projected growth, while moderate, indicates a stable market. Several factors contribute to this:
- Steady Demand: Lincoln is a desirable place to live, thanks to its good schools, job opportunities, and relatively affordable cost of living.
- Balanced Inventory: The supply of homes for sale isn't drastically outpacing demand, preventing prices from plummeting.
- Healthy Economy: Nebraska's economy, in general, has been relatively stable, which supports the housing market.
Of course, it's impossible to predict the future with 100% certainty. Unexpected economic shifts or changes in interest rates could influence the market. However, as of now, the signs point to continued stability.
Looking Ahead: A Possible Forecast for 2026
While we don't have concrete data for 2026 yet, I expect the Lincoln housing market to continue on a similar trajectory. I would anticipate moderate, sustainable growth, influenced by factors like population changes, employment rates, and overall economic conditions. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, I think it's reasonable to expect continued appreciation in the 1-3% range.
Disclaimer: This is just my analysis based on current data and understanding of the market. It is not financial advice. Always consult with a qualified real estate professional before making any buying or selling decisions.
What is the Nicest Neighborhood in Lincoln, Nebraska?
Identifying the nicest neighborhood in Lincoln can be subjective, based on individual preferences and needs. However, some neighborhoods stand out due to their amenities, community feel, and overall living standards:
1. Country Club Neighborhood:
- Known for its historic homes and well-manicured lawns.
- Proximity to the Country Club of Lincoln offers exclusive recreational amenities.
- Affluent community with a reputation for safety and high property values.
2. Vintage Heights:
- Offers new, spacious homes and well-planned streetscapes.
- Excellent schools and family-friendly parks are major attractions.
- Growing community with modern conveniences and retail options nearby.
3. Downtown Lincoln:
- Perfect for those looking for an urban lifestyle with access to restaurants, nightlife, and cultural attractions.
- Revitalization efforts have enhanced its appeal, with luxury apartments and condos becoming increasingly popular.
Is Lincoln, NE Expensive to Live?
Comparatively, Lincoln, NE, is more affordable than many other U.S. cities, though costs can vary depending on lifestyle and specific needs.
Cost of Living Index: Lincoln's cost of living index is 92.3, below the national average of 100. This indicates that overall expenses, including housing, groceries, and utilities, are generally lower.
Housing Costs:
- Average Home Price: $273,588 (as of January 2025)
- Average Rent Price: Roughly $1,200 per month, reflecting a moderate rental market (data from Zillow). The price range for all bedrooms and all property types is $505 to $3,500. Rent in Lincoln, NE is 40% lower than the national average.
Utilities and Groceries:
- Utility costs in Lincoln are modest, with average monthly expenses for a standard home being reasonable.
- Groceries and transportation costs align closely with national averages, making day-to-day living affordable.
Quality of Life: Lincoln offers a high quality of life with excellent educational institutions, healthcare facilities, and a vibrant community atmosphere. The city also benefits from lower crime rates and ample recreational activities, contributing to its attractiveness without the burden of high living costs.
In conclusion, while there may be modest fluctuations in the housing market in the short to mid-term, Lincoln, NE remains a vibrant and affordable place to live. Prospective homebuyers and investors should consider the detailed predictions and neighborhood highlights to make well-informed decisions.
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