Wilmington NC Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

Wilmington, North Carolina, is a coastal city with a vibrant economy and a growing population. The Wilmington housing market has been experiencing some interesting shifts in 2024, with home prices rising slightly but the pace of sales slowing down compared to the previous year.

Several factors contribute to the strength of the housing market in Wilmington:

• Attractive Location: Wilmington is a sought-after destination for retirees and second-home buyers, enticed by its warm climate, stunning beaches, and historic downtown area.
• Economic Growth: The local economy is thriving, resulting in the creation of new jobs across various industries.
• Limited Supply: A shortage of available homes is exerting upward pressure on prices, intensifying the competition among buyers.

In this article, I'll delve into the key aspects of the Wilmington real estate scene, exploring trends like home sales, prices, inventory, and whether it's currently a buyer's or seller's market. Let's dive in!

Current Wilmington Housing Market Trends in 2024: What You Need to Know

Home Sales

Based on Redfin data from October 2024, the number of homes sold in Wilmington experienced a minor decrease of 0.64% compared to October 2023. There were 155 homes sold in October 2024 compared to 156 the previous year. While this is not a drastic change, it suggests a slight cooling down of the market compared to the feverish pace we saw in recent years.

I think this slight decline is partly due to the rise in interest rates we experienced in the past year. As the cost of borrowing money went up, some potential buyers had to step back from purchasing a house. Buyers and sellers are being more cautious, and the days on the market have increased as a result.

Home Prices

Wilmington home prices are still on the rise but at a more moderate pace than before. The median sale price in October 2024 was $480,000, which represents a 6.1% year-over-year increase. This growth is a little less than we've seen in some of the recent years. While still a seller's market, it suggests a bit of stability has entered the market compared to the wild increases of 2021 and 2022.

The median sale price per square foot in Wilmington is also seeing a slower pace of growth, sitting at $259, a 2.0% increase compared to the previous year. This indicates that the overall increase in home prices might be largely driven by the size of homes being sold, rather than a drastic price per unit increase across the board.

Housing Supply

While I don't have exact data on the number of available homes on the market, the increase in the median days on market is an indicator. In October 2024, homes sold in 36 days on average. That is up from 17 days in 2023. This increase suggests that there might be more homes available on the market, giving buyers more options and potentially more leverage in negotiations.

Sellers now need to be a little more competitive with pricing and marketing their homes to attract buyers. In past years, it was often a bidding war situation with multiple offers for a home. That has changed somewhat.

Market Trends

The Wilmington housing market is evolving from the super-hot market of recent years to a more balanced market. Here are some key takeaways:

• Moderate Price Growth: Home prices are still increasing, but at a slower rate than in the past.
• Longer Days on Market: Homes are taking longer to sell, which gives buyers more time to make decisions.
• Less Competition: The frenzied pace of bidding wars has calmed down somewhat, giving buyers a bit more breathing room.
• Shifting Dynamics: While still a seller's market, it is becoming more balanced with buyers having more options.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

In my opinion, the Wilmington housing market is transitioning from a seller's market to a more balanced one. While sellers still hold an advantage, it's not as pronounced as it was a few years ago. Buyers have more choices and potentially more negotiating power.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

No, Wilmington home prices are not currently dropping, but the rate of increase has slowed down considerably. We are seeing a more stable and moderate growth trajectory. I think this trend will continue in the near future, as long as interest rates don't increase drastically or economic conditions significantly worsen.

Wilmington Migration & Relocation Trends

Redfin data reveals interesting insights into migration patterns in and out of the Wilmington area. In the period from September 2024 to November 2024, a near-equal split occurred, with 49% of buyers seeking to move out of Wilmington and 51% looking to stay within the metro area.

Where are people moving to Wilmington from?

The data shows that the largest influx of buyers comes from Washington, DC, New York, and Raleigh. This suggests that Wilmington's appeal as a more affordable and desirable place to live continues to draw people from other, larger metro areas.

Where are people from Wilmington moving to?

The top destinations for those leaving Wilmington were Myrtle Beach, Jacksonville, and Boone. These are all within a reasonable driving distance of Wilmington and offer varying attractions, such as beaches, smaller towns, or mountain scenery.

This data, based on Redfin searches, doesn't reflect actual moves, but it provides a good indication of where people are considering relocating to or from. It shows that Wilmington continues to be a desirable destination but also that people are exploring other options within the state and region.

Impact of Climate on Wilmington Housing

The location of Wilmington, along the coast of North Carolina, makes it susceptible to several environmental risks. Understanding these factors is important when considering the local housing market. Here are some key climate risks and how they might influence home buying decisions:

• Flooding: Redfin data suggests that 31% of properties in Wilmington are at risk of severe flooding over the next 30 years. This is a major consideration for potential homebuyers, as it can influence insurance costs and the overall safety of a property.
• Fire: The risk of wildfire is moderate, with 68% of properties facing a potential risk. While not as significant as the flood risk, it's still a consideration for anyone living in the area.
• Wind: Wilmington has a high risk of severe wind events, with 65% of properties facing a high risk. This is tied to the area's proximity to the coast and the potential for hurricanes and tropical storms.
• Heat: Unfortunately, the heat risk is extremely high, with all properties in the area being at an extreme risk. This risk is increasing due to climate change and can influence the cost of cooling homes in the summer months.

Wilmington NC Housing Market Forecast for Next 2 Years: 2025-2026

Based on the current Wilmington housing market forecast, home values are expected to remain relatively stable through the end of 2024 and experience a moderate increase by October 2025. Let's dive deeper into the specifics and what it all means for you.

Understanding Wilmington Home Price Predictions

I always look to credible sources when it comes to housing market forecasts. Zillow, being a major player in real estate data, provides a valuable glimpse into the future. Their data shows a flattish Wilmington housing market outlook for the end of 2024, with a slight dip of -0.1% predicted for January 2025, before improving to a projected 3.6% annual growth by October 2025.

Date	Wilmington, NC Home Value Forecast (Annual Growth Rate)
November 2024	0%
January 2025	-0.1%
October 2025	3.6%

Key Takeaways from the Forecast:

• The Wilmington housing market is expected to be relatively stable in the coming months.
• A slight dip is expected in the early part of 2025.
• By the end of 2025, home values are anticipated to show positive growth.

Comparing Wilmington to Other NC Cities

It's helpful to see how the Wilmington housing market compares to other cities within North Carolina. Looking at Zillow's forecast for other MSAs in NC, we can gain a better perspective.

City	October 2025 Home Value Forecast (Annual Growth Rate)
Wilmington, NC	3.6%
Charlotte, NC	3.3%
Raleigh, NC	1.7%
Greensboro, NC	3%
Winston-Salem, NC	3.2%
Durham, NC	2.9%
Fayetteville, NC	4.5%
Asheville, NC	3.5%

Based on this data, the Wilmington housing market appears to be performing fairly well relative to other major cities in North Carolina. We can see that while some markets like Fayetteville are projected to have higher growth, Wilmington's forecast for moderate growth positions it favorably.

Will Home Prices Drop in Wilmington?

Based on the current forecast, a substantial drop in home prices in Wilmington seems unlikely. While a slight dip is predicted for early 2025, it's not anticipated to be significant. It's important to remember that these are just forecasts. Interest rates, economic conditions, and other factors can influence the actual performance of the Wilmington housing market.

Wilmington Housing Market Forecast: 2026 & Beyond

Predicting the Wilmington housing market beyond October 2025 is speculative. However, based on the current forecast and national trends, it's plausible that the positive growth trend that starts in late 2025 might continue into 2026. With a growing population, a desirable location, and a potentially recovering economy, I'd say the long-term outlook for Wilmington's real estate remains positive. We'll need to closely monitor the economy and factors like interest rate changes to get a better understanding as we move further into 2025 and beyond.

I hope this analysis provides some clarity on the Wilmington housing market forecast. If you're considering making a move in Wilmington, it is important to consult with a local realtor. They'll have a more granular understanding of current market conditions and can give you more specific advice.

So, Should You To Invest in Wilmington Real Estate Market in 2025?

Wilmington, North Carolina, is not only a picturesque coastal city but also a burgeoning real estate market with a lot to offer investors. Before delving into the reasons to invest in Wilmington real estate, let's start with an overview of the market:

Wilmington's real estate market has experienced consistent growth in recent years. With its beautiful beaches, vibrant culture, and a strong job market, the city attracts both residents and tourists. This influx of people has driven demand for housing, making Wilmington an attractive destination for real estate investors.

The city offers a diverse range of properties, including single-family homes, condominiums, and rental apartments. The market caters to various investment strategies, from long-term rental properties to short-term vacation rentals, providing flexibility for investors.

Now, let's explore the top reasons to invest in Wilmington real estate and potential drawbacks:

Top Reasons to Invest in Wilmington Real Estate

1. Strong Job Market

Wilmington's job market has been steadily growing, particularly in industries like healthcare, education, and technology. A robust job market can lead to increased demand for rental properties, making it an ideal environment for real estate investors.

2. Coastal Appeal

Wilmington's coastal location, with its beautiful beaches and waterways, attracts tourists and retirees alike. This popularity drives demand for vacation rentals and retirement homes, offering a wide range of investment opportunities.

3. Diverse Property Types

Investors can choose from various property types, including historic homes, waterfront properties, and new developments. This diversity allows investors to tailor their portfolios to their preferences and investment goals.

4. Steady Appreciation

Wilmington has seen consistent appreciation in home values over the years. This can lead to long-term wealth accumulation for real estate investors as property values increase.

5. Thriving Tourism Industry

The city's appeal to tourists means a steady stream of potential renters for vacation properties. Wilmington's rich history, cultural events, and entertainment options contribute to a robust tourism industry.

6. Sizable Student Market

Wilmington boasts a sizable student market due to the presence of esteemed educational institutions like the University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW). This student population creates a steady demand for rental properties, especially apartments and student housing, offering a reliable source of rental income for investors.

7. Low NC Property Tax Rate

North Carolina has a reputation for having relatively low property tax rates compared to many other states. This favorable tax environment can enhance the profitability of real estate investments in Wilmington, as lower property taxes mean higher potential returns for investors.

Therefore, investing in Wilmington real estate offers various opportunities, driven by the city's strong job market, coastal appeal, and property diversity. However, potential drawbacks, including competition and maintenance costs, should be carefully considered when formulating an investment strategy. Conducting thorough research and seeking advice from local real estate professionals can help investors make informed decisions in this dynamic market.