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Fed Meeting Today Likely to Hold Interest Rates Steady

January 27, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

As the calendar turns to January 27, 2026, all eyes are on Washington, D.C., because the Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest decision on interest rates. My take, and what the majority of folks watching the markets believe, is that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for this meeting. This means the benchmark federal funds rate will likely stay put in its current target range of 3.50% to 3.75%.

It might seem like old news to some, but these decisions ripple through everything from your mortgage payments to the cost of a cup of coffee. After a few exciting months of rate cuts at the end of last year, this pause feels like a moment for the Fed to catch its breath and see what happens next. It's a classic case of “wait and see,” and I think that's exactly the playbook they'll be following.

Fed’s January 2026 Meeting Today Likely to Hold Interest Rates Steady

Why the Pause? A Look at the Economic Puzzle

Here's the thing about guiding the economy: it's never straightforward. The Fed has two main goals: keep prices stable (meaning inflation isn't running wild) and make sure as many people as possible have jobs. Right now, these goals are in a bit of a tug-of-war.

Inflation Still Lingers: While it's not the sky-high levels we saw a couple of years ago, inflation is still a bit above the Fed's comfort zone of 2%. They like to see a steady cooling trend, and it hasn't quite gotten there yet.
Jobs Market Shows Cracks: On the other hand, the job market, which has been incredibly strong, is starting to show some signs of warming up. We've seen a slight tick up in the unemployment rate, and some other indicators suggest job growth might be slowing a tad.

This mixed bag of data is precisely why I expect them to keep rates where they are. They've already made three cuts in late 2025, and now they need to let those changes sink in and see how the economy reacts before making any more big moves.

What the Market is Thinking (and Why It Matters to You)

You don't have to take my word for it. The folks who trade money for a living are pretty confident about this decision. If you look at tools like the CME FedWatch Tool, it shows that the market is putting a whopping 97% probability on rates staying the same. That's about as close to a sure thing as you can get in the financial world.

This expected pause follows a series of rate cuts in September, October, and December of last year. Imagine the Fed was driving a car and pressing the brake – they've hit the brake a few times, and now they're probably easing off a little to see how the car is slowing down before deciding if they need to hit it again.

Looking Ahead: When Might Rates Start Dropping Again?

The big question on everyone's mind isn't just what happens tomorrow, but what's next for interest rates throughout 2026. My sense is that while today's meeting will be a pause, we'll likely see rate cuts return later in the year.

Some smart people are pointing to the June 2026 meeting as a potential time for the next reduction. This is interesting because it's also around the time the current Fed Chair's term is up in May. The transition of leadership can sometimes bring about shifts in policy approach.

Factors That Could Lead to Future Rate Cuts

So, what would convince the Fed to start cutting rates aggressively later in the year? It really comes down to two main things:

A Significant Wobble in the Jobs Market: If we start seeing a noticeable increase in unemployment or a sharp jump in people filing for jobless benefits, that would be a major signal. The Fed doesn't want to see people lose their livelihoods, so they'd likely lower rates to try and boost the economy and protect jobs.
Inflation Truly Cooling Down: If inflation continues to drop steadily and stays close to that 2% target, the pressure on the Fed to keep rates high will lessen. They'll look at reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to confirm this trend.
The Economy Slowing Too Much: If we see signs that the economy is really dragging its feet, or if there are fears of a recession, the Fed would step in with lower rates to try and keep things moving.

Beyond the Numbers: Other Influences

It's not just about the raw economic data. There are other powerful currents at play:

New Leadership at the Fed: As I mentioned, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026. If his successor is more inclined to lower interest rates (some in the financial world call this being more “dovish”), we could see earlier or deeper cuts than currently expected.
Political Winds: Let's be honest, politics always plays a role. We've seen President Trump consistently advocating for lower interest rates. While the Fed is supposed to be independent, the sheer volume of public pressure can't be entirely ignored. It's a delicate balance, and the lead-up to midterm elections could certainly add to that pressure.
Market Clues: What bond markets are saying is also important. If investors are consistently expecting lower interest rates in the future due to fears of a weak economy or falling inflation, that can also influence the Fed's thinking.

Ultimately, whatever the Fed decides, it will be based on the latest economic reports. They're constantly trying to balance the need for jobs with the need for stable prices. It’s a complex dance, and for now, it seems they’re taking a steady step while watching the music.

The official decision and all the details will be released tomorrow, Wednesday, January 28, 2026, at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference with Chair Powell. It's definitely worth paying attention to!

Summary:

The Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting, concluding tomorrow, January 28th, is widely anticipated to result in interest rates remaining steady between 3.50% and 3.75%. This decision follows three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025 and reflects the Fed's inclination for a “wait and see” approach as they assess mixed economic indicators, including inflation slightly above their target and an evolving labor market. While no rate cut is expected at this meeting, markets anticipate potential future reductions later in 2026, influenced by factors such as labor market performance, inflation trends, potential changes in Fed leadership, and political considerations.

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Orange County Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026

January 26, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

If you're wondering about the pulse of the Orange County housing market right now, I can tell you it's a market with a bit of a mixed story, leaning towards cautious optimism. While we're seeing a healthy increase in the number of homes being sold, especially for condos and townhomes, the median prices for both attached and detached homes have seen a slight dip compared to last year. This suggests a market that's finding its footing rather than soaring.

Let’s break down what the latest numbers from Orange County REALTORS® tell us about where we stand as we head into the latter part of 2025.

How's the Orange County Housing Market Doing Currently?

Home Sales: A Busy Period, Especially for Condos

Alright, let’s talk about the actual transactions. One of the most telling signs of a healthy market is how many homes are changing hands. And in December 2025, we saw some really encouraging movement.

For attached homes (think condos, townhouses, and duplexes), the number of homes sold jumped a significant 41.4% year-over-year. That’s a big surge! It means more people are finding townhomes and condos that fit their needs and budgets. This is fantastic news for both buyers and sellers in this segment. It suggests that affordability might be a bigger draw here, or perhaps more of these units have become available, enticing buyers.

For detached homes (the traditional single-family houses), the picture is also positive, though not quite as dramatic. We saw a 1.6% increase in homes sold year-over-year. While a smaller percentage, it still indicates steady demand for single-family residences in Orange County. It’s not an explosion, but it’s certainly not a slowdown.

From my experience, this divergence between attached and detached sales often points to economic factors at play. When interest rates are a concern, or when inventory for single-family homes is tight, buyers will often pivot to more accessible options like condos.

Home Prices: A Gentle Pause, Not a Crash

Now, let's get to the part everyone's interested in: the actual dollar figures. While more homes are selling, the median sales price has seen a slight softening compared to this time last year.

Attached Homes: The median sales price for attached homes in December 2025 was $810,000, which is a 2.9% decrease year-over-year. This might sound concerning at first, but in my opinion, it's more of a recalibration than a cause for alarm. It could be a sign that the market is adjusting to interest rate realities or that the surge in sales is bringing more mid-range priced units into the mix.
Detached Homes: For detached homes, the median sales price was $1,400,000, showing a 5.7% decrease year-over-year. Again, this is a dip, but it's important to remember that these are still significant price points. This decrease could be influenced by a few factors: more inventory becoming available, which naturally can temper price growth, or buyer demand being slightly more selective.

It’s crucial to remember that these are median prices. This means half the homes sold for more, and half sold for less. We're still seeing plenty of high-end sales. What this slight decrease might indicate, from my perspective, is that the fever pitch of rapid price appreciation we saw in previous years has cooled down, leading to more sustainable price levels. For buyers, this could be a welcome opportunity to enter the market without facing the intense bidding wars of the recent past.

Housing Supply: Inventory Slowly Improving

One of the biggest drivers of real estate prices is the balance between how many homes are for sale (supply) and how many people want to buy them (demand). This is often measured by “months of inventory.”

Attached Homes: We currently have 3.10 months of available inventory for attached homes. This is a healthy increase of 3.10% year-over-year. This is a really positive sign. It means there are more options out there for people looking for condos and townhouses, giving them a bit more breathing room to make a decision.
Detached Homes: For detached homes, the inventory is at 2.50 months, which is the same as last year (0.0% year-over-year). While it hasn't increased, it's not a decrease either. This segment remains tighter, meaning demand is still strong relative to the number of single-family homes available.

Having around 3 months of inventory for attached homes is often considered a sign of a balanced market, or at least moving in that direction. For detached homes, 2.5 months still suggests it’s a seller's market, meaning sellers have a slight edge. However, it's nowhere near the extreme low inventory levels that drove prices sky-high in recent years. My feeling is that the market is gradually finding a better equilibrium.

Market Trends: Days on Market and What They Mean

How long homes are sitting on the market before they sell is another important indicator.

Attached Homes: Homes are taking an average of 41 Days on Market, which is up 29.2% year-over-year. This means homes are sitting on the market longer than they did last year. This is a direct reflection of the increased inventory and a slightly more cautious buyer pool. Buyers have more choices and the luxury of taking their time.
Detached Homes: Detached homes are also spending an average of 41 Days on Market, a 29.2% increase year-over-year. This is the same trend as attached homes.

This increase in days on market isn't necessarily a bad thing. It signifies a less frantic market where buyers aren't feeling immense pressure to make snap decisions. It allows for more thorough inspections, negotiations, and overall a more thoughtful buying process. For my clients, this extended timeframe can be a significant advantage, reducing the stress that often comes with buying a home.

Putting It All Together: My Take on the OC Market

It's a market that's stabilizing and offering more opportunities. We're seeing a robust increase in home sales, particularly in the attached home sector, which is great news for affordability. While home prices have seen a slight dip year-over-year, this is more indicative of a market cooling from a period of intense growth to a more sustainable pace, rather than a downward spiral. The increasing inventory, especially for condos and townhomes, gives buyers more choices and negotiating power. The slightly longer days on market allow for a more measured approach to buying.

For those looking to buy, it feels like a market where you can be more strategic. You have a bit more time to find the right property and potentially negotiate a fair price. For sellers, while the days of instant multiple offers might be less common, a well-priced and well-presented home will still attract strong interest.

Orange County Housing Market Forecast 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, I anticipate a market that continues its path toward greater stability and balanced growth, rather than the wild swings we sometimes see.

Here's what I think we might be looking at:

Continued Steady Home Sales, Especially in Attached Dwellings

The momentum we've seen in home sales, particularly for condos and townhomes, is likely to stick around. As we move into 2026, I expect to see this trend continue. Why? Because these types of homes remain a more accessible entry point into the Orange County market for many. As more of them come onto the market, more buyers will be able to find something that fits their budget and lifestyle.

For single-family homes, while the growth might not be as dramatic as with attached properties, I'm forecasting a consistent, steady demand. People will always want their own piece of land, and Orange County's desirability isn't going anywhere. We might see slightly more inventory trickle onto the market for detached homes too, which would help to ease some of the tightness.

Home Prices: Modest Appreciation, Less Volatility

This is where I think the biggest shift will be noticeable. The era of rapid, double-digit price increases year after year is likely behind us for the immediate future. Instead, I'm forecasting modest, sustainable appreciation for both attached and detached homes in 2026.

Think of it like this: instead of a roller coaster, we're talking about a gradual incline. This means buyers won't feel quite as much pressure to overpay out of fear of missing out, and sellers can expect to get fair value for their properties without inflated expectations.

What could influence this? Interest rates will continue to play a huge role. If rates remain relatively stable or even dip slightly, that can increase buyer purchasing power and support price growth. Conversely, if rates climb significantly, that could put a damper on rapid appreciation. My feeling is we'll see rates in a range that allows for this steady growth.

Inventory Levels: A Welcome Increase

I'm optimistic that housing supply will continue to improve in 2026. The increase in months of inventory we've started to see is not a fluke. As more homeowners feel comfortable listing their properties (perhaps they've secured their next home, or market conditions feel more favorable), we should see buyer options expand.

This is by far one of the most exciting potential shifts for the market. More inventory means buyers have more choices, less competition, and potentially more leverage in negotiations. It makes the dream of homeownership in Orange County feel a little more attainable for a wider range of people.

We might still see slightly lower inventory for desirable single-family homes in prime locations, but overall, the balance is likely to tip more in favor of buyers than it has in recent years.

Days on Market: Continued Equilibration

The trend of homes staying on the market a little longer is also likely to continue into 2026. This isn't a bad thing! It means the market is moving away from a frenzy and towards a more normalized pace.

For buyers, this means they can take their time, conduct thorough due diligence, and negotiate without feeling rushed. For sellers, it means pricing their home accurately from the start is even more important. The homes that are well-presented, priced competitively, and marketed effectively will still sell quickly, but the “hot commodity” desperation might fade.

Key Factors to Watch for in the 2026 Forecast:

Interest Rates: As I mentioned, this is the big one. Any significant shifts could alter the forecast.
Economic Stability: A strong local and national economy generally supports a healthy housing market. Job growth and consumer confidence are key.
New Construction: While it can be slow in Orange County, any increase in new housing developments could certainly impact supply.
Demographics: The ongoing needs and desires of Orange County's diverse population will always shape demand.

In essence, my forecast for the Orange County housing market in 2026 is one of predictability and opportunity. It's a market that’s likely to be less about speculation and more about finding the right fit for the long term. It feels like a market that's maturing, offering a more balanced and reasonable environment for both buyers and sellers. But, as always, real estate is local, and individual neighborhood trends can always have their own unique story!

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Home Prices Stall Across 6 Major Metros After Years of Gains

January 26, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

It's a question on many homeowners' minds and prospective buyers' lips: what's happening with home prices? For years, we've seen a rocket-fueled climb in housing costs across many parts of the country. But now, after that sustained surge, a pause has settled in across six major metropolitan areas. Home prices have essentially stalled nationwide, a significant shift from the dramatic gains we’ve become accustomed to.

Home Prices Stall Across 6 Major Metros After Years of Gains

This slowdown isn't exactly a shocker. Based on the data from Realtor.com, released January 23, 2026, cities like New York-Newark-Jersey City; Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA; Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY; Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN; and Columbus, OH, are showing prices that have held pretty steady over the past year. This indicates a market that’s recalibrating, not necessarily crashing.

The Big Picture: Why the Stall?

So, what’s behind this nationwide pause? Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com®, points to a classic economic dance between supply and demand. “Flat price growth usually means changes in demand and supply are in a stalemate,” he explained.

It really boils down to a few key factors that have been shaping our economy for a while now:

High Mortgage Rates: This is the elephant in the room for most buyers. When the cost of borrowing money goes up significantly, so does your monthly payment. This makes purchasing a home a lot less affordable, even if prices aren't actively falling.
Stubborn List Prices: Even though growth has stalled, we're not seeing widespread price drops. In many of these markets, list prices remain relatively high, meaning buyers still face a significant financial hurdle.
Economic Uncertainty: With inflation concerns and questions about future wage growth, people are understandably being more cautious with their money. Big financial decisions, like buying a home, often get put on the back burner when the economic outlook is cloudy. Consumer confidence plays a huge role here.
Low Demand, and Sometimes Low Supply: Krimmel also highlighted that a combination of these factors is contributing to lower buyer demand. In some areas, while demand is down, supply hasn't kept up either, leading to a standoff rather than drastic price shifts.

A Closer Look at the Stalled Housing Markets

Let's dig into some of these specific cities and what experts on the ground are seeing.

New York-Newark-Jersey City:
- Median List Price (December 2025): $749,939
- Median List Price (December 2024): $750,000
  As you can see, the change here is practically negligible. Nikki Beauchamp, an associate broker with Sotheby's International Realty in New York City, attributes this stability to the market's inherent nature. New York is a high-barrier, supply-constrained market. This means there aren't a ton of homes available, and entry is tough, which naturally cushions it from wild price swings. She also noted that homes in pristine, turnkey condition still command a premium, while those needing renovations are less attractive.
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC:
- Median List Price (December 2025): $422,516
- Median List Price (December 2024): $422,450
  Here again, we see a very, very minor difference. Kate Terrigno, broker at Corcoran HM Properties in Charlotte, describes this as a market that's “recalibrating and re-stabilizing rather than weakening.” Buyers have taken a breather, partly due to “inflation fatigue” and general uncertainty about what’s next economically. The good news? It feels less volatile, making it more predictable for buyers.
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA:
- Median List Price (December 2025): $400,000
- Median List Price (December 2024): $399,950
  Atlanta, a market that saw rapid growth in previous years, now shows a transition to a more balanced state. Bruce Ailion, a real estate professional and attorney with Re/Max Town & Country in Atlanta, explains that household incomes haven't kept pace with the combined cost of home price appreciation and financing costs. This has effectively reduced buyer purchasing power, leading to dampened demand at higher price points.
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY:
- Median List Price (December 2025): $249,950
- Median List Price (December 2024): $249,950
  Buffalo is a classic example of how low inventory can keep prices from falling. Colleen Collier, an associate real estate broker at Re/Max Plus in Buffalo, notes that the area is attracting new residents, including remote workers, who appreciate its affordability and four distinct seasons. This steady influx of interest, combined with limited homes for sale, is keeping prices firm.
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN:
- Median List Price (December 2025): $309,974
- Median List Price (December 2024): $309,959
  Indianapolis benefits from a strong job market, thanks to investments from large corporations. Mike Feldman, a real estate agent with Compass of Indiana, suggests that while interest rates have stabilized, economic uncertainty and inflation are making people more conservative. They're holding steady, not necessarily declining.
Columbus, OH:
- Median List Price (December 2025): $349,950
- Median List Price (December 2024): $349,450
  Columbus boasts a growing economy with major employers like Honda, Chase, and Nationwide, drawing people from other states. Aasiya Raza, of The Madosky Shaw Group at Coldwell Banker Realty in Columbus, points out that strong school systems also fuel demand. While more homes are coming onto the market, steady interest rates are preventing dramatic price swings.

What Does This Mean Moving Forward?

The data paints a clear picture: the red-hot seller’s market of years past has cooled. We're in a period of adjustment. High borrowing costs mean affordability remains a key concern for buyers, while sellers are finding that the days of multiple offers significantly above asking price are, at least for now, on hold in these specific markets.

For those considering buying or selling, understanding these localized dynamics is crucial. It's not a one-size-fits-all housing market, and what's happening in one city might be quite different from another, even within these six metros. As I see it, this period of stabilization could actually be a good thing for creating a more balanced and sustainable housing market in the long run.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates, Jan 26: 30-Year Fixed Rate Inches Up, Hovering at 6%

January 26, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

If you're looking to buy a home or refinance, today's mortgage rates on January 26, 2026, show a slight uptick in the 30-year fixed rate compared to last week, hovering just around the 6% mark, according to Zillow data. While this might not be the thrilling news some were hoping for, it's crucial to understand the forces behind these numbers to make informed decisions.

This current movement isn't a cause for panic, but it definitely underscores the dynamic nature of borrowing costs. Let's dive deeper into what’s happening with the numbers and, more importantly, what it means for you.

Today's Mortgage Rates, Jan 26: 30-Year Fixed Rate Inches Up, Hovering at 6%

Current National Average Mortgage Rates

Here's a snapshot of what borrowing costs look like as of January 26, 2026, based on Zillow's national averages:

Loan Type	Average Rate	APR (Approximate)
30-Year Fixed	6.00%	6.01%
20-Year Fixed	5.98%	N/A
15-Year Fixed	5.50%	5.49%
10-Year Fixed	5.62%	N/A
30-Year FHA	6.12%	N/A
30-Year VA	5.54%	N/A
5/1 ARM	6.15%	N/A
7/1 ARM	6.35%	N/A

It’s interesting to note the slight spread between the average rate and the APR (Annual Percentage Rate). The APR is a more comprehensive look at the cost of borrowing because it includes fees and other charges, so it’s always wise to compare APRs when shopping for a mortgage.

Tracking the Weekly Trends

Looking back just a week, we see a modest shift:

30-Year Fixed: This popular loan type has seen an increase of about 10 basis points (or 0.10%). It’s a small nudge, but it’s definitely in the upward direction.
15-Year Fixed: This shorter-term option has also seen a slight bump, moving up from where it was roughly a week ago. This aligns with the general upward pressure we're observing.

For context, earlier in January, we saw some rates dip below the 6% threshold, which certainly got a lot of attention and spurred action from potential buyers. This recent rise is a reminder that those lower rates can be fleeting.

Why the Slight Increase? Unpacking the Drivers

You might be wondering what’s causing this gentle upward creep in mortgage rates. It’s rarely a single factor; rather, it's a symphony of economic and global events. Based on my understanding and the data available, here are the key players:

Geopolitical Tensions: The world stage is never truly quiet, and right now, a few rumblings are making investors a bit nervous. Think about things like unexpected tariff threats or flare-ups in different regions – these create uncertainty. When investors feel uneasy, they often pull their money out of riskier assets and move into safer ones, like government bonds. This increased demand for bonds can push their prices up, and when bond prices go up, their yields (which influence mortgage rates) tend to go up too. It’s a complex chain reaction.
Anticipation of the Federal Reserve Meeting: The Federal Reserve (often called the “Fed”) is crucial to our economy. They have a big meeting coming up on January 27–28, 2026. Everyone is watching to see if they will cut interest rates. While most folks expect a small cut (about a quarter of a percent), the chatter from Fed Chairman Powell has been a bit cautious. If he hints that they need to be careful about cutting rates too fast, it can make lenders hesitate to lower their own mortgage rates. It's all about managing expectations and future moves.
Government Deficit and Spending: Our government borrows a lot of money to pay for its expenses. When there's a lot of new government debt being issued, they have to offer higher interest rates (yields) to convince people to buy those bonds. This increased borrowing cost for the government can, in turn, push up the borrowing costs for everyone else, including those looking for mortgages.
Mixed Economic Signals: The economy is like a patient with a few symptoms. We're seeing inflation slowly coming down, which is good. However, it's still a bit stubborn, especially for certain goods and services impacted by import costs. At the same time, recent reports show that our economy is growing stronger than some expected (with GDP figures in the 4.3%–4.4% range). When the economy is robust, it typically leads to higher interest rates because businesses are booming and there’s more demand for money.
A Surge in Buyer Demand: This is a big one! When rates dipped below 6% earlier this month, it was like a siren call for homebuyers. We saw a significant 14.1% jump in mortgage applications. High demand can actually cause lenders to become more selective or even raise rates to manage the sheer volume of applications and cover their operating costs. It’s a classic supply-and-demand situation.

What About the Future? The 2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast

So, where are we headed? Looking ahead to the rest of 2026, the general consensus among housing experts and financial institutions is that mortgage rates are expected to gradually decline. However, don't expect a freefall back to the super-low pandemic rates. Most predictions place the average 30-year fixed rate somewhere in the 6% to 6.4% range by the end of the year. Some forecasts even suggest a potential temporary dip to around 5.5%–5.8% sometime around the middle of the year.

Here’s a quick look at what some key players are saying:

Fannie Mae: They're predicting rates to sit around 6% for much of 2026, which they believe will make homes more affordable and boost sales.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Their outlook is a bit higher, with rates expected to stay in the 6.3%–6.4% range, but they note the potential for refinancing if rates dip below 6%.
National Association of Realtors (NAR): They also anticipate rates around the 6% mark, believing this level will help bring many buyers back into the market and significantly increase home sales.
Morgan Stanley: Their strategists see a potential for a temporary dip in rates to 5.5%–5.75% mid-year, but they think rates might climb again in the latter half of the year.
Bankrate / Curinos: They expect rates to “bounce around 6%” with a potential brief dip tied to Fed rate cuts and economic news. They estimate an average around 6.1% with a potential low of 5.5%.
Zillow: Their year-end forecast suggests rates will likely average above 6% but settle around 6% by the end of 2026, offering some much-needed relief for buyers.

As you can see, the general sentiment is a gradual tempering of rates, creating a more balanced market than we've seen in the recent past.

Final Thoughts

From my perspective, these current rates, while a slight increase from last week, are still within a range that many buyers can manage, especially with competitive local markets and potential for smart negotiation. The forecasts for the year ahead are generally positive, suggesting a path toward more affordability.

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Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 26, 2026: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 31 Basis Points

January 26, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

As of January 26, 2026, the average rate for a 30-year fixed refinance has jumped by 31 basis points, landing at 6.88%, according to Zillow. This significant uptick is a reminder that the mortgage market can shift quickly, impacting how much you pay each month.

It's been a bit of a rollercoaster with mortgage rates lately and this jump means that if you were considering refinancing into a 30-year loan, your borrowing costs just got a bit higher. It's a good thing we have Zillow to track these changes so precisely.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 26, 2026: 30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate Rises by 31 Basis Points

Let's break down what's happening with the different types of refinance rates today:

30-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: This is the big story. It's now at 6.88%, up from 6.57% yesterday. That's a pretty substantial move in just one day. Compared to the average rate from last week, it's also up, now sitting 24 basis points higher. This rate is what most homeowners lean on for its predictability.
15-Year Fixed Refinance Rate: Here's a bit of good news amidst the climb. The 15-year fixed refinance rate actually dipped slightly, from 5.70% down to 5.62%. This is a decrease of 8 basis points. For those who want to pay off their mortgage faster, this subtle drop is a welcome sign.
5-Year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM) Refinance Rate: This rate is holding steady at 6.92%. While ARMs can offer lower introductory rates, their stability often matters less when fixed rates are making bigger moves.

A Clearer Picture: Today's Refinance Rates At a Glance

Loan Type	Current Rate (Jan 26, 2026)	Daily Change (Basis Points)	Weekly Change (Basis Points)
30-Year Fixed	6.88%	+31	+24
15-Year Fixed	5.62%	-8	Data not provided
5-Year ARM	6.92%	0	Data not provided

The Impact of the 30-Year Rise: What It Means for Your Wallet

When mortgage rates move, especially by a significant amount like 31 basis points, it translates directly into higher costs for borrowers. Let's look at a concrete example. Imagine you're refinancing a $300,000 loan with a 30-year fixed term.

If your rate was 6.57%, your monthly payment for principal and interest would be around $1,910.
Now, with the rate at 6.88%, that same monthly payment jumps to about $1,970.

That's a difference of $60 more each month. Over a year, that's $720 out of your pocket. And think about the long game: over the full 30 years of the loan, this increase could cost you an extra $21,600 in interest. This is why even seemingly small shifts in basis points are so important for your financial planning. For homeowners looking to tap into lower rates, a sudden jump like this can be a real disappointment and a nudge to act fast if they still want to lock in a rate before further changes.

Why Are Rates Moving Today? The Bigger Economic Picture

So, what's driving this sudden leap in the 30-year refinance rate? It's rarely just one thing. Several economic factors are likely at play, and understanding them helps us make better sense of the situation:

Federal Reserve's Influence: The Federal Reserve plays a huge role in setting the tone for interest rates. While they don't directly set mortgage rates, their decisions on the federal funds rate and their overall monetary policy send ripples through the entire financial system. Any hints or actions from the Fed can cause markets to react, and today's move is likely a reflection of that.
Inflationary Concerns: Even though we've made progress, inflation is still a concern for the economy. Lenders price in the risk of inflation when they offer loans. If they expect inflation to remain higher than anticipated, they'll generally demand higher interest rates to ensure their returns keep pace.
Housing Market Demand and Supply: The housing market itself is a dynamic force. In many areas, demand remains strong, even with higher prices. When there's a lot of competition for homes, or when many homeowners are looking to refinance, it can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. We've seen a surge in refinance applications recently, which means there's a lot of activity in the mortgage market.
Investor Sentiment: Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are bought and sold by investors. Their demand for MBS influences the rates that lenders can offer. If investor confidence shifts, or if they demand higher yields, mortgage rates will follow suit.

It's crucial to remember that today's 6.88% rate for the 30-year fixed refinance, while higher than yesterday, is still significantly lower than the peaks we saw in late 2023, when rates were touching close to 8%. This historical context helps us appreciate that while we're seeing an increase now, the current rates are still more favorable than they were quite recently. This is a trend I've been watching: periods of rapid increase often follow periods of relative stability, and vice versa.

Refinance Activity: A Busy Start to 2026

It's interesting to look at how this rate environment plays out in terms of actual refinance demand. Based on recent data, it’s clear a lot of homeowners are actively looking to refinance:

Refinance applications have surged: For the week ending January 16, 2026, refinance applications shot up by an impressive 20%. This indicates a strong desire among homeowners to lower their monthly payments.
Year-over-year growth is huge: The Refinance Index is currently 183% higher than it was during the same week a year ago. That’s a massive jump, showing just how much more refinancing is happening now.
Refinancing dominates applications: Refinancing now makes up about 61.9% of all mortgage applications. This is up from 60.2% the previous week, showing its growing importance in the market.
Specific loan types are popular: Both Conventional and VA refinance applications have seen substantial increases, up 29% and 26% respectively.

This high level of refinance activity suggests many homeowners are taking advantage of rates that, despite yesterday's jump, are still better than what they might have locked in a couple of years ago.

What the Experts Say: Looking Ahead in 2026

While today’s news is a bit of a bump, the outlook for the rest of 2026 from forecasting experts suggests a period of relative stability, perhaps even a slight dip.

Fannie Mae: They predict that the 30-year fixed rate will hover around 6% for the majority of 2026 and even into 2027. This suggests that today's uptick might be a temporary blip rather than the start of a sustained upward trend.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA): Their projection is a bit higher, expecting an average of 6.4% for the 30-year fixed in 2026.
Morgan Stanley: They're forecasting a potential short-term dip to between 5.50% and 5.75% by mid-2026, followed by a possible rise again.

These projections offer some reassurance that drastic leaps in rates might not be the norm for the rest of the year, but it’s always wise to stay informed.

Key Takeaways From Today's Rate Report

To sum it all up, here are the most important points to remember from January 26, 2026:

The 30-year fixed refinance rate experienced a significant increase today, hitting 6.88%. This is up 31 basis points from yesterday and 24 basis points from last week’s average.
In contrast, the 15-year fixed refinance rate saw a slight decrease, now at 5.62%, offering a more attractive option for those who prefer a shorter loan term.
The 5-year ARM refinance rate remained stable at 6.92%.
It’s evident that even modest changes in rates can have a substantial impact on your monthly payments and the total interest you pay over the life of your loan. My advice? Always run the numbers to see how rate shifts affect your specific situation.
Despite today's rise, current rates are still noticeably lower than the peaks seen in late 2023. This context is vital for understanding where we stand in the broader market.

Summary on Today's Rates

Today, January 26, 2026, has brought more volatility to the mortgage market, with the cornerstone 30-year fixed refinance rate climbing notably. While the mixed performance of other loan types offers some options, the jump in the 30-year rate serves as a clear signal: staying vigilant and informed is more important than ever for homeowners, potential buyers, and anyone looking to refinance.

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What’s Roth Catch-Up Contribution 2026 for High Earners?

January 25, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

If you're a high earner aged 50 or older, get ready for a change in how you save for retirement starting in 2026. The new rules under the SECURE 2.0 Act will require that any “catch-up” contributions you make to your employer-sponsored retirement plan, like a 401(k) or 403(b), must be made into a Roth account. This means you'll be paying taxes on that money now, rather than getting a tax deduction today, but all the growth and qualified withdrawals in retirement will be completely tax-free.

As someone who spends a lot of time thinking about retirement savings and the intricacies of tax laws, I've seen a lot of changes. This particular shift, set to take effect in 2026, is a big one for a specific group of people: high earners who are also in their prime saving years as they approach traditional retirement age. It’s not just a minor tweak; it’s a fundamental change in how a portion of your retirement savings will be handled. Let me break down what this really means for you.

What's Roth Catch-Up Contribution 2026 for High Earners?

Understanding Catch-Up Contributions

Before we dive into the 2026 changes, let's quickly recap what catch-up contributions are all about. Think of them as a bonus savings opportunity. For anyone aged 50 and over, retirement plans allow you to contribute extra money beyond the standard annual limits. The idea is to help those who might have started saving later in life, or perhaps faced significant expenses like raising a family or paying off a mortgage, catch up and build a more robust nest egg before they stop working.

For 2026, the standard 401(k) deferral limit is set to increase to $24,500. If you're 50 or older, you can add an extra $8,000 as a general catch-up contribution, bringing your total potential contribution to $32,500. And SECURE 2.0 has also introduced a “super catch-up” provision for those aged 60 to 63, allowing an even higher contribution of $11,250 on top of the base limit, for a grand total of $35,750 in a 401(k)-style plan.

For individual retirement accounts (IRAs), the limits are different. In 2026, the standard limit will be $7,500, with a catch-up contribution of $1,100 for those 50 and older, making the maximum IRA contribution $8,600.

Who Qualifies as a “High Earner” Under the New Rule?

This is where the 2026 change gets specific. The Roth mandate doesn't apply to everyone. It targets “high earners,” defined by your prior-year FICA wages from your current employer. To be considered a high earner for the purpose of this rule, your FICA-taxable wages from that employer must have exceeded $150,000 in the previous calendar year.

So, for catch-up contributions made in 2026, the IRS will look at your FICA wages from 2025. If you earned more than $150,000 in FICA wages in 2025, then all your catch-up contributions in 2026, made to an employer-sponsored plan, must be directed to a Roth account.

Important Note: This threshold is indexed for inflation, so it might change slightly in future years, but for the initial implementation in 2026, $150,000 is the key number.

The Core Change: Mandatory Roth Catch-Ups

This is the heart of the matter. Starting in 2026, if you meet the high-earner criteria, you lose the option to make pre-tax catch-up contributions to your 401(k), 403(b), or governmental 457(b) plan.

Traditional (Pre-Tax) Contributions: You contribute money before taxes are taken out. This lowers your current taxable income, saving you money on your tax bill today. However, when you withdraw the money and its earnings in retirement, you'll pay income taxes on both.
Roth Contributions: You contribute money after taxes have been taken out. This means your current taxable income isn't lowered. But, the money grows tax-free, and qualified withdrawals in retirement are also completely tax-free.

The SECURE 2.0 Act is essentially saying to high earners: “We want you to pay taxes on this extra savings now, rather than deferring it.” This move is designed to generate more immediate tax revenue for the government.

Why the Shift to Roth? The Benefits and Trade-offs

From my perspective as someone analyzing these financial moves, there are clear upsides and downsides to this mandatory Roth approach.

Potential Benefits for High Earners:

Tax-Free Growth and Withdrawals: This is the biggest win. If you expect to be in the same or a higher tax bracket in retirement, or if you simply want certainty about your retirement income without worrying about future tax rates, Roth is fantastic. All your earnings and contributions come out tax-free, giving you a predictable stream of income.
No Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) on Rollover: While Roth 401(k)s do have RMDs, if you roll over your Roth 401(k) balance to a Roth IRA, those RMDs disappear. This gives you more control over your money in retirement and can even be a powerful estate planning tool.
Estate Planning: Heirs who inherit a Roth IRA (or a Roth 401(k) that's been rolled over) generally receive the assets tax-free, which is a significant advantage over inherited traditional accounts.
Tax Diversification: Having a mix of traditional (pre-tax) and Roth (after-tax) accounts in retirement is a smart strategy. It allows you to strategically withdraw funds to manage your tax bill year by year. For instance, you can tap into Roth funds when you anticipate being in a higher tax bracket for that year.
No Impact on Other Benefits: Roth contributions on their own don't influence your Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) in the same way pre-tax contributions do. This can be beneficial if you're navigating income-based phase-outs for other retirement savings vehicles or government benefits.

Potential Drawbacks and Trade-offs:

Loss of Immediate Tax Deduction: This is the flip side of the benefit. For someone in their peak earning years, who is likely in a high tax bracket, giving up an $8,000 pre-tax deduction can mean paying thousands of dollars more in taxes now. For someone in the 37% federal tax bracket, an $8,000 pre-tax catch-up contribution could have saved them close to $3,000 in taxes each year.
Increased Current Tax Liability: This immediate impact on your tax bill could be a strain on your cash flow, especially if your income fluctuates or if you're already managing many financial obligations.
Potential for Underpayment Penalties: If you don't adjust your tax withholding or estimated tax payments throughout the year to account for this increased tax liability from Roth catch-ups, you could face penalties. This is a detail I always emphasize to clients—planning ahead is crucial.
Plan Limitations: A significant catch here: If your employer's plan does not offer a Roth option, then you simply won't be able to make any catch-up contributions at all, starting in 2026. This is a crucial point for both employees and employers to be aware of.

My take on this trade-off is that it forces a different kind of planning. Instead of focusing solely on reducing today's tax bill, it nudges high earners to think more critically about their future tax situation and the long-term value of tax-free growth.

What If Your Plan Doesn't Have a Roth Option?

This is a critical detail that can’t be stressed enough. If your employer’s retirement plan doesn't include a Roth contribution option, you will be unable to make catch-up contributions from 2026 onwards if you meet the high-earner definition. This means you could miss out on potentially tens of thousands of dollars in extra savings over the years leading up to retirement.

What can you do?
- Advocate to your employer: Encourage them to add a Roth option to the plan. Many plans already offer this, but if yours doesn't, it's worth making your voice heard.
- Consider alternatives: If adding a Roth option isn't feasible for your employer, you'll need to look at other ways to save.

Alternative Savings Strategies for High Earners

Given the potential limitations and the mandatory Roth nature of catch-ups, high earners might need to explore other avenues to maximize their retirement savings.

Health Savings Accounts (HSAs): If you have a high-deductible health plan, an HSA is a triple-tax-advantaged account. Contributions are pre-tax (or deductible), earnings grow tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified medical expenses are tax-free. For 2026, the contribution limits are expected to be around $4,400 for self-only coverage and $8,750 for family coverage, with an additional $1,000 catch-up for those 55 and older. HSAs are incredibly powerful savings vehicles, especially for future healthcare costs and long-term investing.
Backdoor Roth IRAs: If your income is too high for direct Roth IRA contributions, the backdoor Roth IRA strategy is still available. This involves making a non-deductible contribution to a traditional IRA and then quickly converting it to a Roth IRA. This is a way to get money into a Roth IRA account, bypassing income limits. However, be mindful of the “pro-rata rule” if you hold existing pre-tax IRA balances, as it can affect the taxability of your conversion.
Taxable Brokerage Accounts: While not tax-advantaged in the same way, investing in a taxable brokerage account provides flexibility. You can invest in a wide range of assets, and while you'll pay taxes on dividends and capital gains, you can manage that through tax-loss harvesting and long-term investing strategies.

Looking at the Bigger Picture: What Does This Mean for Retirement Planning?

From my perspective, this move by the government signals a few things:

Urgency for Tax Projections: It highlights the increasing importance of accurately projecting your tax bracket in retirement. If you think you'll be in a lower bracket, the loss of the upfront deduction is more painful. If you anticipate higher taxes or higher income in retirement, the Roth benefit becomes more compelling.
Encouraging Tax Diversification: The government clearly wants more people to utilize Roth accounts. This mandate nudges high earners toward a more tax-diversified retirement portfolio, which is generally a sound strategy.
Revenue Generation: The primary driver for this rule is likely to boost government coffers by collecting taxes sooner rather than later.
Adaptability is Key: This change underscores the need for individuals to adapt their savings strategies as tax laws evolve. What worked yesterday might not be the optimal approach tomorrow.

2026 Catch-Up andIRA Limits at a Glance

To help you visualize the numbers for 2026, here's a quick summary:

Contribution Type	2026 Limit	Catch-Up (50+)	Super Catch-Up (60-63)	Roth Mandate for High Earners?
401(k)/403(b)/457(b)	$24,500	$8,000	$11,250	Yes, if prior-year wages > $150,000 (mandatory Roth)
Traditional/Roth IRA	$7,500	$1,100	N/A	No, IRA catch-ups are not subject to this wage threshold rule.
SIMPLE IRA	$17,000	$4,000	$5,250	Yes, similar rules apply based on FICA wages.
HSA (Self/Family)	$4,400/$8,750	$1,000 (55+)	N/A	N/A

Preparing for the Change: What Should You Do NOW?

The best time to prepare for this change is now.

Check Your Plan: Does your employer's retirement plan offer a Roth option? If not, start a conversation.
Analyze Your Wages: Look at your 2025 W-2 (or pay stubs). Did you earn over $150,000 in FICA wages? This will determine your eligibility for Roth catch-ups in 2026.
Model Your Tax Scenarios: Consider your expected tax situation in retirement. Will you be in a higher or lower bracket? This will help you decide if the Roth catch-up is truly a disadvantage or a smart long-term move.
Explore Alternatives: If your plan lacks Roth, or if you want to diversify further, research HSAs and the backdoor Roth IRA strategy.
Consult a Professional: Tax laws and retirement planning are complex. Working with a qualified financial advisor or tax professional can help you navigate these changes and create a personalized strategy.

The Roth catch-up contribution rule for high earners in 2026 is a significant shift, but with proactive planning, you can still optimize your retirement savings and set yourself up for financial success. It's about adapting to the new rules and making informed choices that align with your long-term goals.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates, January 25: Rates Remain Stable With No Major Swings

January 25, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

Let's talk about where mortgage rates stand today, January 25, 2026. The good news is that while there's been a slight uptick from last week, rates today remain comfortably below the daunting peaks. This means the market is offering a much more manageable environment for borrowers right now.

What I'm seeing today is a market that's finding its footing after a period of significant volatility. It's not a freefall, but it's certainly not the steep climb of yesteryear. This stability, even with minor daily fluctuations, offers a much-needed sense of predictability for anyone with homeownership dreams on their mind.

Today's Mortgage Rates, January 25: Rates Remain Stable With No Major Swings

A Snapshot of Current Mortgage Rates: January 25, 2026

To give you a clear picture, I’ve compiled the latest figures from Zillow for today, January 25, 2026. These numbers represent national averages, and your specific rate might vary based on your credit score, down payment, and the lender you choose.

Here’s a breakdown of what Zillow is reporting:

Loan Type	Interest Rate	APR
30-Year Fixed	5.99% – 6.00%	6.04%
15-Year Fixed	5.38% – 5.50%	5.52%
30-Year FHA	5.88%	6.51%
30-Year VA	6.00%	6.27%
20-Year Fixed	6.13%	6.34%
30-Year Jumbo	6.00%	6.18%
7/6 ARM	6.00%	6.43%
5/1 ARM	6.15%	6.49%

What this table tells me is that we have a solid range of options available. Whether you prefer the security of a fixed rate for the long haul or are considering an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) for potentially lower initial payments, there are choices to fit different financial strategies. The slight range in the 30-year fixed rate, for instance, is pretty typical and often depends on how much you put down and your creditworthiness.

Looking Back: How This Week Compares

It's always helpful to see how today's rates stack up against just a few days ago. Zillow indicates a slight upward movement from last week, which is worth noting:

30-Year Fixed: We've seen an increase to an average APR of 6.04%, which is up about 5 basis points (or 0.05%) from last week's 5.99%.
15-Year Fixed: Similarly, the 15-year fixed has seen a modest bump, now averaging 5.52% APR, up around 6 basis points from last week's 5.46%.

Now, to be clear, these are not dramatic swings. Think of it like water temperature – a few degrees’ difference might be noticeable, but it’s not a sudden plunge into an ice bath. However, for larger loan amounts, even these small shifts can impact your monthly payment over the life of the loan. It's a gentle reminder that while rates are good, they aren't static.

What's Driving These Numbers? Understanding the Market Forces

As an observer of economic trends, I can tell you that mortgage rates don't exist in a vacuum. They're influenced by a complex interplay of factors. Right now, we're seeing a market that's responding to several things:

Inflationary Pressures: While inflation has been cooling compared to its recent highs, any persistent signs of it can cause lenders to adjust rates upward. Bond markets, which are closely tied to mortgage rates, react to inflation expectations.
Federal Reserve Policy (and Expectations): The Fed's actions and pronouncements about future interest rate policy play a huge role. Even hints about potential policy shifts can cause rates to move. We’re in a phase where the market is watching closely for any signs of major strategy changes.
Bond Market Dynamics: Mortgage rates are often tied to the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury note. When bond yields rise, mortgage rates typically follow suit, and vice-versa. Recent shifts in the bond market have contributed to this week’s gentle upward tick.
Economic Growth: A strong economy can sometimes lead to higher borrowing costs, as demand for loans increases. Conversely, concerns about slowing growth might push rates down.

The fact that today's rates are hovering around the 6% mark for a 30-year fixed mortgage, and are still significantly lower than the nearly 8% we saw in late 2023, is a testament to these forces at play and the general easing of some of the more extreme economic pressures from the recent past.

The Real Impact on Your Wallet

It’s one thing to see percentages, but it’s another to see what that means for your monthly budget. Let’s run a quick example.

Imagine you're looking at a $300,000 mortgage.

At today's average rate of 6.04% APR: Your principal and interest payment would be roughly $1,800 to $1,820 per month.
Now, let's rewind to the peak of late 2023, around 8% APR: For the same $300,000 loan, your monthly payment would have been closer to $2,200.

That's a difference of nearly $400 per month! Over the 30 years of the loan, this translates into tens of thousands of dollars in savings. This stark comparison really underscores why staying informed about today's mortgage rates, even with minor fluctuations, is so crucial for making smart financial decisions. For buyers, this affordability difference can be the deciding factor in whether they can purchase their desired home. For homeowners considering refinancing, the savings can be substantial, freeing up cash for other goals.

Key Takeaways for Today, January 25, 2026

If you’re looking for the CliffsNotes version, here’s what you should remember:

Day-to-Day Stability: For the past 24 hours, mortgage rates have been pretty steady, which is always a good sign for planning.
Slight Week-Over-Week Increase: Be aware that rates have nudged up slightly compared to last week.
30-Year Fixed: The average APR is currently around 6.04%, a small increase from 5.99% last week.
15-Year Fixed: This option is now averaging 5.52% APR, up from 5.46% last week.
Still a Bargain Compared to Recent Past: The most critical point is that rates remain significantly lower than the nearly 8% highs of late 2023.
Opportunity Abounds: Both new homebuyers and those looking to refinance still have excellent opportunities to secure favorable loan terms.

I've been seeing a lot of discussion among industry professionals about the general trend in January 2026. The consensus is that we're experiencing a period of relative stability, with rates largely holding around the 6% mark. This is a much more predictable environment than we've had for a while.

What’s particularly interesting is the expert outlook. Many economists and financial analysts are predicting that rates might moderate, or even slightly decrease, in the first half of 2026, potentially dipping back into the high 5% range. However, they also strongly caution against trying to perfectly time the market. There are still too many moving parts and uncertainties in the global economy to make that a reliable strategy.

My Perspective on Today's Mortgage Market

From my vantage point, January 25, 2026, signifies a continued moment of opportunity in the mortgage market. The modest increase in rates from last week shouldn't overshadow the fact that we're still in a much better position than we were just a year or so ago.

For prospective homebuyers, this means that affordability, while tighter than during the pandemic lows, is certainly more accessible than it was during the peak rate periods. The current interest rate environment, coupled with what I'm hearing are some attractive seller concessions and incentives (like temporary rate buydowns), is drawing more buyers back into the fray. They're wisely taking advantage of improved buying power.

For existing homeowners considering a refinance, today's rates still offer a compelling reason to explore your options. If your current mortgage rate is significantly higher than what's available today, even a small reduction can lead to substantial long-term savings. It's about whether refinancing makes sense for your individual financial goals and how long you plan to stay in your home.

My advice to anyone in this market is to be proactive but also patient. Get pre-approved early in your home search, understand your borrowing power, and work with a lender you trust. Keep an eye on those weekly trends, but don't let minor daily shifts derail your long-term plans. The opportunities are here, but they require diligence and a clear understanding of your financial situation.

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Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 25: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 18 Basis Points

January 25, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage refinance crept up by 18 basis points to 6.70% today, January 25, 2026, as reported by Zillow. While this news might not be what homeowners hoping for a lower monthly payment want to hear, it's important to remember that this figure is still hovering around historical lows, offering a significant opportunity for many. The housing market is a dynamic beast, and these shifts, while seemingly small, can have real impacts on your wallet, so let's dive into what this means for you.

Today’s slight uptick in the most popular refinance option, the 30-year fixed, is a reminder that even when things seem stable, there are always forces at play pushing and pulling.

Mortgage Rates Today, Jan 25: 30-Year Refinance Rate Rises by 18 Basis Points

Let’s break down the numbers Zillow provided us for January 25, 2026:

Mortgage Type	Current Rate	Change from Last Week	Trend Summary
30-Year Fixed Refi	6.70%	Up 18 basis points	Modest increase, but still near historic lows.
15-Year Fixed Refi	5.62%	Unchanged	Holding steady, attractive for fast payoff and long-term interest savings.
5-Year ARM Refi	7.25%	Unchanged	Higher than fixed rates, reflecting the inherent risk of variable payments.

The 30-year fixed mortgage is king for a reason: it offers predictability. A payment that stays the same for three decades offers peace of mind, and that’s invaluable for budgeting. Even that 18-basis-point bump translates into more money paid over time, especially if you’re looking to refinance a large loan amount.

On the flip side, the 15-year fixed mortgage is a warrior for those who want to be mortgage-free sooner. It comes with higher monthly payments but significantly slashes the total interest you’ll pay over the life of the loan. Its stability this week suggests a consistent demand from borrowers who prioritize financial freedom over immediate monthly cost reduction.

The 5-year Adjustable-Rate Mortgage (ARM), or variable rate mortgage, remains higher than its fixed-rate cousins. This makes sense logically – lenders charge more for taking on the risk that interest rates might climb sharply. While an ARM might seem appealing with a lower initial rate, the potential for payments to jump later on is a big gamble for most homeowners.

What a Little Higher Rate Really Means for Your Wallet

Let’s put that 18-basis-point increase into very real numbers. Imagine you’re looking to refinance a $300,000 loan.

If the rate was 6.52% (last week's average), your monthly principal and interest payment would be roughly $1,902.
Now, at 6.70%, that payment nudges up to about $1,940.

That’s an extra $38 per month. Now, $38 might not sound like much when you’re buying groceries, but over a year, that’s $456 more you’re paying just for interest. Stretch that out over the entire 30 years? That’s an extra $13,600 – all because of a small increase in the interest rate. It truly highlights why watching these numbers and acting decisively can be so important.

Why Rates Move

This slight rise isn't out of the blue. It's a reflection of what's happening in the bigger economic picture. Think of inflation – when prices for goods and services creep up, the value of money decreases. To combat this, the Federal Reserve (often called “the Fed”) might signal that borrowing money should become a bit more expensive. This influences the bond market, and mortgage rates tend to follow the signals from long-term bonds, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield.

It’s also worth noting how much our market has shifted even from just a year or two ago. We saw a massive jump in refinance demand recently, with some reports showing over 183% increase compared to the previous year. Why? Because many homeowners refinanced when rates were considerably higher, say above 7% back in late 2024 or early 2025. They’re now looking to take advantage of today’s still-favorable rates.

We also saw a dip in mortgage rates to a three-year low of about 6.18% just in mid-January. This was partly due to some positive news about bond buying. However, like a bouncy ball, rates have sprung back up. Lingering inflation worries and potential international trade issues have investors a bit jittery, and that often pushes interest rates higher.

And what about the Fed itself? They're expected to keep their own short-term rates steady at their upcoming meeting. This means mortgage rates right now are more influenced by the ups and downs of the global economy and the bond market than by direct action from the Fed.

What to Watch and What to Do

From where I stand, the consensus among housing economists is a pretty steady outlook for the rest of 2026. Don't expect huge drops, but rather a “slow drift.”

Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) are generally forecasting the 30-year fixed rate to stick around 6.4% for most of the year, possibly dipping closer to 5.9% by late 2026.
The persistent issue of inflation, and its impact on the 10-year Treasury yield, is the main reason we're unlikely to see rates dramatically fall below 6% anytime soon.

So, what's a homeowner to do with this information?

Don't Panic, but Don't Delay Indefinitely: That 18-basis-point increase is a nudge, not a shove off a cliff. Rates are still good. However, if you have a solid plan for refinancing and have seen a benefit, now is still a smart time to look into it.
Understand Your Goals: Are you looking to lower your monthly payment? Pay off your mortgage faster? Tap into your home equity? Your specific goals will dictate whether this rate environment is right for you.
Shop Around! This is crucial. Rates can vary significantly between lenders. Get quotes from multiple banks and mortgage brokers.
Consider Locking if You're Ready: If you’ve found a rate that works for you and you're ready to proceed, ask your lender about locking in that rate. This protects you from further increases while your loan is being processed.

Key Takeaways for You

To sum it up, here are the important points from today:

The most popular option, the 30-year fixed refinance rate, is now at 6.70% after an 18-basis-point jump.
The 15-year fixed rate remains stable at 5.62%.
The 5-year ARM rate is also holding steady at 7.25%.
Even small rate changes have a big impact on your total cost over time.
If you’re planning to refinance, doing your homework and considering locking in a rate sooner rather than later is a smart move.

Final Thoughts

The mortgage market is always a work in progress. Today’s slight increase in the 30-year fixed refinance rate serves as a gentle reminder to stay informed and act strategically. While the 15-year fixed and 5-year ARM rates are holding steady, the overall trend suggests that locking in a fixed rate while they remain near historically favorable levels is a wise decision for many. The key is to balance immediate needs with long-term financial health. Keep an eye on these numbers, understand what drives them, and make the choices that best serve your financial future.

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Today’s Mortgage Rates, Jan 24: Rates Edge Higher, But 30-Year Fixed Holds Near 6%

January 24, 2026 by Marco Santarelli

Let's talk about where things stand with mortgage rates today, January 24, 2026. If you're thinking about buying a home or perhaps refinancing an existing mortgage, you'll be happy to hear that today's mortgage rates are still sitting pretty comfortably, very close to their lowest points over the last three years. While we’ve seen a tiny bump this week, the overall picture for January has been one of remarkable stability, with only the smallest waves of change day to day.

Today's Mortgage Rates, Jan 24: Rates Edge Higher, But 30-Year Fixed Holds Near 6%

Where We Stand Today: The Numbers

It’s always good to see the actual figures, right? Here’s a breakdown of the rates and Annual Percentage Rates (APR) you can find through Zillow Home Loans right now:

Product	Interest Rate	APR	Points (Cost)
30-Year Fixed	5.990%	6.158%	1.776
15-Year Fixed	5.375%	5.682%	1.974
30-Year FHA	5.875%	6.507%	1.192
30-Year VA	6.000%	6.271%	1.607
7/6 ARM	6.000%	6.430%	1.964
30-Year Jumbo	6.000%	6.176%	1.859

When you look at these numbers, remember that the “Interest Rate” is what the lender charges on the loan's principal. The “APR,” however, gives you a more complete picture because it includes certain fees and costs, like points, which are essentially upfront payments you make to the lender to lower your interest rate. That's why the APR is usually a bit higher than the interest rate. Always consider both when you're shopping around.

A Quick Peek Back: How This Week Added Up

So, what’s changed since last week? It’s not much, honestly, but it’s worth noting. Both the 30-year and 15-year fixed mortgage rates have nudged up slightly:

Product	Rate Today (Jan 24, 2026)	Rate Last Week (Jan 17, 2026)	Change
30-Year Fixed	5.99%	5.90%	Increased by 0.09%
15-Year Fixed	5.375%	5.36%	Increased by 0.015%

Now, a 0.09% increase might seem like pocket change, but I’ve been in this business long enough to know that even these small shifts can make a difference for folks trying to buy their dream home or trying to save some money by refinancing.

What Does That Tiny Jump Really Mean for Your Wallet?

Let’s paint a picture. Imagine you’re looking to refinance a $300,000 loan with a 30-year fixed mortgage.

If the rate was 5.90%, your principal and interest payment each month would be roughly $1,902.
Now, with the rate at 5.99%, that payment creeps up to about $1,911.

That's a difference of $9 each month. Over a year, it adds up to about $108 more. But stretch that out over the entire 30-year loan term, and you’re looking at paying over $3,200 more in interest. See? Even small percentage points can add up to significant sums over time. This is why it’s so critical to understand the long-term impact.

Why Do These Seemingly Small Changes Pack a Punch?

It’s all about affordability and overall loan cost. For someone taking out a significant mortgage, like $500,000 or more, even a tenth of a percent can mean hundreds of dollars more on their monthly payment and tens of thousands more over the life of the loan. If you’re on the fence about refinancing right now, it’s the perfect time to run the numbers and see if the savings still make sense, or if it's better to hold tight for another potential dip.

What’s Going On Under the Hood? Why the Fluctuations?

You might be wondering what causes these rates to move around, especially since the Federal Reserve’s actions don't directly control mortgage rates. It’s a bit like other markets – think stock prices or even gas prices – mortgage rates are influenced by supply and demand in the broader financial world.

Here’s a look at the key drivers that make today's mortgage rates the way they are:

The Bond Market: Mortgage rates are really closely tied to the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, especially the 10-year Treasury. When investors feel good about the economy, they might move their money out of bonds, causing yields to rise. Lenders then have to offer higher mortgage rates to compete for that investment money.
Demand for Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Most home loans get packaged together and sold as securities to investors. If there’s a lot of appetite for these MBS, lenders can afford to offer lower rates. If demand cools off, they have to raise rates to make them attractive again.
Economic News: Every report that comes out – like inflation numbers (CPI), job growth figures, or how fast the economy is growing (GDP) – gives us clues about the economy's health. Good economic news often means rates go up, and signs of a slowdown can mean they go down.
Global Events: Believe it or not, what's happening in other parts of the world can impact your mortgage rate here. If there’s political instability or a financial crisis somewhere else, investors often rush to buy U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe haven. This increased demand can push Treasury yields—and thus mortgage rates—down.
Lender Capacity: Sometimes, individual mortgage companies might adjust their rates simply because they're swamped with applications or have a specific volume they're trying to hit for the day or week.

What Experts Are Saying for 2026

Despite these daily tugs and pulls, the general outlook for today's mortgage rates and the rest of 2026 remains promising for borrowers. There’s a general consensus among many housing economists, including those at big names like Fannie Mae and Morgan Stanley, that we'll continue to see rates hover around the 6% mark, or possibly even a little lower, for much of the year. The Federal Reserve is also expected to keep its key interest rates steady for now, meaning mortgage rates will likely continue to find their direction from those other market forces we just discussed.

While there was some chatter about threatened tariffs causing a bit of market jitpidness, leading to this week's slight increase, the underlying trend shows resilience. It’s this mix of stability and slight movement that keeps things interesting, but still firmly in borrower-favorable territory.

In a Nutshell

So, as of January 24, 2026, you can still secure a mortgage with a rate that’s considered historically low. The slight uptick this week isn't a cause for alarm; it's just the market doing its usual dance. If you're in the market for a home or thinking about refinancing, it's definitely a smart time to be exploring your options and seeing how you can best take advantage of these favorable conditions.

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