Should You Refinance Your Mortgage Now in June 2025?

Thinking about your mortgage can feel like trying to predict the weather – a little bit science, a little bit guesswork. If you're like me, you're always looking for ways to save money and make your financial life a bit easier. That's why the question of whether to refinance your mortgage in June 2025 or wait is such a big one for many homeowners.

And here's the short answer right up front: for many homeowners with significantly higher interest rates right now, refinancing in June 2025 could be a smart move, offering immediate savings and potentially more financial flexibility. However, it’s not a decision to jump into without careful thought. Let's dig deeper into what's going on with mortgage rates, what the experts are saying, and how to figure out what's best for you.

Should You Refinance Your Mortgage in June 2025?

Understanding Where Mortgage Rates Stand in June 2025

As we look at the mortgage market in early June 2025, the numbers tell an interesting story. According to sources like Freddie Mac, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is hovering around 6.85% to 6.97%. Other financial news outlets, such as Bankrate and Investopedia, are reporting similar figures.

To put this into perspective, we've seen quite a bit of movement in mortgage rates recently. Remember back in late 2023 when rates peaked above 8%? The current rates are definitely better than that. And while they aren't the rock-bottom rates we saw in late 2024 (around 5.89%), they still present a potential opportunity for savings for many.

Here’s a quick look at some of the average rates you might be seeing:

• 30-Year Fixed: 6.85% – 6.97%
• 15-Year Fixed: 5.90% – 6.16%
• 5/1 ARM: Around 6.17%

My take: If you're currently locked into a mortgage rate that's significantly higher than these averages – say, north of 7% – then the potential for a lower monthly payment and significant long-term interest savings by refinancing now is definitely worth exploring.

What the Future Might Hold: Mortgage Rate Predictions for the Rest of 2025

Trying to predict the future is always tricky, especially when it comes to something as influenced by so many factors as mortgage rates. We’re talking about inflation, the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, the overall health of the economy, and even global events.

However, some experts are willing to put their predictions out there. For instance:

• Fannie Mae is projecting that 30-year fixed rates could end 2025 around 6.1%.
• The National Association of Realtors anticipates an average of 6.4% for 2025, with a further dip to 6.1% by 2026.
• Realtor.com is also forecasting an average of 6.3% in 2025, with a slight decrease to 6.2% by the end of the year.

On the other hand, some analysts at places like HousingWire caution that if inflation remains stubborn or if new economic policies drive up costs, we could even see rates stay elevated or potentially climb back above 7%.

Important Factors Influencing These Predictions:

• Inflation: If prices keep rising, the Federal Reserve might be hesitant to lower interest rates, which could keep mortgage rates higher.
• Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed's decision in May 2025 to keep the federal funds rate steady suggests a cautious approach. Any future rate cuts (some anticipate them in July or later, according to Forbes Advisor) could lead to lower mortgage rates.
• Economic Growth: A strong economy can sometimes put upward pressure on interest rates, while a slowing economy might lead to lower rates as a way to stimulate borrowing.

My perspective: While the forecasts generally lean towards slightly lower rates in the second half of 2025, there's no guarantee. Waiting for a potential dip comes with the risk that rates might not fall as much as predicted, or they could even go up. It's a bit of a gamble.

Key Questions to Ask Yourself Before Refinancing

Deciding whether to refinance now or wait isn't just about looking at the current and predicted rates. It's deeply personal and depends on your unique financial situation and goals. Here are some crucial questions I always advise people to consider:

1. How Does My Current Mortgage Rate Compare?This is the most obvious starting point. If your existing interest rate is significantly higher than the current average (say, a full percentage point or more), the potential for savings is substantial.
   • Example: Let's say you have a $300,000 mortgage with a 7% interest rate (30-year term). Your monthly payment is roughly $1,995.80. Refinancing to a 6.85% rate would bring that down to around $1,965.75, saving you about $30 per month. If you could snag a 6.5% rate, your payment would be closer to $1,929.68, saving you over $66 each month.

   My advice: Don't underestimate even a seemingly small rate reduction. Over the life of a 30-year loan, even a quarter of a percent can add up to significant savings.

2. What Will the Closing Costs Be, and What's My Break-Even Point?Refinancing isn't free. You'll encounter closing costs, which can typically range from 2% to 6% of your total loan amount, according to The Mortgage Reports. For a $300,000 loan, that could be anywhere from $6,000 to $18,000. These costs cover things like:
   • Appraisal fees
   • Title insurance
   • Lender origination fees

   To figure out if refinancing makes financial sense for you, you need to calculate your break-even point. This is the amount of time it will take for your monthly savings to offset the upfront closing costs.

   • Formula: Total Closing Costs ÷ Monthly Savings = Break-Even Point (in months)
   • Scenario 1 Revisited: If your closing costs are $9,000 and you save $30.05 per month (going from 7% to 6.85%), your break-even point is about 300 months, or 25 years. For most people, that's too long to wait to recoup the costs.
   • Scenario 2 Revisited: If your closing costs are $6,000 and you save $66.12 per month (going from 7% to 6.5%), your break-even point is roughly 91 months, or about 7.6 years. If you plan to stay in your home longer than that, refinancing could be a good move.

   My experience: I always tell people to get a detailed breakdown of all closing costs upfront and to do this calculation honestly based on how long they realistically plan to stay in the home.

3. How Long Do I Plan to Stay in My Home?As the break-even analysis shows, your timeline is crucial. If you're planning to move in a year or two, the upfront costs of refinancing might outweigh any potential savings from a lower interest rate. Refinancing is generally most beneficial for homeowners who plan to stay in their homes for several years past the break-even point.
4. What's My Credit Score and How Much Home Equity Do I Have?
   • Credit Score: A higher credit score typically means you'll qualify for better interest rates. Lenders generally reserve their best offers for borrowers with scores above 740.
   • Home Equity: Having at least 20% equity in your home is usually needed to avoid paying private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you have a conventional loan. If you're currently paying PMI, refinancing could be an opportunity to eliminate it if your home's value has increased or you've paid down enough of your mortgage, according to Freddie Mac. This can add significantly to your monthly savings.
5. Are There Other Financial Goals I Could Achieve Through Refinancing?Sometimes, refinancing isn't just about getting a lower interest rate. It can be a tool to achieve other financial goals:
   • Switching from an ARM to a Fixed-Rate Mortgage: If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), refinancing to a fixed-rate loan can provide more predictable monthly payments and protect you from potential interest rate increases down the road.
   • Debt Consolidation (Cash-Out Refinance): You could potentially refinance for a larger loan amount than what you currently owe and use the extra cash to pay off high-interest debt, like credit cards or personal loans. However, this increases your mortgage balance and the total interest you'll pay over the life of the loan, so weigh this carefully.
   • Shortening Your Loan Term: Refinancing from a 30-year mortgage to a 15-year mortgage means you'll pay off your loan faster and pay less interest overall. However, your monthly payments will be higher.
6. How Stable Are My Personal Finances?Refinancing requires going through the mortgage application process again. Lenders will want to see that you have a stable income, manageable debt, and a good credit history. Make sure your financial house is in order before you apply.

When Refinancing in June 2025 Might Be a Good Idea for You

Based on the current situation and the factors we've discussed, refinancing your mortgage in June 2025 could be a smart move if:

• Your current interest rate is noticeably higher than the current average of around 6.85%–6.97%.
• You plan to stay in your home long enough to recoup the closing costs through your monthly savings.
• You have sufficient home equity to eliminate PMI or achieve other financial goals like switching to a fixed-rate loan.

When Waiting Might Be the More Prudent Choice

On the other hand, waiting might be a better strategy if:

• Your current mortgage rate is already close to or even below the current market rates. The savings might be minimal and not worth the cost of refinancing.
• You genuinely believe and are comfortable with the risk that mortgage rates will drop significantly in the latter half of 2025. However, remember that this is not guaranteed.
• You are planning to sell your home in the near future. You might not stay long enough to break even on the refinancing costs.

Other Important Things to Keep in Mind

• Tax Deductibility of Mortgage Interest: Remember that mortgage interest might be tax-deductible if you itemize deductions, but this depends on your individual tax situation. It's always a good idea to consult with a tax professional to understand any potential benefits, as NerdWallet points out.
• “No-Cost” Refinancing: Be cautious of offers for “no-cost” refinancing. Often, the closing costs are simply rolled into a higher interest rate, which can actually cost you more in the long run. Always scrutinize the terms and compare them to offers with transparent fees. The Mortgage Reports has good resources on this.
• Market Volatility: Keep in mind that economic conditions can change quickly. Unexpected events could cause mortgage rates to fluctuate unpredictably, making the optimal timing for refinancing a moving target.

Making the Decision That's Right for You

Ultimately, the decision of whether to refinance your mortgage in June 2025 or wait is a personal one. There's no one-size-fits-all answer. I encourage you to:

• Use an online mortgage calculator (there are many free ones available) to estimate potential monthly payments and savings based on current rates.
• Get personalized quotes from several different lenders to understand the closing costs involved and the interest rates you qualify for based on your credit score and financial situation.
• Carefully calculate your break-even point.
• Think honestly about your long-term financial goals and how refinancing might help you achieve them.
• Don't hesitate to consult with a trusted mortgage professional who can provide personalized advice based on your specific circumstances.

By taking the time to do your research and carefully consider your options, you can make an informed decision that will put you in the best financial position moving forward.